Commodity Conversations News Monitor

The Russian government will impose an export quota of 1.5 mln mt for sunflower oil and 700,000 mt for soymeal from 15th April to 31st August 2022.  It will impose a ban on the export of sunflower and rapeseed seeds from 1st April to 31st August 2022.

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s President from 2008 to 2012 and now deputy secretary of the country’s security council said, “We will only be supplying food and agriculture products to our friends. Fortunately, we have plenty of them, and they are not in Europe or North America at all.” He added that the “priority in the food supply is Russia’s domestic market and price control within it.”

Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reports that, as of 1st April, the country’s farmers had planted 603,000 hectares, up from around 400,000 at the same time last year. It amounts to just under 4.5 per cent of the projected total area for main spring crops, which the ministry estimates at 13.4 million hectares, 3.5 million hectares less than last year.

APK-Inform estimates that Ukraine’s grain harvest could fall by 55 per cent to 38.9 mln mt in 2022 due to a sharp decrease in sowing and harvesting areas. The consultancy estimates wheat production at 14.865 mln mt, corn at 18.516 mln mt, and barley at 4.577 mln mt. It estimates sunflower production at 9.178 mln mt, down 45 per cent from last year. Fastmarkets looks at the various production scenarios here.

The head of the World Bank warned that Ukraine will need help to get fertiliser and seeds once Russia’s invasion is over. He also called for governments in advanced economies to reduce subsidies on biofuels and instead focus on targeting support to the poor.

ITC, India’s largest wheat exporter, expects India to export seven mln mt of wheat in FY 2022, up from 2.1 mln mt in FY 2021. The company expects FY 2023 exports to reach 21 mln mt. The government projects FY 2023 wheat exports to be around 12-15 million tonnes.

A delegation from Egypt is visiting India to facilitate wheat imports. The USDA estimates that Egypt’s wheat imports could fall to 11 million mt in the season that begins in July, the lowest in nine years. The agency also reduced its estimate for the current year to 12 million mt.

Wheat and corn prices continued their rollercoaster ride last week as hopes rose and then faded that Russia and Ukraine would reach a peace agreement.

China sold 546,015 mt of wheat at an auction of its state reserves on 23rd March at an average selling price of 2,884 yuan ($453.05) per tonne.

The German farm association DBV has called for temporary adjustments to the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy to allow farmers to plant on fallow land. It also called for setting up national fertiliser reserves.

Two US senators have asked the US Department of Agriculture to allow farmers to plant crops on acres enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). The USDA is opposed to the idea.

The USDA expects farmers to plant more soybeans than corn for just the third time ever. The agency predicts planted area at 89.5 million acres of corn this season, down from 93.4 million last season. It expects soybean sowings to rise to a record 91 million acres, compared to industry estimates of 88.9 million. Wheat acres are expected to rise only 1 per cent.

High fertiliser prices are driving this switch to soybeans, with prices up between 50 and 125 per cent compared to a year ago.  The DAP Fertilizer Price Index hit a record high last week of $1,014/mt. Prices for nitrogen fertiliser ammonia in Tampa surged 43 per cent to $1,625/mt.

The US administration is considering temporarily removing restrictions on summer sales of E15 gasoline blends to lower fuel costs for motorists. Ethanol is currently cheaper than gasoline. The Counter has an excellent long-read on the food versus fuel debate, arguing that the war in Ukraine may mean we have to make the impossible choice between affordable food and greener fuel earlier than we had thought.

Food processing companies are replacing sunflower oil with palm, soybean, and rapeseed oil. The Jakarta Post writes that European consumers are dampening their objections to palm oil as sunflower oil prices rise.

The supermarket chain Iceland will temporarily use palm oil in its own-label food due to the high price of sunflower oil. Iceland committed to eliminating palm oil from its products in 2018. The company’s CEO said he is making the shift with “huge regret and would use sustainable palm oil as “a last resort and a strictly temporary measure.”

High vegetable oil prices are resulting in demand destruction, with food processors and restaurants switching from fried to steamed food.

But high prices are destroying demand not just for vegetable oil. An index tracking Mexican avocado prices is up 81 per cent this year to 760 pesos ($38) per 9-kilogram box, the highest since 1998.  A slice of pizza in New York now costs more than a subway ride for the first time since the 1980s.

Food prices are rising fast in Russia. Most of the ingredients needed to make borscht saw double-digit price increases in a single week, with onions soaring by more than 18 per cent and cabbage by nearly 16 per cent.

A study published in Nature Food raises concerns over the ability of Southeast Asia to retain its title as a major rice supplier to the world. Indonesia and the Philippines are already struggling to produce enough rice for their own needs.

Brazil’s largest coffee exporter sees its arabica-bean shipments rising to a record this year as the logistic snarls that hampered flows last year ease. The cooperative Cooxupe expects to increase exports by 20 per cent to 5.9 million bags in 2022 versus 4.9 million bags in 2021. The cooperative expects a similar harvest as last year but plans to raise shipments using stockpiles and third-party coffee.

In environmental news, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released its 6th report with recommendations on how the agricultural sector could adapt.

The EU has “pressed the pause button” on its sustainable agricultural policy, the Farm to Fork strategy, to ensure that food security is “guaranteed for the European neighbourhood” during the war. However, the EU’s long-term ambition for the sector remains unchanged.

The NGO Reporter Brasil claims that McDonald’s is unknowingly buying beef from illegally cleared ranches in the Pantanal and the Amazon. It says that livestock is shuffled between farms to hide their true origin.

Maersk has warned that the semi-lockdown in Shanghai will increase transport costs and delay shipments.

Finally, in company news, Bloomberg writes how Sucden’s main shareholder is transferring shares to his sons as he passes the company on to a third generation.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

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A conversation with Jim Roemer

Could you please tell me a little about yourself and your company Best Weather Inc?

The weather has fascinated me since I was a boy growing up in New Jersey. I studied at a small college in Vermont, where my professor started the Weather Channel. I had long hair, and my professor felt that my hippy look – combined with my strong New Jersey accent – would limit my TV career. He suggested I do something else.

In 1982, I drove my beat-up VW bus 2,000 miles to Iowa, where I worked for many years for a small firm called Freese-Notis Weather. I joined the company knowing nothing about farming, but by the time I left ten to fifteen years later, I had the equivalent of a PhD in agriculture! While there, we built up their commodity advisory business with significant agricultural and food companies as clients. I learned about the importance of weather in the commodity sector.

I intended to return to school to study agricultural meteorology but decided to start managing some discretionary money, trading in the markets for clients. I didn’t have the personality for it and couldn’t handle the stress. I earned enough to send my sister through law school but decided that my real forte was in client advisory. I started Best Weather Inc in 1999 and became chief meteorologist for Blenheim Capital Management and other hedge funds.

In recent years, I have shifted focus to smaller clients – particularly in the farming community – and launched a couple of newsletters with trade recommendations. In addition to the weather, I look at climate change and produce long-range forecasts on yields etc.

They say that weather is the most critical driver of agricultural commodities, but politics currently has a firm grip on the steering wheel. Is the weather going to soon get back into the driving seat?

The weather has taken a bit of a back seat since the Russians invaded Ukraine, but agricultural commodity prices were already rising long before the war. There are some serious weather concerns out there.

South America has seen their worst drought in 35 years, which has significantly impacted soybean prices. It was too hot and dry in December and January, and although the situation is improving, it is a little late for the soybean crop. Soybeans pollinate and develop from December through February in South America. Recent rains may even negatively impact yields if they delay or slow the  Argentina grain harvest.  A wet spring in the U.S. could also delay Midwest corn and soybean planting for the next crop.

Last year, much of central and eastern Russia saw one of its worst droughts in 15-20 years.

Drought also hit the northern US plains and parts of Canada. We could see an easing of the drought in the Western Plains this year, but the moisture deficit is still severe from Colorado to West Texas and the Southwest. Water levels in the Colorado River have fallen significantly over the past few years.

China had a dry winter, but we expect to see more moisture during the April / July period. It could improve things pre-harvest.

Flooding in central and eastern Australia impacted their wheat harvest, but overall, this moisture is probably beneficial for Australian agriculture. The only concern is the far southwestern parts of the country.

Reading between the lines, you sound bullish corn and beans and bearish wheat?

As you said, politics and not weather currently drive the markets. Wheat depends on the Ukraine war, and that is tough to predict.

Also, wheat is grown in five of six countries, and you must get the weather right in all of them to get the market right. It is not easy to do.

The developing La Nina could be beneficial to many crops and take some of the sting from food inflation. Last year we had a whole series of weather problems. We are expecting fewer this year.

Compared to last year, I am more optimistic about most agricultural commodity yields for this harvest. Things could change going into the Northern Hemisphere summer, but for the moment, I am more bearish than bullish on the agricultural complex. Politics aside.

What about coffee?

Last year, Brazil’s coffee areas had their worst freeze in thirty years. Coming on top of the drought, coffee prices doubled.

There was also a drought in NE Brazil. Part of that might result from deforestation. It is hard to quantify the effect that deforestation has on local weather. Still, the data suggest that deforestation leads to more frequent and more severe droughts in northern Brazil.

La Nina could bring wet weather to Colombia and may delay the coffee harvest, negatively impacting coffee production. While prospects for Brazilian coffee production are improving, I would flag Colombia as a risk. However, I am bearish on coffee longer-term and have advised my Weather Wealth newsletter clients about selling call options.

I hadn’t thought of the effect of deforestation on local weather.

It is not just local weather. The smog from the Amazon fires goes into the stratosphere and can change the weather thousands of miles away.

To what extent is climate change already affecting the weather?

Climate change is undoubtedly making it harder to predict the weather. You may see variables coming together as in the past, but climate change changes how those factors play out.

We can put the pieces of the puzzle together and say, ah, this looks like 1978 or 1964, or whenever, but because of climate change and the warming oceans, you must adjust your predictions. It is not easy. Sometimes warming oceans can create colder conditions like last year’s Texas freeze. There are many variables.

I have an in house weather software program called climatepredict that looks at historical climatic variables, adjusts them for climate change with predictions sometimes months in advance.

Are you an optimist or a pessimist regarding climate change’s effect on agricultural production and yields?

Climate change leads to more frequent extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, freezes etc. It makes it harder for farmers to produce the food that we need.

Global warming is shifting the agricultural belt further north in the northern hemisphere, bringing new areas into production. Against that, hot and dry conditions further south make it more challenging for farmers in some developing countries.

But remember, there will be a lot of fluctuations from year to year, and the “normal” is made of extremes. Over the next 20-30 years, climate change will exaggerate those extremes, resulting in record crops in some areas and crop failures in others.

Which crops are the most vulnerable to climate change?

That is a tricky question, but the first would be coffee. The coffee belt is situated around the equator and is vulnerable to heat and moisture stress.

Many of the world’s wheat areas are susceptible to insufficient moisture. We saw this last year, and it may be a feature going forward.

Cotton and almonds are also susceptible to droughts. We could see significant variations in production from one year to the next, depending on moisture levels.

Luckily, grapes like dry weather – so wine production could benefit from global warming. There is some good news, at least!

What about cocoa?

Interestingly, warming oceans in the Gulf of Guinea and to the south of West Africa tend to correlate with normal to above-normal rainfall in West Africa. To this extent, warming oceans could benefit West African cocoa yields.

Any other thoughts?

Yes, two.

First, we must find new technologies such as carbon capture to fight climate change. The decarbonization of the global economy presents enormous opportunities for investors in the renewable energy space.

Second, weather and politics are the two most significant drivers of agricultural commodity prices, and everyone in the markets needs a good weather service!

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

Commodity Conversations News Monitor

Ukraine’s agriculture minister has said Ukraine’s ability to export grains was getting worse by the day and would only improve if the war with Russia ended. The country faces a possible grain revenue loss of $6 billion as the blockade of its ports prevents it from shipping wheat and corn earmarked for export by June. Unfortunately, damage to port facilities may mean that it will take a long time before shipments recover.

The fighting could lead to Ukraine planting only half of its usual sunflower crop.  Some analysts expect the country to sow 3.5 to 4 million hectares of the oilseed this spring, down from 6.8 million last year. Others are even more pessimistic.

US farmers have asked the USDA to allow them to plant on 4 million acres of “prime farmland” currently enrolled in the Farm Service Agency’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to help compensate for the loss of Ukrainian corn, wheat and sunflower oil.

The EU has proposed a 1.5-billion-euro funding package for farmers to plant crops on almost 4 million hectares of fallow land. Ireland’s government has already approved a payment of €400 per hectare to encourage farmers to grow barley, wheat, and oats. Meanwhile, an environmental lobby group has called for the EU to suspend its mandates for crop-based biofuels.

The European Commission has delayed the publication of its proposals on sustainable farming as the Ukraine crisis does not allow the “political space” for a proper discussion now.

The head of the WTO has warned countries against restricting food exports, arguing that it will only exacerbate the situation. She said that countries with surplus vegetable oils and grains stocks should release them on world markets.

When Vietnam, India, China, and Cambodia imposed export bans on rice in 2008, prices soared to about $1,100 per tonne from about $480. Rice currently trades at about $405 per tonne, down from $410 before Russia invaded Ukraine. Bloomberg argues that rice prices need to stay where they are if the world is to avoid a full-blown food emergency.

India could limit sugar exports to 8 million tonnes this season to prevent a surge in domestic prices. Mills have so far signed contracts to export 7 million tonnes.

China’s agriculture minister has said that “China faces big difficulties in food production because of the unusual floods last autumn.”

Nestle will stop selling a wide range of brands in Russia after the Ukrainian President criticised the company. Nestlé said that the products make up the “vast majority of volume and sales” Russia. The FT writes that the war in Ukraine presents Nestlé with some difficult choices. The Minnesota Reformer feels that “Cargill should pull out of Russia.”

Spiking commodity prices and subsequent margin calls leave some trading firms short of liquidity and searching for additional financing. At last week’s FT Commodity Conference, traders warned that financial stress could lead to consolidation in the sector.

In an article on rising fertiliser prices, the FT calls for a reduction in financial speculation in commodities, arguing that derivatives trading plays a significant role in food and fuel inflation. However, in this article on the merits of investing in agricultural commodities, the newspaper writes that after the last grain price surge in 2007-8, a report from the FAO found: “Available empirical evidence does not support claims that non-commercial traders have increased the volatility of grain prices.”

The CEO of Yara, a major Norwegian fertiliser producer, told the WSJ, “We will have a food crisis. It’s a question of how large.” Brazilian farmers have been caught off guard by soaring fertiliser prices, with only 28 per cent of their needs for the second half of this year bought by the end of February.

The world’s small scale coffee farmers are already facing a “crisis” because of the fertiliser shortage. Meanwhile, a container shortage is leading some Brazilian coffee producers to export their beans in bags in break-bulk vessels.

Nigeria’s Dangote Group has opened a $2.5 billion fertiliser plant at the Lekki Free Zone in Lagos State. The plant is designed to produce 3 million tonnes of urea per year and supply all the major markets in sub-Saharan Africa. The company will also export to Brazil, the US, India, and Mexico.

Olam Group has agreed to sell 35.4 per cent of Olam Agri Holdings to Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Co. (SALIC) for $1.24 billion. The deal values Olam Agri at $3.5 billion.

ADQ, an Abu Dhabi wealth fund, is acquiring Egypt state-held stakes in Abou Kir Fertilizers & Chemical Industries, Misr Fertilizers Production Co. and Alexandria Container & Cargo Handling Co. as part of a roughly $2 billion investment in the country.

Qatar and the Gates Foundation will invest up to $200 million over the next two years to help farmers adapt to climate change. Recent climate models warn that climate change will result in a dramatic drop in agricultural yields.

Unilever is piloting Green Token, SAP blockchain technology, to increase transparency in their palm oil supply chain. The company has already used the technology to source 188,000 tonnes of palm oil from Indonesia.

Finally, this writer argues that we should stop growing wheat and eat beef instead. (Well, everyone is entitled to their opinion.)

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

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Commodity Conversations News Monitor

The UN has warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could trigger global famine, as Moscow’s Black Sea blockade delays crucial grain exports, stoking fears of a deepening hunger crisis in countries such as Yemen and Ethiopia.

The crisis is already leading to panic buying in Europe, with shoppers emptying shelves of pasta and flour.

Prices of unsubsidised bread in Egypt have increased by 25 per cent in the last three weeks, provoking hunger and fears of social unrest. Wheat shortages led to unrest in 2008 when the leading chant of the uprising was “Bread, freedom and social justice”.

India hopes to fill some of the global wheat shortage. Exports increased to 6.12 million tonnes last year from 1.12 million tonnes a year earlier. The government recently introduced incentives that could result in 10 million tonnes of wheat exported this season.

The surge in wheat and corn prices is boosting demand for low-grade rice for animal feed in Asia. Chinese buyers are looking to buy extra volumes of broken rice to fatten hogs and other animals. China is meanwhile ramping up corn purchases from the US. China’s Global Times quotes Chinese experts saying that the country’s domestic supply of soybeans is guaranteed despite the events in the international market. The USDA, meanwhile, estimates that China will import a record 100 mln mt of soybeans in 2022/23.

Russia has temporarily banned grain exports to ex-Soviet countries until the end of June – and most sugar exports until the end of August – but will keep providing special export licences to traders within its current quota. The country still has 6 million to 6.5 mln mt of wheat to export under the quota, and the various announcements caused some confusion in the market.

The Russian invasion leaves Ukraine facing its most challenging planting campaign in history, although farmers in the west of the country still hope to increase planted area. Ukraine’s agriculture exporters are turning to barter after multinational traders evacuated their staff and stopped making payments.

Argentina has halted the registration of export sales of soy oil and meal ahead of a likely increase in export taxes.

Indonesia has removed restrictions on palm oil export volumes but has raised the maximum export levy to $375 a tonne, up from $175 per tonne previously.

Fertiliser prices continue to surge, with the Green Markets North American Fertilizer Index hitting a new high. Prices for urea in New Orleans also reached record levels while an index for potash in Brazil rocketed a record 34 per cent.

The massive fertiliser rally has created a rift between the world’s agricultural superpowers over whether Russian supplies should be sanctioned. Brazil argues for keeping crop nutrients sanction-free, while the US prefers increasing the pressure on Russia. Russia accounted for almost a fifth of the world’s fertiliser exports in 2021.

India is boosting fertiliser imports from Canada and Israel to ensure supplies. The country’s fertiliser minister told Reuters, “We need about 30 mln mt of fertilisers, and arrangements are in place.”

An editorial in the Bangkok Post calls for Thailand’s government to reduce its fertiliser dependence and shift to organic farming.

The Canadian fertiliser company Nutrien will boost potash production by about one mln mt in 2022 to 15 mln mt, with most of the additional volume coming in the second half of the year. The company said it couldn’t produce more than that in 2022 — even if the market needed it.

Bayer, a leading seed and crop treatment supplier is considering halting the sale of farming inputs to Russia. The company has already supplied the country for this year.

A new paper argues that parts of the American West may be entering a “perpetual drought.” However, a wetter than usual spring in the northern US Plains and Canadian Prairies could help the wheat crop there. The lingering La Nina may prolong and exacerbate the drought in the US Southern Plains, where the country’s hard red winter wheat is grown. Some 60 per cent of the region is in the grips of drought.

After Europe’s energy traders appealed to governments for financial assistance, Bloomberg has run a series of articles wondering whether rising commodity prices will lead to a financial meltdown. The agency asks whether commodity traders are too big to fall (this blog argues that they are not) and questions whether governments should help traders finance their margin calls. The news agency argues that trading companies should first tap private sources, including their shareholders. A lack of liquidity in the primary commodity markets makes the situation even more challenging.

Ukrainian Prime Minister has urged Nestle to rethink the company’s decision to continue some operations in Russia. Nestle has suspended shipments of non-essential products but is still supplying necessities such as baby and pet food.

Maersk has halted new container bookings to and from Russia but still has vessels calling at Russian ports to deliver containers booked before the invasion and pick up around 50,000 containers stranded in Russia. Maersk’s CEO told Bloomberg that exiting Russia will be “expensive” but makes sense because the country’s economy won’t grow “for a very long time.” He added, “It’s a decision based on morals, but it’s also a financially sound decision in the longer term.”

Maersk has joined the Climate Pledge, an environmental initiative whose signatories commit to fully decarbonise their operations by 2040. Maersk is the first large shipping company to join the programme.

In other company news, Louis Dreyfus has created a new plant proteins business as part of their plans to move further downstream and diversify revenue through more value-added products.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

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There is always a solution!

I am truly saddened to hear that Guy Hogge, former Global Head of Sustainability for Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC), has passed away after a long illness.

In his memory, I publish a short extract of a conversation we had back in 2016. It is as relevant now as it was then.

There is an old proverb that “the good die young.”  I offer my condolences to his family, friends, and colleagues.

Good morning, Guy. What are the biggest challenges that our sector faces in terms of sustainability?

One of our biggest challenges relates to the environment, particularly in terms of deforestation and the preservation of natural habitats. It is a huge challenge given the amount of food that we must produce to feed a growing population in the years and decades ahead. We must ensure that the expansion of food production does not come at a massive environmental cost.

Another enormous challenge concerns human rights and labour issues, particularly in developing countries, and especially around forced child labour and bonded labour. Trying to eradicate both from agricultural supply chains is a huge undertaking.

Where are the hot points now: palm, cotton, soy?

Palm is a concern, obviously. The anticipated expansion of soybean production in South America is attracting a lot of scrutiny.  There is concern in cotton regarding water usage in both growing and processing it, but also regarding the amount of water used in washing clothes during their life cycle—and I have no idea how to resolve that!

I read somewhere that the world will need to produce as much food in the next forty years as it did in the last 8,000 years. Can we do it?

Across a basket of the main agricultural commodities, there is currently a slowing down in the rate of increase in agricultural yields, the amount of food that each hectare produces. This trend needs to be reversed if we are to produce the food that we will need without cutting down forests or invading natural habitats. If we want to preserve those habitats—and I certainly do—we will need to see massive yield increases from limited and constrained resources like land and water.

Are you optimistic that we can feed the world in a sustainable way?

Large-scale agriculture is already relatively efficient in terms of how much of each crop is utilized. Sugarcane is a good example. The dry matter from the crushing process, the bagasse, is burnt to provide electricity both for the mill and for the surrounding areas. The sludge (vinasse) from the production process is reapplied to the land as fertilizer. Water treatment methodologies have improved tremendously to allow wastewater to be recycled and reused.

The mindset in agriculture now is to extract the maximum value from field crops and to reduce waste to a minimum. To move along that road, we need continuous improvement in technology and process efficiency. We need to use every part of the plant and recycle any waste material left over from harvesting and processing.

Africa is the one continent that is expected to see the biggest population increase. Can Africa feed itself or will it need massive food imports?

I am not an agronomist but in terms of suitable land for cultivation, I would have to say that with the proper investment Africa has the potential to be self-sufficient in food—and even to be an exporter of food. A lot of countries import food that they are perfectly capable of growing domestically.

As population and food production in Africa grows, the native flora and fauna will become increasingly under pressure. Is there any solution to this?

There is always a solution! We need to look at which areas can be brought into agricultural production, and which areas should be kept as natural habitats. There is a balance to be struck, but it requires good governance.

Many farmers in developing countries live in poverty. What can be done to improve their conditions?

Education is key, not just in general terms but specifically on husbandry techniques and yield improvement. That is tough for us to implement in areas where we as a company have no direct relationship with the farmers. In cases like that, it is the amalgamators of volume—the local cooperatives for example—that have a significant role to play in making sure that each farmer receives the necessary coaching and education.

If this isn’t done the next generation will abandon their land to seek better opportunities in the cities. This is already happening. We must incentivise that young generation—through better returns or through government support—to stay on the farms.

It is a sensitive subject as to whether agricultural land should be amalgamated to capture economies of scale, lower costs and give farmers better returns. It is a question as to how you achieve economies of scale while not harming local communities or culture. Going into a continent like Africa to farm huge concessions will invariably always have an impact on local communities. 

How do you deal with countries that have a less than perfect record in human rights or environmental sustainability? Do you engage with them, or boycott them?

In the context of sustainability, I believe that engagement is better than boycott.  Engaging with Indonesian palm oil producers, for example, can lead to positive change. The same applies to engaging with smallholder farmers as to why education for their children is more important than having a little extra help on the farm.

Avoiding questionable supply chains completely may be an easy way to refrain from dealing with an issue, but it is not the best way to inspire and encourage change on the ground. If you want to address issues you have to be involved in them.

Any other thoughts?

I want to make it clear that not everything is perfect. But we are moving in the right direction, that’s for sure. As the saying goes, “sustainability is a journey, not a destination”.

The second point I would like to make is that sustainability is one area in which we can be collaborative, even with our most ardent competitors. We can take what we do and share it with others through commodity roundtables or other networks such as industry associations and multilateral institutions. That is the only way we can have the collective brainpower to find the innovative solutions that we will need in the decades ahead.

The third point is that we need the politicians to take a neutral stance. We have recently seen some fairly worrying political thinking regarding climate change; it has been introverted and insular instead of being inclusive and collaborative. No individual, company or even country can solve these issues by themselves. But we can if we work together.

Having said that I find particularly encouraging the way that the private sector has responded to the lack of political engagement on issues like climate change. The consumer is clearly concerned about the issue, and businesses are reacting to that concern with the help of civil society. I am already greatly encouraged to see how the private sector can work together with civil society.

After all, we are all people—and we all live on the same planet!

 R.I.P.  Guy.

Commodity Conversations News Monitor

We will all soon feel the “enormous impact” of Russia’s war on Ukraine with sharply higher food prices and significant disruption to agricultural supply chains. The situation is tipping into a full-blown crisis, potentially outstripping the Covid pandemic’s blow and pushing millions more into hunger.

The head of the World Food Programme agrees that the conflict could have a catastrophic impact on the world’s poorest, putting more people at risk of starvation worldwide. He added that “the bullets and bombs in Ukraine could take the global hunger crisis to levels beyond anything we’ve seen before.”

Goldman Sachs has said the world’s farmers have little spare capacity to increase acreage while crop nutrients are too expensive to increase yields.

The FT argues that the US farmers will be especially limited, writing, “After a poor harvest last year, domestic wheat stocks are at their lowest level in 14 years. Farmers have already seeded 34.4mn acres with winter wheat, which accounts for the majority of US production, and there is a worsening drought in important winter wheat states such as Kansas.”

China’s agriculture minister has said that China’s winter wheat crop could be the “worst in history.” He explained that heavy rainfall last year delayed the planting of about one-third of the regular wheat acreage.

AgResource has reduced its estimate for Brazilian soybean production to 119.5 mln mt. The company said that when you factor in potential losses in Argentina and Paraguay, 40 mln mt of soybeans could be lost due to poor weather.

Russia’s Prime Minister has said that he will prioritize grain supplies to domestic bakeries over export markets. The Russian government is already considering banning all grain exports to the Eurasian Economic Union until September.

Ukraine’s government has banned exports of rye, barley, buckwheat, millet, sugar, salt, and meat until the end of this year. Earlier, the country had introduced export licences for wheat, corn and sunflower oil, poultry, and eggs.

Egypt has banned the export of essential staples, including flour, lentils, wheat, pasta and fava beans. The government has meanwhile blamed greedy traders for rising food prices.

Indonesia has said it will further restrict palm oil exports to increase domestic supplies. LMC International has described cooking oils as facing a perfect storm, with as much as 60 per cent of sunflower oil exports from the Black Sea region delayed due to the war.

The UN FAO has warned that “before enacting any measures to secure food supply, governments must consider their potential effects on international markets.” The FAO added that “restrictions could help to resolve individual country food security challenges in the short term, but they would drive up prices on global markets.”

China’s President Xi Jinping has said that China can no longer rely on international markets to ensure food security and should focus on domestic production.

Asia’s preference for rice over wheat could limit the fallout from reduced Black Sea wheat exports. Food inflation is relatively contained in Asia, thanks to the popularity of rice and falling pork prices.

Cargill and ADM are scaling back their business activities in Russia but will continue to operate “essential” food facilities there. In a statement, Cargill said, “Food is a basic human right and should never be used as a weapon.”

Skyrocketing prices force physical commodities trading houses to seek additional financing for margin calls on their hedge positions.

Nestle and Mondelez have followed Procter & Gamble and Unilever in halting investment in Russia. However, the four companies will continue providing essentials to maintain “continuity” of the Russian food supply.

Higher fuel prices and increased transport costs could add to the already sharp rise in world coffee prices.

In shipping, Maersk is looking to divest its minority interest in Russia’s largest terminal operator.

Meanwhile, the war may lead to a global crew shortage as Ukrainians and Russians account for nearly 15 per cent of the industry’s 1.9 million seafarers and a high proportion of its officers and ranked crew. Ukraine has conscripted men under 60 and forbidden them to leave the country. Some 140 ships and 1,000 workers are trapped in Ukraine waters, although Russia appears to be letting some ships carrying grains leave the Azov Sea.

Consolidation continues in the container-shipping sector, with Hapag-Lloyd acquiring the container liner business of Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL).

The Brazilian government has presented a National Fertilizer Plan to reduce the country’s dependency on imports from 85 per cent of its demand to 45 per cent. Brazil is the world’s fourth-biggest importer of fertilizer.

Norway’s Yara, one of the world’s largest fertilizer makers, is curtailing ammonia and urea output in Italy and France due to the surge in natural gas prices.

In environmental news, new research finds that three-quarters of the Amazon rainforest may be speeding toward a “tipping point” that could transform it into a relatively dry savanna.

A new report estimates that in the US in 2018, around 235 million pounds of herbicides and insecticides were used on corn and soy crops destined for factory-farmed animals.

The Guardian writes that the US beef industry has escaped relatively unscathed from the US President’s pledge to cut methane gas emissions by 30 per cent by 2030.

Reuters reports that US ethanol producers are betting on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to lower their greenhouse gas emissions.

Maersk wants to jump-start the green methanol market to help them ditch fossil fuels. The company could buy at least 730,000 tons of methanol per year by 2025.

Bloomberg Green has an excellent video on how technology could help the global shipping industry ‘go green’.

Finally, Visual Capitalist has a good piece on the enormous scale of US food waste.

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Commodity Conversations News Monitor

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created “the shock of a lifetime” in global commodity markets, with the fastest increase in prices since the 1960s or 1970s. Wheat (at the time of writing) is up 40 per cent on the week. One analyst called it “the modern-day equivalent to the 1974 Great Grain Robbery.”

Russian forces have closed off Black Sea shipments, leaving buyers scrambling for alternative supplies. Canada can’t help because drought reduced its grain inventories by 38 per cent from a year earlier. However, India could export a record 7 million tonnes of wheat in 2021-22.

The US Agriculture Secretary said it’s premature to project what will happen to agricultural exports from the Black Sea, but “the biggest areas of concern would be the Middle East and North Africa that do need those products to be able to feed their people.”

Chinese buyers bought about 20 cargoes of American soybeans and about ten cargoes of corn this week after the Chinese government encouraged state-owned companies to search for oil and gas, iron ore, barley, and corn.

The FT has written about “the weaponization of commodity trading.” A former US official told the newspaper, “Commodities have been weaponized for a long, long time. It was always a question of when does a state pull the trigger.”

Farmers worldwide are scrambling to lock in fertilizer supplies as prices once again head higher. Canada’s Nutrien, the world’s biggest fertilizer producer, said that the war could result in prolonged disruptions to the global supply of potash and nitrogen crop nutrients. India, meanwhile, has set up a rupee-clearing account to pay for urea imports from Iran.

Palm oil prices have also shot up as markets scramble to find alternatives to shipments of sunflower oil stuck in Black Sea ports. India has asked Indonesia to increase palm oil shipments to compensate for the loss of sunflower oil supplies. Meanwhile, Palm oil has become the most expensive of the four major edible oils for the first time.

Since last December, the USDA has progressively lowered its forecast for soybean production in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay by more than 18 million tonnes. It now expects the smallest crop since 2018/19. However, heavy rains in Argentina’s farm belt – and expectations of more to come – are alleviating fears about a prolonged drought. There is even concern that there may be too much rain.

Societe Generale and Credit Suisse have stopped financing commodities trading from Russia. (The two banks are key financiers to commodity trade houses.) Commodity trading companies have told Reuters that Russian commodity flows will remain severely disrupted until clarity is established over what is sanctioned and what is exempted.

Nestlé has reopened its factories and warehouses in central and western Ukraine to ensure essential food and drink deliveries. The Swiss-based group has three factories and around 5,000 employees in Ukraine.

Although sanctions don’t yet target Russian energy exports or (non-military) containerized goods, many tanker owners and container liner operators are pre-emptively pulling out of Russia. Moller-Maersk, Ocean Network Express, MSC, and Hapag Lloyd have temporarily halted all container shipping to and from Russia.

Shipping lines are likely to come under increased scrutiny from the US Department of Transportation and the US Department of Justice over rising rates. However, the Federal Maritime Commission said that, for now, there is no evidence of wrongdoing.

Progress is being made to build the world´s first large-scale commercial e-Methanol production facility in time for the delivery of Maersk’s large dual-fuel methanol ready containerships in the second half of 2023.

Chevron has agreed to buy green diesel producer Renewable Energy Group for $3.1 billion. Renewable is a large producer of biodiesel and renewable diesel. Meanwhile, Marathon Petroleum Corp will form a joint venture with Finnish refiner Neste for its Martinez renewable fuels project in California. Neste will contribute $1 billion to the project.

Trade associations representing the world’s major trading firms have warned the European Commission that their plan to prevent commodities linked to deforestation from entering the EU market is “technically and effectively not feasible.”

A study published in Nature Sustainability shows that carbon loss from tropical deforestation in the last two decades has doubled and continues to rise, mainly driven by agricultural expansion.

Brazil’s cattle ranchers are trying to reduce methane emissions through “intensification” – keeping 15 animals per hectare, instead of fewer than one – and slaughtering the animals at 18 rather than 30 months.

Finally, in a special report on sustainable agriculture, the FT writes about the adverse effects of climate change and higher temperatures on farmworkers.

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A Conversation with Devashish Chaubey

Good morning, Devashish. Could you please briefly describe your career so far and your current role within Olam?

I am head of rice and speciality grains within Olam. When I say speciality grains, I mean superfoods like quinoa, chia, and sorghum.

How significant a business is rice for Olam?

Rice currently employs roughly 2,000 people, and we rank second in terms of global volumes traded.

We operate a large rice farm in Nigeria – and we are a significant player in Nigeria’s domestic rice market.

In geographies such as Vietnam, we operate mills but also buy rice from millers. In origins where we don’t have mills, we buy rice from millers and then upgrade/reprocess the rice to our customers’ specifications. We have reprocessing facilities in Thailand and India that upgrade milled rice.

We sell to importers in various geographies, and in some we import ourselves and distribute the rice through the general trade and modern retailers.

 What are the biggest challenges that you face as a rice trader?

Counterparty risk is the biggest challenge for rice traders generally. The challenge is to build a deep sense of reliability and faith with your customers.

Managing price volatility is our second challenge, especially with climate change. In 2008, there was a drought-induced production shortfall in SE Asia and this severely impacted world trade flows and price. Any production shortfall in a major producer can have a significant impact on price. One example is Australia. The country swings from an excellent crop to a small crop primarily depending on water supply.

Climate change exacerbates the situation. Up until 2018, Thailand used to produce 10-11 million tonnes of exportable rice. This year, Thailand will export maybe 5-6 million tonnes. Thailand’s water reserves available for irrigation have lately not been enough, and they have experienced a rainfall shortage for the past few years. It has affected global supply and driven prices higher.

What are the main sustainability issues in rice?

Rice has more sustainability issues than most other staple crops, ranging across environmental and social issues. When you consider that one-quarter of all the farmers in the world grow rice, you realise how important it is to address these sustainability issues correctly.

Smallholder farmers account for nearly all the rice production in SE Asia. Most are in poor areas, which means a high correlation between rice farming and poverty. There is also a 65 per cent correlation between rice and malnourishment in regions where rice is either the main staple or the largest consumed crop. Rice has significant social issues.

If you take environmental issues, rice is the second-largest man-made emitter of methane after livestock. Rice emits about 12 per cent of all man-made methane and about 2.5 per cent of all man-made GHG emissions. That is significant from an environmental standpoint.

Methane emissions are high because rice is farmed in most areas through flood irrigation. Farmers flood the rice fields to stop weeds from growing. It leads to high methane emissions and freshwater use.

Rice uses about one-third of the world’s freshwater availability each year. You need on average 2,500-3,000 litres of water to produce one kilo of rice. Although that sounds alarming, some other field crops have similar figures. But even so, moving away from flood irrigation would not only reduce methane emissions but would also reduce water withdrawals.

Tell me a little about your farm in Nigeria.

At one time, Nigeria was the world’s second-largest rice importer after China, buying between 3 and 4 million tonnes a year – spending a lot of precious foreign exchange in the process.  Nigeria has the climatic conditions, the land, the people, and the water resources it needs to grow rice.

About ten years back, the Nigerian government encouraged their population to take up rice farming, giving them incentives to do it. The government also encouraged corporate investors to begin rice farming, giving out tax incentives and providing them with tracks of land with adequate water resources.

Olam now manages 13,000 hectares of contiguous land in Nasarawa State in central Nigeria, of which we farm 4,500 hectares. We keep some in preserved lands, forests, wetlands etc., to encourage biodiversity.

We realised that the only way we could farm 4,500 hectares would be to have it fully mechanised. Our farm is probably one of the most modern rice farms that exist. It is fully mechanised and integrated. We have a rice mill at the farm where we mill the paddy. We seed, apply fertiliser, pest and weed care aerially. All our harvesting is mechanised.

We run a large seed development unit on the farm. Historically, there has been insufficient investment into developing high-yielding seed varieties suitable for Africa. When we tried the rice varieties that grow in Asia, we found that they were often not suitable. The soil and the agroclimatic conditions are not the same. So, we set up a research and development centre and a plant breeding station. While the varieties we currently grow on the farm are bred by research agencies in Asia and Africa, we should have in-house varieties over the next few years.

Has the project helped the local community?

Although fully mechanised, our farm has brought employment to a rural area where little existed before. We have also built schools and clinics.

But that is the minor part of what we do. The more significant element is the out-growers programmes that we run for about 32,000 growers. We share developments that take place on our farm, whether in varietals, nutrition or pest and disease management.

Wageningen University has studied our out-growers programme in Nigeria. Our out-growers programme raised incomes, got more women and young people involved, and improved environmental sustainability. Farmers are now conscious and more concerned about the environment than they were before. Furthermore, our interventions are reducing food loss in the value chain which, for our farmers, is 30 per cent.

Thank you, Devashish, for your time and input!

This is a short extract from Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade Them available on Amazon.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

Commodity Conversations News Monitor

“In war, truth is the first casualty.” So wrote Aeschylus, a Greek tragic dramatist, in the 5th century BCE.  His words are as valid now as they were then. In the western world, we are fortunate to have strong independent media. We should never take it for granted.

Commodity exports from the Black Sea have been thrown into chaos after Russia’s invasion forced ports and railways to close. Ships loading in Ukraine have been told they will be allowed to leave, but those waiting to berth can’t dock. A missile hit a vessel in Ukrainian waters but sailed into Rumanian waters unaided. At least one other ship has suffered damage.

Bunge and ADM have suspended operations in Ukraine following the invasion, and some European banks have imposed restrictions on commodity-trade finance linked to Russia and Ukraine. At least two of China’s largest state-owned banks are also restricting financing for Chinese purchases of Russian commodities.

Chicago corn and wheat prices surged following the invasion, and analysts worry that the sky is now the limit for food inflation. Unsurprisingly, investors are pumping more money into commodity funds than at any time in the last decade.

China confirmed that it had lifted restrictions on the imports of Russian wheat, a decision taken before the winter Olympics in Beijing.

Russia is a significant fertiliser exporter, and prices for nitrogen fertiliser in New Orleans surged 25 per cent following the invasion. Fertiliser shortages may hit the US growing season, and the US Agriculture Secretary warned fertiliser companies against taking an “unfair advantage” of the Ukraine conflict.

A backlog of vessels waiting to load soybeans from some Brazilian ports is stretching to near-record lengths, with some ships waiting for more than 40 days, significantly longer than the seven to 15 days that’s typical. Meanwhile, ADM has shipped a record (for the port) 84,802 tonnes of soybeans in a single vessel from the Ponta da Montanha Grain Terminal (TGPM) in the northern Brazilian city of Barcarena.

The Loadstar has a well-written piece that asks whether the container shipping crisis is coming to an end. The US Transportation Department is awarding $450 million in grants for US port-related projects to bolster capacity and improve the movement of goods. Platts hosts a discussion on potential applications for ammonia as a maritime fuel.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has warned that Argentina’s crop yields for corn and soybeans could continue to fall owing to a lack of rain. Paraguay’s oilseed processors are lobbying the government to allow duty-free soybean imports for the first time to keep their mills running as a drought slashes local production.

Bunge has signed a definitive agreement with Chevron to create a 50/50 joint venture to produce renewable fuels and develop lower carbon intensity feedstocks. The financial terms of the transaction, first announced in September 2021, were not disclosed.

The US EPA has told Reuters that it is committed to increasing the use of biofuels, but the industry is still anxiously awaiting the administration to finalise specific blending goals.

Hydrous ethanol sales in the Center-South region of Brazil rose 22 per cent in the first half of February compared with the same period a month earlier, a trend that may continue with energy prices rising.

Beyond Meat is not real meat, but it bleeds cash. The company’s stock dropped 11 per cent after it reported losses of $80.4 million in the last three months of 2021 — more than triple the loss of a year before. The company blamed weak US retail sales, increased discounts, and a loss of market share. An analyst from J.P. Morgan called Beyond Meat “the worst performer in our universe in the last year.”

Draft new rules (seen by Bloomberg) would allow victims to sue for compensation in a proposed EU crackdown on human rights abuses and environmental breaches in supply chains. Right on cue, the World Economic Forum writes that mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence are now essential for any business.

Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Cafe-Cacao, plans to start a pilot program in April to trace cocoa from plantation to ports. For years, agronomists have told cocoa and coffee farmers in West Africa to uproot trees from their fields. This video (in French) argues that advice is misguided and explains how trees fertilise and protect surrounding crops.

The Inter-American Development Bank has shelved a plan to lead a $200 million syndicated loan for Marfrig Global Foods amid growing concern over deforestation in the Amazon.

The US and the UAE are seeking an additional $4 billion investment for the Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate (AIM for Climate) on top of the $4 billion that they agreed when they launched the initiative last November.

The sustainability charity Wrap has asked supermarkets to stop selling fresh produce in plastic packaging. They argue that it does not make them last longer and adds to pollution and food waste. Next week, world governments will gather in Nairobi to discuss a global treaty to combat plastic waste.

The UK’s National Farming Union President has warned that farmers in England and Wales ‘face toughest times in a generation’. She said that government ministers “have no understanding of how food production works” and have introduced “completely contradictory policies” through the lack of a post-Brexit plan for UK farming.

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A conversation with Jean-Luc Bohbot

Good morning, Jean-Luc. What is Wilmar’s position now in the sugar business?

We are the only global, fully integrated sugar company involved all along the supply chain. We produce sugar from both cane and beet. We are refiners, traders, distributors, and we have our brands.

We have 24 mills worldwide: eight in Australia, seven in India, seven in Morocco, and two in Myanmar. We process about 21 million tonnes of cane and 6 million tonnes of beet globally per year. All that adds up to an annual sugar production of approximately 3.5 million tonnes.

In addition to our cane and beet mills, we also have nine refineries: two in Indonesia; two in Australia; one in New Zealand; two in India; one in Saudi Arabia; one in Morocco – in total, about six million tonnes of refining capacity.

Without double-counting, we have an annual trading volume of around 16 million tonnes. In terms of distribution, retail and the food industry, we do about 3.5 million tonnes. We manage various consumer brands, for example, Chelsea in New Zealand, CSA in Australia, Madhur in India, Gazelle, and others in Morocco.

Our business model is to have our assets and trading fully integrated, where trading contributes to the asset performance using the assets’ ‘captive’ volumes.

Which countries have the most significant impact on the sugar price?

Two countries drive the price on the supply side. Brazil is the first, with about 60 per cent of the world export market. India is the second, with big swings in production and exports and a hefty dose of politics. India always has the potential to destabilize market equilibrium in one direction or another.

China drives the price on the demand side. It is the world’s biggest importer of sugar, and domestic demand continues to grow. It’s not just sugar. China is a major importer of grains and soybeans. These commodities, along with sugar, are of strategic importance to the country. China operates a system of strategic reserves. It often makes it difficult to predict whether they will meet domestic demand, or part of domestic demand, by running down stocks or through imports.

What are the other price drivers?

The world is going through an energy revolution of decarbonization, transiting from fossil to renewable fuels. We are just at the beginning of this revolution.

Developing countries face a more significant challenge than developed countries. Not only do they have to manage existing demand, but they must also manage two-digit growth in energy demand. It is an important issue for them. To reduce GHG emissions, they must react strongly and quickly. Bioenergy could play a growing role in the range of options offered to control footprint emissions.

Today, sugar is highly correlated to energy – particularly crude oil – due to the link in Brazil and, increasingly, in India. Brazil can swing 30 to 70 per cent of the sugar or ethanol ratio production – that’s a lot of sugar! Ethanol can also play a key role in hydrogen as an energy source. It could also be used in jet fuel.

This energy revolution will impact all agricultural commodities, and there will be increasing convergence between agriculture and energy – green energy.

At the same time, climate change is making the weather increasingly unstable and unpredictable. This year, we have drought across the Americas, frosts in Southern Brazil and floods in Europe. I can’t say for sure that climate change is producing these dramatic weather shocks, but I feel that they are a foretaste of what is to come.

Agricultural commodities, whether sugar or soybeans, depend too heavily on a few countries to produce them; weather shocks in these few countries have a multiplier effect on production and price.

Are you worried that electric vehicles (EVs) might negatively impact ethanol demand?

Not really.

Leaving aside deforestation, Brazil is one of the least polluting countries globally, thanks to hydroelectric power, ethanol, and bagasse. Ethanol produces 70 per cent less CO2 than gasoline. Brazil is a world leader in terms of GHG emissions from transport. Why would Brazil change its energy matrix to include EVs, considering the investment they would need to build the charging infrastructure?

EVs are a solution for Europe and the US – countries that can afford to invest massively in the necessary charging infrastructure or for local cars in highly polluted big cities like in China. Many countries don’t have the capital to build the required charging infrastructure. It will lead to a backlash against EVs and a slowdown in demand growth. EVs are great for people in rich countries who don’t drive long distances or remain within a specific range of their homes or offices.

Ecologists like EVs, but the GHG footprint of EVs depends on how you produce the electricity. India produces over 70 per cent of its electricity from coal. About 20 per cent of the lifetime GHG footprint of an electric car occurs during its manufacture. When, on top of that, you use coal electricity, your final GHG footprint is not a positive contribution. It is no surprise that India is making a significant move towards ethanol.

In China, coal provides most of the electricity. It is fossil fuel electricity, not green electricity. EVs won’t help China or India significantly transition from fossil fuels; instead, they will keep them in place. Natural gas is 50 per cent less polluting than coal but is still 20 to 30 per cent more polluting than ethanol. The transition in developing countries will be towards a mix of solutions, but with ethanol playing a more prominent role.

There is also a question of how long it will take to replace the existing fleet with EVs. The average car in India is 15 years old. It will take years for the country to move to EVs, and the world can’t wait that long. We need an urgent solution. Ethanol is a cheap and immediate option for developing countries to reduce their CO2 emissions from road transport.

 Thank you, Jean-Luc, for your time and input.

This is a short extract from Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade Them available on Amazon.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022