Joel has had a unique shipping career with substantial international experience in Geneva, Panama, Dubai, Madrid, Shanghai, and London. He graduated from top universities in the UK, Europe, and America and is a regular speaker at shipping and trading events worldwide. He lectures at various universities and is the co-founder and CEO of multiple companies.
Good morning, Joel. First, please tell me what you do now.
I am Spanish, born in Barcelona, and live in South Ireland. I am 50 years old, happily married, and have three beautiful children.
I do shipbroking and freight trading, but I mainly focus on advisory and consultancy work for small and medium trading companies that move less than 10 million mt of cargo annually. I invest in start-ups and listed companies and lecture at the National Maritime College of Ireland, Deusto University, and UFM on maritime freight, logistics, supply chain, and business strategy. It takes time, but I do it to share the knowledge and experience gathered during these years and the countless courses I took as a student.
I have just launched an online shipping course, summarising key concepts. My goal is to become a tour guide in the business. We’ve launched the course I wish I had taken when I started in the industry.
What do you love about maritime freight?
I love following commerce, geopolitics, finance, and the macroenvironment. Politics significantly affects commodity markets, but the causality in freight is in the other direction. Maritime freight and trade flows frequently drive politics.
I will return to politics later, but first, I wanted to ask how the freight business has changed during your career.
Seaborne dry bulk trade volumes have grown significantly, surpassing 5.6 billion mt in 2024, up 26 per cent over the past decade. Iron ore, coal, and grains remain dominant cargoes, but the composition of trade is evolving, with grain shipments increasing and coal shipments projected to decline. Moreover, we have a new kid on the block: bauxite, which gives market makers optionality and flexibility.
The global dry bulk fleet has expanded accordingly, with a notable increase in vessel deliveries, especially in the Capesize and Panamax segments. On a forward basis, however, the Capesize+ order book is at its historical low levels (as are VLCCs). Shipyards have been more interested in containerships, car carriers, and LNG/LPG ships.
The industry has embraced digital transformation, with increased use of data analytics, digital tracking, and automation to optimise operations and improve efficiency.
Thanks to the industry’s healthy balance sheet and cash piles, mergers and acquisitions have reshaped the competitive landscape with larger players consolidating to achieve economies of scale and enhance logistics capabilities.
How have the major agricommodity companies adapted?
A few decades ago, the big trade houses were primarily on the buy side of the freight market, chartering on a voyage or time charter basis from traditional ship owners.
Agricommodity companies are now heavily involved on the supply side as operators or long-term time charterers. For example, Cargill controls more than 700 vessels, with only a quarter of this tonnage for their in-house cargo. The rest is third-party business.
All the major agricommodity companies trade freight as a standalone profit centre, taking long or short positions depending on their market view. Freight has become a tradable commodity.
What has driven this change?
Commodity prices have become more transparent; your buyers and sellers know the price as well as you do. It has made it difficult for trading companies to make a margin on their pure commodity trading.
Freight rates are less transparent than commodity prices, and the market might be more complex. You can play with your ships and fleets, ballasting times, charter-party terms, freight & bunker hedging, port congestion, ton-mile dynamics, trade routes, supply chain disruptions, FFA market liquidity and logistics efficiency. There are so many aspects you can massage! If you operate wisely and understand the cycles, you can make excellent returns positioned long or short tonnage. Fleet control provides enormous flexibility and optionality for trading houses. They love it!
However, there have been cases where companies have misread cycles and suffered significant losses on the shipping side. That’s when investors say, “I didn’t know you were taking such big positions on shipping!” The freight market is one of the most volatile markets in the world in terms of percentage moves and massive standard deviations.
This means that trading companies are reluctant to discuss their freight trading operations. Just check their annual reports, and you’ll see.
Agri-freight is a small percentage of the freight market, but how does its seasonality affect the overall freight market?
The relevant origins are in the Atlantic: the US Gulf, Canada, Brazil and Argentina. To participate, ship owners and operators must reposition their fleets in the Atlantic for loading. They discharge their cargoes in the Pacific or East Suez and then invest in the backhaul.
Owners must make enough cash on the front haul to cover their investment on the backhaul to reposition, but demand during the season is high enough to allow them to rebuild cash flow and profits.
Peak harvest periods can see spot rates for dry bulk shipping rise 20–50 per cent, with capacity shortages and spiking freight rates for Panamax and Handysize vessels. The Brazilian soybean harvest (March-May) heightens demand for larger vessels on China-bound routes, influencing the Baltic Dry Index.
Shifting harvest times due to weather disruptions can complicate scheduling, increasing demurrage and detention costs.
You mentioned global politics earlier. What is happening there?
There are so many things happening. We have a new global order in which the traditional gateways, the Panama and Suez Canals, are no longer 100 per cent reliable—Suez because of the Houthis and the political instability in the Middle East and Panama because of droughts. The Panamanian government has set up a new booking system based on auction slots. The last few years have seen some bad decisions for international investors in Panama, such as the closure of Minera Panamá, one of the largest copper miners in the region.
We need to find new routes. China needs reliable access to its buyers in the Atlantic from its Pacific ports. It can go around the Cape of Good Hope, but it is more expensive and time-consuming, uses more fuel, and is less environmentally friendly. The longer voyages take tonnage off the market and increase general freight rates.
Instead of going south, the Chinese now go north via Russia. The Chinese and Russians are developing ice-class vessels that they can use for six months of the year. With climate change, they may soon be able to do it for seven months or more. This is a significant advantage for Russia and China, which is why Americans want to control Greenland.
How will the Northern Sea Route (NSR) affect global trade flows?
It will have an enormous effect. Going north rather than south cuts shipping distances between Europe and Asia by 30–50 per cent compared to traditional routes via the Suez or Panama Canal.
The Hamburg to Yokohama voyage is 7,356 nautical miles via NSR versus 11,585 via Suez, saving 14 days. The NSR reduces the voyage time between Singapore and Europe to 70 days compared to 110 days via the Cape of Good Hope. These shorter sailing times can reduce fuel consumption by up to 40 per cent.
Going via the NSR avoids traditional chokepoints such as the Suez Canal and reduces the risk of political interference. Russia and China control the NSR and aim to increase cargo volumes to 130 million mt by 2035. As part of its Belt and Road Initiative, China invests in Arctic infrastructure to bypass US-controlled chokepoints like the Malacca Strait.
NSR cargo volumes reached 37.9 million mt in 2024, up from 111,000 mt in 2011, and may reach 130 million mt by 2035. Some predict that with global warming, the NSR may be navigable year-round by 2040, transforming it into a mainstream trade artery. Controlling ice-class fleets will become a question of national security.
You mentioned the political risk of the Suez Canal, but what about the Panama Canal: could the US control it and prevent other countries from using it?
The Chinese have been worried that the US might take control of the Panama Canal and exclude them from using it. They are taking evasive action.
COSCO Shipping Ports, a subsidiary of the Chinese state-owned COSCO Shipping Corporation, in partnership with Peru’s Volcan Mining Company, is building Chancay Port, a multi-billion-dollar mega port about 60 kilometres north of Lima. The port began operations last year and should be fully operational by 2025-2026. It will be a deepwater facility (17.80 m draft!) capable of receiving the world’s largest container ships, with a planned capacity of up to 1.5 million TEUs annually in the long term.
It will serve as a direct maritime link between South America and Asia, significantly reducing shipping times between Peru/West Coast South America and China-Asian markets by up to 20 days and bypassing traditional routes through North America and the Panama Canal. Chancay is the equivalent of the port of Singapore for South America.
In addition, Chinese companies are actively investing in additional port projects across Peru, making the country a key node in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, connected with rail networks into Brazil – the world’s supermarket! It is a game changer in the Asia-Pacific.
They aim to connect Brazilian commodities to Asian markets by bypassing the Panama Canal.
Last question: What’s your advice for young people interested in developing a career in shipping?
First, when you finish reading this interview, you must learn how to invest to let compound interest work for you. Doing this will buy you the time to think, study, read more, travel, do nothing, sleep properly, eat healthily, meditate, exercise and spend quality time with the people you love. Relationships are what matter the most.
Second, go and live abroad alone. You’ll have no other option but to develop in various ways. Invest in yourself. No one can take from you the person you will become in the process.
Third, be as curious as a child and humble as a sage. Never take things for granted. Add value before asking to be rewarded. See yourself as a learning machine in this endless learning process called life. And don’t forget to have a lot of fun throughout.
Shipping is a fascinating industry with many colourful characters to learn from. It has a compelling risk-reward ratio. It will allow you to discover the world, cultivate soft skills and understand the real economy, bringing together geopolitics, international trade, commerce, finance, and other intellectually challenging subjects.
If all this makes sense to you and you are interested in working in international environments where teamwork makes the difference, dive into the shipping world. You won’t regret it.
© Commodity Conversations® 2025
The above is an extract from the upcoming second edition of my book, Commodity Conversations – An Introduction To Trading In Agricultural Commodities, which I hope to publish in June 2025.