Commodity Conversations News Monitor

The UN FAO Food Price Index hit eleven-year highs in January, led by gains in vegetable oils and dairy prices, partially offset by a decline in sugar prices. Meat and cereal prices remained essentially unchanged. The NY Times worries that high food prices could lead to social unrest, while Bloomberg is concerned about the cost of meat, soybeans, coffee, and avocados.

China has removed restrictions on wheat and barley imports. The countries plan to reach a similar deal next year on peas. Leading wheat exporters to China, such as France, Canada, and Australia, may see their share of the China market fall. Russia has expanded in several other wheat markets in recent months, gaining a more significant stake in Saudi Arabia and Algeria.

Egypt may replace a bread subsidy with cash payments for the poor in the face of soaring wheat prices. Nearly two-thirds of the population get five loaves of bread per day for 50 cents a month, little changed since the 1970’s “bread riots”.

National Geographic reports on a new study on how climate change and agronomy improve US corn yields more than genetics. The New York Times invites us to meet the lobbyists who protect the farmers who are killing the planet while Fee reveals the ‘dark truth about America’s agricultural system.’

The CEO of plant-based protein company Impossible Foods made the headlines last week when he estimated in a report that eliminating animal agriculture over the next 15 years would essentially halt the increase of greenhouse gases for the next 30 years. Although the report was published in the peer-reviewed journal PLoS Climate, other scientists called it extreme, implausible, and unrealistic.

But is it plausible for plant-based meat to reach price-parity with real meat by 2023? The Good Food Institute (GFI) believes it can.

Even so, all-meat companies remain popular among short-sellers, with some analysts predicting further falls in their stock prices.

Britain’s pig industry says it faces collapse due to a shortage of butchers and a backlog in slaughtering more than 170,000 pigs. The sector also faces declining demand as more consumers move to plant-based diets.

Vox argues that billions of animals are slaughtered each year just to be wasted, citing statistics from the EPA report (published last November) entitled ‘From Farm to Kitchen- the Environmental Impacts of US Food Waste’.

Meatpacking company JBS has agreed to a $52.5 million settlement in a beef price-fixing lawsuit. Colorado-based JBS didn’t admit any wrongdoing as part of the settlement,

Environmental groups have petitioned the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to exclude dairy farmers from the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). They argue that paying farmers for methane encourages them to produce more.

Recently, there has been much in the press about feeding seaweed to cattle to reduce their methane emissions, but there has been little research on how seaweed farming might damage marine environments. Seaweed is also difficult and expensive to process and distribute.

In what could be one of the biggest explosions ever to occur in the US, a massive fire broke out at a North Carolina fertilizer plant containing roughly 600 tons of ammonium nitrate.

The Indian government is negotiating with Russia for the long-term supply of fertilizers. India aims to lock in 1 million tonnes a year each of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) and potash, and about 800,000 tonnes a year of a mix of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium (NPK).

Meanwhile, research continues into using microbes and seaweed as replacements for synthetic fertilizers.

In company news, Nestle will acquire a majority stake in Orgain, a maker of plant-based protein powders and other products. Financial details weren’t disclosed. Nestle has the option to fully acquire Orgain in 2024.

Tugboats have freed one of the world’s biggest container ships, the Mumbai Maersk, which had run aground off the German island of Wangerooge in the North Sea. The ship was on its way from Rotterdam to Bremerhaven.

Container shipping companies had their best quarter ever and expect to report extraordinary profits through 2022. Although port congestion is curtailing volumes, rates have risen so much that carrier profits keep escalating. As a result, shipping firms are paying their workers bonuses up to three years’ salary.

The world’s largest mozzarella maker also expects shipping disruptions to hinder agricultural exporters throughout 2022.

The USDA is helping to fund a new container yard for agricultural exports at California’s Port of Oakland to ease port congestion. The project is set to open in March.

However, a slowdown in China’s steel production is curbing demand for bulk ships to transport iron ore, driving a steady decline in bulk freight rates. The Baltic Exchange’s Dry Index has fallen 75 per cent in the past four months.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

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‘Going where no one else would go’ in the digital age

 

by Wouter Jacobs – Erasmus University

In their book, The World for Sale, published in 2021, Bloomberg reporters Jack Farchy and Javier Blas documented in rich detail the evolution of global commodity markets during the late twentieth century. They made explicit the modern-day commodity trading firm and the practices of their top-dog traders and executives. The crux of their analysis is that traders “go where no one else would go”. It is a trait that resonates with the characteristics of the merchant trader from an earlier era. Still, it remains a critical human-based skill in our current period dominated by Big Tech, Big Data, and Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based machine learning.

However, the ongoing financialisation of commodity markets, digitalisation, the quest for sustainability and inclusion, the emergence of decentralised and alternative forms of finance, the decommodification of supply chains and when or how to navigate the geopolitical and macro-economic restructuring of the world economy are all changes that require commodity trading firms (CTFs) to integrate new skills and mindsets.

CTFs need more analytics and more analysts to synthesise the increased amount of data points to inform decision making and trading strategies.

CTFs need to install compliance, due diligence, and Know Your Client (KYC) protocols to meet the demands of regulators, financiers, and the public. These protocols can be expensive, and they can constrain the intrinsic capability of a company’s traders to go where no one else would go.

CTFs need to take the time, effort, and leadership to incorporate sustainability into their company’s DNA. It requires specific skillsets to monitor and report on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with nitty-gritty detail, such as the amount of water used per plantation or the carbon exposures of a particular trade. It may require a public relations office protocol and narrative to deal with any criticisms. It may require strategies to maintain a local license to operate and a moral compass.

Finally, CTFs need to digitalise their operations to synthesise complex information. Adopting information technology has been critical for commodity trading, but CTFs are not leaders in the space. Some struggle to define and optimise their digitisation needs to adapt to the rapid emergence of decentralised platforms for exchange, finance, and post-trade execution.  

Given all these changes and the specific demands for skillsets, CTFs need to develop what Berkeley university professor and business guru David Teece has referred to as dynamic capabilities. Dynamic capabilities refer to the ability to sense, seize, and transform.

Sensing refers to scanning the business environment and identifying new opportunities that emerge from new technology. CTFs must seize any opportunities and translate them into their business model and adapt it accordingly. CTFs can encourage sensing through scenario planning and actively scouting for opportunities.

Seizing is more complicated. It requires clever re-combinations of existing competencies, such as rapidly prototyping new technologies into the workflows. An example of this was when some CTFs first ran in-house pilot projects on blockchain before joining a platform. Another (digital) seizing strategy is to consider lean start-up methodologies.  An example is Farmer Connect, founded by Sucafina’s head of trading, David Behrends.

Transforming is the most complex. It sometimes requires a wholescale redesign of its business model, asset portfolio, routines and competencies while insourcing entirely new or related skillsets. Internal shaping might involve – as Olam has recently done – an organisational separation of business lines. External shaping might include investing in universities’ education and training programmes or B2B platforms and digital ecosystems.

The Covantis platform, in which the ABCDs, Viterra and Cofco took the lead, is an example of the latter. Its scale and incumbent support can capture ‘network effects’ and dominate the market quickly, similar to other platforms (e.g., Netflix, Uber, Airbnb) in different markets and industries. While Covantis is now about trade execution, it may evolve into something more commercial. Be that as it may, it is not unthinkable that new platforms might even displace many of the intermediacy benefits of individual CTFs.

Finally, dynamic capabilities require managers to overcome company-internal barriers to novelty while designing governance structures and a business culture that enables adaption or business transformation. Often periods of crisis, low profitability or the risk of a hostile takeover can act as wake-up calls and remove internal barriers to change.

The archetypical successful trader goes where no one else would go. This risk appetite, combined with an intermediate position that captures value from information asymmetry within global supply chains, still defines a CTF’s business model.

But the amount of information upon which to act has increased exponentially. CTFs have increased their analytics teams accordingly. The larger companies have invested in technical analysis and quant-based trading modelling and strategies, predictive analytics, etc., while internally optimising their data systems. They have added new skill sets to the company, which do not involve ‘going where no one else would go’ in the traditional sense.

However, ‘going where no one else would go’ still matters in a world defined by digital apps and algorithmic machine learning.  It may matter even more in the future, although with a smaller physical presence than in the past. Understanding and appreciating local circumstances, cultural conventions, and languages is necessary for building trust and relationships.

‘Going where no one else would go can give you an informational edge that no algo (still) could grasp’.

This is a short extract from Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade Them available on Amazon.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

Commodity Conversations News Monitor

Viterra has announced it will acquire the Gavilon grains and ingredients (but not its fertiliser) business from Marubeni for $1.13 billion plus working capital. Marubeni bought Gavilon for $2.7 billion in 2013 expects to get as much as $3.51 billion from the sale. The FT wonders whether it will lead Viterra to IPO while Javier Blas gives his take on the acquisition here.

Agricultural commodity traders are worried about a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Agweb has a couple of articles on what conflict might mean for world markets. Bloomberg looks at how Russia’s past actions have impacted trade flows and how an invasion might restrict trade. It also looks at how India is diversifying sunflower oil imports away from Ukraine, their biggest supplier. Meanwhile, Ukrainian corn has been going as far afield as Indonesia.

Agricensus looks at what might happen to Russia’s grain exports if the world cuts the country off from the SWIFT payment system. Any disruptions to Russian exports could prove a boon for French wheat exporters who have been losing export share to Russia.

There are no signs that India’s vegoil appetite will fall anytime soon. Domestic consumption should climb by as much as 17 per cent over the next four years.

Conflict could lead to higher food prices. A researcher at Mintec tells Bloomberg she sees agricultural commodity prices beginning to peak and likely retreating into the second half of 2022. Still, it could take until at least 2023 before consumers feel the benefit. Reuters also thinks we may have to wait for 2023 for prices to ease.

Insurance payments to US farmers due to drought rose more than 400 per cent between 1995 and 2020 to $1.65 billion, while payments due to excess moisture rose nearly 300 per cent to $2.61 billion. The federal government pays about 60 per cent of the nation’s crop insurance premiums through taxpayer subsidies.

Brazil’s Parana State estimates its 2021/22 soybean crop at 12.83 million tonnes, down 35 per cent from 2020/21 and below a previous projection of 18.4 million tonnes, due to low rainfall and high temperatures provoked by La Nina. The weather phenomenon has also led South Africa’s farmers to plant less acreage after record rainfall curtailed sowings.

Farmers in Brazil, Argentina and the US are holding back crop sales in expectation of higher prices. The three countries account for more than three-quarters of global corn and soybean exports.

But it is not just food prices that are soaring. Cotton has hit new ten-year highs for the fourth time in five months.

CNN worries that rising food prices are hurting those that can least afford them and calls for the US Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflation expectations.

Higher interest rates won’t solve the labour shortage in Malaysia’s palm oil sector, where output has fallen to a five-year low. Foreign workers make up around 85 per cent of the labour force on plantations.

Thailand’s government is concerned about the impact that higher palm oil prices will have on the country’s consumers while recognising the benefits accruing to farmers. Higher palm oil prices may spur the search for alternatives.

China Dialogue has a well-presented feature on palm oil sustainability, focusing on Wilmar and the RSPO. Reuters has a long-read on sustainable palm oil in Malaysia’s eastern state of Sabah. Swiss researchers have published the results of the OPAL Project, a six-year study into sustainable palm oil. The study focused on three oil palm growing countries: Cameroon, Colombia, and Indonesia.

Fox News worries that high US fertiliser prices will reduce production this season. They write that a fertiliser bag that cost $11 in 2021 now sells for about $20. However, US wholesale fertiliser prices have fallen to levels last seen last October. Things could change quickly if the world imposes sanctions on Russia, a significant nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash exporter.

India will allocate about 3 trillion rupees ($40 billion) on food and fertiliser subsidies in its budget for 2022/23, roughly the same amount as in the fiscal year 2021/22 ending March.

Kula Bio, a Boston-based start-up, has raised $50 million to accelerate production for their next-generation nitrogen fertiliser that uses bacteria to remove nitrogen from the air and deposit it in soil.

In little-reported news, Sri Lanka’s government will give about $200 million in compensation to the country’s rice farmers whose crops failed under a botched scheme to establish the world’s first 100-per cent organic farming nation. The government last year banned imports of agricultural chemicals leading to about a third of Sri Lanka’s agricultural land being left dormant. The government reversed the ban last October.

Canada’s cattle ranchers continue to struggle to feed their herds due to the country’s recent drought-reduced grain crop, Covid-related restrictions on US truck shipments and capacity restraints on rail movements.

There was another flurry of anti-meat articles last week, with this one summarising the environmental arguments for going vegan.

A new report in the Journal of Ecological Society argues that animal agriculture is responsible for at least 87 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions. It says that earlier studies have underestimated the environmental impact of livestock farming and have failed to include the negative impact of forests lost to animal agriculture.

Greenpeace Brazil reports that up to 80 per cent of deforestation in the Amazon rainforest is due to cattle ranching. Storebrand, a $120bn Nordic asset manager, has placed ADM and Bunge on its “observation list” for moving too slowly to eliminate deforestation risk from their supply chains.

Human Rights Watch has written an open letter asking the EU Commission to include land rights in their upcoming regulations restricting imports of any commodities that have contributed to deforestation.

The Economist posted a video on LinkedIn about alternative meat, but the FT wonders whether the demand for alt-meat has peaked. After a 46 per cent rise in 2020, US sales of plant-based meat fell 0.5 per cent in 2021.

The Chinese government has released its official Five-Year Agricultural Plan (in mandarin). It mentions cultivated meat for the first time and suggests that producing it is in the national interest.

The EU has implemented a ban on giving antibiotics to healthy animals. The Guardian is upset that the UK has not done the same.

A new study finds that climate change will make it harder for farmers to grow coffee, cashew, and avocado. CNN is particularly concerned about what that might mean for coffee lovers. You can find the BBC’s take on the report here.

China has published draft rules for gene-edited plants. It could now take only a year or two to get approval for a gene-edited plant compared with around six years for GM ones. Last November, Beijing passed new regulations for genetically modified (GM)crops.

Nestlé has announced a major – perhaps game-changing – initiative in cocoa sourcing. The company will triple its cocoa sustainability funding to $1.4 billion over eight years, including direct pay-outs to African cocoa farmers to remove child labour from its supply chain.

ADM reported a record fourth-quarter profit and said it would continue to benefit from solid demand for crops and biofuel in 2022. ADM’s net earnings rose to $782 million in the quarter ended Dec. 31, up from $687 million a year earlier. (You can access the earnings call deck here.)

Walmart is investing in the vertical farming start-up Plenty and will start carrying its leafy greens in all California stores this year. The investment is part of a $400 million funding round.

In shipping news, MSC, the world’s largest container-shipping company, is looking to buy ITA Airways, the successor to the defunct Alitalia. The transaction would have a value of between 1.2 and 1.5 billion euros. Lufthansa would act as an industrial partner.

Maersk has announced plans to launch an offshore vessel-charging company to support the maritime industry’s decarbonisation efforts by eliminating idle emissions. A project for decarbonised shipping is gearing up to introduce the world’s first ammonia-powered ship.

Lastly, if you are reading this before taking an afternoon nap, have a coffee first.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

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A Conversation with Michiel Hendriksz

Good morning, Michiel. Could you please tell me how you got involved in the cocoa business?

After leaving Cranfield, I worked for a Dutch company exporting agricultural products, mainly frozen vegetables, to Spain and Portugal. I stayed in food marketing and distribution, working in the UK, Spain, and France before accepting a position with ADM, marketing their cocoa products into Southern Europe. I already knew all the buyers and understood food systems, so it was a great fit. Technically speaking, cocoa powder, cocoa butter and liquor are all food ingredients with specific attributes.

In 2007, I migrated from sales to trading and became director of trading and manager West Africa.  Trading cocoa was increasingly about what we now call sustainability, and I worked closely with the Sustainability Director until he left in 2011. I took over his role, shedding my previous trading responsibilities, but remained in contact with clients on sustainability issues. I represented ADM Cocoa in many initiatives, steering committees and working groups.

Why did you found FarmStrong?

ADM decided to get out of cocoa; it didn’t fit well with their other commodity trading businesses at that time. It took time to find buyers. Cargill eventually bought the chocolate assets, while Olam bought the cocoa processing, grinding, and pressing.

In 2015, I left ADM and started FarmStrong to have the independence to advise trading companies looking to make their supply chains more sustainable. The French commodity trading company Sucden was an early customer and supporter.

What does FarmStrong do?

We design sustainability programmes for most of the significant international chocolate manufacturers and some smaller family businesses. We also currently run two programmes partly financed by the Swiss government. We do some work with UN agencies, developing and scaling up their environmental interventions. We also receive UN support to scale our programmes. We are a non-for-profit recognised by the Swiss federal government for its work in the public interest.

Our programmes include training in good agricultural practices, but agriculture is not necessarily the most significant problem farmers face. The cocoa tree is not the problem. The most important issues that farmers, families, communities face are health, nutrition, education, security, and poor infrastructure.

Why have the chocolate companies failed to eradicate child labour from their supply chains?

The NGOs put pressure on the chocolate companies to eradicate child labour, but independent research has shown that it hasn’t worked even in their narrow supply chains. Chocolate companies can do more, but they can’t solve the problem on their own.

The fact that child labour exists in West Africa has nothing to do with cocoa. Child labour is still widespread regardless of the crop that the farmers are growing. It is a correlation, not causation.

One of the biggest problems is that many children in the Ivory Coast do not officially exist. They don’t have birth certificates or registration documents. Their (grand) parents immigrated and never went through any registration process. A child cannot go to school in Ivory Coast without a birth certificate, and they can’t get a birth certificate if their parents don’t have an ID. It is difficult to get an ID if you don’t have a birth certificate or are not registered.

Sometimes local schools allow unregistered children to attend classes, but as soon as they are twelve years old, they must take an exam to move on to secondary school. They can’t take the exam unless they show they have a birth certificate or are officially registered. So, their schooling ends at 12 years old, and they work on their parents’ farms. Sitting at home is not an option.

The sector is facing enormous challenges. What is to be done?

Chocolate companies, trade houses, governments and the public are putting massive amounts of money into cocoa, channelling it at a high cost into aid agency programmes. These programmes are well-intentioned but largely ineffective. Independent research shows that they had little impact for the last 20 years.

If you want to improve cocoa farmers’ livelihoods, don’t help them grow more cocoa.  Encourage them instead to grow more food crops that they can either eat or sell locally. And acknowledge their issues around health, nutrition, education, registration of births and land.

Thank you, Michiel, for your time and input. 

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

This is a short extract from my next book Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade Them – available now on Amazon.

Commodity Conversations News Monitor

CNN asks whether governments should fix prices to control food inflation – a policy last used in the 1970s – but concludes that it will only result in shortages.

The New York Post writes that citrus greening disease has decimated Florida’s orange crop, resulting in the lowest production in 75 years. Orange juice prices are up 50 per cent on the 10-year lows seen in February 2020.

Palm oil prices have hit a record high on concerns over supplies. Malaysian producers face an acute labour shortage, while Indonesia may impose limits on palm oil exports to encourage producers to prioritise the domestic market. Indian consumers are likely to switch to cheaper soy and sunflower oils.

After the Canadian and US governments introduced vaccination requirements for truckers crossing their borders, Canadians are paying more for their fruit and vegetable. The cost of transporting fruit from California and Arizona to Canada climbed 25 per cent last week. Only 50 to 60 per cent of US truckers are vaccinated. The US restrictions also apply to border traffic with Mexico.

The new rules are also negatively impacting the cross-border shipments of Canadian pigs to US abattoirs. Exporters have cancelled truck shipments of US soybean meal to Manitoba when producers are relying on the imports to feed their animals after drought hit domestic production.  Capacity constraints make it challenging to transfer to rail shipments, and some Canadian feedlot operators expect to run out of animal feed “within days.

Bloomberg writes that the $150 billion that the shipping industry made last year from higher freight rates contributed to food inflation.

It is not just the shipping companies seeing higher profits after years of depressed markets. Margarita Louis-Dreyfus, whose holding company, Akira BV, is the main shareholder in Louis Dreyfus Company, received $457 million in dividends in 2021, increasing her net worth to $3.3 billion.

China imported 28.35 million tonnes of corn in 2021, up 152 per cent from the previous annual record of 11.3 million in 2020. Chinese wheat imports also hit a record at 9.77 million tonnes, up 16.6 per cent from 2020. Wheat imports have mainly increased for animal feed, but the country’s growing demand for bread may continue the upward trend.

California Air Resources Board (CARB) has found that recent truck engines emit more NOx when running on renewable diesel than conventional diesel. Earlier studies on older engines had found that renewable diesel reduced NOx emissions by 10 per cent. The new research could affect how regulators revise the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which has spurred recent investment in renewable diesel.

Due to policy and feedstock constraints, the US will likely produce less than half the renewable diesel production projected by the US government for 2025. The EIA estimates US renewable diesel production capacity could increase to more than 5 billion gallons per year, but a new study estimates production will reach approximately 2 billion gallons.

There were various anti-meat stories this week. Euronews featured a Bafta-winning short film about a UK farmer who donated his beef cattle herd to an animal sanctuary. Bloomberg Green has a long read on how cattle farming destroys the Amazon rainforest.

The Guardian writes about the US’s manure problem and worries that the growing use of anaerobic digesters to produce biomethane will encourage farmers to increase herds. And in a separate article, the newspaper writes about the European culture wars over meat-eating. The EU expects per capita meat consumption to drop only slightly, from 69.8 kg in 2018 to 67 kg by 2031, too little to impact global warming.

Wired magazine questions whether there is such a thing as ‘low carbon beef’. Under a USDA scheme, producers who can prove they raise their cattle in a way that emits 10 per cent fewer greenhouse gases than an industry baseline can qualify for the certification.

The food technology start-up, Mosa Meat, has developed a way to grow meat in a laboratory without using fetal bovine serum (FBS, blood taken from foetuses in pregnant cows during the slaughter process. Musa believes that it can reduce production costs by 80 per cent and has published details in Nature.

For a second straight year, the French government has ordered poultry farmers in the country’s Southwest to cull their birds in the face of bird flu. A severe outbreak between autumn 2020 and spring 2021 claimed about 3.5 million poultry, mainly ducks.

The EU is celebrating the 60th anniversary of the founding of its Common Agricultural Policy. You will find its history and associated articles here.

NASA is offering $1 million in prize money for innovations around sustainable food production. NASA wants to develop food systems that can feed a team of four astronauts on a long-haul space mission of up to three years. They also hope it will result in food innovation to help feed more people on earth.

And talking of feeding the planet, the plant enset, an Ethiopian staple, could be a new superfood and a lifesaver in the face of climate change. The banana-like crop could feed more than 100 million people in a warming world.

The fourfold increase in fertiliser prices over the past year will hit European farmers badly. For example, fertiliser use in Hungary could drop 30-40 per cent this season, making crops more susceptible to drought. The world’s biggest vertical farm, under construction in Pennsylvania, hopes to get around high fertiliser prices by using fish poop.

Looking forward, the world’s farmers will have to switch to ‘green’ fertilisers produced from renewable fuel if they want to decarbonise food production. It will be challenging, but this article is optimistic that it will happen.

The UK government has allowed the country’s sugar beet farmers to use the chemical pesticide thiamethoxam to deal with yellow virus disease. The EU and UK banned its use in 2018 because of the damage the chemical could cause to bees. meanwhile, New Atlas looks at the remarkable properties of sugar-based plastics.

Italy has applied for UNESCO world heritage status for espresso coffee, claiming it is “much more than a simple drink”. Finally, to let your mind wander to sunny climes, the BBC has a lovely piece on Trieste, the coffee capital of Italy.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

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A conversation with Paul Hickman

Good morning, Paul. First, tell me how you ended up trading palm oil in Singapore.

I worked for Cargill until 2013, when I joined Golden Agri-Resources (GAR), where I am now head of global vegetable oil and oilseeds.

 Palm oil differs from other commodities because the top traders are producers. Why is that?

Several things differentiate palm from many of the competing food crops. First, you must wait four years before the trees reach an age where they bear fruit. It’s a substantial upfront cash investment with no returns for those early years.

Second, no government subsidies exist, unlike the significant taxpayer-funded contributions paid to European and American farmers.

Third, once the trees mature, harvesting occurs every two to three weeks.

Given the size of the upstream investment and the need to ensure a home for the product year-round, many producers felt the need to control their destiny by vertically integrating into processing, trading, and distribution.

How important are physical assets in trading palm oil?

You don’t need physical assets to trade palm oil. Plenty of liquidity exists in the Dalian futures market in China and the BMD in Malaysia. However, assets are necessary if you want to be involved in the physical movement of palm oil. End users are increasingly demanding. They rightly insist that their suppliers control their supply chain at every step of the process. It is not just about sustainability but also about food quality.

 People talk about palm oil plantations, but what percentage of world supply is produced by smallholders versus large companies?

At least three million smallholders worldwide make a living (or part of a living) from oil palm; they produce more than 41 per cent of the world’s palm oil. Even though smallholders are a vital part of the palm supply chain, they are frequently ignored in the palm story. The focus is inevitably on the more prominent actors like us. Our business relies on smallholders producing more and better-quality palm oil in line with sustainability requirements. It’s in our interests to help them get there.

The average income for palm oil farmers in Indonesia is $2,500 per hectare per year, compared to only $250 per hectare for rice. Palm oil contributes up to 60 per cent of income in rural areas in Indonesia. The palm oil sector has lifted millions of Indonesians out of poverty and has had a substantial impact on the welfare of rural communities by providing schools and clinics. Palm oil companies also provide and maintain critical infrastructure like roads, increasing connectivity and ease of access to previously remote rural areas

How do you react when people blame palm oil for deforestation?

Given the persistent negative stories and images linked to palm oil production, it’s easy to get defensive. Many of those images are highly emotive – orangutans fighting bulldozers come to mind. In most cases, these are images from the past. They do not reflect the amount of work the sector has done and continues to do to address deforestation.

Facts are on our side, but truth generally loses in a battle of reality versus emotive imagery.

But I’ll give you the facts. The most important one is that cattle farming causes the most deforestation worldwide. The World Resources Institute (WRI) has analysed satellite data and found that, from 2000 to 2015, cattle farming resulted in 45.1 million hectares of deforestation. During the same period, palm oil was far behind, responsible for 10.5 million hectares of deforestation.

For comparison, soy cultivation led to 8.5 million hectares of deforestation over that period. When you consider that virtually all soy goes to animal feed, meat production is responsible for 53.6 million hectares of deforestation during the period—more than five times more than palm production.

Compared to the meat industry, the palm oil sector has taken significant steps to combat deforestation. A combination of corporate and government policies has led to decreased deforestation in the palm oil supply chain, especially in the last five years.

What challenges does palm oil face in the future?

I would say there are three main challenges:

First, trade barriers effectively ban palm oil in specific markets – in Europe, the US, and elsewhere, where sustainability is used as a barrier to market access rather than an incentive for change. The palm sector faces regulatory barriers and shifting rules of engagement even though it has demonstrably done more than any other deforestation-linked commodity to address the issue. The EU’s REDII rules that take palm oil out of biofuels and ongoing due diligence regulation developments in critical markets could have a chilling effect on the progress made. It’s the opposite of what the industry needs.

The second challenge is a lack of manpower. Recruiting palm oil workers will get more complicated as younger people do not want to work on the land. Palm oil remains an incredibly labour-intensive industry. The manual nature of harvesting is hard work and less attractive to young people.

Third, climate change and extreme weather will increasingly impact palm oil production. Any agribusiness needs to factor in reducing its carbon emissions and developing carbon adaptation strategies.

Thank you, Paul, for your time and comments

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

This is a brief excerpt from my new book, Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade Them available now on Amazon

Commodity Conversations News Monitor

Revenues at Goldman Sachs’ commodity unit have exceeded $2.2 billion in the final months of 2021, exceeding those for 2020, after the team placed big bets on rising prices. The bank remains hugely bullish on energy prices, betting that we are in a commodity super-cycle that could last a decade.

With world food prices back to where they were in 2011, Bloomberg worries that some countries may see food riots and social unrest. However, after nearly doubling in 2021, fertilizer prices are beginning to fall, raising hopes that food inflation might also ease.

Soy farmers in South Brazil are battling a severe drought that could wipe out their harvest in some areas. Good rains in the top-producing state of Mato Grosso could partially offset losses in the south. Still, some forecasters have cut their estimates for Brazil’s total soy output this year by some 10 to 11 million tonnes to about 133-134 million tonnes.

A USDA report on drought preparedness finds that approximately 80 per cent of US irrigation organizations don’t have a formal plan for responding to future water scarcity. As recently as November, 28 per cent of the US was affected by severe to extreme drought. The drought is mainly located west of the Mississippi River, with arid conditions in far Western states. By contrast, Maine has produced a record potato crop.

Ships looking to avoid delays at China’s Ningbo port are heading to Shanghai, causing growing congestion. Ships are also re-routing to Xiamen in the south.

Maersk has upgraded its full-year guidance and expects to report up to $1.8 billion in Q4 earnings for a revised full-year EBIT of $19.8 billion. It comes on the back of an 80 per cent hike in its average freight rate, compared with Q4 2020, and despite a 4 per cent decline in liftings. Maersk’s 2021 earnings will easily exceed the previous five years combined.

In the last quarter, operating margins for container shipping companies ranged from 67 per cent for Evergreen to 52.7 per cent for Costco and 40.8 per cent for Maersk. The industry will report about $190 billion of combined operating profit for 2021, more than the operating earnings at Apple and Microsoft Corp. combined.

Maersk has exercised options for four additional new build containerships powered by carbon-neutral methanol. Maersk placed its original order for eight 16,000 TEU methanol-fuelled ships in August 2021, with delivery planned in the first quarter of 2024. They will have a dual fuel engine setup to enable green methanol or conventional low sulphur fuel operation.

Maersk has meanwhile announced that it is bringing forward the date by which it hopes to be carbon-neutral from 2050 to 2040.

The NGO Global Canopy reports that a third of the 350 companies most exposed to commodities such as palm oil, beef and timber has no policies to ensure their products are not fuelling deforestation. The UK has already made it a legal responsibility for companies to ensure no illegal deforestation in their supply chains, and the EU and US are looking at similar legislation.

The Guardian writes that a Brazilian farm that has in the past sold corn and soy to Cargill will be blacklisted this year under the Soy Moratorium, a voluntary industry agreement that bars the trade in soya beans on Amazon land deforested after 2008.

Brazil will stop monitoring deforestation in the Cerrado due to budget cuts. Deforestation in the Cerrado rose 8 per cent to 8,531 square kilometres for the 12-months through July.

The USDA aims to double the US’s cover crop plantings to 30 million acres by 2030, spending $38 million to help farmers in 11 states plant cover crops to bolster soil health, limit soil erosion and capture and store carbon.

Bloomberg writes of the future of lab-grown meat and asks when FDA approval will be forthcoming. The sector is optimistic about its prospects, particularly after the USDA awarded a $10 million grant to Tuft’s University over five years to establish the National Institute for Cellular Agriculture.

A UK government-commissioned survey found that 42 per cent of respondents said that nothing could persuade them to try lab-grown meat, but 27 per cent might try it if they knew it was safe to eat and 23 per cent if they could trust that it was properly regulated. The majority (67 per cent) reported that nothing could make them try edible insects, although 13 per cent could if they knew they were safe to eat and 11 per cent if they looked appetizing.

After meat and coffee, researchers are turning their attention to lab-produced palm oil. Bill Gates’ investment fund, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, has invested $20 million in C16 Biosciences to develop a microbial palm oil alternative. As with all lab-based options, the problem is to scale production economically.

Scale might not be a problem securing protein for animal feed from Scotland’s gorse and broom bushes, invasive species that landowners clear each year. Gorse contains 17 per cent protein, and broom has 21 per cent protein.

Environmental groups are against the US administration’s proposed Build Back Better Bill that encourages livestock and dairy farmers to trap methane gas and sell it for electricity or vehicle fuel. They say that if capturing and selling methane from cows becomes profitable, it could incentivize large farms to grow, increasing greenhouse gas emissions. One policy analyst said, “If you start making money off of pollution, you’re not going to stop polluting.”

A new study published in Nature argues that the world’s more than $200 billion of agricultural subsidies are neither healthy nor sustainable. It finds that about two-thirds of all subsidies are non-specific, allowing farmers to use them as they wish. The report argues that the support should be redirected in ways that are good for the environment and consumer health, specifically away from meat and dairy.

The US administration is considering reducing the 2022 ethanol blending mandate below the proposed 15 billion gallons. Last December, the US EPA proposed reducing ethanol requirements for 2020 and 2021 but restoring them to 15 billion gallons for 2022.

The US Supreme Court has refused a bid to revive a 2019 EPA waiver that allowed year-round sales of E15, effectively lifting summertime restrictions. The Supreme Court agreed with an earlier lower court ruling that the agency had exceeded its authority in granting the waiver.

ExxonMobil has bought a 49.9 per cent stake in Biojet. This Norwegian biofuel company plans to convert forestry and wood-based construction waste into biofuels and biofuel components that meet the requirements for advanced fuels under Norwegian, EU and UK regulations. Biojet intends to begin commercial production in 2025.

ADM has signed a letter of intent with Wolf Carbon Solutions to build a 350-mile steel pipeline to capture and transport carbon dioxide produced at ADM’s ethanol facilities at Clinton and Cedar Rapids, Iowa, to a sequestration site in Decatur, Illinois.

In trade news, India has agreed to allow US pork and pork imports, removing a longstanding trade barrier. However, China will maintain tariffs on US distillers grains (DDGS) imports but will conduct a review that may see the tariffs lifted in January 2023.

Finally, Sprudge agrees with the New York Times that robusta will take market share from arabica as climate change makes the latter harder to grow.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

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A Conversation with Colin Iles

 

Good morning, Colin.  You are responsible for both cotton and sugar at Viterra. Are the two commodities similar?

Commodity traders tend to focus on the differences between their different commodities, but, ultimately, once you block out the technical language and focus on the concepts, they’re all the same.

Cotton and sugar are similar in how the trade houses get involved in the futures expiry process.  As a percentage of open interest, I suspect that the positions taken into the expiry – or in the case of cotton, into the notice period – are larger in sugar and cotton than in other agricultural commodities.

Sugar and cotton trading distils down to ‘What is your view on the spreads?’ Your view on the spreads will impact your opinion on the physical premiums. The two are interrelated.

What is the secret to making money in cotton trading?

If there is a secret, it is assessing value.

You can assess value in various ways. In terms of time spreads, the value of cotton may be too low relative to the future, and you can arbitrage that difference.  In terms of geographies, you can find dislocations in value across different regions. Essentially all we do is look at the value of something relative to everything else.  We try to pick out the outliers that are either over or undervalued and make it work. Trading is about assessing value. You must reduce every discussion down to what value am I measuring this against?

Do you trade spreads and differentials more than the flat price?

I like to trade the time spreads in cotton because time is our only consistent value benchmark.

I don’t like trading cotton flat price. When you trade sugar flat price, you get price points where things happen and the balance sheet changes. The best example is the optionality that the Brazilian mills have in whether to produce ethanol or sugar. You can look at the price of sugar compared to ethanol and make a robust case for the flat price to move higher or lower. You have a value anchor where a move in price changes the balance sheet.

We don’t have that in cotton.  Fundamentally, it doesn’t matter if cotton moves from 65 to 90 cents a pound. It doesn’t bring significantly more cotton into production. Nor does it change demand from the spinning mills in Vietnam or the price of jeans on a shelf in Walmart in Texas. Consequently, trading flat price in cotton is often an exercise in second-guessing sentiment.

What advice would you give to a young person beginning in the cotton trade?

Get involved in the physical commodity and understand the full implications of any trade. Once you make a sale, someone must create a shipping order, book containers, send people into the cotton fields to draw samples and test them. Someone must go to the bank to open a letter of credit. You must understand how all those things interact.

You don’t have to be an expert in everything, but you must talk knowledgeably about every aspect of trading. You must understand the implications of tweaking one part of a trade; what does it mean further down the chain?

You must also be comfortable with large amounts of data. The future of trading is in understanding and analysing data.  On the production side, it may be in interpreting satellite crop data. On the demand side, it may involve getting live feeds on point-of-sale volumes in retail outlets.  Data mining and analysis are becoming a crucial part of our market analysis. It is a huge opportunity.

Thank you, Colin, for your time and input!

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

This is a short extract from my book Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade Them available now on Amazon

Commodity Conversations News Monitor

The FAO’s food price index declined 0.9 per cent in December but increased 28 per cent in 2021, averaging 125.7 points, its highest level since 2011.

Bloomberg argues that Chinese food stockpiles are contributing to rising world food prices and questions why less than 20 per cent of the world’s population holds 69 per cent of the world’s corn reserves, 60 per cent of its rice reserves and 51 per cent of its wheat reserves.

Low food prices may be bad for consumers, but they are good for farmers. Indeed, Germany’s Agriculture Minister argues that food prices should rise further, arguing that “junk prices” drive “farms into ruin, prevent more animal welfare, promote the extinction of species and pollute the climate.”

Covid continues to disrupt supply chains, with supermarkets in the US and Australia running short of groceries. The FT asks (in a long read) if there is an end in sight to these supply chain disruptions. The newspaper concludes that there probably isn’t and that it might be time to start moving production closer to consumption.

Bloomberg argues that freak weather and climate change will continue to disrupt our food supply long after Covid’s effects wear off. Unfortunately, the FT agrees. For example, unseasonably low rainfall across southern Africa threatens harvests and could lead to higher regional food prices later in the year.

Even food-producing countries are not immune. After palm oil surged to a record in October 2021 and posted a third straight year of gains, Indonesia’s government has said it will spend 3.6 trillion rupiahs ($250 million) to subsidise domestic cooking oil prices.

California’s Port of Oakland has said it will open a new container yard for agricultural exporters struggling with capacity shortages and high freight costs. Following delays due to flooding in Vancouver Port, farmers are resorting to desperate measures to export their produce, chartering three 747 aeroplanes to fly potatoes to Japan.

In environmental news, deforestation and other clearances of native vegetation in Brazil’s Cerrado rose 8 per cent to 8,531 sq km in the 12 months through July, the highest level since 2015. And in India, the BBC traces Delhi’s smog back to farmers’ poor water management.

A switch from arabica to robusta coffee could be one of the top consumer trends for the next few years as climate change makes arabica more challenging to grow. Changes in the way farmers grow, and process robusta could make it more palatable. Some predict that world robusta production could soon exceed that of arabica. (Meanwhile, for you coffee lovers out there, Seeking Alpha has an interesting piece on the speciality coffee sector and how the major brands are profiting from rising demand in Asia. )

On the good news front, scientists are genetically engineering soil microbes to reduce methane emissions from rice paddy fields.

Indonesia’s President has revoked more than 2,000 mining, plantation and forest-use permits due to non-compliance or because they had been unused. He said he was acting to improve governance and transparency in the natural resources sector.

The UK government will pay farmers in England to rewild their lands and has invited bids for 10-15 pilot projects, each covering at least 500 hectares and up to 5,000 hectares, to a total of approximately 10,000 hectares in the first two-year phase. Funding for the project could reach £700 – £800 million a year by 2028.

The Guardian is worried that these measures, plus others, will lead to a decline in UK farm production and increased food imports. A UK Parliamentary Committee has come to the same conclusion, arguing that the UK government has not established any way to measure whether £2.4 billion of annual post-Brexit farm payments will provide value for money.

Across the pond, the USDA will provide $1 billion in funding this year to support independent meat processors and ranchers as part of a plan to address a lack of “meaningful competition” in the meat sector.

In company news, Cargill has paid €915 million to acquire the majority of Croda’s industrial chemicals business. The acquired business sells nature-derived alternatives to chemicals now commonly made with petroleum used in products ranging from plastic mouldings for cars to food and beverage packaging.

The container shipping giant Maersk has acquired Hong Kong-based LF Logistics for $3.6 billion. The acquisition will add 223 warehouses to Maersk’s existing portfolio, bringing their total facilities to 549 globally. However, Maersk’s stated intention to transform itself into a logistics provider is causing conflict within the company.

The Chicago Board of Trade has sold what was formerly its largest trading floor at 333 S. La Salle St. to an electricity company that will transform it into a sub-station. CME closed most of its trading floors in 2015.

Finally, here is some new research on the top US states in renewable energy production.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

Many of the above links require subscriptions. Please support quality journalism.

A Conversation with Todd Thul

Good morning, Todd. What’s your current position within Cargill?

I have a dual role. I have led Cargill’s global corn and ethanol trading activity for the last seven years, managing the worldwide teams. About one year ago, I also became managing director of our global grain business. That role goes beyond trading into the more commercial side of the company.

What is it that you like about the commodity trading business?

People usually explain commodity trading as a primary business that moves goods from surplus to deficit areas across time (carry) and place (dislocation) and form (processing). It may not sound like the most exciting thing, but it’s fascinating once you get into it.

There are many different aspects to trading and ways to approach it. I particularly enjoy the interaction with people, both customers and suppliers, that you get when you handle physical products, moving them along the supply chain. This personal interaction is an essential part of the business for me.

I also enjoy being involved in the shipping side, as well as leading teams, getting the best out of everyone, and mentoring teammates in their careers.

What gives you an edge both personally and as a company?

Collection, interpretation, and analysis of data are essential, but so too is teamwork.

What gives a team an edge?  Being competitive and hungry to win. What does that mean? It means that you’re gritty and creative, and you are constantly challenging and evaluating the situation around you, looking for opportunities.

Look at the analogy of a sports team, say a football team. A team plays together, works together, constantly looks for opportunities to score. At Cargill, teamwork is a vital part of our culture.

As a trader, you work in your own space, trying to leverage everything you can within that space, but your role is to contribute to the team’s success.  Teamwork is as essential in trading as it is in sports.

Whenever I talk to recruits, I emphasise the overlap between sports and trading.

What advice would you give to a young trader?

Don’t limit yourself to one product or one commodity. I would advise young traders to get to know and understand as many products and aspects of the business as they can. Gain experience across the space, across geographies and across products. Go as deep and as wide as you can and learn about as many commodities as you can.

During my career, I have traded both barge and ocean freight. This experience has been invaluable to me on the bean, corn, and veg-oil desks. You can’t trade commodities without understanding freight and logistics.

Likewise, my time on the vegoil desk has been invaluable when talking about or trading biofuels.

The approach to trading and the skill sets you need are similar across different products. There’s always a technical learning curve specific to each commodity, but your cross-commodity exposure will give you an edge as a trader.

Our ability to give traders experience over a range of commodities is one of Cargill’s strengths as a company.

What would be a likely career path for a young person joining Cargill today?

If you were to join Cargill, we would start with the business basics to understand what everyone else on the desk is discussing! We would also teach you the concepts and mechanics of supply and demand, logistics, freight, and risk management.

Most people will have some experience at a domestic regional location – in EMEA or the Americas – where you can learn and understand the basics of origination, where the supply chain starts.

That won’t be the path for everyone, but that’s how I started. Honestly, I think that if you want to learn something, you must go to the core, and origination is one of Cargill’s core businesses.

From then, your career will follow a natural pathway of growth and evolution of responsibility. You will go from talking local to regional markets, then on to a specific export market, entire geography and then global. It is not Cargill-specific; it is the general path a recruit would experience in big ag companies.

During your career, you will build your risk management skills and develop your risk tolerance and style. People sometimes believe they know their tolerance and style, but you only understand that through experience.

 What qualities are you looking for in a candidate?

I look first for a competitive team player.  You need to have a strong drive for results and equally want your teammates to win.  I’m also looking for someone with a creative side. I’m less interested in the specifics of past experience and more interested in their approach to things.  Do you seek challenges and like to find a solution for a puzzle?  I’m generally looking for that competitive edge combined with a creative side.

I am also looking for balance. Someone with an appetite and understanding for risk, balanced with the ability to manage that risk. I’m always looking for someone cool under pressure. The moment when everybody else is panicking is usually when an opportunity presents itself. That’s a complex characteristic to identify when you’re interviewing somebody, but it is something that I’m always looking for.

And the last thing is leadership. I believe that no matter what your role is, leadership is a high-value characteristic. How you manage yourself, how you interact with people, how you handle adversity. These are all relevant attributes for somebody running a commercial business, such as a trading desk.

Is there anything you would like to add?

Only to say that this business is awesome.

There are so many moving parts. What’s the future of EVs, the energy transition and renewable fuels, of China? I don’t know, but it excites the crap out of me that I don’t know. It’s my nature. It’s the nature of people we’re looking for, people who want the challenge to go figure it out.

Our industry is ever-changing, fast, and fascinating. Go for it!

Thank you, Todd, for your time and input!

© Commodity Conversations ® 2021

This is an extract from Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade Them – available now on Amazon.