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Pork prices in China could see a spike in 2019 due to a potential pig supply shortage caused by the ongoing African Swine Fever (ASF) incident in the country, according to government and market sources.<\/p>\n
A government official from the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said at an industry event in China on Saturday that, unless controlled quickly, the spread of the fatal disease could have a long-term impact on meat prices.<\/p>\n
A shortage of pig supply may occur \u201cif the disease cannot be effectively controlled or [if it] spreads even further, causing farmers\u2019 willingness to replenish stock to be weak,\u201d the chief from the price-monitoring centre at NDRC told Chinese private newswire Caixin.<\/p>\n
Two new ASF outbreaks were found in both western and north-eastern parts of China on Sunday, taking the total number of outbreaks this year to 92.<\/p>\n
However, the impact of more than 600,000 dead pigs has been deemed minimal for China\u2019s pig supply in the short-term, but will have a bigger impact next year.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe culling of pigs has little direct impact on pig stocks as China produces more than 700 million a year and culls 2 million pigs on average per day,\u201d a China-based analyst from an international crusher told AgriCensus.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt mainly effects stock replenishment. The replenishment declines 10% if there is no margin. The long-term effect is bigger,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s soybean crushers have been closely watching the potential impact of ASF on pig supply as soymeal \u2013 the main product from crushed soybean \u2013 is a main source of protein in pig feed.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe impact on soymeal demand will firstly depend on pig stock level and secondly rely on the margin [for pig farmers],\u201d the same analyst said.<\/p>\n
China’s government says it will import 84 million mt of soybeans in the 12 months starting October, down about 10% on a year earlier and the first time that China has seen a substantial reduction in imports since records began.<\/p>\n
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