Ag-Trader News

The UN FAO world price index fell in March for the 12th consecutive month and is now down 20.5 per cent from a record high one year ago. It is the lowest since July 2021.

However, UK grocery inflation has hit a new record high of 17.5 per cent. Sky News blames rising sugar prices, while the FT blames fruit and vegetables.

 The War in Ukraine

Poland and Ukraine have agreed to temporarily stop all Ukrainian grain imports into Poland, although the restrictions do not extend to the transit of grain. Polish Agriculture Minister had resigned earlier in the week over the issue.

Thousands of farmers protested across Romania over the impact of Ukrainian grain imports, blocking traffic and border checkpoints with tractors and trucks.

Ukraine’s first deputy farm minister said his country might export a further 15.6 million mt of grain in the April to June quarter, which would lift this season’s exports to nearly 53 million mt.

However, Russia’s Foreign Minister has warned that Russia may pull out of the Ukrainian grain export deal if the West fails to remove obstacles to Russian agricultural exports. He said a lack of access to insurance and the SWIFT financial messaging system curtails exports.

Cargill, Viterra, and LDC will exit the Russian domestic grain export markets and stop elevating activities (buying grain from farmers, moving it to the ports and loading it onto vessels.) They will still trade Russian grain, but only on a FOB of C&F basis. (Click here for LDC’s press release.)

ADM is reevaluating its activities in Russia, particularly its joint-venture corn sweetener operations with partner Aston. Bloomberg’s Javier Blas has an excellent take on the news.

CME asks whether the war has broken the link between energy and ag prices.

Other market news

 El Niño is forecast to return in 2023. Here’s what it might mean for extreme weather and global warming.

There were reports that India could see a one million mt drop in wheat production this season due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in pockets of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, resulting in losses ranging from around 25-50 per cent.

However, the country’s Food Secretary said the government does not expect any shortfall in wheat production. He added that the country would “probably end up with the same figure of 112 million mt of production or in the worst-case scenario, there will be a negligible drop.”

Even so, India’s government said the wheat export ban would continue if the country feels uncomfortable with domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the government may relax norms to procure wheat from farmers for domestic reserves.

The Business Recorder is worried about global wheat security, writing that per capita availability has declined from 111 kg per person in 1990 to under 100 kg per person in 2020. Meanwhile, The Economist is worried about rice yields, writing that they have increased by less than one per cent yearly over the past decade.

Argentina, expected to harvest around 25 million mt of soybeans this season, may have to import up to 10 million mt, more than double previous years, mainly from Paraguay and Brazil. Luckily, Brazil is harvesting a record crop.

Agricensus has a long read on the changing dynamics in world soybean flows.

Some US farmers are switching to non-GM corn to meet Mexico’s ban on GM corn.

Brazil’s Agriculture Minister has asked COFCO for further investment in Brazilian railways and waterways and financing farmland restoration.

Egypt has raised domestic food subsidies spending by 20 per cent in its FY 2023/24 draft budget.

Tunisia’s agriculture ministry has banned water use for irrigation because of a disastrous drought.

Nutrien’s CEO has warned that global fertiliser supplies will stay tight in 2023.

Shell has abandoned plans to make biofuels in Singapore, particularly SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuels).

Shipping

A group of US congressmen have introduced a bill to scrap the exemption for ocean shipping companies from federal antitrust laws.

Danish owner J Lauritzen has signed a letter of intent to build at least two methanol dual-fuelled bulk carriers in Japan, backed by long-term time charters to Cargill.

The global operations director for Cargill Ocean Transportation in Geneva has given an excellent interview.

Livestock farming

Climate change could significantly shrink profit margins for the world’s meat and dairy farmers, according to an estimate by a large investor group known as FAIRR.

Farmers protesting against the Dutch government’s plans to reduce livestock numbers have formed a political party.

The Washington Post asks whether carbon-neutral beef is a pipe dream.

Environmentalists are objecting to an A-minus sustainability grade that the Climate Change Report has given to JBS, a Brazilian meat company previously linked to deforestation.

Italy’s government has approved a bill banning laboratory-produced meat to protect the country’s livestock farmers.

An Australian company has made a meatball from lab-grown cultured meat using the genetic sequence of the long-extinct mammoth. Meanwhile, a Belgian startup has added woolly mammoth protein to a plant-based burger. (Will Pterosaur Nuggets be next?)

Sustainability

Deforestation associated with oil palm cultivation has declined in recent years in Indonesia. Still, the forest is being cleared at a record pace in a biodiversity haven at the northern tip of Sumatra.

Bloomberg has an interesting short video on how the sector is working to make palm oil more sustainable.

The Bureau of Investigative Journalism has found that migrants on the UK’s farmworker visa scheme face systematic bullying, abuse and growing debt.

Reuters has a long read on the failed attempts to raise income for West Africa’s cocoa farmers.

Innovation

ADM and Brightseed have partnered to decipher the molecular interactions between dietary plants and gut microbes and their potential impact on human health.

Researchers at the University of Bonn have discovered gene variants in wheat and barley that improve nitrogen utilisation.

Bloomberg has an article on how Bunge is helping food processing companies to innovate.

Lastly, we have known for a while that plants communicate with one another, but a new study identified words and found that different species speak different languages.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2023

Many of the above news articles require subscriptions. Please support quality journalism.

Ag-Trader news

Ukraine war

Traders were caught a little off balance last week by a report that Russia could temporarily halt wheat and sunflower exports after a sharp drop in global prices.

Reuters quoted a source as saying that the government has asked exporters to set a wheat export price of not lower than $275 per tonne “until further notice”.

Traders were already confused about the Black Sea grain corridor extension. Ukraine says it has been extended for 120 days, while Russia says it is only for 60 days.

Russia has laid out their conditions for agreeing to any further extension, including restoring access to the SWIFT system for state-owned agriculture-focused bank Rosselkhozbank, resumption of farm machinery supplies, and unblocking foreign assets and accounts held by Russian agricultural companies.

The FT has an excellent long read on how Russia’s invasion has destroyed significant parts of Ukraine’s grain export infrastructure.

Ukraine’s farmers are planting less acreage than last year. The International Grains Council forecasts Ukraine’s grain output at 47 million mt, about half its pre-war level. The government has warned that the 2023 combined grain and oilseed harvest could fall to 63 million mt, down from 70 million mt harvested in 2022. The good news is that the winter grain crops are in a good-excellent state.

The European Commission has proposed allocating €56 million from the EU budget to help Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania cope with increased imports of cereals and oilseeds coming from neighbouring Ukraine. Ukraine’s exports have particularly hurt Romania’s farmers.

Other market news

The La Niña weather phenomenon has officially ended, but there is a 50 per cent possibility that an El Niño event could form later this year.

The UK’s annual food price inflation hit 18 per cent in February, the highest level since the 1970s, pushing the Consumer Prices Index up by 10.4 per cent compared to a year earlier. The price of Bloomberg’s basket of English breakfast items soared past £35, an increase of more than 22 per cent from a year earlier.

A Brexit-induced farm labour shortage is partly to blame for the rise.

The Indonesian government has approved a variety of GM wheat for human consumption designed to resist drought better. In a long read, World-Grain asks whether GM wheat has a future in the US.

Biofuels

The UK government plans to eliminate import tariffs on palm oil from Malaysia, the price of joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Bloomberg fears that a global biofuel boom could lead to a shortage of vegetable oils.

Chevron has announced a collaboration with Corteva and Bunge to produce renewable diesel from canola. The joint venture will plant as many as 10 million additional acres of canola in the southern US.

Big companies are abandoning research into producing biodiesel from algae, but the BBC wonders whether kelp has a future in sustainable aviation fuel.

Company News

Bunge has made it into the S&P 500, replacing the ill-fated Signature Bank.

Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) reported a 44 per cent jump in 2022 net profits to just over $1 billion from $697 million in 2021.  Net sales rose almost 21 per cent to $59.9 billion from $49.6 billion.

Viterra posted a record EBITDA of $2.65 billion for the 2022 calendar year, a 21 per cent increase from the previous year. Revenue increased 35 per cent to $54 billion.

Container shipping companies have been in the spotlight, paying billions of dollars in dividends following last year’s record profits.

Animal Farm

China has agreed to resume imports of Brazilian beef and approved four new beef packers. Brazil voluntarily halted exports to China on 23rd February after discovering an atypical case of mad cow disease.

Meanwhile, a surge in African swine fever infections in China could reduce domestic pork production.

Switzerland has reported a case of mad cow disease – bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) – in the eastern region of Grisons. The relevant authorities classified the case as atypical.

Avian influenza’s spread through Europe’s poultry flocks has eased, but authorities are concerned that cases may rebound as wild birds migrate in spring.

The Environment

The latest IPCC climate report paints a stark picture of the world’s food systems, but solutions exist.

Are we facing phosphogeddon? Some scientists warn that the misuse of phosphorus could lead to a shortage of fertilisers. However, the problem may be solving itself. We may already have reached peak fertiliser. Microbes and regenerative agriculture might accelerate the move away from fertiliser.

Paraquat, banned in more than 50 countries, including the EU, China, and Brazil, is still one of the most popular herbicides in the US. It will go on trial in October, accused by more than 3,000 farmers of contributing to their Parkinson’s disease.

European lawmakers have finally agreed on a timeline for the EU’s plan to cut pesticide use, which leaves a final deal on the file unlikely in 2023.

In a long read, the FT argues that rich nations are not looking good in the debate over palm oil. They are also behind on their plan to plough $1 billion into soybean and cattle farming free of deforestation in threatened South American ecosystems by 2025.

PepsiCo’s chief sustainability officer has warned that half of the world’s population will face water scarcity as soon as 2025.

A study published in Nature shows that cradle-to-grave emissions from food loss and waste represent half of total greenhouse gas emissions from food systems. If correct, it might mean that the best – and easiest – way you can help the environment is to stop throwing food away.

The FT has a different take. It writes that selling your SUV is the best way to help the environment is to sell your SUV.

Nutrition and Health

Nestlé says less than half of its mainstream food and drinks are considered healthy.

It is ironic – and perhaps inevitable – that Novo Nordisk, the maker of the weight-loss drug, Wegovy, is now worth more than Nestlé SA, the world’s biggest food company.

But why do we like unhealthy and fattening foods so much? A new study published in Neuroscience News attempts to answer that question, while the New Scientist explains why people regain weight after dieting.

© Commodity Conversations® 2023

Many of the above links require subscriptions. Please support quality journalism.

Diversity Champion: Sheryl Wallace, President, North America Grain, at Cargill

 

Since 2015, McKinsey and Company has investigated the business case for diversity, and its most recent findings, published in its report Diversity Wins, have reaffirmed that the relationship between diversity on executive teams and the likelihood of financial outperformance has strengthened over time.

However, the report found that significant, sustainable progress remains a challenge for some companies, with organisations initiating fragmented diversity and inclusion initiatives and lacking a clear link with the company’s core business strategy.

Sheryl Wallace, President, North America Grain, at Cargill, speaks to HC Insider about Cargill’s commitment to increasing the diversity of its workforce, creating an inclusive environment, and removing barriers to ensure equitable access. We also explore Wallace’s career in agriculture, how she is building inclusive teams to unleash the power of diversity, and her advice for others climbing the corporate ladder.

HC Insider: Please tell us about your career leading up to your current role at Cargill.

Sheryl Wallace: I am grateful for the incredible 26-year career I’ve had at Cargill. My first assignment was in Iowa Falls, IA where I was a soybean meal merchant in Oilseed Processing. I was immersed in the heartland, learning the business and fell in love with agriculture. The next two decades took me on a journey through different businesses and roles such as edible oils, flour milling, financial services, and energy while serving in commercial, trading and merchandising, sales and marketing, and risk management positions. Before moving into my current role, I led Cargill’s Corporate Risk Management Group that has fiduciary oversight for trading, credit, and balance sheet risks.

HC Insider: What does your current role involve?

SW: I currently have the privilege of leading our North America grain business. Cargill was founded from a single grain elevator back in 1865, making this a very special place. I am so proud of our team who shows up every day to deliver on our purpose of nourishing the world and doing so in a safe, responsible, and sustainable way. At the heart of what we do, and what I love about our business, is the fact that we sit in the center of the supply chain with thousands of people helping farmers to be successful and connecting them to domestic markets and global supply chains. Our grain network has over 100 elevators, export terminals, and a large barge fleet, therefore operations, supply chain and logistics are also critical to our business. You’ll find me equally comfortable in the office or wearing my boots and hardhat at a facility. I also serve on the National Grain and Feed Association Executive Committee & Board and Ardent Mills’ Board of Directors.

A lot of people see mentoring as a one-way relationship but for me, it’s about having the opportunity to meet new people, gain perspective and learn from mentees.

HC Insider: What are you passionate about and how has that fuelled your success?

SW: I am passionate about our people and helping them reach their potential. During my career, I benefited from mentors and having a strong network, so giving back to others is important and fuels my passion. A lot of people see mentoring as a one-way relationship but for me, it’s about having the opportunity to meet new people, gain perspective and learn from mentees. In addition to mentoring and cultivating networks for others, I’m passionate about leading teams to accomplish more than they think is possible. I’m proud of working at Cargill where we recently refreshed our strategic direction and at its core, is all about investing deeply in our people. Family is especially important to me, too. We have four children ranging from 15 to 29 so when I’m not at work, you’ll often find me at a soccer field or basketball court cheering on my son or daughter and their team.

HC Insider: What does your role as Executive Sponsor of Cargill’s Global Women’s Network (CWN) involve?

SW: I serve as the senior leader advisor to our global women’s network. I have the honor of being a sounding board, resource, and a thought leader asking critical questions. We have a talented group of women and men leading our global women’s network. So, mostly, I just stay out of their way. Between our CWN business resource group and our Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) team, there is passion and commitment towards achieving gender parity. This commitment is prevalent in our C-Suite. A milestone in Cargill’s DEI journey of achieving gender parity, is that our Executive Team is now made up of 50% women.

HC Insider: Was there a point in your career or personal life where you started thinking more about diversity?

SW: When I started my career in the mid-90s, the company, and society in general, was very different from where we are today. Back then, diversity wasn’t talked about, if anything there was emphasis on “fitting in” and conforming in the work environment in order to be successful. Differences weren’t celebrated. When I became a trader in our Minneapolis office, there were probably 50 to 60 people on our trade floor, almost all men. I remember my first day being pulled aside by one of the assistants who said she was excited to see a female on the trade floor. She went on to say I “should get myself a nice navy or black suit to look like the guys”. I had not thought about that moment until years later when I went through unconscious bias training and reflected on the different experiences I had. But more importantly, I learned about the biases that I carry and gained tools to navigate them in ways that supported my DEI values. It was also a turning point for me to appreciate that I grew up in a family who believed in me and encouraged me to do or be anything I wanted. I learned this was not the same for others and how powerful it is when you remove visible and invisible barriers. I saw colleagues become more innovative, engaged in their work, and contributing in meaningful ways. This sparked a passion and compelled me to be a champion of inclusion and diversity. At Cargill, we’re focused on culture, values, behaviors, and expectations – we’ve made significant progress towards our commitment on diversity of gender and unrepresented minorities.

Working in agriculture is not for the faint-hearted. We are affected by macro-environment factors, geopolitical events like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the trade war between the US and China, supply chain issues, and of course Mother Nature. While there are challenges, we have incredible opportunities to make an impact.

HC Insider: What are some of your career highlights?

SW: I have so many career highlights, where do I begin? I have been fortunate; having a career where I’ve met incredible people, had opportunities to learn, grow and contribute in meaningful ways, and have a fulfilling work and personal life. One highlight is that our family moved to Geneva, Switzerland in 2009 where I led one of our financial services businesses overseeing Europe, Middle East/Africa, and Asia Pacific. We were grateful for the family time while living abroad. To this day, my daughter jokes with me on how much I relied on her to speak French and navigate grocery stores or the doctor’s office. She was only five years old, but her French was much better than mine! The business accomplishment was more than doubling profitability. Another career highlight came in 2016 where I was asked to transform our Corporate Risk Management Group, creating the vision and strategic direction, then activating it by harmonizing disparate processes, modernizing our risk metrics, and deploying a global risk management reporting system. I am proud of that team and what was accomplished in a short period. Traveling with our team, meeting customers, and touring our facilities is always a highlight. As I reflect, there are so many great memories that bring a smile to my face and deep appreciation to these special experiences. For example, I’ve visited schools in Vietnam built by Cargill, walked soybean fields in Brazil with our team to assess crops, tasted coffee at roasting facilities in Guatemala with customers, toured beef slaughterhouses, visited one of the most modern flour mills in the US, and rode a tugboat on the Mississippi River hauling barges filled with our grain.

HC Insider: What were some of the challenges you faced and how did you overcome them?

SW: Working in agriculture is not for the faint-hearted. We are affected by macro-environment factors, geopolitical events like the trade war between the US and China or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and of course the global Covid-19 pandemic. We are experiencing ongoing supply chain disruptions and extreme weather events. The list goes on and there will always be challenges. To deal with them, I’ve had to adjust my mindset by focusing on three things. The first is focusing on what’s in your control. We can’t control everything, but we can control how we respond, the contingencies we have in place and how we show up for our customers and teams. This is where being guided by values matter. The second is staying optimistic and asking yourself, ‘how can I turn this challenge into an opportunity?’ This doesn’t mean being dismissive about the challenge. It’s important to lean into the reality of what you are facing. I believe that you need to be authentic yet optimistic when helping your teams navigate change or challenges. The third pillar for me is focusing on your team’s well-being. We’ve learned the importance of this through the pandemic. People may not remember what you did for them, but they will remember how you made them feel.

We need to encourage companies to not think about DEI as a separate initiative. When it’s embedded into your culture, your values, in your leadership principles, and the management systems, then it really starts to take off.

HC Insider: How has Cargill created equity in the workplace?

SW: I am proud of the actions Cargill is taking to create equity. We offer several programs providing equitable access to opportunities and resources to be successful. Another area of focus is our commitment to our frontline workers. We want to ensure all of our facilities are inclusive, safe, accessible, and convenient for all employees. We also have uniforms that offer different fit, so everyone feels part of the team and is comfortable in their daily attire. You can’t be your best when you don’t feel your best. When it comes to hiring talent, we expect diverse interview panels, so that we hear different perspectives on assessing talent. When applying for jobs, we know that women and underrepresented minorities take a job description more literally and question if they have every skill. Sometimes they won’t throw their name into the hat because of this. This is why we’re also challenging ourselves on the actual requirements needed for a job versus what is just preferred. Another example is that we’ve sent hundreds, if not thousands of people through unconscious bias training. To achieve our purpose, we need a culture that is inclusive, where employees feel welcomed, valued, and heard, and where employees have equitable access to resources to be their best. I love the theme for this year’s International Women’s Day, #EmbraceEquity.

HC Insider: How have you helped to develop and encourage talent? 

SW: I have a passion for developing people and leading teams — being an ally to colleagues too. It’s important to respect everyone and their ideas, and also be more assertive when recognizing bias. I try to provide an inclusive workplace where people can share their voice and form allyships. Being an ally can look different from person to person. I was in a meeting where a woman had come in late, and she pulled up a chair but was sitting outside of the circle around the table. All it took for her to feel included was one person moving back and making space for her. Simple actions can go a long way. Everyone can be a DEI advocate. I think it’s also important to have connections with people that can give you honest, candid feedback. I appreciate the courageous conversations – this is how we learn and grow.

HC Insider: How can DEI be a priority for organizations?

SW: When diversity, equity and inclusion are lived out in your organization, you can deliver on your purpose. When you create a sense of belonging in your workplace, employees will be more engaged. When DEI is a priority, you are better positioned to serve customers, solve complex challenges, and attract and retain the best talent and outperform others.  We should encourage companies to not think about DEI as a separate initiative. It should be embedded into your culture, your values, in your leadership principles, and the management systems, then it really starts to take off. That’s how you create a sustainable culture around fostering inclusion, providing equity, and ultimately becoming more diverse. And, I do believe that the commitment from senior leaders is critical. The tone needs to be set from the top that DEI is a priority and to have measurable goals.

Sheryl’s top tips for career success:

I use the acronym D.A.R.E. and shared it recently with a mentor who felt stuck.

D stands for Dream. This is about dreaming big, believing in yourself, and setting your sights high.

A stands for Authentic, and at the heart of this is bringing your best self to work.

This leads to the R, which stands for Results. Being result-oriented is important so you don’t lose sight of what you’re trying to achieve – outcomes matter.

And then the last letter, E, stands for Empower. There are two sides to this – being empowered and owning your career and also empowering others by paying it forward.

In the end, I want people to have the courage to DARE, to be their best self and reach their full potential because it’s so worth it!

To speak to HC Global’s Agriculture and Nutrition team, please contact:

Alex Coghlan, Director for the Agriculture and Nutrition practice

Heather Falgout, Senior Associate, Agriculture and Nutrition practice

 

A conversation with Alex Coghlan – HC Group

Good morning, Alex. Could you please tell me a little about you and HC Group?

Hi Jonathan. I joined HC Group in 2012 in our London office before moving to America to help grow our global agribusiness practice. The practice is focused on leadership assignments across agriculture, animal nutrition and health and food ingredients.

We help companies that feed the world. Playing a small role in that mission keeps me passionate and excited about the industry’s future.

HC Group was established in 2003. We identify business-critical talent for organizations across the global energy, metals and agricultural value chains. We also provide data-informed talent advisory around organizational structure, strategy, and compensation.

How important are ags for HC Group?

HC Group works across the commodities value chain. Ags is one of the three pillars of our business, alongside energy and metals.

Today, the war for biofuel talent has never been fiercer. As energy companies seek to decarbonize their platforms, the demand for vegetable oil procurement, analytics, and trading professionals outweighs the supply. This talent pool is highly specialized and relatively sparse. It is now being recruited by both the agriculture and energy industries, leading to an unprecedented level of competition between these two sectors.

Given the strength of our network in the energy and agriculture market, we have a unique position in the industry. It has helped our contacts and clients pivot from the agriculture to the energy industry.

What are the challenges in getting people to move from ags to energy?

I would say location is often the challenge. In the US this talent pool is primarily located in the US Midwest. People are often reluctant to relocate away from the Midwest to traditional energy trading hubs in the US Southeast or East Coast. Energy companies with flexibility around location will be the best positioned to secure the talent.

How is the ag-employment market now? What sectors are hot – what types of companies are recruiting?

 During 2022, US energy trading firms, refiners, and producers were hiring commercial heads for their biofuel platforms. We worked with them to identify individuals capable of creating the strategy to build the business. It is not as easy as it sounds; it can be challenging to source the necessary feedstocks. These individuals often must educate the energy majors about the ags markets. Oil traders might ask, “What do you mean you’ve lost the crop – where has it gone!” You must explain that growing crops is different from drilling for oil!

This year, in the US, these firms are building their teams and hiring contributor personnel, such as biofuel feedstock procurement specialists – the rung below the commercial head. The demand for biofuel expertise has cooled off relative to traditional vegetable oil feedstocks, with the focus now on advanced feedstocks experience with products such as UCO and tallow.

In the past year, the energy-trading houses have been looking to diversify their revenue schemes by going into ags. The energy trading companies have been relatively agnostic as to the agri-product line.

Energy trading houses such as Gunvor, Hartree Partners and Vitol hired new agricultural trading talent to their platform. Existing hedge funds such as Citadel and Millennium expanded their teams, while more recent entrants such as LMR Partners, Qube and Squarepoint have entered the market.

The significant hedge funds are also looking to diversify into commodities, agriculture included. Millennium is an example. The company recently hired Todd Thul, ex-head of Cargill’s corn desk.

In previous commodity bull markets, hedge funds have hired successful traders only for the traders to crash and burn. How can a hedge fund ensure that a physical trader will be profitable independent of the physical flows and assets and without access to information and analysis?

It is the million-dollar question!

While past performance does not guarantee future returns, it’s arguably the most valuable measurable when hiring talent. The number of individuals the hedge funds are genuinely courting remains relatively small, given how challenging it is to consistently return steady P&L numbers, year in and year out, without having an asset infrastructure behind you.

The hedge funds have more interest in talent that has already left a trading house and proved themselves in an asset-light environment without the information flow and support system to help them make trading decisions. Industry reputation and referencing talent within their peer group is one way we look to understand past performance, which in turn gives a good idea of the top percentile of successful prop traders.

I hear that the market for traders is so hot that hiring firms offer multi-million dollar signing fees. Is that true?

Yes. While some rumours are hearsay from traders, and numbers get inflated, some individuals are receiving million-dollar signing-up fees to move. But that’s also the compensation for the opportunity cost of leaving a safer environment in an ABCD. It’s a risk-reward decision. There is a high demand for agri-prop talent, and traders will look to capitalize on their market worth.

I sometimes wonder why a high-performing leader would leave a trading leadership role to move to a hedge fund. Typically, the number two and number three trader on the desk will make that move. (1)

What advice would you give to a traditional trading house in this environment – how can they keep their teams together?

 Trading companies must expect a certain level of attrition as they cannot compete with hedge funds and energy trading houses in terms of potential bonus upside. If individuals leave the business purely for compensation, that’s not something I would spend time worrying about.

High-performing organizations require people strategies. Engagement, retention, and growth are all intertwined and should be essential business strategies. Ultimately, engagement is about employee discretionary effort; they can give or withhold it at any time. Leaders need to know their employees well and react to their needs.

Communication is vital in any organization, and it is what underpins everything. To retain talent, focus on skillset development and leadership development. Better leaders create better teams, which creates higher retention. Focus on employee development. It’s a manager’s responsibility to grow your team’s skillsets and help them achieve their goals individually and as a whole.

If you are a big trade house, you must ask yourself why other people who are not necessarily or exclusively motivated by money are leaving. Maybe you don’t have clear succession plans in place.

The line manager should not underestimate the importance of one-to-one meetings to engage and retain employees. They give line managers a clear line of sight about what the employee needs to do and where they are going. They enable the line manager to have individual time with the employee, understand if they are OK, and detect any early signs of any changes that need to happen. Do they know their future career path and the succession plan for their leaders?

Succession planning is a serious issue for the industry. The ag industry is cyclical, and you see that in hiring and firing. Four or five years ago, the ag sector was depressing – the margins weren’t there, and companies were laying off traders. The problem was that they let go of the mid-career traders – the 25- to 35-year-olds. The trading houses have gaps in their succession plans. In addition, structures flattened during the lean years, and people don’t now have the rungs to move up the ladder.

Ask yourself how you engage with your traders on their career plans. How often do you sit down with them and map out their future? What are their pain points – their frustrations? The talent pool is in tight supply at C Suite succession planning and for mid-level bench strength. There is a missing generation of 40-55-year-olds, and everyone is struggling to fund succession planning solutions. The reality is young talent earlier will be pushed up faster into leadership roles than ever before. (2)

Looking at the other side of the coin, what advice would you give someone approached by a hedge fund employer?

 First, you must ask yourself where you want to be long term. Some people like to stay in an individual contributor role – to stay as a trader on a desk, and some want to move into leadership positions. These are two different paths. If the latter, you should probably stay.

Second, you should do your due diligence on the platform you are joining. You must understand their mindset and their expectations – are their expectations realistic? You know the returns you can achieve – would the new platform be comfortable with those returns? You must also evaluate their risk appetite. Traders must take risks to make money, but some employers may not be comfortable with those risks.

Third, you must also ask yourself to what extent the new platform understands commodity markets – particularly the ag markets. It may be riskier if you join an equity hedge fund with no experience in commodities.

Fourth, you must ask to what extent the new platform is investing in building its commodity trading capacity. For example, Citadel has built a first-class commodity research team that will help traders analyze their markets, but it also shows that they are investing in the sector long term.

Fifth, you must balance the risk and reward because a fund will pay you more than a trade house when you get the market right but will fire you quicker when you get it wrong. And traders always get markets wrong at some stage in their careers.

Last, you must ask yourself, what if they fire me within two years? Have I burnt my bridges? Is the risk worth it?

Hedge funds are fantastic places to make money as a trader if you are successful, but it is a challenging environment if you have a bad run. An equities hedge fund may not understand the commodity business. I would feel more comfortable recommending someone to join an energy trading house that understands physical flows and how the commodity markets work. There are tremendous opportunities, but you must be selective.

Commodities have a reputation for being male-dominated and macho. To what extent is that reputation warranted?

 That is a fair assessment, but it is starting to change. It’s changing at the junior level as organizations now hire different profiles out of college. The biggest challenge lies in middle and senior leadership because all the companies have the same profile. We recently ran a position for a senior economic analyst for the global ags landscape, and only eight per cent of the candidates were female.

HC Group has launched a Diversity Champions series for its content hub, HC Insider. The series will feature senior-level talent representing various backgrounds and experiences to promote and drive inclusion in the commodity markets. Most recently, we interviewed Jaime Goehner, Commercial Manager at ADM, about her career journey, what has been critical to her success, and how she is helping to develop talent.

If you would like to be interviewed in the Diversity Champions series, please contact Heather Falgout to discuss.

Suppose your best friend’s daughter wanted to get into commodities – would you advise her to go into energy, metals or ags? Do the different sectors require different profiles?

The skillsets you acquire are transferable between the three sectors, but I recommend agriculture. I love the industry and its people, so that is probably a biased answer!

And education levels – Bachelor, Masters, MBA, PhD? When I began in the business, the big companies liked to recruit people after a BA degree and train them themselves. Is that still the case?

 Yes, graduate development programmes are a must. However, companies need to be aware of changing desires of the next generation, particularly around energy transition and sustainability. Companies need to engage in how they are part of the solution.

That said, and why HC Group exists, companies always need external talent to take on new markets and regions. The same applies to building a vision for these individuals, given the increased opportunities out there. That messaging is critical and a significant part of our work for client partners.

Do you see a change in capabilities required to be a successful trader?

Much remains the same. Curiosity, commerciality, and relationship building, but added to the mix now is the need to be technologically savvy. Digitization and the velocity of the market mean traders need to understand risk management much more and be literate when it comes to developments in analytics and modelling. We recommend everyone tries to get a basic understanding of coding and statistics.

How do you imagine AI will change future trading desks?

 The most significant advancements are taking place in the pre-trade space for AI. Companies are increasingly looking at more advanced ways to analyze and interpret the vast quantities of structured and unstructured data aggregators provide.

 What advice would you give young people thinking of getting into the sector?

First, invest in yourself. Your only competitive advantage is your ability to learn faster than your competition. What are you doing to support your career? Investing in yourself is the best investment you can make.

Second, build relationships within the industry. The people we hire are typically the ones recommended to us by their peers, their managers from years ago, or their competitors with whom they trade. Build networks.

Thank you, Alex, for your time and input.

(1) I may be able to add a little to that. Many successful traders don’t know if they are only successful because they work for an ABCD+ company. You sometimes see top traders moving from the big trade houses to test themselves – to find their true worth.

You also have top traders who feel too restricted by their VAR limits. Their companies may have stopped them from a position, only for the market to turn and move in their favour. Fausto Felice – the ex-head of Cargill’s wheat desk – mentioned this when I interviewed him for my book Commodity Crops – And The Merchants Who Trade Them.

(2) In The New Merchants of Grain, I asked CJ Van den Akker, then head of Cargill’s trading activities, how he felt about people leaving. He replied:

I have mixed feelings about that. In one sense, it bothers me. Through our training, we’re feeding our competitors with talent. But at the same time, I’m proud that we recruit and train people so well. That tells you a lot about this company and how we invest in our people. I think that’s a good thing.

But frankly, there is no choice at the end of the day. We’re a pyramidal structure. People are promoted on merit and will fall out of that system. Our objective is to maintain our strongest talent. We don’t always succeed. But not everyone can reach the top, so people will always seek other opportunities. I think that’s OK. It’s the way the system works; it’s inevitable.

 © Commodity Conversations ® 2023

Ag-Trader News

Russia will talk with the UN in Geneva this week about renewing the Ukraine grain export deal. Ukraine will not speak directly with Russia but through its partners. The UN Secretary-General visited Ukraine last week to discuss the deal.

Russia has said that the current deal was only being “half-implemented”, raising doubts about whether it would allow an extension of the agreement due to expire next week. Russia said it would only agree to extend the if the interests of its agricultural producers are considered. Even so, Cargill’s Chairman is optimistic that the Black Sea deal will be renewed.

Ukraine exported 5.2 million mt of grain in February, bringing overall grain exports so far this season to 32.3 million mt, down almost 26 per cent on the previous season.

Ukraine’s grain harvest may fall 37 per cent to 34 million mt in 2023 because of a smaller grain sowing area and lower yield. In the short term, most of Ukraine’s winter grain crops – winter wheat and barley – are in good condition and could produce a good harvest.

It will be a challenge for the country to rebuild its agricultural production in the long term. The war has degraded at least 10.5 million hectares – a quarter of the country’s agricultural land.

Other market news

The UN FAO Food Index fell 0.6 per cent in February, down for an eleventh month in the longest run of losses in data going back three decades. The index is down 19 per cent from a record set in 2022.

However, UK grocery prices rose at an annual rate of 17.1 per cent in February, their fastest pace in 15 years, adding £811 to the average British household’s yearly shopping bill.

Wealth managers and banks are again encouraging their customers to buy commodities in times of inflation, a strategy that failed in the past.

LDC expects global food prices to stay volatile this year.

Hedge funds have made a significant comeback into commodities this past year, offering massive signing bonuses to bring on expertise. Citadel is one recent entrant that has been successful.

The US has requested formal trade consultations with Mexico over the country’s plans to limit imports of GM corn. If you, like me, struggle to follow the US corn dispute with Mexico, Reuters has a good explainer.

China looks to shore up its food security amid heightened geopolitical risks and wants to boost its grain production capacity by 50 million mt in 2023.

Climate / Weather

The La Nina weather phenomenon appears to have ended after provoking three years of crop-destroying droughts. Some meteorologists believe it will quickly transition to El Nino, even as early as this Northern Hemisphere summer.

Argentina’s farmers will be relieved. However, the damage has already been done. Forecasts for the country’s 2022/23 soybean harvest have been cut to 27 million mt, even worse than the 27.5 million mt harvested in the 2000/2001 season.

Drought has also affected corn production. The government will allow corn exporters to reschedule planned corn shipments.

Italy and France are bracing for a second consecutive year of drought after an abnormally dry winter.

There is confusing news from Australia where the BBC headlines the latest ABARES report with the headline Australia: Crop exports set for record high after heavy rains. At the same time, Bloomberg goes with Australia Sees Wheat Exports Plunging 20 Per Cent on Drier Climate.

North Korea is teetering on the brink of famine with a surge in deaths from hunger. The country’s leader has ordered urgent infrastructure improvements and farmland expansion to ramp up food production.

Wheat

Brazil has approved the cultivation of drought-resistant GM wheat, making it the second country after Argentina to do so.

Further north, BASF is halting the development of hybrid wheat in North America after the results of seed trials failed to reach development goals. Growers fear it could drive more wheat acres out of the US.

Meanwhile, acres of non-durum wheat in Canada could rise as much as 7.3 per cent in 2023 as growers shift acres away from oats and pulses.

There is an increasing possibility that India, the third-biggest producer of wheat in the world, will import wheat to supply the domestic market.

Biofuels

Brazil will produce six billion litres of corn ethanol in the 2023/2024 season that begins in April, up 36.7 per cent over last season. Corn ethanol is expected to account for 19 per cent of all ethanol consumed in the country next season, up from 13.7 per cent in the current season.

Palm Oil

Indonesia plans to require crude palm oil exports to go through a futures exchange to create the country’s own benchmark price.

A leading analyst told a conference that the EU’s deforestation law is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on palm oil demand as consumption is rising consumption in developing countries. Indonesia’s biofuel policy should also help to keep prices high.

Sustainable development

Child labour and deforestation still plague the cocoa supply chain.

A new study warns that emissions from the food system alone will drive the world past 1.5C of global warming unless high-methane foods are tackled. The Washington Post suggests you eat these climate-friendly foods if you want to help. Unfortunately, avocado is not one of them.

Australia is pushing ahead with plans to phase out live sheep exports.

The debate continues over the pros and cons of vertical farming. Some believe that the bubble is finally popping.

Shipping

India has withdrawn trading licences for oil tankers and bulk carriers that are more than 25 years old.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2023

Many of the above links require subscriptions. Please support quality journalism.

A Conversation with Petya Sechanova – CEO of Covantis

Good morning, Petya, and welcome to Commodity Conversations. Could you please tell me a little about yourself?

I was born and raised in Sofia, Bulgaria. After earning my bachelor’s degree, I completed an MBA with SDA Bocconi in Milan, focusing on international business. I then moved to Belgium, beginning my career with DHL, working in logistics.

In 2009, I joined Cargill in Belgium as a trade execution operator – what people used to call forwarding. Operators ensure the correct execution of contracts. The function involves coordinating the various links in the supply chain from vessel nominations, supervision etc. and ensuring that the documents are in order.

Remember that commodity traders don’t trade commodities; they trade documents! Buyers pay for their goods before they receive them – often weeks before they receive them!

In 2010 I relocated to Geneva, Switzerland. In 2011, Cargill acquired the Australian Wheat Board, and I moved to Melbourne, Australia, where I spent two years working on merging the trade execution functions for the two companies.

I returned to Geneva in 2013, where I worked myself up to become the global head of execution for the Cargill agricultural supply chain.

How did Covantis come about?

As I moved into management positions, I found that my biggest challenge was to attract and retain talent. People would join the team and quickly master and manage the routine work. They got bored and moved on to more exciting parts of the business, like trading, analytics, or IT.

I increasingly tried to digitalize the trade execution function. I became passionate about the potential for new technologies, such as Blockchain or Artificial Intelligence, to take over the routine part of trade execution. I knew we had to modernize the sector and make it more attractive to the younger generation.

I also knew we couldn’t just do it on our own. Digitalization had to be a cross-industry initiative, pulling together like-minded professionals from other trading organizations.

All trading companies are spending a lot of effort and investments in innovation and IT – but we knew we couldn’t do the job alone. The industry is interconnected. It is a complex ecosystem that includes banks, supervision companies, agents, vessel owners, governmental organizations, and chambers of commerce. These participants work together to ensure that the supply chain operates smoothly and efficiently.

We wanted to create a project that was “by the industry, for the industry.” So, in 2018, we joined forces with ADM, Bunge, and Louis Dreyfus Company to start working on the project. COFCO and Viterra (then Glencore Agri) joined shortly afterwards, and Marubeni joined in 2022.

Our initial challenge was deciding on which sections of the value chain to focus. Should we start with farming and move through to retail, or should we narrow the scope? Should we concentrate on grains and oilseeds or broaden the range of commodities? Should we focus on origination – and if so, in what geographies?

As you can imagine, setting up an organization that at that time brought together six of the world’s largest agricultural trading companies, we had to ensure that we would be 100 per cent compliant with international anti-trust legislation.

We worked this all out, and, in 2020 – in the middle of Covid – we set up Covantis SA as a legal entity in Geneva, co-owned by its six founding members. It was effectively a technology start-up.

As I mentioned, I was part of the project team from day one and one of the initiators of the idea. I applied for the position of CEO, and I was selected.

I am excited and passionate about both my role and the company. I have a fabulous board of directors, including G-J van den Akker, an Independent Board Advisor.

Could you give me your Covantis elevator pitch – how would you explain what you do in a few sentences?

Covantis aims to accelerate global trade transformation by solving industry challenges through technology. Our vision is to create a fair, trusted platform that brings better efficiency, transparency, and information exchange for everyone working to feed the world.

How many employees do you have?

We partnered with  Consensys, an external supplier who initially developed the software for our network platform. Our original idea was to have a relatively small in-house team. In 2020, there were 18 of us: the leadership team, product development, commercial, training and onboarding. We were a core group of experts, setting the direction for our vision, strategy, and scope.

We always knew that we would gradually move our software development in-house. To be a high-performing tech company, you must build the bench and knowledge inside the company to create a legacy and leverage these capabilities to expand to new processes and scope.

We started working with our partner Consensys in 2021 to see how we could develop the necessary capabilities in-house, and we are now pretty much an entirely in-house organization.

We are a team of sixty people, although we plan to increase that number by a little, perhaps to seventy.

Covantis is incorporated in Geneva, where we have considerable commodity trading talent locally, but it is challenging to find software engineers or specific product design and development roles here.

In 2022 we established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Bulgaria. We have an engaged team in Ukraine who continues to deliver high-quality work despite the war. We have people in Romania, Poland, Germany, Spain, the UK, the Netherlands, Malta, Italy, and Brazil.

We partner with an outside organization to provide global customer support to our users, and we have service providers who help us adjust to the workload.

What is the most challenging part of managing your teams?

We are a remote organization that has been scaling up very fast. We have attracted fantastic talent, but the commodity trading industry knowledge and challenges are new to most newcomers. We need to constantly invest our time in learning and development and stay up to date on the latest industry trends.

What about managing the different geographies and cultures?

It has been challenging, particularly with Covid. We recently held our first face-to-face meeting since 2020, where an important discussion point was how to build a high-performance organization when everyone works remotely. It is standard in the IT sector for people to work from home or shared offices, but they must be connected, collaborate and be up to date on the product direction and strategy.

 In preparation for this conversation, I watched a webinar from this time last year. At that time, you said that your biggest challenge was to choose whether to concentrate on building the network or the platform. How did you resolve that?

We are still working on it. It is a well-known complex problem for early-day network start-ups, with no easy solution.

Can you explain that?

Our value depends on our network. We lose value if participants are absent from our platform. We have spent a significant amount of our time and energy building the network. A trade house cannot use the platform to execute a trade if its counterparty is not on it. Successful networks are considered those that have at least 80 per cent of the market participants using the platform.

It will be challenging to get to 100 per cent. Some people will always want to continue doing things as they have done in the past, but we have successfully onboarded most of the trading companies in the markets where we are live.

You cannot build a network if you offer a limited scope of capabilities. You must start with a minimum viable product, get feedback, and then consistently, quickly, and incrementally improve the value proposition. It is what we call continuous delivery or continuous iterations. We must be careful not to spend time building something our clients don’t need or want. It is why continual feedback is essential.

Building the network goes hand in hand with building the capabilities.

At the same time, we must plan our product roadmap and backlog well. Each time we introduce new functionality, our clients want more. They say, “What you are doing is great, but I also want this and this – and I want it now!”

Can you give an example?

To increase the value for our clients and enable them to communicate and exchange information with companies that are not on the platform, we developed a capability that allows traders to communicate, send and receive data, documents, and instructions in a structured way to non-platform participants. It was complex to develop, but it added considerable value. We are consistently working to improve its functionality.

I saw on your website that the number of legal entities and teams active in the Covantis platform grew by 73 per cent in 2022 and now totals 130. Where are they mainly based?

In 2021, we launched our service in Brazil, focussing on the export market from Brazil. Most of those initial participants were in Brazil.

In 2022, we launched our services in the USA and Canada, onboarding exporters and charterers from those countries.

Now our network consists of entities from all over the world acting in different roles – Fob exporters, Fob/Fob traders, Charterers, and CFR Buyers. Covid has slowed our network expansion, but we are now also focussing on building capabilities for CFR (Cost and Freight) buyers, many of whom are in Asia.

Covantis executed 519 million mt on the platform in 2022, its second year of operation – an increase of 246 per cent versus 2021. What has driven this increase?

As I mentioned, when we first started, we were only active in the export of soybeans from Brazil. We now cover grain and oilseed exports from Brazil, US, and Canada. It has significantly increased our volumes. We will soon be launching Argentina, our fourth origin.

The 519 million mt figure includes the exported cargoes plus the FOB/FOB (Free on Board) inter-trade transactions before the cargo was loaded onto a vessel.

Your website says that your platform executed 74 per cent of Brazilian and 50 per cent of US bulk exports of grain and oilseeds in 2022. Those are significant percentages. How do you calculate them?

We look at how much each country exports and then calculate what percentage of those exports went through our platform. We call this an “adoption share.”

It is indeed a significant adoption number.

How do you define “executed”?

“Executed” refers to the contractual volume nominated to be shipped on a vessel. The ship’s charterer typically sends the nomination to the seller. In some situations, there may be multiple commodity forward purchases and sales where goods are bought for forward delivery and sold through a series of subsequent buyers. It is what we call “strings”. As the network of Covantis continuously expands, many of these contracts can be executed from start to end, i.e. from the first seller/shipper in the chain to the end buyer at the destination.

Why have you not included sugar or palm oil so far – and when will you add them?

We are working with the major players to launch bulk sugar exports from Brazil, hopefully in the second quarter of this year. Palm oil involves an entirely different network of participants which we hope to start covering in 2024-2025.

We aim to cover all bulk agricultural commodities within the next three years. Once we have succeeded, we will look at non-agricultural commodities, not necessarily in bulk.

What are your most significant identified risks? What keeps you awake at night?

The first is the risk of cyberattacks to which any tech company is exposed. We must be exigent and put a lot of effort into security. The first question anyone asks is, “How can I be sure that you will protect my data from other platform users and from outside the platform?”

The second is reliability. There are financial and legal implications if our system goes down if, for example, a Notice of Readiness goes missing. Our platform must be 100 per cent reliable.

Can Covantis add value in terms of traceability?

We can add value by making the document flow more transparent. It helps visibility regarding environmental and social sustainability certificates.

However, most end-buyers want to trace their agricultural inputs back to the farm while our system starts at the loading port. One possible solution might be to partner with someone who already covers the flow from farm to port.

Does Covantis have a role in finance and payments? Does its transparency facilitate commodity trade finance?

Absolutely, yes – and that role will grow!

Most of the international trade in agricultural commodities is conducted under UK law. In October last year, the UK officially introduced into parliament “The Electronic Trade Documents Bill”, which enshrines the idea that electronic trade documents such as bills of lading, warehouse receipts, and promissory notes are capable of being “possessed” and exchanged. Once passed, the bill will provide the legal basis to transition to a digital trade document environment and will likely provoke other jurisdictions to follow suit. We are considering allowing our clients to present electronic documents to the banks for payment and discharge the cargo.

How does Covantis generate revenue – and how do you measure the return on investment for your shareholders?

We charge all participants – including our shareholders – a fee for using our platform depending on their role, the volumes they transact and the value they can extract.

We have been modest in our pricing to encourage adoption. We want to make Covantis the industry standard, but that will take time.

The investment to date has been significant, and our revenues are not yet providing a return on that investment. Building the infrastructure and the network is a front-end load investment that will pay off over the next few years. We believe that our shareholders will see a good return on their investments in terms of money and cost reduction (from using the platform).

ADM, Bunge, Cargill, COFCO, Louis Dreyfus Company, and Viterra are founding members. Marubeni joined in 2022. Have other companies asked to become shareholders – and how would you react if they did?

We are not exclusive to having discussions with other interested investors, especially if there is a strategic fit.

I know that competition is ferocious between the big trading companies, but this is not the general belief among the public. How do you manage the optics of having seven trade houses “controlling” the food supply chain through Covantis?

“Controlling” is not the right word. We use “equal ownership” instead. Covantis is independent of its shareholders, with its own governance, organization and decision-making structure. Covantis is established on a type of governance known as a “shifting alliance model”, where no shareholder can veto strategic business decisions. Our mission is to build a fair and trusted platform.

Covantis was never intended for the exclusive benefit of the large commodity trading houses. It is for all the actors in the value chain, no matter their size or geographic location.

One of the main reasons why the competition and anti-trust authorities gave us approval was that no one has access to data other than their own. There is no sharing of information stored on Covantis, nor can Covantis JV be used as a forum for the prohibited information exchange between shareholders.

We do not favour – or privilege – shareholders above other users, including in our pricing approach.

That’s it, Petya! Thank you for your time and input!

© Commodity Conversations® 2023

Ag-Trader News

The War in Ukraine – one year on

A new report estimates Russia’s invasion cost Ukraine $11.5 billion in lost crop production in 2022:  sunflower at $3.032 billion; wheat at $2.513 billion; corn at $2.143 billion; and barley at $837 million.

Ukraine has asked Turkey and the UN to begin talks to extend the Black Sea grain deal, seeking an extension of at least one year. The agreement will expire on 18th March unless an extension is agreed. Russia said that it would be inappropriate to extend the deal unless sanctions affecting its agricultural exports are lifted, and other issues are resolved.

China has included maintaining the grain corridor as point nine in their recently published twelve-point peace plan.

In the meantime, Ukraine has proposed increasing the minimum tonnage of ships which export grain and vegetable oil from the country via the grain corridor and a new mechanism for queueing.

Grain exports from Ukraine have fallen recently, with ship inspections now half of what they were four months ago, with a backlog of 140 ships waiting for checking. Ukrainian and some US officials blame Russia for slowing down inspections, which Moscow has denied.

Ukraine has exported 21.1 mln mt of agricultural products under the agreement, including ten mln mt of corn and six mln mt of wheat. Click here for a full breakdown of the receiving countries and quantities exported.

An increase in the depth of a canal linking the River Danube with the Black Sea could improve logistics for Ukraine’s shallow water ports and improve flows out if the grain corridor agreement collapses.

Russia’s President has lauded the country’s farmers and announced a push to export 60 mln mt of grains by the end of 2023.

Other market news

Argentina’s worst drought in 60 years is disastrous for local communities, destroying crops, bankrupting farmers and reducing exports. Bloomberg writes that it is not related to climate change. Chile is also suffering, with the country’s far south experiencing its worst drought in 50 years, hitting cattle ranchers and vegetable farmers.

France is not doing much better, suffering its worst drought in 64 years. Authorities are preparing water restrictions, including on crop irrigation.

High prices are encouraging wheat-importing countries to purchase supplies for only about two to three months of their future demand versus typical buying of up to six months forward.

India will sell an additional three mln mt of wheat stocks to reduce domestic wheat and wheat flour prices. In addition, the government has said it does not plan to lift a ban on broken rice exports and cut a 20% tax on overseas shipments of white rice.

The trade war over GM corn between the US and Mexico continues with little sign of a settlement. The US has refused an offer from Mexico to allow GM corn imports for animal feed. Meanwhile, China’s farmers are starting to plant GM corn, but less than one per cent of total corn acreage.

Ivory Coast is restricting some multinational traders from additional bean purchases for exports as the country seeks to avoid a shortage. A cash shortage has left Nigeria’s cocoa farmers unable to hire workers and exporters unable to get the crop to ships.

Brazil has halted beef exports to China after confirming a case of mad cow disease. China is the leading destination for Brazilian beef, accounting for about 60 per cent of the nation’s exports.

Bloomberg writes that onions are the latest victim of what they have previously called a global food crisis.

The UK is going through a domestic food crisis with a shortage of fruit and vegetables, particularly salad and tomatoes. The supermarkets and the government blame bad weather in southern Europe and north Africa. Others blame Brexit as there is no shortage in the EU or Switzerland. A government minister suggested that the British should eat turnips instead.

The FT writes that “Nestlé sells fewer products after increasing prices.” (I think I could have guessed that).  The newspaper adds that Danone will increase their prices further this year after raising them by 8.7 per cent in 2022.

Bloomberg’s French coq-au-vin index shows a 14.7 per cent increase in January from a year earlier. The newsagency’s UK breakfast index has soared to a record high, jumping by more than 22 per cent from a year earlier in January.

Fertiliser and crop inputs

French health and safety authorities have ordered a halt to some uses of one of France’s most widely used weedkillers, S-metolachlor, used mainly on maize, sunflower, soy and beet crops.

Morocco’s OCP Group, the world’s largest phosphate fertilizer company, saw record earnings in 2022.

The New Scientist writes of the benefits to soil health of applying biochar, a charcoal-like solid rich in carbon, to the soil.

Bloomberg has a video on how the global fertilizer crisis threatens food security.

An Israeli company has found a way for plants to access nitrogen better, potentially reducing the need for fertilizer. Others are betting on peecycling. The FT tells us that “the urine passed by one adult in a day is enough to produce a loaf of bread”. (Yes, but what would it taste like?)

Other Innovation

Regular readers will have guessed that I am unconvinced about the potential for vertical farming, but I may have to change my ideas. A recent trial to grow wheat has shown that vertical farming can deliver five crop cycles per year, producing the equivalent of 273 acres of conventionally grown wheat in a 10-acre vertical farm.

Mercore, the global trade fintech group, has executed a trade finance transaction utilizing a digital bill of exchange for Abercore, a UK-based trader.

Earth.org believes that farmers face five challenges to feed the world: climate change, biodiversity loss, insufficient acreage, growing population, and low investment.

Capturing carbon on the farm could start to pay off as carbon prices rise.

The Conversation believes that adding sails to cargo vessels can significantly reduce carbon emissions.

Brazil’s Supreme Court has ordered Bayer to return to Brazilian soybean farmers the 1.3 billion reais ($252 million) in royalties charged for GMO soybean seed.

The FT writes that France’s ban on disposable plastic packaging has been more challenging than anticipated.

The Conversation believes that New Zealand’s plan to tax cow burps will do little to slow or stop global warming.

Finally, the prize for this week’s best headline goes to Euronews: “Baby kangaroo poo could be the secret to stopping cows’ methane farts.” How did they discover that?

© Commodity Conversations ® 2023

Many of the above links require subscriptions. Please support quality journalism.

A Conversation with Jeremy Reynolds – Trade Execution Specialist

Good afternoon, Jeremy. Could you tell me a little about yourself and your career so far?

I am from Richmond, North Yorkshire, in the UK. I studied business at Nottingham Trent University. When I finished my course, I stayed in Nottingham and answered an advertisement from a company I had never heard of: Cargill.

The job sounded interesting – we called it “forwarding” at that time. I had the interview, and I got the job. Thirty years later, here I am in Geneva.

I started in 1993 in grains and oilseeds – supply chain, plant logistics, off-farm collections, and raw materials planning for the UK crush plants. I also worked on the transportation, distribution, and supply chain management of NGFI (Non-Grain Feed Ingredients).

In 1997, Cargill asked me to come to Geneva for three months to work with the sugar team. The following year, the sugar department asked me to go to Moscow for a three-month assignment. I stayed there for nearly four years working on the supply chain, trade execution, warehousing, and distribution.

From Moscow, I moved to the Philippines for eighteen months to help build out the company’s sugar business. I then returned to Geneva to head up the global sugar operations.

In 2010, I took over responsibility for regional trade execution for Cargill International, which included grains and oilseeds, sugar, coal, metals, and energy, for five years. I then spent four years with Alvean, Cargill’s joint venture with Copersucar, before joining Tereos in 2019.

I am now setting up a new business around consultancy and managed services in trading and shipping.

Would you call yourself a forwarder, logistics manager, or trade execution specialist?

Now, that is a great question. We used to call it “forwarding” – dating back to the eighteenth century in the UK when innkeepers forwarded goods to the next inn. Most companies now call the role “trade execution coordinator”, but that is a bit long, so we tend to use the term “operator”.

It is a difficult job to categorise as it covers so much. Still, the role coordinates all the actors in the supply chain: buyers, sellers, freight suppliers, brokers, agents, document services, and supervision. It is an open system in which the trade execution coordinator manages and coordinates all those different parties to ensure that the right actions are taken at the right time to execute the contract.

The job differs from supply chain management, where you manage supply to meet expected demand. Supply chain management is not the same as contract management.

You have travelled extensively in your role as a trade execution coordinator. Is that usual?

I wouldn’t say so, but the big trade houses often view relocation as talent development opportunities. It can involve working on new projects or covering short-term assignments. These opportunities help an individual understand the activities from origination to destination.

The big trading houses have a pipeline to fill future leadership needs, and travel and overseas assignments are part of that process. My moves to Moscow, The Philippines and then Geneva were pivotal and allowed my career to progress much faster than if I had remained in the UK. I don’t think there’s anything stopping anyone from moving. You need to have the aptitude, and you need to ask.

There are also opportunities if you work for a smaller company, whether in Dubai or Singapore, or the US. However, you must move as an individual rather than relocate with your company.

You’re a Yorkshire boy who worked in the UK, Switzerland, Russia, and the Philippines. Did you find the cultural differences challenging?

Yes, but you must embrace those differences. When I moved to Moscow in 1998, few people spoke English. My Russian wasn’t good enough to hold business conversations, but I soon learned enough to get around and live in the city. And then you turn these obstacles into opportunities. It’s fun. There is something to learn from every culture.

The Philippines was challenging from a cultural and business aspect, but Switzerland was the hardest, possibly because I expected it to be more like the UK. But now my partner and our children are Swiss, so you adapt. You need to approach everything with an open mind and treat relocation as an opportunity.

Where does trade execution sit within a trading organisation?

There are three broad buckets of functions within a trading organisation.

The first is value creation, which is the role of traders. The second is value measurement – a financial and risk process. The third is value capture. Our role in trade execution is to capture the value traders believe they have realised on paper.

If the mark-to-market is $10 per mt, good contract execution can ensure that the company captures $10 per mt. We ensure that every party, including ourselves, meets the contract’s obligations. We can sometimes add incremental value through good execution. However, our primary role is to capture the existing value rather than add additional value.

Could you talk me through the various functions?

Before a trader makes a trade, we will discuss document requirements and payment instruments. We will also discuss any optionality contained within the contract, including origin, quantity, quality, packing, load, or destination port. We will discuss deadlines for when we must declare those options.

As a trade execution coordinator in a smaller organisation, you may need to book the freight and negotiate the charter party. In organisations of all sizes, you must understand the vessel’s location and when it will arrive. You must appoint surveyors to ensure that the ship is in the proper condition to load with the holds clean and the hatches watertight. You also must know what to do if they aren’t.

You must give the correct nominations to your suppliers at the right time so that they can get the goods in the required quality and quantity to meet the vessel.

If you are the vessel charterer, you must coordinate with local vessel agents and the port elevation operators, ensuring that everything is in place for the vessel to arrive and load and that all parties know their obligations.

Once the vessel is loaded, you must manage the documentation. Most people believe that commodity traders trade commodities. They don’t; they trade documents. Buyers pay against documents, usually without seeing the goods, so those documents must be accurate and in accordance with the contract. You must ensure that the documents are in order and you can get paid. It sounds simple, but it’s not!

There is an old rule that 80 per cent of trades go smoothly – and take 20 per cent of your time, while 20 per cent of your transactions require more attention and take 80 per cent of your time. The quality may be off; the vessel may be late; the vessel master may want to clause the Bill of Lading etc. – all great opportunities for learning the business!

You will then present the documents through the agreed channels and coordinate payment. After the buyer pays, you must finalise matters such as laytime, quality premiums and any open claims.

What happens when things don’t go well?

As a trade execution coordinator, you are part of a team that would typically include a trader, controller, legal and compliance. Together you work on a solution.

I always tell my teams that we seek a pragmatic, not perfect, solution to problems.

What do you mean by that?

Everybody wants to achieve the same goals. The seller wants to be paid, and the receiver wants to be happy with the goods they receive. We can spend days trying to find a perfect solution, but it may cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars in demurrage. Instead, we look for a pragmatic solution where parties say, “Well, that’s not ideal, but let’s mitigate the costs and get things moving.” No one wants to let a ten-thousand-dollar problem become a hundred-thousand-dollar problem.

What makes a good operator?

You must have a good knowledge of UK law in contracts and understand the function of a Bill of Lading or a Letter of Credit, for example. However, it is the application of that knowledge that is the real skill.

You take decisions contextually. Applying your knowledge to the business in different contexts makes you a great operator.

What do you mean by “contextually”?

How you approach a problem may depend, for example, on your contract price and whether it is lower or higher than the market.

It may also depend on whether the customer is strategic to your business or a “price buyer”. You may treat each differently. That ambiguity may sometimes be challenging to accept. You must be good at dealing with ambiguity. The pure ‘contractual’ approach or solution may lead to a short-term benefit but not be best for the business long term.

Remember, one of the critical roles of a trade execution specialist is to anticipate where issues might arise so that they don’t happen.

Could you give an example of that?

Suppose you sold a vessel for March arrival, and you realise it will arrive in April. The earlier you start working with your buyer, the better. You don’t wait until the vessel arrives at the discharge port before talking to your buyer.

The same applies to quality issues, particularly around the condition of the cargo. The vessel master may sometimes seek to clause a mate’s receipt or B/L (to note that the goods are damaged). The earlier all parties get together and resolve the issue, the better. It may make sense to pause the load and clean the cargo load belts or to offload the portion of the cargo that is in question. Again, it is a question of pragmatism, moving things along to protect your company’s interest and reduce its risk.

How important is trade execution to a trade?

A customer may not buy from you because of your company’s trade execution, but they will certainly not buy from you if your trade execution is terrible. There is a base level of expectations. If you exceed them, you won’t always get plaudits, but your customer will think twice about trading with you again if your execution is terrible.

What’s the most challenging thing about being a trade execution specialist?

The sheer quantity of information that comes across your desk can be challenging. I have seen organisations where people get 20,000 emails a month. You can’t control what people send you, but you can control what you choose to read. You must distinguish between what is and is not important and act accordingly.

It’s not abnormal in our industry to have 120 people on copy of an email about a vessel’s arrival date or a contract performance issue to be resolved. You can’t act with speed and agility when 120 people think they have a voice.

The best organisations will have procedures as to who is involved in what. The execution coordinator, the trader, the trading manager, and the controller may need to be part of a decision-making process – that’s four people, not 120!

It sounds as if there are inefficiencies in many companies’ systems.

I have been in managerial roles for the past few years and concentrated on organisational transformation – leveraging scale. When you look across an organisation, you see silos of operations which duplicate tasks three, four, five, and six times. There is a lot of productivity to be gained and value extracted.

If you improve productivity, you reduce costs and improve team engagement.

In 1999, Cargill bought Continental’s grain trading operations, and you were responsible for merging their trade execution operations in Russia. Were they very different?

The skillsets were the same, with highly skilled individuals in both teams, but the two groups worked differently and had different systems, processes, and procedures. It was the same when Cargill Sugar merged with Copersucar to form Alvean.

You have the organisational context, but you also have the cultural context when integrating two teams. The Cargill internal culture is strong and can often transcend national culture in some workplace contexts. From that perspective, Continental’s Moscow operations could be said to be culturally more ‘Russian’ than Cargill’s – and Copersucar’s operations more ‘Brazilian’ than Cargill’s.

Some conflict is inevitable in these situations as the change can impact individuals directly and bring additional stress. The challenge is making people feel comfortable and part of the team. It’s not a question of who is taking over whom but of getting the job done smoothly and efficiently.

Relationships will build if you create the right environment and culture. They don’t happen overnight. There’s often a feeling that if you put two teams together, they should be perfect from day one, but it takes time.

Traditionally, the front office is glamorous and highly paid with large bonuses, while the back office is less glamorous, less well-paid and with fewer bonuses. Is that an old-fashioned view, or is it still the case?

It is still the case, but although it pains me to say it, I think it is probably justified.

Physical commodity merchandisers drive a trading company’s profitability. They bring the clients to the table, negotiate the deals, and manage the price risk. They get paid more because they create more value. It’s as simple as that. If they create value, they get well rewarded. If they don’t, they get fired. It comes with the territory.

We’re not taking risk in the back office. We work with the traders to help them manage their risk.

Trading companies do recognise the value that good execution brings and reward trade execution operators well. They have traditionally viewed it as a differentiator in terms of their business.

However, I don’t know whether that will continue to be the case with the major trade houses joining a consortium to digitalise their operations and pool their trade execution knowledge.

You’ve managed several trade execution teams. What profiles would you look for when hiring somebody for one of your teams?

Good communication skills: People don’t need to be extroverts, but they need to be able to communicate what is required when it’s needed and be willing to share knowledge and information.

Determination and resilience: Things don’t always go your way. Executing a contract has its frustrations, and you need to be able to manage that.

Intelligence: The ability to absorb, process and apply information in different contexts.

Curiosity: You need to be curious to learn and ask questions.

Adaptability: The world is changing, and you can’t assume that something you knew yesterday will still apply tomorrow.

Proactivity: The ability and willingness to grab opportunities. Don’t sit back and wait for things to happen. An operator needs to know when to let things happen and when to make things happen.

What is one piece of advice you would give to someone starting as a trade execution specialist?

Others (involved in a transaction) will try and put their operational problems onto you, but you don’t have to take them on. Their problem is not your problem.

Now we’re going on to the elephant in the room – digitalisation. To what extent can trade execution be digitalised?

It depends on the context. FMCG – Fast Moving Consumer Goods – companies have successfully digitalised their supply chains. Also, look at Amazon or DHL – their digitalised logistics are superb.

Can you expect the same when you ship a cargo of soybeans from Brazil to China? Yes, you can create value in tracking and visibility, but documentation is more challenging.

The more vertically integrated you are, the more digitalisation can add value. Digitalisation can add significant value to the ABCD++ group of traders (ADM, Bunge, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, COFCO, Wilmar, Viterra, Olam).

However, the agricultural commodity trade has multiple actors along the supply chain, from the farmer to the distributor. Getting them all on the same platform and following the same processes is challenging. It applies particularly to containerisation.

Digitalisation is easier in origination and transport, but you must get the buyers on board. It may add more value on the sell side than the buy side.

I believe that trade finance will be the next catalyst to drive trade digitalisation. When trade financiers fully buy into digitalisation, everyone else must follow. But it will require a common platform. The banks now each run their proprietary systems. Trade execution will digitalise when the banks and non-bank financiers align on data standards, and inter-operability between different systems and platforms is more broadly achievable.

There is a tremendous amount of productivity to be gained, but it will be a long and expensive process.

Given digitalisation, would you recommend a young person to take up a career in trade execution?

Oh yeah! Even if digitalisation becomes a driver for shared services and takes 80 per cent of the work out of trade execution, most of that work is the routine, less-interesting stuff. It will leave the remaining 20 per cent – the challenging, exciting stuff. The industry is too complex to be digitalised entirely, but digitalisation will take the pain out of that 80 per cent.

Remember also that trade execution is not just about passing documents down a string. Traders will always need operators, not just for execution but also for advice.

If you’re pushing outside the boundaries the right way, people will help you. If you’re working for a smaller organisation, you may have to become a specialist in areas outside of pure trade execution.

If you like problem-solving, if you like logistics and if you want to work in a dynamic and international industry, then absolutely I would recommend a young person to take it up as a career. It’s a great place to be. I have loved my career so far – and I still love it!

Could you tell me what you are doing now?

I consult for various companies and am setting up a managed services operation – Crest Trade Services – for companies to outsource their trade execution operations in addition to consulting and training. It will be a similar model to how companies now outsource their IT or HR processes. We hope to launch in the second quarter of 2023.

Crest will primarily target SMEs –Small and Medium Enterprises – who don’t have access to the same resources and capabilities as the major trade houses. The goal is twofold. First, to provide clients with a level of expertise to which they currently don’t have access. Second, to reduce the cost of their operations through economies of scale and digitalisation.

In addition, by doing this, SMEs can mitigate their business-continuity risks. If a small company loses an operator, they are dead in the water – it must pass on opportunities or, worst case, can’t trade. Outsourcing removes that risk. Attracting and keeping talent is a challenge for smaller trading companies. There is a lot of demand out there for operators.

Thank you, Jeremy, for your time and input! I wish you every success with your new venture!

© Commodity Conversations ® 2023

This conversation is part of a series I call “Commodity Professions – The people behind the trade.”

Ag-Trader News

Markets

Goldman Sachs commodities unit made more than $3 billion in 2022, up from closer to $2 billion in the previous two years.

McKinsey has published a report on the future of commodity trading. The consultancy predicts shipping times will increase eight per cent, energy prices threefold, and interest costs sevenfold between 2020 and 2024. It expects working capital requirements for commodity trading to rise to $500 billion.

The FAO Food Price Index fell 0.8 per cent in January, the tenth consecutive monthly decline. With this latest decline, the index has fallen 17.9 per cent from its peak in March 2022.

However, global food supplies are still at risk, and shoppers worldwide will pay even more for groceries this year than in 2022. Nestlé, the world’s biggest food company, has already warned it will increase prices this year to offset higher production costs that it has yet to pass on to consumers.

Traders have accused Russia of purposefully slowing the pace of Ukrainian grain exports after January ship departures fell to their lowest since August. The deal expires in March, but Turkey, at least, expects it to be extended “for a longer period.”

Farmers in the EU’s eastern member countries are unhappy about the increase in Ukrainian grain imports, and Hungary has imposed strict quality and safety inspections on them.

In India, a lower-than-expected planting area may cap a previously expected rise in wheat production. The government may extend the export ban as a result.

Chinese pork prices have fallen by almost per cent since Beijing began relaxing Covid restrictions, raising a question mark over China’s import demand for crop proteins.

Company News

Bunge reported an adjusted net income of $336 million for the fourth quarter, or $2.21 per share, up from $231 million or $1.52 per share in the previous year’s quarter. The fourth-quarter profits exceeded estimates as crush margins, and global crop demand bolstered its core agribusiness.

In an interview, Cargill’s new CEO warned against weaponising the global food chain. The company’s Brazilian unit announced a $240 million time deposit to fund ESG projects in the country. Meanwhile, the company closed its grain elevator in Portage, Indiana, but has completed its acquisition of Owensboro Grain Company, a soybean processing facility and refinery in Owensboro, Ky.

Mondelez has set aside 300 million euros to resolve an EU antitrust investigation into whether it blocked cross-border sales of its products in the EU in breach of competition rules.

Impossible Foods will cut about 20 per cent of its staff. The company currently employs about 700 workers.

Shipping

Maersk reported Q4 profits (EBITDA) at $6.5 billion, bringing full-year 2022 profits to $36.84 billion. The company expects profits to fall to (what Bloomberg considers) more normal levels of between $8 billion and $11 billion in 2023.

Even so, Maersk believes that shipping lines must undergo a radical restructuring to survive, arguing that “The way that supply chains have operated over the last number of decades is no longer fit for purpose.”

The company added that container shipping volumes could fall by as much as 2.5 per cent this year. The company’s Asia-Pacific president said, “It wasn’t hard over the last twelve months to make money. If you had something that could float and could carry your container, that was not hard. Now, skills matter.”

The FT has an article on the limits to sail power on cargo vessels with sails reducing fuel consumption by only 8 per cent – not enough to justify the investment.

Methanol may be a better bet. CMA CGM has ordered a dozen methanol-fuelled containerships, increasing the number of such vessels in the French carrier’s order book to eighteen.

The environment

The EU has launched Cleverfood, an initiative it hopes will transform the bloc’s food systems.

Europe’s highest court has ruled that EU laws restricting the use of GM crops do not cover gene editing techniques that are used conventionally and have a long safety record. MIT believes that CRISPR could save crops from devastation by pests.

Going somewhat against the trend, French sugarbeet farmers drove their tractors into Paris to protest an EU ban on the neonicotinoid pesticide.

McKinsey argues that, contrary to what most of us thought, consumers will pay more for sustainable products. The 2023 Ethical Food Global Market Report agrees. It argues that the global ethical food market is growing at 8.9 per cent per year.

India increased its bet on biofuels (as opposed to EVs), rolling out petrol blended with 20 per cent ethanol in eleven states and union territories.

Neither Indonesia nor Malaysia is happy with EU legislation limiting imports of goods linked to deforestation, arguing that the measures will mostly hit small farmers unable to meet the burdensome cost of compliance. Vox writes that palm oil is not that bad (anymore). A view that the FT echoes.

CNN questions whether Arizona has enough water to grow all the pistachio trees that farmers have recently planted.

The New York Times reports that the Chinese are taking factory farming to the next level, with two 26-story buildings under construction on the banks of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, Spain has become Europe’s largest pork meat producer. The country’s farmers slaughtered 58 million pigs in 2021, up 40 per cent from a decade earlier.

The Guardian argues that we must embrace fake meat to save the planet, but Bloomberg is as negative on lab-grown meat as they are on plant-based meat. Others disagree, arguing that plant-based foods are a small but growing category. But if meat is not your thing, what about plant-based salmon?

The Guardian also has a piece on how California’s farmers are turning cow manure (but not cow burps) into biogas. At the same time, Time Magazine explains why agricultural methane emissions are a challenging area to tackle. The Washington Post has a long read on New Zealand’s methane-emission plans.

Salon lists the crops that climate change will ruin: coffee, corn, wheat, rice, almonds, and citrus. (We will be in trouble if they are right.)

Agriculture continues to attract venture capital inflows, with Responsibility announcing new sustainable food strategies in Asia and South America.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2023

Many of the above links require subscriptions. Please support quality journalism.

Shipping – A conversation with Jan Dieleman

Good morning, Jan, and welcome to Commodity Conversations. Could you please tell me a little about yourself and your role within Cargill?

I joined Cargill in the Netherlands as a trainee.  After three years in grain, I worked in shipping for eight years and then went into the energy markets for six years. I returned to shipping about six years ago. I’ve spent most of my career on the non-agricultural side of Cargill, which is quite unusual.

I am currently the president of Cargill’s Ocean Transportation business. We charter around seven hundred ships: 25 per cent for Cargill and 75 per cent for external customers, operating mainly in dry bulk and, to a lesser extent, in wet bulk. We are one of the top charterers in the dry bulk sector.

Our business doesn’t handle container shipments – another department within Cargill handles them. The container business is relatively fragmented, but there is some overlap with dry bulk.

How many people work in Cargill’s Ocean Transportation Department?

We have around 300 people: 100 in Geneva, 100 in Varna, Bulgaria, where we do our operations, and about 50 in Singapore. We have smaller offices in the US and Asia, and Amsterdam.

It must be challenging to manage seven hundred ships. To what extent do you use Artificial Intelligence?

We have developed AI-assisted analysis to predict where ships will go once loaded.  And we have some systematic trading where our models look at the data to produce a trade recommendation.

We use these tools on the operational side. We can see each ship’s daily fuel consumption and advise the master of the best speed to sail. There’s a lot to be done around the optimisation of this. There are still instances where we speed up a ship only to find it stuck in a port line-up.

Connecting some of these data points from the whole supply chain, not just the shipping side, will be critical in the next step.

Do you integrate the various physical commodities – and their supply and demand (S&D) – into your shipping models?

In shipping, you touch on all the commodities and their S&Ds. To succeed in the sector, you need to understand the underlying commodity flows and have a broad view of what crops are doing. For example, a delayed harvest will have an impact on shipping.

There is a lot of noise, and you must distil it all down to find the essence of what is driving the market.

When I started in commodities, shipping was an old-fashioned male-dominated sector with alcohol-fuelled lunches. How has that changed?

When I started, the business was, to some extent, as you describe it. When you walked into the room, everybody looked similar. Things have changed for the better. If you step on our trading floor here, you’ll see we have a diverse group of people in terms of gender, nationality, and skillset. It’s much more a reflection of what society is today.

There are three reasons for this change.

First, shipping has become more dynamic. In the early 2000s, when Cargill began growing its freight presence, many commodity markets were being deregulated, notably coal and iron ore. Previously, those markets traded on ten-year contracts. Then, in 2008-9, we had a massive spike in freight rates, spotlighting shipping as a significant input cost. It has attracted a lot of new talent to the industry.

Second, there has been a drive for more sustainable shipping, an essential topic for the younger generation. It has helped us attract bright and diverse people into the industry.

Third, there has been greater use of digital tools. In the old days, you had to use a particular broker because he was the only one who knew where ships were. It meant you had to have a good relationship with the broker. Now, you look at a screen and count the vessels yourself. It has made the industry more professional.

You started in grain, moved to energy and are now in shipping. Which do you prefer?

I like shipping because it touches on the underlying commodities and the energy landscape. Energy accounts for around 40 per cent of the cost of moving goods from A to B. I like the challenge of decarbonisation. Transiting to new fuels will have a massive impact on the sector.

Combining all these inputs and how they will play out drives me.

The United Nations predicts that global maritime trade tonnage will double by 2050. If true, it will make decarbonisation even more challenging.

There’s some uncertainty around the doubling, but it’s fair to say that as the population grows, trade volumes will increase.

We’re not going to achieve our GHG goals by doing things more efficiently. To achieve our goals, we must shift to zero-carbon fuels. We’ll run into a wall if we only work on fuel efficiency.

Recently, we have ended the ‘chicken and egg’ debate by ordering two methanol dual-fuelled bulk carrier vessels in collaboration with Mitsui & Co., Ltd. and TSUNEISHI GROUP. I believe shipping will need to move to zero-carbon fuels to meet its decarbonisation goals. Methanol offers one such pathway. It is the most technologically ready of the zero-carbon options, and we wanted to do something now to move the industry forward.

What about wind – cargo carriers with sails?

Wind power will not get us to zero carbon, but it is a step towards zero. Sails could reduce emissions by up to 20 to 30 per cent. They could also reduce fuel consumption by 20 to 30 per cent, giving us an immediate return on investment. Wind will make the hydrogen, ammonia, or methanol problem 20 to 30 per cent smaller.

We have been on the wind journey for some time. More than ten years ago, we experimented with kites. We learned that they didn’t work. Culturally, it was difficult for us to admit they didn’t work, but that’s okay because we learned from it.

On the waters today, you see ships with wind rotors – pillars that help power the vessel. We are looking at fixed-wing sails, something entirely new for our segment. They are huge, 40 meters sails made of carbon. The concept comes from professional yacht racing.

Do any bulk carriers currently have these carbon sails?

No, but we are going through the process of introducing the technology. There are several hoops we must jump through to get approval. You can imagine that the sails have an impact on visibility. There are always questions about stability and seaworthiness.

Currently, we are fitting wind sails to the Pyxis Ocean and should be able to start testing soon. There will be cargo onboard, so it will not be a sea trial but actual commercial use. We have done a lot of modelling, but we will see how it works when you have something on the water. We plan to scale it quite rapidly if we get confirmation that it works.

Energy-saving devices, biofuels, and supply chain optimisation are solutions that can be used today. We, as Cargill, are doubling down on all three of those.

I recently read Bill Gates’ book How to Avoid a Climate Disaster. He argued that we should first concentrate on the low-hanging fruit, such as electric vehicles, rather than the challenging areas of maritime freight and aviation.

I read the book and handed it out to our team in ocean transportation, as the book paints the picture very nicely.

Aviation, shipping, and steel were not part of the original Paris agreement on carbon reduction. I can see the logic that you shouldn’t prioritise those sectors, but they still represent a large part of emissions.

There is also the problem that all industries and sectors are trying to do the same thing – they all have the same deadline. Everybody wants to be zero by 2050. There will have to be some prioritisation because we’re all competing for the same solutions. Hydrogen, for example, pops up in a lot of industries. Bill Gates is correct in calling that out.

The maritime sector needs to contribute. We have a responsibility as an industry to get going and can’t just sit around and say we will look at the issue in 10-15 years.

There are two points I would like to make on this. First, there is the issue of who will pay for it. In this sense, aviation is probably better placed to absorb the cost than shipping. The second is that there are many industries within the maritime space. Cruise shipping differs from container shipping, which is different from bulk shipping. Which sectors are the biggest emitters, and which are closest to the end-user? It will be easier to pass on decarbonisation premiums in some parts of the supply chain.

The cost of decarbonisation in shipping will be huge, but in the container sector, it might mean only an extra half dollar on a pair of shoes. If you can pass the costs down to the end user, you can start scaling this and lower the cost of these new technologies. You can then roll them out to the broader industry.

There’s more to do between sectors, but we lack the mechanism. We tried to get one global carbon market in Glasgow but didn’t manage it.

What about the industry’s shift to low sulphur fuels – did that have an impact?

There is no debate; the shift has been beneficial from an environmental point of view. The move to low-sulphur fuels was a lot easier than people expected. There had been fears that half the fleet would get stuck, but if you announce things early enough, the industry finds a way of working around it.

Some people in the industry argue we should have gone straight to zero carbon, but it wasn’t feasible when the legislation was drawn up in 2016-17.

What are the other sustainability issues in shipping?

When people talk about sustainability in shipping, they only speak about decarbonisation. Sustainability is a much broader issue. It’s about human rights and labour conditions at sea. It’s about the recycling of ships. Look at the SDGs. They are a lot broader than just GHG emissions.

When researching this interview, I read that you once walked out of a conference panel because it consisted entirely of men.

We had been toying with this for a while and had decided that – to make a statement – we should represent ourselves in a diverse environment. You can’t say diversity is essential and keep doing things as you’ve always been. We had decided to only go on panels and accept speaking arrangements when there was a diverse group of people represented.

The conference you mentioned was in Norway. The organisers changed a little bit what they had promised. I decided to say that that was not what we agreed, and I didn’t show up on the panel. It was a small thing, but it’s gone a long way, and we have gotten a lot of credit for it.

Many event organisers now put gender parity as a minimum requirement. It is becoming an industry practice. It is great to see.

Are you seeing any move to gender diversity among crews?

The latest number I’ve seen is that females make up only 2-3 per cent of the workforce on ships. That’s far from gender parity, but it’s a complex issue. Ships’ facilities can be basic, and crews can be away from home for extended periods, which makes things more challenging.

Do modern ships need smaller crews?

No, a bulker needs about 20-25 crew. As we get more digital tools, that will probably reduce over time, but the work will also change.

It is a simple activity today but becomes a very different ball game once you start moving into ammonia and hydrogen fuels. We will need additional and higher skill sets than we have today.

When people think about shipping, they think of flags of convenience, tax avoidance, pollution, safety, and poor crew treatment. To what extent is that bad image justified – that’s the first question. And second, what is the sector doing to improve things?

You’re right that the sector has a track record of not being the most transparent and maybe not being the most proactive.  You have good and bad spots in any industry, but we must be careful not to paint a whole industry with one brush.

Things are changing rapidly, especially in transparency. When you get transparency, you gain clarity as to what needs improvement. An excellent example is taxation and beneficial ownership – who owns the ships. From a compliance point of view, we are in a completely different world than fifteen years ago.

Initiatives like Rightship have created transparency around safety. More needs to be done. Working at sea is dangerous, and we must make it safer.

Other initiatives around the sector’s environmental footprint have helped. The drive to decarbonisation combined with digitalisation sets us up for further change.

Could you briefly expand on some of the recent industry initiatives? What role do the three organisations, Rightship, the Sea Cargo Charter and the Global Maritime Forum, play?

Cargill has had an investment in Rightship for over fifteen years. The organisation began as a vetting agency, going aboard ships to evaluate safety standards. It has played a considerable role in raising safety standards.

Rightship has since evolved into a tech and data-driven company in the ESG space. Safety is still an important pillar, but the environment and crew welfare are also there. Its mission is zero harm. It looks to achieve that by creating transparency and raising standards. We are still heavily involved. We believe the right thing to do is increase overall industry standards – not just ours.

Recently, I was elected chair of the Global Maritime Forum, where the more progressive companies across the maritime space work together on various issues. We collaborate and set industry standards. We have a project we call the Getting to Zero Coalition. We bring people together to look at technology and the investments we need to reach our emission objectives.

The Sea Cargo Charter is another programme under the environmental umbrella of the Global Maritime Forum. It is an end-user initiative to have a standard way of assessing shipping’s carbon emissions. Previously, there was no common standard; everybody did it independently, and there was no benchmarking. We are a group now of 32 companies that uniformly measure emissions and compare them to the scientific targets for emissions reduction. It’s a transparent and standard way to evaluate how companies and the industry are doing compared to where we should be. We actively participate in the programme.

There are other significant initiatives as well. The Neptune Declaration was created to organise the industry around crew changes during the covid period. It was challenging to get crew on and off ships – and then get them home because there were hardly any flights.

Another initiative is starting soon around diversity and inclusion to leverage best practices from the industry.

What is the role of the International Maritime Organisation?

The IMO is a UN body that looks to regulate what happens on the high seas. It sets minimum safety standards, along with a host of other things. In the old days, the minimum standard was the standard, but most owners and charterers now go beyond that standard regarding the environment and labour conditions.

The IMO sets the baseline for global shipping. It is important because shipping is a worldwide business. The IMO involves many stakeholders and countries, making it challenging to move at the speed with which the industry is changing.

Does that mean that the private sector is driving change within the industry?

Although it may not be valid across the entire industry, I agree that the private sector is taking the lead. For example, many countries and companies have declared 2050 net-zero carbon goals, way beyond the IMO goal of cutting carbon emissions by 50 per cent by 2050. A large part of the industry is willing to go faster than the IMO.

Finally, what advice would you give to somebody who’s starting in shipping or thinking about going into shipping?

Shipping is under-recognised and under-appreciated. People often think of shipping as a service or logistics operation, but it’s much more than that. It is a market – and a volatile one. The Capesize market is possibly the second most volatile market after Natgas. There is much more going on in freight than people realise.

If you’re interested in the decarbonisation drive, there’s a lot you can do in shipping, even though the sector is viewed as hard to change. There are a lot of opportunities. Our recent hires are excited about the green side of shipping and the contribution they can make.

For people already in freight or just starting, I would say, “Be curious. Don’t zoom in too quickly on one market or one commodity. Keep your eyes open, see how the interactions work and identify the risks and the opportunities.”

I would also say, “Don’t pursue a career where you don’t have a passion.  You can be okay, but you will never excel. Go where your passion is and be curious.”

Thank you, Jan, for your time and input.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2023