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<\/p>\nChina\u2019s pork herd is expected to be halved by the end of 2019 as fresh outbreaks continue to be reported, with the government failing to get a grip on the rapidly-spreading deadly pig disease, Dutch lender Rabobank said.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s current pig herd is already estimated to be 40% smaller than last year\u2019s, with the pace of the decline set to ease during the second half of the year \u201cdue to the large slaughter in the first half of 2019,\u201d the bank said in its Pork Quarterly Q3 update.<\/p>\n
The Dutch lender expects a further 10% to 15% cut in China\u2019s herd size and pork production in 2020.<\/p>\n
The disease has been rapidly spreading around Asia, with China\u2019s neighbouring countries on high alert as it spreads further across Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and more recently North Korea.<\/p>\n
\u201cGiven its rapid progression, we suspect all Asian pork herds are at risk of ASF within the year. We expect Vietnam\u2019s pork production to drop by 15% to 20% year-on-year in 2019.\u201d the bank said.<\/p>\n
Rabobank added that it expects \u201cdisease pressures\u201d to affect global animal production in the next half-decade, with Chinese pork production expected to take up to five years to recover to levels prior to the outbreak.<\/p>\n
\u201cChallenges of restocking include lack of solutions to disease prevention, lack of capital, higher investment requirements, and other long-term issues, such as limited land access and strict environmental standards\u201d will all lead to a long recovery process, the bank said.<\/p>\n
Yet pig producers in exporting countries are not increasing their production in response to China\u2019s protein deficit, except for the US where there has been significant growth, as producers \u201cremain cautious and would rather observe than take concrete steps to expand\u201d.<\/p>\n
Almost all large pork exporters have seen volumes shipped to China increase this year apart from the US, amid high import tariffs placed on American meat as part of the ongoing trade dispute.<\/p>\n
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