There is always a solution!

I am truly saddened to hear that Guy Hogge, former Global Head of Sustainability for Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC), has passed away after a long illness.

In his memory, I publish a short extract of a conversation we had back in 2016. It is as relevant now as it was then.

There is an old proverb that “the good die young.”  I offer my condolences to his family, friends, and colleagues.

Good morning, Guy. What are the biggest challenges that our sector faces in terms of sustainability?

One of our biggest challenges relates to the environment, particularly in terms of deforestation and the preservation of natural habitats. It is a huge challenge given the amount of food that we must produce to feed a growing population in the years and decades ahead. We must ensure that the expansion of food production does not come at a massive environmental cost.

Another enormous challenge concerns human rights and labour issues, particularly in developing countries, and especially around forced child labour and bonded labour. Trying to eradicate both from agricultural supply chains is a huge undertaking.

Where are the hot points now: palm, cotton, soy?

Palm is a concern, obviously. The anticipated expansion of soybean production in South America is attracting a lot of scrutiny.  There is concern in cotton regarding water usage in both growing and processing it, but also regarding the amount of water used in washing clothes during their life cycle—and I have no idea how to resolve that!

I read somewhere that the world will need to produce as much food in the next forty years as it did in the last 8,000 years. Can we do it?

Across a basket of the main agricultural commodities, there is currently a slowing down in the rate of increase in agricultural yields, the amount of food that each hectare produces. This trend needs to be reversed if we are to produce the food that we will need without cutting down forests or invading natural habitats. If we want to preserve those habitats—and I certainly do—we will need to see massive yield increases from limited and constrained resources like land and water.

Are you optimistic that we can feed the world in a sustainable way?

Large-scale agriculture is already relatively efficient in terms of how much of each crop is utilized. Sugarcane is a good example. The dry matter from the crushing process, the bagasse, is burnt to provide electricity both for the mill and for the surrounding areas. The sludge (vinasse) from the production process is reapplied to the land as fertilizer. Water treatment methodologies have improved tremendously to allow wastewater to be recycled and reused.

The mindset in agriculture now is to extract the maximum value from field crops and to reduce waste to a minimum. To move along that road, we need continuous improvement in technology and process efficiency. We need to use every part of the plant and recycle any waste material left over from harvesting and processing.

Africa is the one continent that is expected to see the biggest population increase. Can Africa feed itself or will it need massive food imports?

I am not an agronomist but in terms of suitable land for cultivation, I would have to say that with the proper investment Africa has the potential to be self-sufficient in food—and even to be an exporter of food. A lot of countries import food that they are perfectly capable of growing domestically.

As population and food production in Africa grows, the native flora and fauna will become increasingly under pressure. Is there any solution to this?

There is always a solution! We need to look at which areas can be brought into agricultural production, and which areas should be kept as natural habitats. There is a balance to be struck, but it requires good governance.

Many farmers in developing countries live in poverty. What can be done to improve their conditions?

Education is key, not just in general terms but specifically on husbandry techniques and yield improvement. That is tough for us to implement in areas where we as a company have no direct relationship with the farmers. In cases like that, it is the amalgamators of volume—the local cooperatives for example—that have a significant role to play in making sure that each farmer receives the necessary coaching and education.

If this isn’t done the next generation will abandon their land to seek better opportunities in the cities. This is already happening. We must incentivise that young generation—through better returns or through government support—to stay on the farms.

It is a sensitive subject as to whether agricultural land should be amalgamated to capture economies of scale, lower costs and give farmers better returns. It is a question as to how you achieve economies of scale while not harming local communities or culture. Going into a continent like Africa to farm huge concessions will invariably always have an impact on local communities. 

How do you deal with countries that have a less than perfect record in human rights or environmental sustainability? Do you engage with them, or boycott them?

In the context of sustainability, I believe that engagement is better than boycott.  Engaging with Indonesian palm oil producers, for example, can lead to positive change. The same applies to engaging with smallholder farmers as to why education for their children is more important than having a little extra help on the farm.

Avoiding questionable supply chains completely may be an easy way to refrain from dealing with an issue, but it is not the best way to inspire and encourage change on the ground. If you want to address issues you have to be involved in them.

Any other thoughts?

I want to make it clear that not everything is perfect. But we are moving in the right direction, that’s for sure. As the saying goes, “sustainability is a journey, not a destination”.

The second point I would like to make is that sustainability is one area in which we can be collaborative, even with our most ardent competitors. We can take what we do and share it with others through commodity roundtables or other networks such as industry associations and multilateral institutions. That is the only way we can have the collective brainpower to find the innovative solutions that we will need in the decades ahead.

The third point is that we need the politicians to take a neutral stance. We have recently seen some fairly worrying political thinking regarding climate change; it has been introverted and insular instead of being inclusive and collaborative. No individual, company or even country can solve these issues by themselves. But we can if we work together.

Having said that I find particularly encouraging the way that the private sector has responded to the lack of political engagement on issues like climate change. The consumer is clearly concerned about the issue, and businesses are reacting to that concern with the help of civil society. I am already greatly encouraged to see how the private sector can work together with civil society.

After all, we are all people—and we all live on the same planet!

 R.I.P.  Guy.

Commodity Conversations News Monitor

We will all soon feel the “enormous impact” of Russia’s war on Ukraine with sharply higher food prices and significant disruption to agricultural supply chains. The situation is tipping into a full-blown crisis, potentially outstripping the Covid pandemic’s blow and pushing millions more into hunger.

The head of the World Food Programme agrees that the conflict could have a catastrophic impact on the world’s poorest, putting more people at risk of starvation worldwide. He added that “the bullets and bombs in Ukraine could take the global hunger crisis to levels beyond anything we’ve seen before.”

Goldman Sachs has said the world’s farmers have little spare capacity to increase acreage while crop nutrients are too expensive to increase yields.

The FT argues that the US farmers will be especially limited, writing, “After a poor harvest last year, domestic wheat stocks are at their lowest level in 14 years. Farmers have already seeded 34.4mn acres with winter wheat, which accounts for the majority of US production, and there is a worsening drought in important winter wheat states such as Kansas.”

China’s agriculture minister has said that China’s winter wheat crop could be the “worst in history.” He explained that heavy rainfall last year delayed the planting of about one-third of the regular wheat acreage.

AgResource has reduced its estimate for Brazilian soybean production to 119.5 mln mt. The company said that when you factor in potential losses in Argentina and Paraguay, 40 mln mt of soybeans could be lost due to poor weather.

Russia’s Prime Minister has said that he will prioritize grain supplies to domestic bakeries over export markets. The Russian government is already considering banning all grain exports to the Eurasian Economic Union until September.

Ukraine’s government has banned exports of rye, barley, buckwheat, millet, sugar, salt, and meat until the end of this year. Earlier, the country had introduced export licences for wheat, corn and sunflower oil, poultry, and eggs.

Egypt has banned the export of essential staples, including flour, lentils, wheat, pasta and fava beans. The government has meanwhile blamed greedy traders for rising food prices.

Indonesia has said it will further restrict palm oil exports to increase domestic supplies. LMC International has described cooking oils as facing a perfect storm, with as much as 60 per cent of sunflower oil exports from the Black Sea region delayed due to the war.

The UN FAO has warned that “before enacting any measures to secure food supply, governments must consider their potential effects on international markets.” The FAO added that “restrictions could help to resolve individual country food security challenges in the short term, but they would drive up prices on global markets.”

China’s President Xi Jinping has said that China can no longer rely on international markets to ensure food security and should focus on domestic production.

Asia’s preference for rice over wheat could limit the fallout from reduced Black Sea wheat exports. Food inflation is relatively contained in Asia, thanks to the popularity of rice and falling pork prices.

Cargill and ADM are scaling back their business activities in Russia but will continue to operate “essential” food facilities there. In a statement, Cargill said, “Food is a basic human right and should never be used as a weapon.”

Skyrocketing prices force physical commodities trading houses to seek additional financing for margin calls on their hedge positions.

Nestle and Mondelez have followed Procter & Gamble and Unilever in halting investment in Russia. However, the four companies will continue providing essentials to maintain “continuity” of the Russian food supply.

Higher fuel prices and increased transport costs could add to the already sharp rise in world coffee prices.

In shipping, Maersk is looking to divest its minority interest in Russia’s largest terminal operator.

Meanwhile, the war may lead to a global crew shortage as Ukrainians and Russians account for nearly 15 per cent of the industry’s 1.9 million seafarers and a high proportion of its officers and ranked crew. Ukraine has conscripted men under 60 and forbidden them to leave the country. Some 140 ships and 1,000 workers are trapped in Ukraine waters, although Russia appears to be letting some ships carrying grains leave the Azov Sea.

Consolidation continues in the container-shipping sector, with Hapag-Lloyd acquiring the container liner business of Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL).

The Brazilian government has presented a National Fertilizer Plan to reduce the country’s dependency on imports from 85 per cent of its demand to 45 per cent. Brazil is the world’s fourth-biggest importer of fertilizer.

Norway’s Yara, one of the world’s largest fertilizer makers, is curtailing ammonia and urea output in Italy and France due to the surge in natural gas prices.

In environmental news, new research finds that three-quarters of the Amazon rainforest may be speeding toward a “tipping point” that could transform it into a relatively dry savanna.

A new report estimates that in the US in 2018, around 235 million pounds of herbicides and insecticides were used on corn and soy crops destined for factory-farmed animals.

The Guardian writes that the US beef industry has escaped relatively unscathed from the US President’s pledge to cut methane gas emissions by 30 per cent by 2030.

Reuters reports that US ethanol producers are betting on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to lower their greenhouse gas emissions.

Maersk wants to jump-start the green methanol market to help them ditch fossil fuels. The company could buy at least 730,000 tons of methanol per year by 2025.

Bloomberg Green has an excellent video on how technology could help the global shipping industry ‘go green’.

Finally, Visual Capitalist has a good piece on the enormous scale of US food waste.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

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Commodity Conversations News Monitor

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created “the shock of a lifetime” in global commodity markets, with the fastest increase in prices since the 1960s or 1970s. Wheat (at the time of writing) is up 40 per cent on the week. One analyst called it “the modern-day equivalent to the 1974 Great Grain Robbery.”

Russian forces have closed off Black Sea shipments, leaving buyers scrambling for alternative supplies. Canada can’t help because drought reduced its grain inventories by 38 per cent from a year earlier. However, India could export a record 7 million tonnes of wheat in 2021-22.

The US Agriculture Secretary said it’s premature to project what will happen to agricultural exports from the Black Sea, but “the biggest areas of concern would be the Middle East and North Africa that do need those products to be able to feed their people.”

Chinese buyers bought about 20 cargoes of American soybeans and about ten cargoes of corn this week after the Chinese government encouraged state-owned companies to search for oil and gas, iron ore, barley, and corn.

The FT has written about “the weaponization of commodity trading.” A former US official told the newspaper, “Commodities have been weaponized for a long, long time. It was always a question of when does a state pull the trigger.”

Farmers worldwide are scrambling to lock in fertilizer supplies as prices once again head higher. Canada’s Nutrien, the world’s biggest fertilizer producer, said that the war could result in prolonged disruptions to the global supply of potash and nitrogen crop nutrients. India, meanwhile, has set up a rupee-clearing account to pay for urea imports from Iran.

Palm oil prices have also shot up as markets scramble to find alternatives to shipments of sunflower oil stuck in Black Sea ports. India has asked Indonesia to increase palm oil shipments to compensate for the loss of sunflower oil supplies. Meanwhile, Palm oil has become the most expensive of the four major edible oils for the first time.

Since last December, the USDA has progressively lowered its forecast for soybean production in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay by more than 18 million tonnes. It now expects the smallest crop since 2018/19. However, heavy rains in Argentina’s farm belt – and expectations of more to come – are alleviating fears about a prolonged drought. There is even concern that there may be too much rain.

Societe Generale and Credit Suisse have stopped financing commodities trading from Russia. (The two banks are key financiers to commodity trade houses.) Commodity trading companies have told Reuters that Russian commodity flows will remain severely disrupted until clarity is established over what is sanctioned and what is exempted.

Nestlé has reopened its factories and warehouses in central and western Ukraine to ensure essential food and drink deliveries. The Swiss-based group has three factories and around 5,000 employees in Ukraine.

Although sanctions don’t yet target Russian energy exports or (non-military) containerized goods, many tanker owners and container liner operators are pre-emptively pulling out of Russia. Moller-Maersk, Ocean Network Express, MSC, and Hapag Lloyd have temporarily halted all container shipping to and from Russia.

Shipping lines are likely to come under increased scrutiny from the US Department of Transportation and the US Department of Justice over rising rates. However, the Federal Maritime Commission said that, for now, there is no evidence of wrongdoing.

Progress is being made to build the world´s first large-scale commercial e-Methanol production facility in time for the delivery of Maersk’s large dual-fuel methanol ready containerships in the second half of 2023.

Chevron has agreed to buy green diesel producer Renewable Energy Group for $3.1 billion. Renewable is a large producer of biodiesel and renewable diesel. Meanwhile, Marathon Petroleum Corp will form a joint venture with Finnish refiner Neste for its Martinez renewable fuels project in California. Neste will contribute $1 billion to the project.

Trade associations representing the world’s major trading firms have warned the European Commission that their plan to prevent commodities linked to deforestation from entering the EU market is “technically and effectively not feasible.”

A study published in Nature Sustainability shows that carbon loss from tropical deforestation in the last two decades has doubled and continues to rise, mainly driven by agricultural expansion.

Brazil’s cattle ranchers are trying to reduce methane emissions through “intensification” – keeping 15 animals per hectare, instead of fewer than one – and slaughtering the animals at 18 rather than 30 months.

Finally, in a special report on sustainable agriculture, the FT writes about the adverse effects of climate change and higher temperatures on farmworkers.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

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A Conversation with Devashish Chaubey

Good morning, Devashish. Could you please briefly describe your career so far and your current role within Olam?

I am head of rice and speciality grains within Olam. When I say speciality grains, I mean superfoods like quinoa, chia, and sorghum.

How significant a business is rice for Olam?

Rice currently employs roughly 2,000 people, and we rank second in terms of global volumes traded.

We operate a large rice farm in Nigeria – and we are a significant player in Nigeria’s domestic rice market.

In geographies such as Vietnam, we operate mills but also buy rice from millers. In origins where we don’t have mills, we buy rice from millers and then upgrade/reprocess the rice to our customers’ specifications. We have reprocessing facilities in Thailand and India that upgrade milled rice.

We sell to importers in various geographies, and in some we import ourselves and distribute the rice through the general trade and modern retailers.

 What are the biggest challenges that you face as a rice trader?

Counterparty risk is the biggest challenge for rice traders generally. The challenge is to build a deep sense of reliability and faith with your customers.

Managing price volatility is our second challenge, especially with climate change. In 2008, there was a drought-induced production shortfall in SE Asia and this severely impacted world trade flows and price. Any production shortfall in a major producer can have a significant impact on price. One example is Australia. The country swings from an excellent crop to a small crop primarily depending on water supply.

Climate change exacerbates the situation. Up until 2018, Thailand used to produce 10-11 million tonnes of exportable rice. This year, Thailand will export maybe 5-6 million tonnes. Thailand’s water reserves available for irrigation have lately not been enough, and they have experienced a rainfall shortage for the past few years. It has affected global supply and driven prices higher.

What are the main sustainability issues in rice?

Rice has more sustainability issues than most other staple crops, ranging across environmental and social issues. When you consider that one-quarter of all the farmers in the world grow rice, you realise how important it is to address these sustainability issues correctly.

Smallholder farmers account for nearly all the rice production in SE Asia. Most are in poor areas, which means a high correlation between rice farming and poverty. There is also a 65 per cent correlation between rice and malnourishment in regions where rice is either the main staple or the largest consumed crop. Rice has significant social issues.

If you take environmental issues, rice is the second-largest man-made emitter of methane after livestock. Rice emits about 12 per cent of all man-made methane and about 2.5 per cent of all man-made GHG emissions. That is significant from an environmental standpoint.

Methane emissions are high because rice is farmed in most areas through flood irrigation. Farmers flood the rice fields to stop weeds from growing. It leads to high methane emissions and freshwater use.

Rice uses about one-third of the world’s freshwater availability each year. You need on average 2,500-3,000 litres of water to produce one kilo of rice. Although that sounds alarming, some other field crops have similar figures. But even so, moving away from flood irrigation would not only reduce methane emissions but would also reduce water withdrawals.

Tell me a little about your farm in Nigeria.

At one time, Nigeria was the world’s second-largest rice importer after China, buying between 3 and 4 million tonnes a year – spending a lot of precious foreign exchange in the process.  Nigeria has the climatic conditions, the land, the people, and the water resources it needs to grow rice.

About ten years back, the Nigerian government encouraged their population to take up rice farming, giving them incentives to do it. The government also encouraged corporate investors to begin rice farming, giving out tax incentives and providing them with tracks of land with adequate water resources.

Olam now manages 13,000 hectares of contiguous land in Nasarawa State in central Nigeria, of which we farm 4,500 hectares. We keep some in preserved lands, forests, wetlands etc., to encourage biodiversity.

We realised that the only way we could farm 4,500 hectares would be to have it fully mechanised. Our farm is probably one of the most modern rice farms that exist. It is fully mechanised and integrated. We have a rice mill at the farm where we mill the paddy. We seed, apply fertiliser, pest and weed care aerially. All our harvesting is mechanised.

We run a large seed development unit on the farm. Historically, there has been insufficient investment into developing high-yielding seed varieties suitable for Africa. When we tried the rice varieties that grow in Asia, we found that they were often not suitable. The soil and the agroclimatic conditions are not the same. So, we set up a research and development centre and a plant breeding station. While the varieties we currently grow on the farm are bred by research agencies in Asia and Africa, we should have in-house varieties over the next few years.

Has the project helped the local community?

Although fully mechanised, our farm has brought employment to a rural area where little existed before. We have also built schools and clinics.

But that is the minor part of what we do. The more significant element is the out-growers programmes that we run for about 32,000 growers. We share developments that take place on our farm, whether in varietals, nutrition or pest and disease management.

Wageningen University has studied our out-growers programme in Nigeria. Our out-growers programme raised incomes, got more women and young people involved, and improved environmental sustainability. Farmers are now conscious and more concerned about the environment than they were before. Furthermore, our interventions are reducing food loss in the value chain which, for our farmers, is 30 per cent.

Thank you, Devashish, for your time and input!

This is a short extract from Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade Them available on Amazon.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

Commodity Conversations News Monitor

“In war, truth is the first casualty.” So wrote Aeschylus, a Greek tragic dramatist, in the 5th century BCE.  His words are as valid now as they were then. In the western world, we are fortunate to have strong independent media. We should never take it for granted.

Commodity exports from the Black Sea have been thrown into chaos after Russia’s invasion forced ports and railways to close. Ships loading in Ukraine have been told they will be allowed to leave, but those waiting to berth can’t dock. A missile hit a vessel in Ukrainian waters but sailed into Rumanian waters unaided. At least one other ship has suffered damage.

Bunge and ADM have suspended operations in Ukraine following the invasion, and some European banks have imposed restrictions on commodity-trade finance linked to Russia and Ukraine. At least two of China’s largest state-owned banks are also restricting financing for Chinese purchases of Russian commodities.

Chicago corn and wheat prices surged following the invasion, and analysts worry that the sky is now the limit for food inflation. Unsurprisingly, investors are pumping more money into commodity funds than at any time in the last decade.

China confirmed that it had lifted restrictions on the imports of Russian wheat, a decision taken before the winter Olympics in Beijing.

Russia is a significant fertiliser exporter, and prices for nitrogen fertiliser in New Orleans surged 25 per cent following the invasion. Fertiliser shortages may hit the US growing season, and the US Agriculture Secretary warned fertiliser companies against taking an “unfair advantage” of the Ukraine conflict.

A backlog of vessels waiting to load soybeans from some Brazilian ports is stretching to near-record lengths, with some ships waiting for more than 40 days, significantly longer than the seven to 15 days that’s typical. Meanwhile, ADM has shipped a record (for the port) 84,802 tonnes of soybeans in a single vessel from the Ponta da Montanha Grain Terminal (TGPM) in the northern Brazilian city of Barcarena.

The Loadstar has a well-written piece that asks whether the container shipping crisis is coming to an end. The US Transportation Department is awarding $450 million in grants for US port-related projects to bolster capacity and improve the movement of goods. Platts hosts a discussion on potential applications for ammonia as a maritime fuel.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has warned that Argentina’s crop yields for corn and soybeans could continue to fall owing to a lack of rain. Paraguay’s oilseed processors are lobbying the government to allow duty-free soybean imports for the first time to keep their mills running as a drought slashes local production.

Bunge has signed a definitive agreement with Chevron to create a 50/50 joint venture to produce renewable fuels and develop lower carbon intensity feedstocks. The financial terms of the transaction, first announced in September 2021, were not disclosed.

The US EPA has told Reuters that it is committed to increasing the use of biofuels, but the industry is still anxiously awaiting the administration to finalise specific blending goals.

Hydrous ethanol sales in the Center-South region of Brazil rose 22 per cent in the first half of February compared with the same period a month earlier, a trend that may continue with energy prices rising.

Beyond Meat is not real meat, but it bleeds cash. The company’s stock dropped 11 per cent after it reported losses of $80.4 million in the last three months of 2021 — more than triple the loss of a year before. The company blamed weak US retail sales, increased discounts, and a loss of market share. An analyst from J.P. Morgan called Beyond Meat “the worst performer in our universe in the last year.”

Draft new rules (seen by Bloomberg) would allow victims to sue for compensation in a proposed EU crackdown on human rights abuses and environmental breaches in supply chains. Right on cue, the World Economic Forum writes that mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence are now essential for any business.

Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Cafe-Cacao, plans to start a pilot program in April to trace cocoa from plantation to ports. For years, agronomists have told cocoa and coffee farmers in West Africa to uproot trees from their fields. This video (in French) argues that advice is misguided and explains how trees fertilise and protect surrounding crops.

The Inter-American Development Bank has shelved a plan to lead a $200 million syndicated loan for Marfrig Global Foods amid growing concern over deforestation in the Amazon.

The US and the UAE are seeking an additional $4 billion investment for the Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate (AIM for Climate) on top of the $4 billion that they agreed when they launched the initiative last November.

The sustainability charity Wrap has asked supermarkets to stop selling fresh produce in plastic packaging. They argue that it does not make them last longer and adds to pollution and food waste. Next week, world governments will gather in Nairobi to discuss a global treaty to combat plastic waste.

The UK’s National Farming Union President has warned that farmers in England and Wales ‘face toughest times in a generation’. She said that government ministers “have no understanding of how food production works” and have introduced “completely contradictory policies” through the lack of a post-Brexit plan for UK farming.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

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A conversation with Jean-Luc Bohbot

Good morning, Jean-Luc. What is Wilmar’s position now in the sugar business?

We are the only global, fully integrated sugar company involved all along the supply chain. We produce sugar from both cane and beet. We are refiners, traders, distributors, and we have our brands.

We have 24 mills worldwide: eight in Australia, seven in India, seven in Morocco, and two in Myanmar. We process about 21 million tonnes of cane and 6 million tonnes of beet globally per year. All that adds up to an annual sugar production of approximately 3.5 million tonnes.

In addition to our cane and beet mills, we also have nine refineries: two in Indonesia; two in Australia; one in New Zealand; two in India; one in Saudi Arabia; one in Morocco – in total, about six million tonnes of refining capacity.

Without double-counting, we have an annual trading volume of around 16 million tonnes. In terms of distribution, retail and the food industry, we do about 3.5 million tonnes. We manage various consumer brands, for example, Chelsea in New Zealand, CSA in Australia, Madhur in India, Gazelle, and others in Morocco.

Our business model is to have our assets and trading fully integrated, where trading contributes to the asset performance using the assets’ ‘captive’ volumes.

Which countries have the most significant impact on the sugar price?

Two countries drive the price on the supply side. Brazil is the first, with about 60 per cent of the world export market. India is the second, with big swings in production and exports and a hefty dose of politics. India always has the potential to destabilize market equilibrium in one direction or another.

China drives the price on the demand side. It is the world’s biggest importer of sugar, and domestic demand continues to grow. It’s not just sugar. China is a major importer of grains and soybeans. These commodities, along with sugar, are of strategic importance to the country. China operates a system of strategic reserves. It often makes it difficult to predict whether they will meet domestic demand, or part of domestic demand, by running down stocks or through imports.

What are the other price drivers?

The world is going through an energy revolution of decarbonization, transiting from fossil to renewable fuels. We are just at the beginning of this revolution.

Developing countries face a more significant challenge than developed countries. Not only do they have to manage existing demand, but they must also manage two-digit growth in energy demand. It is an important issue for them. To reduce GHG emissions, they must react strongly and quickly. Bioenergy could play a growing role in the range of options offered to control footprint emissions.

Today, sugar is highly correlated to energy – particularly crude oil – due to the link in Brazil and, increasingly, in India. Brazil can swing 30 to 70 per cent of the sugar or ethanol ratio production – that’s a lot of sugar! Ethanol can also play a key role in hydrogen as an energy source. It could also be used in jet fuel.

This energy revolution will impact all agricultural commodities, and there will be increasing convergence between agriculture and energy – green energy.

At the same time, climate change is making the weather increasingly unstable and unpredictable. This year, we have drought across the Americas, frosts in Southern Brazil and floods in Europe. I can’t say for sure that climate change is producing these dramatic weather shocks, but I feel that they are a foretaste of what is to come.

Agricultural commodities, whether sugar or soybeans, depend too heavily on a few countries to produce them; weather shocks in these few countries have a multiplier effect on production and price.

Are you worried that electric vehicles (EVs) might negatively impact ethanol demand?

Not really.

Leaving aside deforestation, Brazil is one of the least polluting countries globally, thanks to hydroelectric power, ethanol, and bagasse. Ethanol produces 70 per cent less CO2 than gasoline. Brazil is a world leader in terms of GHG emissions from transport. Why would Brazil change its energy matrix to include EVs, considering the investment they would need to build the charging infrastructure?

EVs are a solution for Europe and the US – countries that can afford to invest massively in the necessary charging infrastructure or for local cars in highly polluted big cities like in China. Many countries don’t have the capital to build the required charging infrastructure. It will lead to a backlash against EVs and a slowdown in demand growth. EVs are great for people in rich countries who don’t drive long distances or remain within a specific range of their homes or offices.

Ecologists like EVs, but the GHG footprint of EVs depends on how you produce the electricity. India produces over 70 per cent of its electricity from coal. About 20 per cent of the lifetime GHG footprint of an electric car occurs during its manufacture. When, on top of that, you use coal electricity, your final GHG footprint is not a positive contribution. It is no surprise that India is making a significant move towards ethanol.

In China, coal provides most of the electricity. It is fossil fuel electricity, not green electricity. EVs won’t help China or India significantly transition from fossil fuels; instead, they will keep them in place. Natural gas is 50 per cent less polluting than coal but is still 20 to 30 per cent more polluting than ethanol. The transition in developing countries will be towards a mix of solutions, but with ethanol playing a more prominent role.

There is also a question of how long it will take to replace the existing fleet with EVs. The average car in India is 15 years old. It will take years for the country to move to EVs, and the world can’t wait that long. We need an urgent solution. Ethanol is a cheap and immediate option for developing countries to reduce their CO2 emissions from road transport.

 Thank you, Jean-Luc, for your time and input.

This is a short extract from Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade Them available on Amazon.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

Commodity Conversations News Monitor

The head of Cargill’s World Trading Group has said that soybean prices could hit all-time highs. Cargill estimates US carryout stocks are “significantly lower” than USDA’s figures and feels that 27 to 28 million mt of S. American soybean production have been lost.

Dry weather and little hope of significant rains in Argentina’s soy belt are igniting fears of a repeat of 2018 when drought drove the harvest to below 38 million mt. The current forecast is for 40.5 million mt.

Chinese importers have washed out about ten cargoes of Brazilian beans in the past week as several soybean crushing plants in China have suspended operations due to poor/negative margins.

After a fire broke out, Louis Dreyfus briefly suspended operations at its Claypool, Indiana, soybean processing and biodiesel plant. No employees were injured, and the fire was quickly extinguished.

The first two months of 2022 are the driest January and February in Californian history, prompting state officials to warn of dire water shortages. The drought in the western US is the worst in at least 1,200 years

California is looking to reduce methane emissions by cutting food waste. It accounts for 20 per cent of the state’s methane emissions, third behind dairy manure and cow burbs. Meanwhile, European farmers are increasingly looking at opportunities to use their soils as carbon sinks as various startups enter the sector.

The USDA has restarted its avocado inspection program in Mexico, and avocado exports to the US have resumed. The USDA had earlier suspended imports after a US plant safety inspector received a threat. Activists claim that Mexico’s avocado producers must pay protection money to drug cartels.

India will extend a reduction in customs duty on edible oils to the end of September. India has also cut its tax on crude palm oil imports to 5 per cent from 7.5 per cent. The FT has a nice article on the Nigerian government’s plans to boost domestic agriculture and palm oil production.

HMM, a South Korean shipping company, has reported a $4.4 billion net profit for 2021, compared with just $100 million in 2020, as sales more than doubled to $11.5 billion. The carrier returned to the black in Q3 2020 after being on the brink of bankruptcy.

The European Association for Forwarding, Transport, Logistics and Customs Services (CLECAT) has sent a letter to the EU Commission, asking for an investigation into the container shipping sector, alleging unfair and discriminatory practices.

A new study estimates that the world spends at least $1.8 trillion a year on subsidies that contribute to ecosystem destruction and species extinction. Of that amount, $520 billion goes to agriculture and $155 billion to forestry. The Guardian asks why the world is still funding the destruction of nature through misdirected and unthought out farm subsidies.

Another new study argues that ethanol is 24 per cent more carbon-intensive than gasoline due to emissions from land-use changes, along with processing and combustion. The US RFA said the study was “completely fictional and erroneous” and the authors used “worst-case assumptions [and] cherry-picked data.”

US biofuel producers have asked Congress for tax credits under the Build Back Better program to help boost the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

After surging 53 per cent in 2020, sales of plant-based meats increased only 1 per cent in 2021. Bloomberg looks at how the sector is reacting by collaborating with processed food producers.

Bayer has declared force majeure on sales of glyphosate to industrial customers after a critical supplier ran into manufacturing problems. Repairs at the supplier could take about three months.

Bloomberg Green has an interesting article on Chinese gene-edited seawater rice. It’s more resistant to saline and alkali than standard rice varieties – and has a slightly higher yield. Meanwhile, researchers have developed gene-edited wheat resistant to powdery mildew, one of the most damaging pathogens for wheat farmers.

Nestlé has reported its strongest growth in developed markets in a decade. Sales rose 7.5 per cent, with a 2-percentage point rise coming from price increases. Coffee was the most significant contributor to growth. The company said profitability might decline in 2022, warning that raw material and shipping costs will probably increase.  The CEO said the company would be “open to do a big deal” after selling $10 billion of shares in L’Oréal.

The Daily Beast has a long read on how organic food could doom the future of farming – something that I have been pondering for a while.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

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A Conversation with Alex Sanfeliu

 Good morning, Alex. Could you please tell me a little about yourself?

I joined Cargill in Barcelona in 1995 as a junior trader and moved to Geneva in 2000 as a wheat trader for Europe and the Black Sea. In 2003, I transferred to the bean desk, eventually becoming soybean meal desk head by 2007. In 2010, I moved to corn as desk head, and, in 2014, I became the Business Group Leader in our World Trading Group (WTG).

The WTG sits at the centre of Cargill in terms of agricultural commodity trading. From here, we manage and lead the whole organisation for all our trading in wheat, corn, beans, meal, vegetable oils, palm, and softs. I am effectively the trading manager for Cargill in the agricultural space.

 Which of your roles have been the most fun and which have been the most stressful?

Trading is my passion, so I have enjoyed all my roles. I had the most fun as a desk-head, a job which is 120 per cent focused on trading. Wheat is my favourite commodity because of the different countries and qualities involved and because it switches quickly between deficit and surplus. You must be agile to trade wheat. It usually has the highest volatility of all Agri commodities, which means it gives you plenty of opportunities throughout the year. My second favourite is vegetable oil, again because of its optionality and trading opportunities.

Physical defaults are the most stressful part of my job. The most difficult ones to predict are usually politically driven, like when there is regime change in a country or a financial or forex turmoil that results in commodity defaults. The stressful part is that our jobs turn into limiting losses instead of capturing opportunities; it is like playing to tie instead of to win.

The agricultural supply chains have shown resilience during the recent pandemic. How do you explain that resilience?

Agricultural supply chains are efficient and flexible. Our business is not a high margin one, and we constantly strive to keep costs down. We must be efficient to be successful and adapt to changing environments. COVID was unique, but we have had other unusual events over my career and had to adapt quickly to changing circumstances.

The second point is that our sector is not labour intensive – crushing plants and feed mills do not require a large labour force to operate. Many agricultural workers spend most of their time outside, whether on a farm or an elevator; they do not work in offices where people sit close together. As for our offices, we operated from home right from the beginning of the pandemic. At one point, we had 60,000 Cargill people working from home, and things went perfectly.

We tend to say that Cargill shines when things get tough. It happened in 2008, and it happened again in 2020. Challenges drive us. Resilience is in our DNA.

Agricultural commodity pricing has become more transparent, but Cargill has continued to operate profitably. What is the secret?

I must be careful not to reveal all our secrets, but part of our success results from our ability to reinvent ourselves constantly. Being a private company makes this easier. It allows us to have more of a long-term view than some of our competitors and to pay less attention to short-term results.

Agricultural commodity prices are cyclical. Trading companies tend to downsize in quiet times, reducing investments in data, analytics, and infrastructure. We do the opposite. Margins shrunk in the flat markets from 2014 to 2018, and it was tough to make money as a trader in low volatile and oversupplied markets. We used that period to invest in data, analytics, systems, and people. When the tide changed, we were ready to take advantage of the opportunities that appeared. There is only a narrow spread between excellence and doing average in quiet markets. When things get more exciting and volatile, that spread widens considerably.

We have three further advantages when it comes to trading.

First, Cargill is present in most geographies and is all along the food supply chain. We have data that goes from the farm to the fork. Second, we have long experience successfully developing trading talent and knowledge of agricultural markets. Third, we have invested heavily in new technologies such as Artificial Intelligence or Machine Learning. Combining those three elements – data, top trading talent, and technology – gives you a winning combination.

Do you envisage a day when agricultural supply chains no longer need intermediaries?

I don’t like the word intermediary. We are not intermediaries. We don’t just buy something and try to sell it at a profit. We originate, transport and process agricultural commodities. We operate silos, warehouses, port elevators, ships, and factories, and we add value at every stage of the supply chain.

What advice would you give to someone starting in the business?

First, I would ask them to enjoy what they do. They need to be true to themselves. Do you love the job or not? There is no middle pathway in trading. Trading attracts people because of the excitement and the financial rewards, but you quickly discover whether you love it or hate it once you are there. You need to love it. It is an intense and challenging job, so you better enjoy it!

Second, I would advise a recruit never to stop learning! You will be quickly left behind if you stop learning. You can quickly go from excellence to obsolescence.

Third, I would tell a recruit to stay humble. A big ego is the enemy of many traders. There is nothing to gain from having a big ego. The best traders that I have seen in my career have been humble.

Thank you, Alex, for your time and comments!

This is a short extract from Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade Them available on Amazon.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

Commodity Conversations News Monitor

Russia has reportedly pulled back on the idea of a naval blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov, although naval exercises in the Black Sea continue to impact grain shipments. However, the situation remains uncertain and could stay that way for a while. Russia and Ukraine account for more than 25 per cent of global wheat shipments, and markets moved higher last week on invasion fears. The FT writes that food and fertilizer will become the next friction point between Russia and the EU.

Canadian police are slowly removing protestors blocking the Ambassador Bridge, one of the main border crossings into the US. Some companies are turning to air transport to avoid the blockade.

The USDA has launched its Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities program and will invest $1 billion to promote farming, ranching and forestry practices that cut greenhouse gas emissions or capture and store carbon.

One in three people across America has detectable levels of a toxic herbicide 2,4-D. The herbicide was developed in the 1940s, but its popularity dipped in favour of Roundup (glyphosate). It has seen a resurgence since the spread of Roundup-resistant weeds.

In their latest Land of Plenty Report, the UK WWF has called for the UK government to invest more in regenerative agriculture, arguing that it could slash emissions equivalent to taking 900,000 cars off the roads.

Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon totalled 430 square kilometres in January, five times more than January 2021. New clearing in January was still less than half of what is common during the peak months from June to September.

In Colombia’s Amazon region, fires suggest rising deforestation for ranching and illegal mining. The burning is occurring in Caqueta, Meta and Guaviare provinces, where it creeps into national parks and parts of the Amazon rainforest.

More than 1,000 sq km of Amazon rainforest has been felled to grow soya in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso since the Amazon soy moratorium was signed in 2006. However, degradation in the Amazon Forest was responsible for more carbon loss than deforestation between 2010 and 2019.

The Chinese government’s recently released guidelines of gene-edited crops should boost research into new wheat varieties. Meanwhile, China wants to become a world leader in sustainable agriculture.

Recent data shows China missed its commitments to purchase an additional $200 billion worth of US farm and manufactured goods, energy and services under the Phase 1 trade deal agreed with President Trump

Tyson Foods uses as much as 10 million acres of farmland to produce corn and soybeans to feed the more than 2 billion animals it processes every year in the US alone, according to a new study by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

Bunge reported a 17.1 per cent jump in quarterly profit as large oilseed crops in North America and Europe and strong demand for processed meal and oil bolstered its core agribusiness unit. The company forecast that the strength would carry into 2022 but warned that it would likely not match last year’s record performance.

Indonesia has expanded the scope of a January ruling, which required suppliers to declare their export plans of crude palm oil olein and used cooking oil, to include all palm oil products.

The soaring cost of vegetable oils makes it harder for India to bring inflation under control. Palm oil prices have jumped 15 per cent this year, while soybean oil has gained 12 per cent. India’s consumer food price index rose in December at the fastest pace in six months. The Indian government has tried to rein in domestic vegoil prices by reducing import taxes, imposing stockpile limits and suspending futures trading in edible oils and oilseeds.

Bloomberg feels that the rise in vegoil prices is a sure sign that food inflation could go higher, although palm oil prices saw some profit-taking last week.

The UN FAO has warned that the overexploitation of fish in West Africa by the growing global fishmeal and fish oil industry is having a “considerably negative impact” on food security, undermining the ability of local communities to feed themselves.

Exchange certified stocks of arabica coffee beans have fallen to their lowest level since February 2000, mainly because it’s more attractive for Brazilian producers to sell into the domestic market rather than pay high shipping costs to deliver the commodity at the exchange.

Jordan wants to kick start domestic agriculture and regain food sovereignty by planting wheat on abandoned farmland.

The price of lumber has risen nearly 30 per cent so far in February, hitting $1,204.90 per thousand board feet. Still, lumber is 30 per cent below its record high of $1,711 reached in May 2021.

A fight is brewing in Mexico over corn imports. In December 2020, the Mexican president issued a decree banning the import of GM corn for human consumption by 2024. The US argues that the ban will violate the USMCA free trade deal.

The World Shipping Council has published what it believes are the regulatory and economic steps that the International Maritime Organization must take for the shipping industry to achieve zero carbon emissions.

Shipping lines added a record 7.2m teu, or 14 per cent, to the global container equipment fleet last year, taking it to 50.5m teu.

Reuters finds signs that the global supply chain crisis could finally start to unwind towards the end of this year. However, trade channels have become so clogged up it could be well into next year before the worst-hit industries see business remotely as usual.

Central banks are also worried that supply chain problems will continue through 2022 and that the container line’s record profits will translate into higher inflation. Although some suggest that US port congestion may have peaked, Maersk CEO’s has said that supply chain issues are not getting much better.

Maersk has acquired US-based forwarder Pilot Freight Services for $1.8 billion, the latest in a string of acquisitions transforming the company into a global logistics outfit.

The container shipping company Danaos reported a sevenfold increase in net income in 2021 at $1.05 billion. Danaos was on the verge of bankruptcy in 2018.

The shipping companies’ massive profits are fuelling resentment and criticism of the sector’s concentration and alliances.

Shares in European food delivery firms have fallen sharply, with investors losing patience with continual losses and rising costs.

The UK government has announced a review of the pig industry supply chain in response to a worsening crisis in the sector where an estimated 200,000 pigs are backed up on farms, unable to be taken to slaughter.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

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A conversation with Dave Whitcomb

Good morning, Dave. Could you tell me a little about yourself and your background in commodity trading?

In 2004, I joined Cargill’s pension fund management team at their headquarters in Minneapolis, Minnesota. In 2010, I moved to Cargill’s grain trading group in Geneva to help build what they called their Non-Fundamental Analysis (NFA) group.

I founded Peak Trading & Research in 2018 as a quantitative agricultural research and trading company, where I’m currently the Head of Research.

How do non-fundamentals affect the markets?

The contract price will always converge with the cash (physical commodity) price when a futures contract expires. However, as a percentage of market participation, the number of players who use futures to source or deliver cash is decreasing. At the same time, the total number of players trading non-fundamental inputs has increased.

Until they expire, futures contracts will often make significant moves based on non-fundamental factors such as macroeconomic data and momentum trader flows.

You may be bearish based on your S&D balance sheet. Still, the macro-economic environment may be bullish – it’s challenging to stay short if crude oil is going up, the dollar is down, and inflation expectations are rising. You also need to take seasonal factors into account. Is it a time of year when prices typically move higher? You must also look at momentum; is it pointing upwards?

What does every fundamental trader need on their non-fundamental dashboard?

We refer to the non-fundamental price drivers in agriculture markets are the “Four Ms”: Monthly seasonality, Macro, Momentum, and Market Structure.

Agricultural markets have strong seasonal price patterns. Every commodity is different, but we see predictable and consistent seasonal patterns across most grains, oilseeds, meats, and softs.

Macro-flows are critical for agricultural markets: macroeconomic data, central bank policies, currencies, and energy, particularly crude oil.

Momentum is our third M. Many hedge funds focus on momentum as a reason to get into or out of markets. They try to catch the big moves, especially at the front edge of the futures curve. Momentum traders try to stick to the most liquid part of the curve.

Market structure is our fourth M. Fundamental traders must be aware of the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports showing how market players like hedge and index funds are positioned. Are they over-extended, either long or short? How vulnerable are those positions, given what prices are currently doing? Will we see a long liquidation, or, if they are short, will we see a short squeeze?

Can a fundamental trader be successful now just trading fundamentals?

It isn’t easy. Markets see cash convergence at expiry, but in the meantime, futures are increasingly following non-fundamental inputs. Traders who trade non-fundamentals continue to attract capital and are having more impact on our markets.

There’s a lot of focus on inflation right now – how is that affecting the markets?

The easy money is probably behind us. The Fed has announced that it will start tapering, winding down its Quantitative Easing (QE) purchases. We could have hikes in interest rates in the middle of 2022. Central banks are now actively working against inflation. It doesn’t mean that inflation can’t continue. One year ago, central banks were trying to manufacture inflation. They are now slowly shifting to capping inflation. Over time it will take some wind out of the sails of this supercycle story.

What would you put on a macroeconomic dashboard for agriculture traders?

Every trader should watch the US dollar and Crude Oil.

For the US dollar, we often say, ‘US dollar up = Ags down.’ Most of our markets are dollar-denominated, and changes in the dollar can impact the competitiveness of US products. A strong dollar encourages origin selling and acreage expansion while making US products less competitive.

Crude oil also matters for the ag markets. Strong energy markets ripple through the ags in many ways: higher fertiliser prices, production costs, transportation costs, etc. Then there are the secondary impacts like hedge funds buying futures because crude oil is going up. Energy market strength lifts ag futures prices in many different ways.

Beyond crude oil and the dollar, it’s essential to watch US and Chinese stock markets, commodity currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollar and the Russian rouble, bond and inflation markets.

What you have on your dashboard depends on the market you trade. Every commodity has its unique set of macro indicators.

And these macro indicators change over time. You must look at correlations and see which macro indicators move which market. Soybean traders currently watch fertiliser prices, propane, and natural gas. Five years ago, they watched Chinese rebar prices as a good proxy for Chinese growth expectations and soybean import demand.

Do physical traders still have an advantage?

Physical traders have a massive advantage if they work in trading houses where they can trade the various arbitrages available to them. They are beginning to understand how these new market participants operate and are learning to complement their views with non-fundamental inputs. It is absolutely a move in the right direction.

If they haven’t done so, every trader should build out a dashboard of non-fundamental trading inputs that matter for their market. Every market is different. Sugar has strong seasonality. Lean hogs are an excellent breakout market. Cocoa is mean-reverting. Bean oil trades all these macro flows. Work out which non-fundamental factors are essential in your commodity, and then follow them like a hawk!

Thank you, Dave, for your time and comments.

This is a short extract from Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade Them available on Amazon.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022