At the end of every year since 2006, Rabobank asks their contacts in the food supply chain (“ranging from start-up founders to CEOs of zillion-dollar companies, and everyone in between”) the following question: “In the world of food, what surprised you the most over the last twelve months?” This year they received over 200 responses, some surprising, some less so.
Overall, respondents were “surprised” by the way the food supply chain is managing to respond quickly to constant changes in consumers’ demands. As one client wrote: “From delivering new products, changing business models, adjusting to consumer shifts, investing in innovation in various forms, and facing tough realities, the world of food is markedly different.” Heads are no longer being buried in the sand, as “it seems that everyone suddenly woke up.”
However there was still some criticism of “”Big Food,” with one respondent writing that he was surprised that “that big-food-brands companies are still struggling to grow despite most of them revising strategies and replacing CEOs.” Another was surprised that “the troubles faced by the Big CPGs, with brands my mom and grandparents used to buy, seemed to get worse over the past year despite so much renovation and reconfiguration of operations and marketing approaches.”
Some respondents talked about the way Big Food is trying to achieve top-line growth “via overpriced acquisitions that are shareholder wealth destructive”. Another
Many respondents expressed surprise at the rapidity with which consumers are embracing plant-based foods and/or a “flexitarian” diet. One client replied that he was surprised by “the acceleration of plant-based foods – and the growing acceptance of the products by non-vegan, non-vegetarian consumers regardless if their motivation is for health, animal welfare, or
Respondents were almost unanimous in their view that this is an enduring trend rather than a “fad”, but many stressed that the diet was not for everyone. One wrote, “Despite all the money flowing into replacement meat products, I don’t see the evidence of consumer desires for these products.” Another mentioned the “mismatch between what the media is writing about and reality.”
One “surprise” that was cited was the different ways in which consumers respond to technology in their food supply. Some clients detected a thawing in relations between food and science: although “consumers have been rejecting science more and more over the past decade” (such as the non-GMO movement), there is growing appreciation of the role of technology in many aspects of food and agricultural production”.
However, one respondent wrote he was frustrated by “the rising tendency for people to selectively believe science only when it aligns with their beliefs.” Others were surprised by the lack of pushback by food companies against the anti-science bias in food. One criticised “the willingness of some food companies to ignore science and chase consumer fads.” Examples included the proliferation of free-from claims on “products that never have, nor will have, certain ingredients.”
Some respondents expressed surprise “by how quickly capital and ideas are flowing to the nascent and undefined world of CBD, (cannabidiol – a non-intoxicating cannabinoid found in cannabis and hemp) both in food and beverages.” One expressed surprise that food companies and retailers are “embracing CBD given regulatory uncertainty, not to mention uncertainty around its effectiveness, proper dosage, etc.”
However, with the passing of the latest Farm Bill taking industrial hemp off the list of Schedule 1 narcotics (as defined by the Controlled Substance Act), one respondent wrote, “I almost see this as a space that can be as deep and wide as alcoholic beverages, and large strategics are having to act quickly to determine whether or not they want to take the risk of playing in this space (or not).”
Among other surprises cited in the survey was “the velocity and breadth at which #MeToo rippled through the restaurant industry, resulting in rapid response and swift changes.” Regarding the environment, one client wrote, “This year we did not see coming the food industry disruption associated with use of plastic straws.” And for trade, one mentioned “The rapidity with which the trade war with China escalated, the resultant tariffs, and their impacts on fruit and nut producers in the U.S.”
Finally, the last word is left to the respondent who wrote that he was “surprised by the ferocity of the arguments about whether low-fat or low-carbohydrate diets are better for weight status. Really, both work, provided people adhere to them, and calories really do matter.”