Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Wilmar International and Associated British Foods (ABF) announced the creation of a joint-venture in China that will produce yeast and other bakery ingredients. The partnership will build a new unit attached to a Wilmar food processing factory and take over operations from AB Mauri, an ABF subsidiary.

In order to reduce costs after a disappointing first quarter, ADM has merged two of its five businesses – the grain trading and oilseeds segments – into one operation. The group is struggling amid the bad weather in the US Midwest and trade tensions with China. This marks the second restructuring in 14 months and analysts noted that it would help streamline operations.

ADM was reportedly one of the trading groups who sold Brazilian corn to the US in recent weeks, as sources said that between 5 and 10 Brazilian corn vessels were purchased by Smithfield Food in the US, a subsidiary of China’s WH Group. Importing can save on the cost of transportation from the Corn Belt, where the bad weather is expected to delay planting and lower total corn output this year. Overall, traders estimate that the US could be due to receive 1 million mt of corn from South America. This would help Brazilian farmers, who expect to harvest a record 100 million mt of corn. Global corn supplies are also being threatened by the fall armyworm in China, usually the world’s second largest corn producer, as the pest has now affected 15 regions and should keep spreading, according to the USDA.

In Switzerland, the NGO Public Eye is asking the government to implement stricter rules on human rights violations for agricultural trading companies that operate out of the country. It estimates that 50% of global grain, 40% of global sugar and 30% of global coffee and cocoa are traded from Switzerland.

In a major but little-noticed move, the USDA officially authorised the transport of hemp and THC across US states last week. The agency said that “Congress has removed hemp from schedule I and removed it entirely from the CSA (Controlled Substances Act)”. Analysts noted that Unilever was in a good position to trial the sale of cannabidiol (CBD) products, which was legalised with hemp in the 2018 Farm Bill, thanks to its large number of brands. The group has already announced possible CBD variants for two brands: Schmidt’s Naturals, which makes natural deodorants, and Ben & Jerry’s.

The competition is increasing in the plant-based meat sector as Nestle is due to launch its Sweet Earth Awesome Burger in the US before the end of the year. While other brands like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods are already available in many outlets, Nestle highlighted that its vegan burger is actually healthier, with more fibre and protein than its competitors. This marks the third plant-based burger offered by Nestle, along with the Garden Gourmet brand in the EU and the Incredible Burger it sells through McDonald’s in Germany.

The traditional meat market could also see some major changes, as Brazil’s chicken producer BRF SA is looking to acquire Marfrig Global Foods SA, which would create the world’s fourth-largest meat company. Protein export demand is expected to surge this year as China is due to lose 10% of its pig population to the African Swine Fever, although experts cautioned that the two groups might struggle to combine and streamline operations.

The Ecological Transition ministry in France instructed 15 fast-food chains, including McDonald’s, KFC, Burger King and Starbucks, to sort the waste at 70% of their restaurants before the end of 2019, in order to comply with a 2016 law. France is also planning to expand the ban on the destruction of food items to non-food items, like clothes sold by luxury stores or online retailers. The measures are seen as a consequence of the success of the green party during the European elections.

Lastly this week, a Californian judge agreed to overrule the decision that would have forced coffee makers to include a cancer warning label. The drawn-out legal case revolved around the trace amounts of acrylamide, a carcinogenic, found in coffee.

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Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) announced that it has renewed a USD 750 million loan which will be linked to how the company performs based on a number of sustainability goals. The interest rate will be based on its carbon emissions, waste disposal and electricity and water consumption. The concept is gaining in popularity, especially in Europe, and Moody’s estimated that a total of USD 36 billion worth of sustainable loans were issued last year. Starbucks and Mercon Coffee Group announced similar loans earlier this month, as they noted that the coffee supply chain was particularly vulnerable to climate change.

In China, LDC has partnered with Guangdong Haid Group to produce high-end aquatic feeds and fermented soybean meal, the first investment by LDC in the aquafeed sector. The Haid group is currently the largest aquafeed producer in the world and will help LDC take advantage of the growing demand for healthy protein, LDC’s chairperson noted. Similarly, sources reported that Nutreco NV, an aqua-feed supplier, was looking to purchase the assets of South Korea’s CJ CheilJedang Corp for USD 1.7 billion. Most of the major players in agricultural commodities are investing in the sector, following the advice given by Cargill’s CEO to “go long [on] fish and short [on] pork”.

In contrast, large export companies will be less interested in investing in Ukraine’s grain industry following the fraud and ensuing bankruptcy of the Agroinvest Group, the head of the Ukrainian Grain Association warned. Bunge Ukraine might lose up to 20% of its market share in the sunflower seeds market, while agribusinesses have lost up to USD 200 million because of the Agroinvest Group case, the association estimated.

Ukraine’s leading food maker, Chumak, was purchased by Delta Wilmar, a joint venture between Wilmar International and Delta Exports. A Wilmar spokesperson said the acquisition will help move further downstream into the high value-added food processing sector. Otherwise, analysts warned that low palm and palm kernel oil prices should affect the performance of plantations companies in the first half of 2019, although Wilmar reported better than expected results thanks to the tropical oils and sugar segments.

In Malaysia, the world’s largest producer of crude palm oil, FGV Holdings, said it was looking at ways to reduce its dependency on palm oil, as high stocks levels and the competition from alternatives oilseeds like soybean and sunflower were expected to continue to push down prices. Nonetheless, the biodiesel mandate in Malaysia was increased which could help draw down inventories, the group noted.

Banana experts are gathering this week in Miami to discuss some of the major issues facing the world’s most popular fruit. One of the main concerns remains the Panama disease which threatens to wipe out the Cavendish variety, the single most popular banana type grown as a monoculture around the world. But people are pointing to another less obvious problem: bananas are too cheap. Surveys estimate that it is the cheapest product on the fresh food aisle, which is a mystery considering how fast they rot and how far they have to travel. One explication, according to Equal Exchange, is that the real price is being paid for by the environment and labour forces. Only cotton has a more damaging impact on the societies where it is grown, the group estimates.

The FDA in the US published a new guidance on expiry dates which will hopefully reduce the amount of food that is unnecessarily wasted. The agency recommends that the food industry uses the term “Best If Used By” to illustrate that labels are placed for quality and not safety purposes. A majority of food products can be consumed safely beyond the date indicated on the packaging and the law only imposes a sell-by date for safety reasons on one product: infant formula. For more information, check out this video which explains that even if products are expired and smell really bad, like milk, they are still completely safe to consume.

The drive by supermarket chains to reduce the amount of plastic used is facing a major obstacle: consumers often choose convenience over sustainability. In the UK, Morrisons launched a program to encourage people to use their own containers for meat purchased at fresh food counters, but some chains like Tesco are now completely removing fresh food counters. The decision comes as consumers increasingly look to purchase products that are already sealed and ready to scan. One solution could be to work towards a middle way, such as shifting to recyclable aluminium trays which provide all the convenience of plastic packaging with a smaller environmental impact.

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Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Wilmar topped a 50-company list as the Singapore-based public company with the highest human rights disclosure standards. The group was ranked second – right after Sime Darby – in the ASEAN category. Wilmar’s chief sustainability officer pointed out that several of the highest ranking companies were involved in the palm oil business which showed that the industry was responding to consumer concern and becoming more sustainable.

Olam has issued USD 120 million in five-year fixed-rate notes to nine private investors and will use the funds to service its debt, among other things, the company said. Meanwhile, Cargill announced it was investing in cultured meat startup Aleph Farms, marking its third investment in the non-animal protein business after investing in Memphis Meats and Puris.

Nestle Brazil will be launching 25 new projects in 2019 and continues to look for potential acquisitions with a focus on organic and healthy products. A company official added that producing organic food on a large scale was a challenge, however.

In the US, organic food sales reached a record USD 48 million in 2018, up 6% on year. The Organic Trade Association said that thanks to millennials and social media the USDA Organic seal was becoming increasingly important. “Organic is now considered mainstream… In 2018, there was a notable shift in the mindset,” the association said. Interestingly, the organic market is also affected by the shift to vegetable protein with sales of organic animal protein almost stagnant.

In the UK, the ice cream brand Wall’s has tied up with two NGOs to launch a “Vanilla for Change” program to support sustainable vanilla production in Madagascar, help the farmers involved in growing the crop as well as support education in the UK. Each ice cream will have a “Track Your Impact” bar code that consumers can scan to get more information on the program. “Vanilla for Change is the first step to demonstrate our commitment to fairness across our supply chain,” Wall’s said.

Coca-Cola Amatil will be setting up some 10,000 rooftop solar panels across its bottling plants in Australia. This will help the group reduce carbon emissions but also save some AUD 1.3 million in electricity costs. By 2020, the aim is for 60% of the energy used to be from renewables or from low-carbon sources, up from 56.3% in 2018. Separately, Netflix has tied up with Coca-Cola to promote the former’s new season of Stranger Things as well as the latter’s relaunch of its New Coke. There won’t be any straightforward Coke ads on Netflix, however. Instead, the brand’s presence will be felt in the series.

US-based sustainable agriculture group Indigo Ag is working on building a ‘living map’ of the global food supply through satellite imaging and geospatial intelligence. The company said that the aim was to improve forecasting and market transparency to reduce the volatility and uncertainty of farming. The startup topped CNBC’s list of most disruptive companies last week.

A new study found that even if you’re careful when choosing your pre-prepared meals and look out for items that are low in sugar, falt and salt, you’re still likely to be consuming 500 calories per day more when eating ultra-processed foods. This is because the body produces fewer appetite suppressing hormone when ingesting processed food which means people tend to eat more of it. The scientists are not sure why this is the case, although they guessed it could be because processed food is easier and faster to eat, making it harder for the brain to register the quantities. Romania is one country looking to actively get people to shift to a healthier diet. The government just announced it would reduce the Value Added Tax (VAT) on healthy and local fresh foods from 9% to 5% to promote local agriculture and help reduce rising obesity rates.

The US Food and Drug Administration is set to start looking at how to regulate the cannabis component CBD in food on a federal level at the end of this month. Some food companies, such as Mondelez, already said they were looking into adding it to snacks and the substance is becoming increasingly popular in drinks and sweets. A Rabobank report argued that the new trend was blurring the line between the pharmaceutical and food markets. But with a 2018 study suggesting that almost half of Americans were keen to try edible cannabis, the market is expected to grow exponentially.

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Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Olam saw better results in the first quarter with net profit 6.9% higher than the same period last year, helped by a strong performance in the edible nuts and cocoa segments. In the quarter, the group acquired Indonesia’s largest cocoa processor and made a proposal to buy Nigeria’s Dangote Flour Mills, while it closed its sugar, fundamental fund and wood product businesses.

Wilmar also reported good results with earnings increasing 26% compared to last year thanks to better performance in the sugar and tropical oils business units. The oilseeds and grains segment did not perform as well, in part due to the African swine fever outbreak in China. Nonetheless, analysts suggested that Wilmar was in a good position to deal with trade tensions and that it would continue to see good results.

In contrast, experts argued that ADM was in a vulnerable position amid the breakdown in talks between the US and China. The firm weathered the trade disruptions with a better-than-expected performance last year, but this year has seen the added effects of the Midwestern floods and a struggling ethanol market. In response, the CEO highlighted that ADM was looking at acquisitions in the speciality ingredients sector, while possibly spinning off its ethanol business.

The market reacted abruptly to news of the US escalating tariffs and China’s retaliation but analysts estimate that commodity tradeflows should not be affected as most products were already under some tariffs. In addition, traders were already limiting new shipments between the two countries amid the uncertainty. Nonetheless, the viability of long term investments is now being questioned as the dispute could last for years.

US farmers are particularly worried because they expected the situation to be resolved by now, while recent weeks saw more floods affecting the Mississippi River. The government had offered growers compensation for the trade war last year, and the President mentioned that the state might spend up to USD 15 billion to buy crops this year which could be sent as international aid. The reaction from experts was quick and unanimous: buying crops to send to developing nations will backfire by upsetting world markets, and would be ineffective because the crops concerned – mainly soybeans and corn – are not for human consumption.

Moreover, dairy farmers in the US could feel the impact of the African swine fever in China for years, according to Rabobank. A lot of livestock feed is made from milk, such as whey permeate, whey powder and lactose, and the hog population in China could take years to fully recover. Exports of US whey and permeate already dropped by about 60% in March.

While some countries are busy imposing new tariffs, Chad announced this week that it removed all the import duties on major food staples like rice, flour, cooking oil and dates. The move is seen as a means to preempt shortages and the possibility of protests, such as the ones that led to the removal of Sudan’s President. Another trade news surprised the market this week, as Australia reportedly imported a shipment of wheat from Canada. Usually one of the biggest wheat exporters, Australian prices surged because of the prolonged drought.

The Australian agriculture minister recently told reporters that the country produced “the most environmentally and ethically sustainable food and fibre in the world”. However, AAP FactCheck ruled that the claim was false. The Food Sustainability Index (FSI), published by The Economist Intelligence Unit, ranks Australia as 13th out of 67 most sustainable, while the Yale Centre for Environmental Law and Policy ranks Australia as 53rd out of 177.

After the recent successful IPO of Beyond Meat, firms have been quick to announced new investments in the sector. Cargill invested in Israel’s Aleph Farms, which makes steaks from cattle cells in a lab, Impossible Food raised a further USD 300 million which valued the company at USD 2 billion and McDonald’s will start selling a new vegan burger made by Nestle in Germany.

Among all the excitement, some plant-based food producers are starting to worry about the availability of a key protein source: peas. Analysts estimate that global pea demand could quadruple by 2025 as firms moved away from soy as a protein source. Northern countries such as Canada, France, Belgium and Germany could become major pea growers, although activists are now highlighting that peas contain just as much herbicide residues as other crops. A food producer also noted that pea protein was nothing special and that it could be substituted for mung bean, brown rice, mustard seeds or lentils.

Burger King also announced that it was expanding sales of Beyond Meat Whoppers in the US. But it made a much more exciting announcement in Mexico as it started to deliver burgers to people stuck in their cars in traffic. It now plans to test the project in Sao Paulo, Los Angeles and Shanghai.

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Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Bunge reported a net profit of USD 45 million in the quarter ending March 31, up from a loss of USD 21 million last year, mostly thanks to better margins in the oilseeds segment. The firm appointed a new chief financial officer as part of another restructure – the second in less than two years. The aim, the CEO said, is to integrate regional operations into a global model which will allow faster decision making.

Louis Dreyfus is reportedly engaged in talks with investors interested in buying equity stakes. Sources say the potential investors might include China’s COFCO or Japanese trading houses. This is part of an effort to move closer to the consumer and focus on emerging markets such as Asia. COFCO, meanwhile, could see some transformations as China is working on a plan to reorganise state-owned commodity companies. Under the change, Sinograin assets could be transferred to COFCO – making it the biggest soy processor in the country.

Still in China, Cargill announced it was building a new premix plant in the Jiangxi Province, another in a series of investment in the country’s feed industry. The plant will focus on young animal nutrition and antibiotic growth promoter-free solutions. This comes at a time when the country is struggling with African swine flu. China’s pig population should fall by some 134 million heads this year, almost 30% of the country’s total population and more than the number of pigs in the US. ADM forecast that China will have to import a lot of meat to compensate, causing prices to surge in places like the US, Europe and Australia. An analyst at INTL FCStone argued this could also force China to make efforts to please the US and settle on a trade deal.

But so far it doesn’t look like this is the case. The US has threatened to impose new import tariffs on Chinese products by the end of the week after the latter went back on some of its earlier commitments. A source said the issue was that China now wanted to make the policy changes through administrative and regulatory actions instead of making legal changes. A policy expert argued this would weaken the deal and make it hard to implement.

The WTO ruled in favour of the US last week on a 2016 case against China’s tariff-rate quotas for corn, rice and wheat. China said it would look into the decision and aim to follow WTO rules but trade analysts are increasingly concerned about the WTO’s ability to ‘handle’ China. Some are even suggesting the organisation should change their rules to deal better with the country and its state-owned enterprises. Brazil, meanwhile, is hopeful that China won’t renew anti-dumping measures on sugar when they expire next year.

One of Olam’s palm plantations in Gabon, which it manages in a joint venture with the government, has been certified by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO). The tradehouse, which aims to certify all of its Gabon plantations by 2021, added that this was Africa’s first certified oil palm plantation to be completely on grassland. In the EU, some environmentalists are worried that the Commission’s ban on palm oil is likely to stall recent efforts to make the palm oil supply chain more sustainable. Producers, namely Malaysia and Indonesia, will likely look for new buyers in homes such as China and India where there is less concern about sustainability.  

The European Commission, meanwhile, is implementing a common food waste measurement methodology so that each member state can accurately assess the amount of food that is being wasted every year. In turn, each country will be able to use this information to achieve the EU’s Circular Economy Action Plan to halve per capita food waste by 2030.

The UN warned in a new report that, on top of threatening the existence of some 1 million species, the poor state of our soil could mean that within 60 years most land will be too barren to grow enough crops to feed the world. Some suggest that creating carbon farming tax credits would be a good way to encourage farmers to switch to methods which regenerates the soil’s nutrients. However, some of these methods, such as ‘no tillage’ and using ‘cover crops’, are already spreading as farmers say they lower machine and labour costs and use fewer chemicals. The bonus is that the restored soil can, in turn, absorb significant quantities of greenhouse gas. Bill Gates, meanwhile, is working on a type of crop that could store more carbon.

Vegan meat company Beyond Meat was valued USD 3.8 billion on the first day of its IPO last week – making it the highest US listing since the financial crisis. Analysts argued that part of the hype was thanks to the support of Hollywood celebrities, adding, however, that the company reported losses of USD 30 million in 2018.

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Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

The impact of the bad weather across the US Midwest and Great Plains was worse than initially expected for ADM, who reported a 41% fall in net quarterly earnings. The sweeteners, starches, ethanol and bioproduct segments all reported lower results. The company is even looking at splitting off its ethanol business, including several of its dry mills, as a result. On the positive side, the firm said it expected to see a resolution in the US-China trade war soon, which would significantly boost demand.

ADM, along with other specialty ingredient firms like Ingredion, will be competing with Tate & Lyle for new acquisition targets, analysts noted. The head of Tate & Lyle said acquisitions in the sector will be their main priority over the next 18 months. Tate & Lyle’s specialty ingredients business, which makes sugar alternatives such as stevia and sucralose, has seen a very strong growth last year. For the moment, however, the primary product branch, which makes starch-based sweeteners in North America, remains the largest segment.

In a similar vein, Cargill inaugurated a new corn processing plant in Brazil. It is designed to produce up to 30 different starch products adapted to meet changing consumer demand. The plant will be able to make non-genetically modified corn starch, as well as variants that can change food texture. Cargill reported a 15% growth in its annual profit in Brazil last year and intends to invest USD 127 million in the country in 2019.

In Southeast Asia, Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) announced that it bought a stake in one of the region’s largest poultry producers, Malaysia-based Leong Hup International, during a recent IPO. This marks LDC’s first investment in livestock and is part of an effort to “diversify further downstream”, the CEO explained. In addition, the group will also look to purchase a stake in China’s Luckin Coffee in an upcoming IPO.

Now that two US courts ruled against Bayer in glyphosate cases, analysts are saying the firm faces a potentially serious threat. Bayer reported that the number of cases related to the weedkiller had reached 13,400. The firm could absorb up to USD 5 billion in settlement costs but a settlement expense of USD 20 billion could severely impact its credit rating, experts warned. Fortunately for them, Monsanto’s purchase helped Bayer increase core earnings by 45% to USD 4.67 billion in the past quarter.

Another Monsanto project is facing legal headwinds, as activists published a paper arguing against the spread of genetically modified (GM) chestnut trees in North America. A fungal infection wiped out millions of trees in the 1900s and Monsanto helped develop a GM tree resistant to the disease which could be planted in the wild. But activists argue that the trees could spread into indigenous territory and violate tribal belief in nonintervention. Researchers, however, say the spread of the tree would be easy to keep under control.

Two major food producers, Hershey and Mondelez, said the strategy to increase prices has paid off in the first quarter. Hershey is increasing the price of 20% of its products by 2.5% this year, while Mondelez hiked the price of North American products by 2% last year, a strategy also followed by Kraft Heinz and General Mills. Hershey also benefited from a fall in cocoa costs which helped increase profit margins, while Mondelez said results were impacted by higher costs and currency fluctuations.

Mondelez International pledged this week to source 100% of its cocoa through its Cocoa Life program by 2025. About 43% of its cocoa is currently sourced through the program which offers farmers financial and educational support. However, the firm said it was already witnessing some cost inflation and crop variability due to climate change. Similarly, Nestle announced that 77% of its agricultural commodities were now deforestation-free, with the goal to reach 100% by 2020. Nestle is monitoring its entire palm oil supply chain using satellites and plans to extend the verification to pulp and soy.

Mars Inc released an unusual snack in India this week, called GoMo Dal Crunchies, which is a yellow square made from yellow peas. The launch is part of Eat Right India campaign and will be marketed with the help of Tata Trusts. While it does not sound as appetising as traditional Mars snacks, consumers are reportedly buying it for its rich iron, protein, vitamins and micro-nutrients content.

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Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Cargill is planning to invest twice as much in China in the next five years with a focus on soybean and animal protein. The company is building a Sino-US Cargill Biotech Industrial Park in partnership with the Jilin provincial government, where it also announced an investment of USD 112 million to expand its corn processing plant. The industrial park should be able to process 2 million mt of corn by 2020, will include several warehouses and house an R&D and training centre for farmers.

Olam is hoping to use some of the USD 1.6 billion it saved when it closed several business units recently – such as its sugar desk – to buy Nigeria’s Dangote Flour Mills for which it bid USD 360 million. If successful, the acquisition would double the group’s capacity in Nigeria and allow it to capitalise on the fast-growing demand for wheat-based products.

Danone’s baby food company, Bledina France, has been certified B-Corp, a certification awarded to profit-making companies that aim to have a positive social and environmental impact. Danone now has 10 B-Corp companies representing 20% of its global sales. The CEO said the goal was for the whole group – the first multinational company ever – to be B-Corp certified. In North America, Danone launched its One Planet One Health Initiative which will give out grants to create community-based projects working on designing sustainable food systems.

Unilever North America has committed to making at least half of its plastic packaging from post-consumer recycled content and making all of its plastic reusable or recyclable by 2025. Similarly, Nestle Waters North America is targeting to use 50% recycled plastic by 2025, up from 7% in 2017. The CEO said that there needed to be better systems to encourage collection, such as bottle deposits. Nevertheless, thanks to technology, he expects that achieving 100% packaging recovery is a feasible goal.

After reviewing Burger King’s plant-based Whopper burger, an official from the Missouri Farm Bureau said that it was almost impossible to tell the difference with real meat. He said, “If farmers and ranchers think we can mock and dismiss these products as a passing fad, we’re kidding ourselves.” Luckily for them, Missouri has already banned plant-based meat from being advertised as meat. A proposal in the EU could take things even further and only allow the use of terms such as ‘sausage’ or ‘burger’ for real meat on the basis that it would otherwise be misleading.

In a US class action lawsuit, cattle ranchers are suing Tyson Foods, Cargill, JBS and National Beef Packing, accusing them of colluding in offering low prices for meat since 2015. The ranchers are hoping to stop these meat packaging companies, which represent some 80% of the US fed cattle market, from exerting control over independent cattle producers and driving them out of business.

Several institutions, including the Rockefeller Foundation, have teamed up to create the Consortium for Innovation in Post-Harvest Loss & Food Waste Reduction. The aim will be for all stakeholders, from industries to NGOs and farmers, to work together on finding the best solution to reduce the estimated 1.3 billion mt of food lost every year. The director of the Rockefeller Foundation added that the consortium would work on encouraging plant-based diets as well as increasing yields, which should help reduce agriculture’s carbon emissions.

However, a recent global survey by Cargill showed that over 60% of respondents plan to continue eating just as much animal protein – if not more – and 80% are looking into adding plant-based products too. What the survey showed, according to Cargill, is that consumers believe that animal protein can be part of a healthy and environmentally conscious diet.

Similarly, a professor from the School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences argued that it would be environmentally better to have a ‘selectively pescatarian’ diet rather than scrapping meat altogether. He explained that a lot of the plant-based alternatives need to be shipped over long distances and, such as in the case of soybean, have a heavy carbon footprint. He added that “the lowest impact thing you could do is step outside your door and shoot a deer, eating native animals is really low impact.”

Finally, in Australia, some 40 well-known chefs have pledged to only use sustainable seafood as part of the Australian Marine Conservation Society’s Good Fish project. One of the chefs said it was important that his restaurant had a ‘clean’ menu.

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Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

China is reportedly looking to shift anti-dumping tariffs on US agricultural products to non-farm products under a trade deal which would see China buy some USD 30 billion/year more US farm goods. Sources say that China would only be shifting the tariffs – and not scrapping them – because the US is not planning to remove the duties on their end at all.

The deal is expected to help the US President gain farmer support but soybean farmers worry that purchases from China under such an agreement would still be below those seen before the trade war started. And farmers who grow other crops facing duties, such as cherries, pears and apples, are pushing for a comprehensive trade deal that would remove all duties, instead of just focusing on soybeans and pork. Some major sticking points are slowing down trade negotiations between the two countries, however, including China’s reluctance to accelerate the approval of GMO crops. US farmers lost up to USD 5 billion over the last five year because of the slow process, although China approved five varieties developed by Bayer and DowDuPont back in January.

As part of the current negotiations, China and the US are also working to set up a mutual “enforcement mechanism” according to which each side could impose trade sanctions unilaterally and waive its right to challenge any of these actions at the WTO. A number of experts warned, however, that this was the equivalent of putting each side in charge of assessing whether they had honoured the deal instead of relying on a neutral outside observatory. In fact, this would be the first bilateral trade agreement without any third party arbitrator, according to a former WTO judge. She added that this threatened the future of the trade organisation. But the US President, who has also been blocking the appointment of new WTO judges, is said to believe that self-interest will be a much more efficient way of getting both parties to stick to the deal.

Another one struggling to sort out trade deals is the UK. The delay in Brexit is causing further uncertainty for the British food industry. Many export and import orders have been cancelled and are unlikely to be restored given the lack of clarity on the situation. In addition, food companies say they will need to continue stockpiling, which will affect their revenues.

Talking of stockpiling, Switzerland made a controversial announcement last week as it proposed to remove coffee from its emergency stock program. The country has been accumulating stocks of food staples since the end of WWI and suggested that coffee should be removed because it “is not essential for life”. Some 15 firms, such as Nestle, are currently stockpiling 15,300mt of coffee and most are reportedly against the proposal.

Danone reported a slow growth in sales during the first quarter, including in Morocco where a boycott continues to lower sales volume. The group said it will continue to focus on local and healthier diets, such as plant-based, probiotic and low-sugar products. In the US, yoghurt consumption has been dropping steadily since 2014 and firms are looking for new products that will appeal to consumers. For one, sales of Skyr – an Icelandic yoghurt – grew 24% in the past 12 months. One of the main attractions of Skyr is that it is high in protein and low in sugar. Dairy farmers welcomed their growing popularity as these yoghurts require four times the amount of milk compared to traditional yoghurt.

The new “added sugars” labels that will be rolled out in the US in 2020/21 should lead to a saving of USD 31 billion in healthcare costs and USD 62 billion in societal costs by reducing heart disease. A new study suggested that savings could be higher still if more companies decided to reformulate their products. However, an official at Mars pointed out that it was not easy to remove sugar as it also helped with texture and volume. Reformulating for soft drinks is easier but some companies such as Coca-Cola in the UK have decided to keep the sugar unchanged in their classic soda despite the sugar tax. Pepsi, meanwhile, reported strong sales in the first quarter, which it attributed to good demand for sparkling water and low-sugar sodas.

France’s Carrefour is collaborating with Nestle and IBM to sell a pack of mashed potato with a QR code that consumers can scan to see the whole supply chain, including “the varieties of potato used, the dates and places of manufacture, information on quality control, and places and dates of storage”. The information will be stored and accessed on a blockchain developed by IBM’s Food Trust which was designed to work without a native cryptocurrency.

Also on the technology front, Olam Cocoa announced that it will start using pocket spectrometers developed by Consumer Physics, called a SCiO device, to help local traders and growers instantly assess the moisture content of their cocoa beans. This will help with quality assessment and guarantee growers a fair price, the firm explained.

Finally, Societe Generale announced that it will close its commodities and trading businesses because of the low profitably and growing burden from financial regulations. The bank joins a number of groups which have made similar moves recently, such as BNP Paribas, Koch Supply & Trading, and several hedge funds.

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Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

ADM said this week that, contrary to rumours, it was not selling its grain handling business. On the other hand, it is planning on scrapping some roles as part of a restructure to focus on being a nutrition company. The group opened a new high-tech livestock feed facility in Illinois – another addition in a long list of recent investments in animal nutrition. The CEO said that “animal nutrition is one of our key growth platforms.” ADM also invested in food-tech fund Cultivian Sandbox which just raised USD 135 million. A director at Cultivian Sandbox said they were witnessing a “democratization of technology in food” which is helping smaller groups disrupt the establishment.

Cargill too, which just announced new leadership for its Animal Nutrition segment and agricultural supply chain, is building a premix and animal nutrition plant in China. Separately, the group said it will be the first to use Rainforest Alliance Certified coconut oil to use in ice cream and confectionaries. Under the program, farmers in the Philippines and Indonesia will be trained in the sustainability standards which will also help them increase their income. A company official involved in the project said that “ethical brand positioning is an increasingly important driver.”

Cargill is expected to be one of the parties interested in buying Nestle’s Herta meat business, according to a source, which the former is looking to sell as part of its strategy to focus on healthy products. In the same vein, Nestle bought shares of Swiss-based start up Amazentis which is working on using a substance from pomegranates to create anti-ageing nutrients and dietary supplements.

In Hong Kong, Nestle has come under fire for continuing to use vanilla flavourings in baby milk powders even though it advertised as otherwise and had earlier committed to phasing out vanillin in baby products. A spokesperson for UNICEF argued that better regulations were needed, even though the WHO already bans marketing that suggests baby formula is as good as breast milk.   

Nestle announced it was buying a small stake in Europe’s largest veterinary services Independent Vetcare Group International to gather more information about pets and their owners’ needs. This comes at the same time as Nestle said it stopped procuring dairy from Martins Farms in Pennsylvania after an undercover investigation by Compassion Over Killing (COK) revealed severe animal abuse and cruelty. COK complained, however, that this was not enough to address the abuse issues.

Animal welfare activists are concerned the situation will only get worse. The US government announced it would cut the work force of federal hog plant inspectors by 40% and scrap time limits on the slaughter line. The plants themselves will be made responsible for identifying diseases and contamination, while beef plants are expected to soon follow suit. The USDA’s head vet criticised the plan, saying that the same safety de-regulations in the aircraft industry are now being blamed for the Boeing crashes.

Tesco supermarkets in the UK will follow in the footsteps of competitor Sainsbury’s and start selling vegan and vegetarian options in the meat aisle. Tesco said that changing consumer habits, including a 21% drop in UK families’ meat consumption, is forcing retailers to adapt. Another study, however, found that meat demand in the UK only dropped by a marginal 0.2% in 2018. Part of the problem is that consumers are used to cheap food, spending less than 10% of their household expenditure on food, down from 20% in the 1960s and compared to 60% in Nigeria. An organic beef farmer suggested taxing industrial meat to make it more expensive.

Another retailer adapting to consumer pressure is IKEA. The furniture king announced a plan to make all of its franchises self-sufficient in salad and herbs. It already started growing salad in a hydroponic soil-free container in Sweden, a system that uses 90% less water and half as much area as traditional farming.

Finally, a group of Georgians have responded to a NASA challenge and are working on finding ways to grow grapes – and therefore make wine – on Mars.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

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Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Kellogg announced that it has sold its biscuits, snacks and ice-cream businesses to Ferrero for about USD 1.3 billion as it seeks to focus on its core cereal brands. Nestle had also sold its US confectionery business to Ferrero in 2017, as many firms struggle with the fast-changing demand in the packaged food sector. In contrast, Ferrero’s snack division is reporting solid growth and the family-owned business has made four purchases in the US alone in the past two years.

Ferrero was rumored to be one of the firms interested in buying Australia’s Arnott’s biscuit brand and Denmark’s Kelsen Group from Campbell Soup but sources are saying that Mondelez is now the sole bidder. The deal could be worth up to USD 2.5 billion and would add to Mondelez’ growing biscuit portfolio as the firm has been purchasing fast-growing snack brands around the world.

Consolidation is also expected to happen in the agricultural trading world, although nothing has been announced so far. The head of Glencore Agri said last week that the sector needed to consolidate because it was facing a fragmented overcapacity. At the same event, the CEO of Louis Dreyfus said the firm would look to purchase regional partners and set up joint ventures in Asia.

Meanwhile, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) study looking at end-of-day prices between 2013 and 2018 found that the increase in algorithmic trading had not caused an increase in volatility, confirming the group’s decision to shelf a plan to regulate automated trading. The CME president said that algorithmic trading was “a natural evolution” which made the market more efficient.

In an attempt to refinance part of its existing debt, Olam announced that it has secured a three-year credit facility of USD 350 million, which will be linked to the firms “digital maturity score” in what is being called the world’s first “digital loan”. The process is being handled by the Boston Consulting Group which will assess the score based Olam’s digital growth.

Cargill reported USD 566 million in net earnings for the past quarter, up 14% on year as spending cuts helped offset lower revenues as a result of the ongoing US-China trade war as well as the swine fever in China. The CEO said the firm was benefiting from a push to grow in the protein business which will help make it less reliant on its trading business.

The plant-based protein segment saw some big announcements this week as Burger King announced that it will start selling Whoppers with a meatless burger made by Impossible Foods in the US. Just a day later, Nestle announced that it will start selling its plant-based burger in Europe this month, called the Incredible burger. It will launch a slightly different version, called the Awesome Burger, in the US before the end of the year. Big firms are racing to reach the market first, and get FDA approval. Beyond Meat, supported by Bill Gates, is already selling in the US, while Unilever recently purchased the Vegetarian Butcher.

Plant-based meat alternatives are seeing a rise in popularity as they are believed to have a much smaller carbon footprint, a theory this recent study confirms. The Union of Concerned Scientists found that US families were able to reduce their greenhouse emissions without affecting their nutritional intake when switching to plant-alternatives. On the other hand, they noted that red meat might still be very popular among low-income families because it remains the cheapest source of protein. The study supports the fact that individuals can make a difference, which goes against the argument that the whole food system needs to be completely overhauled for changes to be felt.

But the most surprising scientific discovery announced this week, if not ever, is that cheese will taste better if it has been aged while hip-hop music was playing in the background. Experts found that the cheese texture evolved differently when it was contained in a box with speakers. They all agreed that hip-hop cheese tasted better than rock n roll and jazz cheese.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

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