ECRUU Sugar Week

Good morning, Charlotte. Please tell us about ECRUU Sugar Week and your motivations for holding the event.

At ECRUU, we specialise in media monitoring for sugar and ethanol market participants. It’s a pretty niche business, and we’ve been struggling to find an efficient way to get people in these markets to know about our services. Over the years, we’ve been chatting with fellow market information providers, many of whom told us that they’ve been experiencing similar challenges. At the same time, our clients often ask us to recommend companies that provide market analysis.

It became pretty evident that, on the one hand, we had all these companies that provided helpful market information. On the other hand, we had the market participants who needed these services, but there was no efficient way for them to find each other.

That’s how ECRUU Sugar Week was born. We partnered with the market’s best and most prominent information providers to create a free online event where information providers showcase their expertise and participants can easily contact them.

Our objective is to help market information providers – such as ourselves – reach out to the people who need our services and vice versa, for the people who need our services to find us. Ultimately, the aim is to create an efficient and transparent way for market participants to be aware of all the services that can help them stay on top of the sugar market.

Our target audience is anyone involved in the sugar and ethanol markets, whether from near or far. Whether you want to get high-quality market insight or learn more about a particular market information provider – or both – the event is for you.

Why should people sign up?

I have four excellent reasons for people to sign up. First, it’s a unique opportunity to get high-quality content from experts who don’t usually give out free content. Second, it’s entirely online; you can attend from anywhere worldwide. Third, it’s completely free. And four, did I mention it’s free?

We are fortunate to have an excellent lineup with 18 speakers who will present over a week on both the sugar and ethanol markets. We have speakers from the International Sugar Organisation (ISO), Datagro, Green Pool, and Covrig Analytics who will give a global overview. S&P Global Commodity Insights will talk about NAFTA, and we have experts from India, Pakistan, Africa, the CIS and the EU. Marcus Weather will discuss what to look out for weather-wise, and Czarnikow will present on new fuels.

I could go on; you can see the full program is here:

You are based in India. What is happening there in the sugar world?

The sugar market is currently focusing on India. The monsoon has been excellent so far, and we’re looking at a big cane crop in 2024/25 and a probably bigger one in 2025/26. The industry is pushing hard for exports; this could be a game changer for the global S&D, which is otherwise looking balanced. However, the government’s primary focus is the ethanol program, and it wants to ensure sufficient feedstock. India is a tricky one, so we have two experts who will be discussing the subject at our event.

How do you think AI will affect your business and market analytics?

We are keeping a very close eye on AI developments. We’ve identified two main movements. On the one hand, AI has tremendous potential for scraping news and automatically summarising content, which would significantly impact our business. On the other hand, countries are legislating to protect intellectual property rights, making using AI tricky, especially for a company that commercialises its content. So, we aren’t seeing any significant changes at the moment. But as an AI expert once told me, AI won’t steal your job, but the guy using AI will!

There is a lot of talk about AI, but at the end of the day, commodities are a people business. Decades ago, people were convinced that the Internet would kill the brokers’ role, but this hasn’t happened. We’re big proponents of creating relationships among people in the sugar and ethanol markets because we know people want to do business with people, not companies.

That’s why we have a podcast. We invite people who provide information on the sugar market to share who they are, what they do and their journeys so far. Almost no one grew up wanting to work in commodities, yet most of us love what we do. It’s interesting to get to know the people behind the trade. You just wrote a whole book just about that!

You can listen to the podcast here.

You can get your free ticket to ECRUU Sugar Week here.

We also offer a Premium Ticket with added perks. I’d like to extend a special discount to your readers who can use the coupon code COMCONV. You can buy your ticket here.

© Commodity Conversations® 2024

A Conversation with Ishan Bhanu – Grains and Oilseed Analyst at Kpler.

Please tell me a little bit about your career and Kpler.

After completing my education in India, I moved to Singapore in 2011 to join Olam; it was my first job.

I moved to Dubai in 2017, where I ran my research firm, working with grain trading desks worldwide. I joined Kpler in Dubai at the end of 2023, looking after agricultural commodities. One of my responsibilities is to add a layer of opinion-based research to      Kpler’s suite of data products. I work closely with Kpler teams to enhance our coverage across agriculture, grains & oilseeds, veg oils and biofuels.

Kpler was founded in Belgium in 2014. The two co-founders, François Cazor and Jean Maynier, who still control the company today, initially identified a gap in the LNG market.

From there, they expanded to oil and tankers and later dry bulks. In 2023, Kpler acquired the leading ship tracking and maritime analytics providers, MarineTraffic and FleetMon, becoming the number one in vessel tracking with more than 1 billion AIS pings daily.

Kpler is the go-to source for global trade intelligence and the best cargo-tracking platform on the market. Kpler can use its data to aggregate shipments and do all sorts of analyses, including weekly, daily, and monthly volumes between countries by commodities, diversions, commodities on water, ton-miles changes and so on.

Knowing the quantities of the commodities on the water right now gives us significant insights into the market. We call it Kpler Insight. We add to the data product by providing expert analysis and opinion, including news, research reports, price analysis and ad hoc research.

As an analyst, I found that we could track the vessels, but finding out what was on board the ship wasn’t always possible. It was easy from the main ports but challenging for the smaller ones and coastal traffic. How do you get around that problem?

It is challenging in dry bulk, but we can track all vessels over 5,000 t. We use over 250 hard sources, including line-ups, port reports, arrivals and fixtures.

Our process uses rigorous checks for data quality. We have a robust data quality team whose job is to ensure we get the cargo and quantity right. Rigorous back-testing proves our high accuracy in tracking maritime cargo.

Kpler has perfected this process in gas and oil, and we are now applying it to dry shipments. The team has significantly scaled our coverage across ags, major and minor bulks, and commodities such as steel and fertiliser.

It comes with challenges. Recently, we have seen many vessels reporting incorrect AIS positions. Some people don’t want the world to know what they’re up to, particularly in the Black Sea.

They’re turning off their tracking, aren’t they?

For a long time, many vessels showed their position at Moscow’s airport. Now, they’re showing it in more believable places, but a third of all Russian coal exports are loaded with the transponder switched off.

It is similar for wheat and barley in the Black Sea ports and corn out of Caspian ports going to Iran, especially on the southern side, closer to Iran.

Kpler’s risk & compliance product evaluates coverage, projects vessel positions during the AIS gap and qualitatively identifies AIS coverage as low-risk or high-risk.

While AIS is the primary source, we also use other sources to bring depth and colour to our data.

How do you add value to the data Kpler provides you?

I’m an agricultural commodities analyst. My job is to help clients understand and trade agricultural markets. Everything we build and develop is towards this end.

Most companies analyse markets from the supply side, and the big companies spend millions on crop forecasting. We bring something different to the market by focusing on demand and trade.

There are numerous importing countries, and getting accurate and reliable import data is challenging. Kpler’s cargo tracking data gives us an understanding of destination markets. We use it to do bottom-up country-level demand analysis and predict monthly trade flows forward. A good grasp of future flows helps us build quality balance sheets that can be reliably used to trade.

Do you use artificial intelligence?

We have several applications in which AI is bringing efficiency to processes, like automatically assessing anomalies in our data. We have applications of machine learning for processing earth observation data for oil inventories, pattern detection for commodity trading, and forecasting future trades.

Do you make price predictions?

We discuss price direction and share our views on prices. We maintain a view. You can’t have a predictive trade analysis without a view of prices.

Which market do you find the most challenging? 

Russia is the largest wheat exporter but has no established forward market. The global wheat market has become a spot market with little ability to buy down the curve. It has made the market short-term. As a result, you cannot trade an annual balance, only next month’s supply.

Supply is plentiful for this month and the next because the northern hemisphere has just harvested, and Russian and Ukrainian farmers are keen to sell. They have no incentive to carry as they have no certainty over future prices.

This phenomenon has also led to people not investing in storage, making the physical cost of carrying relatively high.

If Egypt and Algeria come in and buy, which happened a couple of weeks ago, the market will rally because they just bought ten days’ worth of production. Once those ten days pass, the exporters start discounting again to get sales. There is no long-term strategic thinking.

Can traders use the Matif to hedge forward?

It is far from a perfect hedge for Russian wheat because of convergence, delivery and quality differences.

What is happening in soybeans, and how will the US election impact the market? 

The US elections and US / China trade relations are the number one factors in the market today. Renewable biodiesel would be second, but that is more for the long term.

The US crushing sector has been running at maximum capacity for several years. It is the bottleneck. They are increasing that capacity, but as far as the soybean balance sheet goes, we assume it will continue to run at maximum capacity. That way, we may not worry about the downstream renewable side, at least for the soybean balance sheet.

China is the elephant in the soybean market. Secrecy has increased, and the market has gone from somewhat transparent to completely opaque, making it harder to predict what China will do.

Using Kpler data, we realised that China will import a record quantity of soybeans in July. Monthly arrivals will be over 11 million tonnes—about 10 per cent from Argentina and the rest from Brazil. This is not because of better margins or a sudden increase in demand. It looks like China is concerned about possible trade issues.

China traditionally imports US beans in October, November, and December and then reverts to Brazilian origin by the end of January.

I believe China wants to avoid being dependent on US beans. Imports from the US will not fall to zero, but China prefers Brazilian origin to US origin. Brazilian beans will go to China, and US beans will have to fight it out to other destinations.

The US is currently growing a considerable crop of soybeans. They are in the ground, and there are no red flags regarding production. We expect the US to have relatively high stocks in 2025 and very high stocks in 2026. This will collapse the structure of the soybean market and increase carries.

Argentina is a factor in soybeans. The country’s farmers are sitting on over 10 million tonnes of stock because it’s a currency for them. It is a dollar-denominated commodity.

Could Argentina change its policy of favouring meal over soybean exports?

The President, Javier Milei, is a libertarian and, ideally, would want to remove all the taxes and export duties, but he just can’t afford to do it. Even if he does, the differential export taxes will remain. The crushing industry is significant and politically influential. It is also a major source of employment and government income.

I’d like to return to something you mentioned about the difficulty of getting reliable information.

A lot of Chinese data around domestic crops and stocks is kept private in view of their food security challenges. This information can be quite valuable to traders. Recently we have started seeing mismatches in customs data as well, which further increases the difficulty of understanding and trading Chinese demand.

I fear that the same thing is starting to happen in Russia. The government tries to maintain an informal price floor on wheat exports and penalises companies that fail to play along. Foreign companies have left, and there has been a consolidation at the export level. So far, there hasn’t been much attempt to control the information flow, but I’m afraid it could be the next step.

After the breakup of the USSR, governments largely left the agricultural commodity trade, but by what you say, they are getting back in.

They are getting involved in the markets in the name of food security. China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and, to some extent, Bangladesh all try to control agricultural markets. Meanwhile, the Egyptian and Saudi governments are the world’s largest grain buyers. Algeria is a big importer; again, it is the government.

Out of the commodities you cover, which one do you prefer?

Although wheat is the most challenging, it is the one I prefer. It has a variety of end-user applications but doesn’t generally go to animal feed or industrial use. It ends up on people’s tables. When I look at pasta, bread, or biscuits, I try to guess the quality and origin of the wheat. It brings tangible meaning to what I do.

© Commodity Conversations® 2024

My new book, Commodity Professionals – The People Behind the Trade, is now available on Amazon.

 

A Conversation with Mike Halbach

Mike works with Sybius, a boutique consultancy firm offering compliance services to the commodity trading and financial sector. Before joining Sybius, Mike worked for 16 years with Cargill, most recently as compliance director for derivatives and commodities.

“My job at Cargill was in the trading compliance areas,” he told me. “I specialised in the intersection between trading in physical commodities and trading in financial instruments on regulated markets.

“The intersection usually occurs when pricing the physical transaction. If you sell wheat and your customer prices it against the Chicago futures, are you acting as a futures broker or providing investment advice?

“No, neither of the two. A commodity trader like Cargill is not a financial institution but must comply with regulations when trading on regulated markets. My role was to ensure that we had internal policies and procedures to comply with these regulations. It included ensuring traders and others do not give the impression of acting as futures broker or providing investment advice.”

Mike told me that he faced three main challenges in that role. The first was that he needed to understand the business. He had people in his group who were fantastic professionals from the world of finance, but they were new to the world of physical commodities. They had to quickly learn how it worked.

His second challenge was translating compliance in a way traders could understand.

His third challenge was the speed at which the regulatory landscape changed. He had been with Cargill for one year when Lehman Brothers collapsed. It was the kick-off for long-term change in the world of finance.

“It is an evolving space,” he told me. “More regulation will come If we as an industry do not operate properly. There are ongoing discussions about how commodity firms should be regulated, particularly in Europe, the US, and elsewhere.

“Are there specific measures legislators are looking to introduce?” I asked.

“Regulation will come into our sector through the financial markets,” he replied. “One suggestion is to introduce capital requirements. If you want to take risks in the market, you need to have the necessary capital resources.

“The US, EU and other jurisdictions already restrict risk-taking by limiting the size of traders’ positions on a futures exchange. The exchanges already impose financing requirements through initial and variation margins.

“Europe is also approaching the question through the lens of market abuse and conduct, looking at how traders hedge their physical transactions. A trading book will have a portfolio of positions without a one-to-one relationship between them. From a regulatory perspective, it has the potential to be vulnerable to abuse.

“Don’t expect compliance to go away,” Mike warned. “The more you embrace it, the easier it will be to deal with.”

“Do you think physical brokers will ever be regulated?” I asked. I had often asked myself this question during my years as a physical broker.

“I believe they could be,” Mike replied. “The regulators are looking at physical brokers in standardised contracts such as sunflower oil in Europe or the Mississippi barge market in the US. They could ask whether they are physical cargoes or standardised financial instruments.”

I have often argued that the agricultural business is largely privatised and has less room for corruption than in the oil and mining industries, where governments grant licences and permits. I asked Mike if he agreed.

“The US and Europe have already imposed massive fines for bribery and corruption,” Mike countered, “albeit in the oil sector and for events many years ago.

“But think about cocoa,” Mike continued. “You’re buying from government entities in both Ghana and Ivory Coast. If you sell soybeans to China, your buyers may be state-owned companies. Countries like Iran, Nigeria, and Algeria also buy through state companies. The magnitude is less than oil’s, but you are still vulnerable in agriculture.”

“Does compliance cover reputation as well?” I asked. “Would that come under your remit?”

“Everybody in a company is responsible for its reputation. A single trader can destroy a hundreds-of-year-old company in a second. As such, senior management, divisional managers, all employees, and even beyond, like contractors—rather than just compliance officers—need to look out for reputational risk. ”

“But what about legal compliance?” I asked. “There seems to be a fuzzy frontier between compliance and legal.”

“Compliance starts where legal compliance ends,” Mike answered. “Legal compliance clearly defines what a company can and can’t do. However, there are grey areas in the legal world, and that’s where compliance starts. Compliance, for me, means managing the grey. We need to figure out the middle. It’s where the problems start and where risk assessment kicks in. It defines how much risk a company may be willing to take.”

“There’s so much legislation, and it’s changing all the time,” I said. “Cargill operates in so many countries; how do they keep up with it all?”

“Large commodity traders clearly define multiple compliance areas such as sanctions, competition, anti-bribery, food safety, etc,” he replied. “You must organise and structure it. And you have priorities within each function. It’s a volume problem and a prioritisation problem.

“You must also do a risk assessment depending on your area of compliance. If it is competition law, you must look in every country where you operate. If it’s futures trading, you look at the countries where you trade the futures and where the futures exchanges are located. You have plenty of people following the rules. However, digesting that information can be a challenge.”

“Doesn’t that make it harder for you, Mike, now that you are in a smaller organisation?” I asked. “How do you track all that information and ensure you’re up to speed?”

“It is a good question,” he replied. “I agree I don’t have the resources I had at Cargill, but information today is much more available than it was twenty years ago. We are linked to a lot of trading organisations and have a network of people with whom we share information

“I’m not advising the Cargills of this world. Smaller organisations have different risk profiles. When you have a specific client, you go through the list of things they’re exposed to and focus on those. It reduces your workload. Besides, I advise more on compliance strategies and structures – how you can practically deal with your risks – than on day-to-day activities.

“There is another element here. You get into a routine working for one company and can become a victim of groupthink, attached to a particular way of seeing and doing things. As a consultant, I am exposed to a variety of views. I am no longer factually and emotionally attached to one pre-determinate view. I believe it is called ‘non-attachment’ in advanced organisational thinking.”

“Where does compliance end and risk management start?” I asked. “Is compliance a subcategory of risk management?”

“Too many people in the commodity world misunderstand risk management,” he replied. “They too often think risk management is market risk management, but there are many other risk areas you need to consider. Risk management is mitigating the risks in your business activity, irrespective of where they’re coming from.

“You have market, compliance, counterparty, funding, and financing risks. People in accounting have to manage risk. There is a whole range of risks in trade execution. You have cyber security and IT risks. You have fraud and payment risks. The people responsible for managing these risks are not necessarily in compliance, but compliance provides a framework and interacts at every level of risk management.

I saw on his LinkedIn profile that Mike had experience in forensic accounting.

“Forensic activities, not forensic accounting,” he corrected me. “Forensic activities are part of the compliance role. I’m not examining a crime and how a person died, but there is a comparison. We try to understand what happened and see if it is still happening. We try to find patterns. It is an intense role, but it is a crucial part of compliance to prevent further damage to the company.

“It may also lead to an improvement in trading activities. Suppose you are not contravening any market regulations but still move the market when you hedge a physical transaction. In that case, our forensic activity can highlight possible ways to improve your hedge execution. It is the advantage of business-oriented compliance.”

“Is this something that artificial intelligence could help with?” I asked. “It seems an obvious candidate for artificial intelligence.”

“Absolutely,” he replied. “It’s an example of where artificial intelligence can help. Regulators already use or at least consider the use of AI extensively.

“The only issue is that AI doesn’t tell you what it did, how it did it, or if it did everything. It can be challenging from a regulatory perspective.

“One downside is that AI can send out too many false positives. As a compliance officer, you must confirm and document that every false positive is false.”

“What are the best and the worst things about being a compliance officer?” I asked

“The best thing is I can look into everything and learn about the business. Today, risk management is natural for me, for example, but I discovered it through the compliance journey.

“The worst thing is that traders often view you as a ‘no-sayer’. I have had to learn not to say ‘no’ too quickly, and I am still learning. Looking back, I have often said ‘no’ too quickly. Traders are not doing things wrong intentionally – some do, but the vast majority don’t.

“Even so, it takes courage and resilience to say ‘no’ when everyone wants you to say ‘yes’.”

“Are you a policeman or a detective?” I asked.

“I am neither,” Mike replied. “People often think of us as the police, but if we do our role correctly, we are more of a business enabler. We ensure the business can continue to operate and has the license to operate. In one sense, we are policemen who protect that licence to operate. In another sense, we set up the processes that facilitate business. We are an enabler.

“I like to think of myself as more of a harbour pilot,” he continued. “If I were a policeman, I would keep the vessel miles from the coast. A pilot’s role is to navigate the ship through the rocks and keep the business safe. If you need to slow down, you slow down but speed up when you can.

“People in the trading world should see their compliance people as partners, not policemen. They’re there to help you, keep the business functioning, and keep you out of jail.”

© Commodity Conversations® 2024

Commodity Professionals – The People Behind the Trade is available on Amazon.

Five questions for Gijs Vos

You’ve had an extensive career in commodity finance. Could you talk me through it?

After graduating from university in 1997, I enrolled in ABN AMRO’s Management Training program and, after three or four years, joined their commodity finance division. I have always found commodities fascinating. Commodities have a tangible element that banking per se doesn’t have.

I started with inventory finance in the early 2000s with commodity repos. It was a small group initially. We did the simple stuff on LME metals, but then we dabbled around a bit in coffee, orange juice, and cocoa. It was a learning process, but it quickly grew.

The commodity world is incredible. It’s the people, the business, and the mindset. But for me, it was about understanding how commodities are traded. You must be curious and willing to go down a rabbit hole or two—to keep digging and trying to figure things out. There’s always something to learn, and it’s always intriguing. There’s never a dull moment.

I moved to AMN AMRO London in 2005, working more on the futures and derivatives. ABN AMRO sold the business to UBS in 2006, and I left after six months to join Standard Chartered Bank in New York. I worked in New York for nearly eighteen years with Standard Chartered and Rabobank before returning to ABN AMRO.

I met my wife in New York. She’s a coffee trader. She recently took a senior position with Starbucks in Lausanne, which is why we moved to Switzerland.

When I interviewed Karel Valken from Rabobank for my book The New Merchants of Grain, he said that Rabobank only finances the ABCD+ traders as the due diligence workload is not worth the time for smaller companies. Is it still the case?

When I started at Rabobank, for example, you had to have a minimum equity of $10 million to be a wholesale commodity finance client. That’s probably increased to over $100 million, with annual revenues of a billion. Capital is getting more expensive, so banks are looking for better returns. You put the same amount of due diligence and credit work into a $10 million or a billion-dollar deal.

Here in Switzerland, the smaller cantonal banks service the smaller and medium-sized clients, but their financing comes at a price. They’re more expensive. This lack of liquidity puts the smaller and medium-sized traders at a funding disadvantage.

Banks finance the smaller commodity traders contract by contract (transactional finance), which is operationally intensive. The ABCD+s are essentially corporate borrowers with revolving credit facilities. You lend against the balance sheet and the profitability.

Banks come in and of commodity trade finance. Do they misread the risk and then blow up? Is fraud a factor?

There have been numerous exits in the past few years. Most notable would have been BNP and ABN AMRO. Banks have become less keen on commodity trade finance in recent years. It is primarily driven by lower returns, higher capital requirements (partly caused by fraud losses), and increased regulation such as Basel, Dodd-Frank Act or MiFID. The combination of these factors makes commodity trade finance less attractive to employ capital compared to other sectors.

Numerous frauds have occurred in commodity trade finance recently. Some made the news, and others disappeared. Fraud undermines the banking sector’s confidence in commodity trading and changes its risk management culture. People prefer to put their money in an industry like FMCG, where they get paid good margins with little trouble.

I don’t think anybody starts a trading company and says, I’m going to defraud a bank. More often, something goes wrong, and rather than confessing to it and breaching their covenants, companies might say, ‘We’ll lie about it and hope we trade out of it.’

Even if it starts innocently, the fallouts are severe. The knock-on effects include additional scrutiny, more audits, and less access to credit insurance. Everything becomes more expensive and more complex. The whole process takes longer.

What advice would you give a young banker to watch out for fraud?

Be aware of herd mentality. Don’t go along with something just because the other banks do.

Don’t always rely on the financial reporting.

It’s part risk management and part plain old greed. You need to meet a budget, and this client pays more. Nobody wants to walk away from a client who pays a good margin. Still, the moment the music stops, everything falls apart.

One red flag would be if a client fully utilises their credit lines. The rule is, “If it’s too good to be true, then it’s not true. If your client is willing to pay double or triple the margin than other comparable clients do, then that’s not right.

Meet your clients at their offices or industrial premises. It’s a red flag if you always meet clients in a restaurant.

I once had a processor client, and we were financing stocks in a warehouse. I went to visit the warehouse for a due diligence check. The place was a mess. The floors were dirty, and the pallets were badly stacked and falling over. The office was filthy, covered in dust.

I thought, what’s the administration like if that is how they deal with their physical commodities? A year later, multiple containers went missing. We should have pulled our financing, but we didn’t. I learned to look at the surroundings when I do due diligence. Are the buildings maintained? Is everything as you would want it to be?

Is reputation risk a factor for the banks?

Reputational risk is a factor for sure. In my opinion, there are two elements to reputational risk. The first is the incidental reputational risk caused by, for example, consumer sentiment or social issues. It could be related to financing oil production, intensive farming, environmental damage like deforestation, or social issues like child or slave labour, etc. As a result, the bank could be subject to environmentalists’ protests and boycotts.  It is a moral corporate citizen question that not only applies to commodity banking. And it also changes. Palm oil is a good example. It used to be a wonder crop and the renewable biofuel of the future. It was the best thing ever, but now it’s frowned upon because of deforestation.

The second element is more severe and related to breaches of regulations such as KYC compliance, money laundering, etc., resulting in significant fines and penalties. The reputational fallout can be enormous. It’s not always quantifiable beyond the fines and penalties. Are you going to lose clients over this? How much revenue is associated with the loss of these clients?

In any case, you’d rather not be in the news. There is a saying that there’s no such thing as bad publicity, but I don’t think that is true for banks. You want to avoid those headlines.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2024

Commodity Professionals – The People Behind the Trade is available on Amazon.

Five Questions for Paul Chapman

Please tell me about yourself and HC Group.

I joined HC Group after university and will celebrate my 20th year with the company this month. I started as a desk researcher on the European gas and power markets. In 2007, three years later, I put my hand up and said, ‘Hey, I think I’d like to go to the US. A booming energy market is out there, and we aren’t doing any of it. Give me a shot.’

Our then-founder and CEO, Justin Pearson, agreed and gave me a choice between New York and Houston. I chose Houston and have been here ever since.

We started focusing on agriculture in 2010, with ADM as one of our anchor clients. During that period, the main ag houses were diversifying into other areas of the value chain, so much of our work was outside of trading in areas such as animal and human nutrition.

The years between 2012 and 2018 were challenging for us and the sector. In 2018, Justin Pearson was keen to move on. My colleague Damian Stewart and I bought the business from him, and now we’re co-owners. The firm was then down to about 24 people. With luck and judgment – luck being the markets coming back and judgment being that we made some significant changes to get the business back on its feet – we’re now 85 people in six offices.

At HC Global, we do everything a top-tier standard search firm would do, but we just focus on the commodities sector. That focus gives competitive advantages over other, more generic search firms. We understand the roles better and better at assessing candidates’ skillsets and fit. We have an established network and brand within the market, so we are typically already connected within the candidate community, and they trust us. It also means we can be true advisors to our clients.

Where are the current hotspots?

Digitization, de-globalization, and the energy transition are the current hotspots. If you take those three and look at any given commodity vertical, the hottest demand is the intersection point.

The intersection in ags occurs around biofuels. An energy company may need ags experience for their feedstocks, while an ags company may want energy experience for marketing.

With de-globalization, the world has become more complex, riskier, costlier, and less certain. You need professionals in your organization to manage that.

Then, there is digitization with a drive to lower costs and facilitate decision-making. Of the three verticals, energy, ags, and metals, ags is probably five or six years behind the other markets in digitalization.

Another hotspot is hedge fund demand for ag traders. There are relatively few ag traders, particularly those who can trade from a blank paper.

Skill sets are the easy bit. The hardest is the cultural and behavioural fit. You have only a few companies in the ag world, and they are culturally independent. Cargill is different from ADM, and Dreyfus is distinct from both. The challenge is to find people who fit in your organization and your organization’s goals.

That’s particularly true in trading, where you might have people with the same skill set, such as a wheat or oilseeds trader. Depending on what company they’re in, they’re trading for vastly different goals. One might be filling a system, and you don’t want them taking risks. In a hedge fund, it’s an entirely different scenario. That’s why the cultural and behavioural fit are critical. Getting that piece right is challenging, particularly in a market short of talent.

Now, let’s go to the podcasts. How do you find participants for them?

Most of our guests come from recommendations from our network. Overlaid onto that is an odyssey of personal interest. What do I find exciting? What are the current themes that need addressing?

It is sometimes challenging to find individuals who are not overly controlled by communications departments. We look for guests who can provide a balanced, in-depth view rather than just advertise talking points.

People are sometimes reluctant to participate for fear of revealing strategies and information. There’s a historical culture in that you don’t want exposure, you don’t want to be in the media, and you don’t want to talk openly about anything for fear of giving your competitors insights and information. There’s a feeling there’s a downside to discussing how much money you’re making. You face political and cultural headwinds in the commodity trade.

I try to find a balance between men and women, but it’s a function of demographics. Women make up about 30 per cent of the workforce in the sector but occupy only 20 per cent of the senior positions. I try to do better, but the demographics of the podcast probably reflect that reality.

Typically, I have a half-hour to an hour chat with potential guests, and we’ll develop the primary arc of the conversation. I don’t like scripting or going into too much detail. It takes an hour to record the episode. I do a draft edit and send it to a lady in Finland who does the fine edits. All in all, end-to-end, it’s probably a three-hour process. But then I’ve had a lot of practice. The first few episodes took a lot longer.

I do one podcast a week and publish it on Wednesday.

You’ve been doing these podcasts for four years and have just completed the 200th. On average, how many listeners do you have?

I can’t capture all the data because we don’t have access to some platforms. Roughly speaking, we have about 25,000 listeners a month. We’re nearing a million downloads and have had some 300,000 listeners. Our core audience listens to every episode, and many people dip in and out depending on the topic.

The commodity sector is niche; we only advertise on LinkedIn and to our connections. We create podcasts for the commodity sector.  Despite being niche, we are regularly in the business charts in Europe and the US.

Most of the other commodity podcasts are short market updates. Ours are more extended discussions. One advantage is that, as a recruiter, I can ask stupid questions, say I don’t understand something, and ensure everyone’s on the same page.

Ultimately, everything comes down to people. We talk about talent at some point in every podcast. The success of a hedge fund or trading house depends on how good their people are and the culture that they build.

HC Group is a global search firm dedicated to the commodity sector and the people within it. Our podcasts are an extension of the culture of the business.

What have you learned since you began the podcasts?

I feel less confident about everything now than before I started the podcasts four years ago. Understanding markets takes work and research. I’ve learnt how complex and nuanced everything is and how people quickly jump to shorthand, heuristic judgments.

Let’s take the energy transition. We’ve done episodes on critical minerals with issues around child labour, unsatisfactory working conditions, and corruption. Companies like Apple say that they want this and that, but they ignore some of the complexities. Regulators ignore the trading community when it comes to battery minerals. They don’t engage traders.

If you want to affect energy transition and get to the heart of sustainability, the commodity sector is the place to do it. Other sectors, like the technology sector, are terrible for the environment, but they’ve managed to hide the material supply chains they rely on. Trading houses and traders receive the blame.

A senior banker recently told me his bank’s risk committee would drop a commodity trading house if it got fined millions of dollars for an infraction. At the same time, Google regularly gets billions of dollars in fines, and no one has a problem doing business with them.

The stock market typically values companies with a trading arm at a discount. Trading is innately hard to understand. It overlays with the desire of the sector to go under the radar. Most of the headlines and books on commodity trading glorify and revel in the scandals. They do a disservice to the industry as they don’t reflect how it operates today.

When you see a headline that a trading company made billions of dollars trading European power, the public perception is that the energy traders have been gouging us. The reality is they have been solving problems.

The worry is that there’s intensive pressure on governments to intervene, particularly in the ag markets. Without a free-trading commodity market, you would have increased volatility, sharper price spikes, and higher inflation. It is a real challenge for the sector. In a more volatile world, will we lose the functionality that allows markets to address issues in solving problems in space, time, and form?

When I first joined the sector, the top companies, such as Cargill, had the pick of the best schools in the US. The top students now go to investment banks, hedge funds, and technology companies. A lot of that has to do with the low returns over the last decade. It has resulted in a talent bottleneck at the junior executive level. Everyone’s feeling it.

You’ve got two more issues. One is that the sector is male-dominated, which makes it harder to attract women. The other is the environment. It can be hard to tell your classmates you’re joining an oil-trading company.

The sector has some real challenges. It’s not promoting itself. It’s not attracting the best and the brightest. And it hasn’t done so for some time.

When I did an MBA at Rice University in Houston, we had classes on equity trading but not commodity trading. Few universities teach how commodities flow around the world. All top universities should have classes on it.

© Commodity Conversations® 2024

Commodity Professionals – The People Behind the Trade is available on Amazon.

Five Questions for Anita Neville

Screenshot

You are the chief sustainability and communications officer at Golden Agri-Resources (GAR), the world’s second-largest palm oil producer. You’ve been with GAR for eight and a half years, but before that, you were ten years with Rainforest Alliance. What made you move?

I worked for ten years with Rainforest Alliance and seven years with WWF. It was a long stint, and I was ready for a change. If you’re a communicator from the NGO community, you usually end up in a Nestlé, a Unilever, or a retailer, but brands and sales don’t motivate me. I’m motivated by how we grow things and how farmers farm.

I am the most city of city people. I grew up in Brisbane, but my father was a quintessential Australian who loved the bush. When we were kids, we were always off camping somewhere out West. He was always dragging us off to state forests and national parks. It spurred my love of the natural world and the environment. I’m a product of the 1970s when national forests were still working. I saw land used productively and managed for its environmental values. I believe my father is to blame for where I ended up.

Several former Rainforest Alliance and WWF colleagues have moved into corporate roles. It’s a good thing. You need an intersection between not-for-profit organizations, business, and government. You need them to mix and blend so that they understand each other better.

I was in Singapore in September 2015, and a friend suggested I talk with GAR. I did. It seemed like a great way to do what I love but in a corporate environment. It ticked all the boxes. My family agreed to move, so it all worked out.

I’m also a board member for the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil, but you look at certification differently when you’re a business.

When you’re the standard system designing principles and criteria, you should ask yourself how the system drives continuous improvement for the whole sector. Unfortunately, it too often becomes, ‘How do you lift the top – the ceiling?’

The big difference for me coming to GAR—and why I joined—is that people will hold the company accountable for the weakest link in its supply chain, the smallholder. As a business, we must lift the industry’s floor with us. It’s what certification should be doing, too.

We’re asking, “Is this about lifting everyone or improving the top two per cent?” If it’s the latter, it’s of no use to us. Lifting the floor is critical to us as a business and industry and to Indonesia as a country.

Is there an issue with certification in that producers pay for it, making smallholders worse off?

I was perhaps atypical, even in Rainforest Alliance, but I’ve never agreed that certification suits everyone. Working in the corporate environment, I see how expensive it is for smallholders.

I share your concern about cost. Who pays? It is challenging because most certification systems don’t break 20 to 30 per cent of global production. The FSC is the most successful at maybe 30 per cent of global timber production.

I want to see smallholders improve their production practices. I want to walk them to the door of certification on the assumption that a standard system represents the best agricultural practice. But we should give them the right to choose. Do they go through the certification door and commit to a lifetime of paying an annual audit fee and all the things that come along with that? Or do we help them to behave appropriately, regardless of the certificate or the piece of paper?

I don’t believe certification systems have developed well for smallholders. You end up with a big gap between the certified and the uncertified, the latter making up the lion’s share of global production. It doesn’t seem to be the right solution. Certification is excellent for many things, but I don’t think it’s the only tool we should use.

Regulation is stepping in to do what certification hasn’t done. We see that with the EUDR and ISPO (Indonesia Sustainable Palm Oil), the country’s national sustainability certification scheme for palm oil. It will become mandatory by 2025. There is no easy answer regarding what’s better, certification or regulation.

I’m looking for a buyer who is prepared to pay the actual cost of commodity production, with all the externalities internalized into the price.

Now, let’s go back to your job. Do you spend your day on sustainability or communications?

In some ways, sustainability is communications. I spend much of my day trying to inspire, negotiate with, convince, and cajole people into doing things they may not want to do. Or to act faster than they feel comfortable with.

Sustainability is also about translating sustainability jargon into business speak. It’s essential to step back and translate external demands so the company can understand, absorb, and make informed decisions. Then, you must translate back out from inside the business to external stakeholders and explain why you’re doing what you’re doing at the pace that you’re doing.

I feel I’m communicating all the time. But it’s probably about 70 per cent on sustainability and 30 per cent on communications.

Before joining GAR, I spent over 20 years working in international environmental NGOs. I’m well-versed and battle-hardened in the campaigning and political world of the environment. I take my responsibility for sustainability seriously.

Judgment should focus on GAR’s actions in the field. What are we delivering? Are we meeting our commitments? If we’re not, are we explaining why we’re not in a legitimate, understandable, and acceptable way?

I’m proud of what GAR is delivering. Could we be faster? Could we do more? Sure, of course. But over the last nine years, we’ve delivered on our commitments to a deforestation-free supply chain and the transformation of our suppliers. We’re working hard on climate change and reducing our carbon emissions. Our CEO is a great advocate for that work, and I’m proud of the part I’ve played in getting him there.

We have previously worked with external NGOs on some environmental or social issues. We collaborated with Greenpeace to develop our approach to high-carbon stock areas. We’ve worked with OFI, Orangutan Foundation International, on orangutan conservation and training our staff on the estates and communities on zero harm to wildlife.

We prefer to work with local groups and organizations rather than international NGOs. We aim to build Indonesia’s local capacity to advocate for its environment and social issues.

Palm oil is the most environmentally sustainable vegetable oil, yielding five times more than sunflowers, six times more than soybeans, and ten times more than coconuts. Why aren’t these statistics reaching the broader public?

Those are just numbers. Numbers lack emotional appeal. It doesn’t matter how productive palm is compared to soy or rapeseed; you lose the argument whenever somebody posts a video of an orangutan in a devastated forest on social media. People regularly post videos from 2013 as if they were happening now. No, it happened ten years ago. It is terrible that it happened, but things have greatly improved in the past ten years.

We must put a human face on palm oil because the stats won’t help us. We’ve done that in a limited way at GAR, given that we don’t have the marketing budgets of a Unilever or a Nestlé. We’ve seen people wake up to the reality that you can produce palm sustainably. Millions of people here in Indonesia rely on the crop, directly and indirectly, for their livelihoods. It can be a force for good.

But it is hard to get people to listen to those good news stories when they are so attuned to the negative.

In the late 1980s, soy was the big bad, but it didn’t last long. The NGOs quickly pivoted to palm, partly because soy fought back, but palm didn’t. It’s a cultural thing. A lot of plantation owners did a Southeast Asian thing and put their heads down, ignored it, and hoped it would go away. And so, in the vacuum created, the only narrative that stood was the NGO narrative. We’re slowly winning. It’s slow because that narrative is so entrenched now.

But we won’t win with those numbers you give, even though I use them all the time. We’ll win it based on human stories with an emotional connection and by delivering on the promises the palm sector has made around decoupling production from deforestation, protecting wildlife, and reducing carbon emissions.

We’ve taken the approach within GAR to ask how we can get into the inboxes of the people who matter the most – customers, our financial backers, and shareholders. We’ve done that. Once we talk to people directly and put facts in front of them, they get on board with the idea that palm can be sustainable.

Taking that to a broad public communication has been more challenging, partly because no one wants to hear it from us. Still, we see some influential journalists finally getting the message.

It can be challenging to combat fake news; how you react depends on whether it is a lie or an interpretation of events. If it’s a straight-up lie, it would depend a bit on where it was published and who was repeating it. But, honestly, it’s like Whack-a-Mole.

You must decide whether it is essential for you to challenge it. Challenging everything would be exhausting and time-consuming and would not give you much. You’d be spending all your time doing that and none of your time establishing your narrative.

When I joined, GAR was in a similar situation, consistently playing defence. We decided to stop reacting to every little thing about ourselves and the palm sector and to take control of our own story. We framed that around the implementation of the GAR Social and Environmental Policy. If it didn’t have a connection to that, we ignored it unless it was an egregious lie. It has stood us in good stead and given us consistency in our narrative, which we underpin with data.

We’ve continued to progress. We report on what we’re doing, how it’s going, and why it’s stalled in some instances. This has built credibility and confidence in the business. Our people know what our narrative is. They know what to talk about if they are challenged. It’s about empowering our employees to feel they can speak up and have pride.

Could you just give an example of what GAR is doing to improve the livelihood of your smallholders?

We employ nearly 100,000 people across Indonesia, most working on farms or in factories. We provide early childcare facilities (BPAs) and medical centres for our plantation workers, funding and running them in buildings on our estates. We have more than 340 early childcare centres, with over 770 carers serving in the region of two and a half thousand children, from babies through to the age of five, after which children in Indonesia move on to primary school.

We are working on how to improve the performance of these early childcare centres. We want to empower the women who run these centres to take over some financial management and improve their skills and abilities to become small business managers.

Many children in our BPAs failed to meet essential developmental milestones, such as the ability to sort from small to large, recognize colours, or stand on one foot – fundamental things. By introducing measures like regular height and weight checks, scaling up our caregivers on some basic educational requirements, and connecting them with our health clinics and volunteer services, we now address maternal and child health-related issues around stunting and malnutrition, a problem in Indonesia. Doing this can fundamentally change the direction of these children’s lives.

© Commodity Conversations® 2024

Commodity Professionals – The People Behind the Trade is available on Amazon.

A Conversation with Carlos Murilo Barros de Mello

Murilo is an old friend from my many years in the sugar market. He is almost unique in that he has worked all along the supply chain, first for a trade house (Louis Dreyfus), a bank (Macquarie), a producer (Raizen), an importer, and a food company (Tharawat in Saudi Arabia). He is now Hedgepoint’s head of sugar and ethanol for the Americas.

With over 10 years of experience in price-risk management for agricultural and energy commodity chains, Hedgepoint became an independent company in 2021 following a spin-off from EDF Man Capital. Operating globally, the company is strategically positioned near major commodity exchanges, with offices in São Paulo, Uruguay, Chicago, Zurich, Dubai, and Singapore. 

“I’ve been on both the sell and buy sides,” Murilo told me. “It allows me to put myself in my client’s shoes. When you do so, you know where it hurts. You know where the hurdles are. You know where the opportunities are. You know how they think. It makes it easier to shape a product.

“It helps with the language you use and how you communicate. It also helps in terms of my network. Ours is a small community, and I’ve been in the business for so long that I have ended up knowing everybody. Sugar is a big family.”

“We can’t control prices,” Murilo explained. “We are price takers and invest heavily in market intelligence to predict in which direction the winds are blowing so that we can help our clients protect their price risk. We also invest in understanding our client’s culture and risk appetite. We must know what risks a client might want to avoid and the risks they accept.

“If we combine an understanding of where prices are going with a sense of the sort of risk-management products a client prefers, we can personalise a risk-management strategy for each client – a custom-made product for the clients.”

“We invest a lot of time and resources in building our S&Ds and our trade flows, understanding weather, yields, planting intentions, politics – everything that affects production. Fundamental analysis is our bread and butter. We capture a vast quantity of data and use our reasoning and technology to process it in a meaningful way.

“We also pay attention to macro factors, particularly the dollar. If the dollar goes up, producers’ profits increase in local currency, allowing them to sell at a lower price. The rule of thumb is ‘dollar up, commodities down.’

“We also look at and use technical analysis for short-term moves:  moving averages, support and resistance, and that sort of thing. It helps us to pick the right moments to place or lift hedges.

I wanted to move the conversation to Brazil and its challenges in production and logistics.

“Agribusiness is undoubtedly the most efficient industry in Brazil,” Murilo told me. We are second to none globally in terms of productivity and efficiency. People tend to think of agriculture as an old craft with small farms. It’s not that at all. It is at the cutting edge of technology, not only for the seeds but also for best management and industrial practices.

“Our first challenge is growing the sector to meet expanding global demand through higher yields and more efficiency without damaging the environment. People often paint Brazil in a bad light in agriculture because of deforestation in the Cerrado and Amazon, but nobody mentions that Brazil’s energy matrix is 90 per cent renewable.

“Infrastructure is our second challenge. Agricultural production has been increasing so quickly that it is hard for the country’s logistical infrastructure to keep up. Brazilian interest rates are among the highest in the world, making it complicated to get a return on infrastructure investment, whether rails, roads or ports.

“The country’s politics can be challenging. Policies and priorities change when the government changes, making investing complicated for the long term. It doesn’t help build confidence for long-term investors. That said, there are many things that the government has done right. During the eighties and nineties, the government privatised the railways and the ports, reducing government interference and increasing efficiency. It allowed the sector to tap international capital markets.

“The rail system has expanded significantly, making rail transport cheaper, safer, and more reliable.

“Some new roads are also being built privately, especially in the far north. The privatisation of logistic infrastructure has allowed agricultural production to flourish.”

“Are poor logistics holding Brazil back?” I asked.

“Logistics struggle to keep pace,” he replied. “However, things are improving fast, allowing expanded grain production in the frontier lands in the north. Previously, if you wanted to bring grains from North Mato Grosso to Santos, you would have to ship them 3,000 kilometres over poor roads. The new ports and roads in the north have cut these distances to 500 kilometres. The northern ports have also reduced ocean freight transport distances to Europe and the Panama Canal.”

From my days as an analyst, I remember how the high cost of inland transport shapes the crops farmers grow. When I started in the sector, Brazil’s sugar distillers provided all the ethanol in the country. However, corn ethanol production is taking market share in regions far from the ports. It makes more sense for these regions to use their corn for ethanol to supply the local fuel markets than transport it to the ports. The cost savings are further improved as the fuel distributors no longer transport gasoline to these remote regions.

People often complain that moving soybeans to Santos Port costs more than moving beans from Santos to China. I asked Murilo if that was true.

“It’s true,” he replied. “it’s partly because ocean freight is much more efficient and cheaper than road and rail freight. There is also less weight loss with ocean freight than with road and rail – particularly road. You lose a small percentage of weight when you move grains by trucks over poor roads. It is small, but it is significant. However, rail is taking an increasing share of the transport from farm to port; weight loss is becoming less of a factor.”

Jim Heneghan mentioned that US farmers are blessed with the Mississippi River Basin. River transportation is more environmentally and economically efficient than road and rail transport, giving US farmers a significant advantage over their Brazilian colleagues. I asked Murilo to comment.

“You are right,” he told me. “Brazil’s rivers are less workable than those in the US. We may increase barge transportation a little, but rail is the future for Brazilian crop exports.

“Moving commodities by rail increases our economic costs but not necessarily our environmental costs. Hydroelectricity accounts for about 60 per cent of Brazil’s energy matrix. Our rivers are not easily navigable, but they provide green energy.”

“Let’s move now to port elevation – the receiving and loading of grain onto ocean-going vessels,” I suggested. “How much does it cost to load a vessel at Santos?”

“This information is private,” he replied. Still, it should be about $11 per mt. Elevation used to cost as much as $36 per mt before privatisation. It initially fell to $18 per mt and stayed there for a few years, but it has been on a downward trend for the last twenty years.

“The ports have invested in faster, more efficient ship loaders. Thirty years ago, daily load rates were 2,000 to 3,000 mt/day. A terminal in Santos can now load as much as 40,000 mt/day.

“They have also invested in bigger and better warehouses, making segregating different qualities of commodities easier and speeding up reception.

“What’s the secret to a good elevation operation?” I asked.

“Efficiency is the secret to elevation,” he replied. “You must keep the costs down. It is a capital-intensive business. Maintaining high throughput volumes shrinks your fixed costs per tonne. Every penny counts.

“It can sometimes lead to a fight between the producers, trading companies, ports, and logistic operators. Traders and producers like to concentrate shipments and sales when prices are highest.

“Logistic operators like to ship the same quantity every month and don’t want the port and rail systems to stand idle. However, this is less of a problem because Brazilian agricultural production has increased significantly. The ports and rail systems run at 85-95 per cent capacity all year.

“There is a difference in how the sugar sector has developed compared to grains and oilseeds. The country’s sugar producers have become the biggest traders and exporters of sugar and have bought and built rail and port infrastructure. They have constructed an integrated value chain. The trading companies play that role in grains and oilseeds. Traders, not producers, own the grain and oilseed logistics infrastructure.”

© Commodity Conversations® 2024

This is an excerpt from my new book, Commodity Professionals—The People Behind the Trade, which is now available on Amazon.

A Conversation with Jim Heneghan

The Brazilian agricultural sector is efficient and professional but struggles to move its production to the ports for export. The roads often disintegrate into a mud bath, and trucks can back up for kilometres on the highway to Santos. Ships can wait months if the weather is terrible. The sector has invested heavily in rail freight, and the situation has improved somewhat, but the roads still clog up during harvest season.

During my career, I travelled to Brazil to visit clients, often inland, to talk with producers and discuss crop progress. I also frequently travelled to the US but never got much further than New York City and their annual Sugar Dinner. Admittedly, I worked for Cargill for two years in Minneapolis at the beginning of my career, but that was a long time ago. At the start of this book project, I knew little about the US agricultural export flow from field to port.

Luckily, a friend suggested I talk to Jim Heneghan. When Jim joined Louis Dreyfus in 1998, his first job was to buy and sell CIF (Cost Insurance Freight) barges from the interior of the US along the US River systems, primarily the Mississippi River and, to a lesser extent, the Ohio, and Illinois, and Missouri Rivers, flowing to New Orleans for export.

“US agriculture is blessed to have the Mississippi River System,” Jim told me. “It has thousands of miles of navigable waterways reaching the heart of the country’s grain belt.

“Moving crops to export ports by barge gives the US a tremendous transportation cost advantage over Brazil and Argentina,” he explained. “The cost of moving grains to the ports in those countries is enormous. US farmers don’t have to rely on the road system, like in Brazil, where they must truck grain from Mato Grosso to Santos across some tough kilometres. This cost advantage can ebb and flow with currency changes. For example, a weak Brazilian Real vs the US Dollar can offset some of that advantage, but the US’s natural advantage is not going anywhere.

Jim left Louis Dreyfus in 2013 to become the Global Business Manager for Agriculture at BTG Pactual, Brazil’s largest investment bank, where he was involved in setting up agricultural commodity trading from scratch. He now sits on the board of Greenfield Holdings, a company building the first new grain export elevator in Louisiana since 1979. The elevator will have an annual capacity of 11 million mt. It will receive grains and soybeans, predominately via barge, and load them onto oceangoing vessels for export.

“We are working on the final permits with the US Army Corps of Engineers,” Jim told me. “While developing this ship-loading facility, we have a barge-loading feeder facility upriver in Lake Providence, Louisiana. I don’t merchandise for that facility today, but I follow the facility’s positions and am involved in the company’s risk committee.”

The CIF barge market to New Orleans is the largest US cash market for corn and soybeans. It’s also the primary delivery mechanism for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn and soybean futures contracts. I asked Jim what the main drivers of the CIF barge market were.

“The supply and demand for exports out of New Orleans,” he replied. “You’re looking at the interior supply of crops that can lead to an exportable surplus into the river system for exports. Then there’s a big operational component, everything it takes to load, insure, ship, and manage a barge. We must also watch out for quality and phytosanitary aspects. All of this is risk management.”

“When people talk about exports from New Orleans,” I asked, “does that include all of Louisiana?”

“There’s a mile marker system,” Jim told me. “When ocean vessels come into the river system, they pass the Southwest Pass (SWP), where the captain hands over his ship to a pilot who takes it up the river system.

“Regarding commodity loading within the river system, nothing exists for the first 40 miles because of the delta. The main loading corridor for grain is from mile marker 60 up to about 210 miles north of the sea, above the SWP. A bridge in Baton Rouge with an air draft doesn’t permit large vessels like Capesize or Panamax to go north from there. The main commodity corridor is from Baton Rouge to the south of New Orleans. Call it a 100-mile corridor.

“It’s tidal, but the river levels depend more on the water flowing from the Mississippi River system. At Baton Rouge, you can have a low of 5 feet on the river gage to a high of 40 feet. The tides matter, but the river depth depends more on the upstream variability.

“We heard a lot about low water levels restricting barge activity. Is it something that will happen regularly?” I asked.

“I sure hope not,” he replied. “Low water levels make things difficult from an operation standpoint, loading and shipping barges at the proper draft and ideal economics. The whole system backed up due to the historic droughts in the Southwest and Western Corn Belt. That’s recovered somewhat, and we’re returning to a more normalized flow.

“The river system is also prone to flooding. If you have too much water in the system, you can get flooding on the lower Mississippi River around Cairo, Illinois. That’s a big area with a lot of flow coming in. It can flood portions of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana along the river system. As the water rolls down to New Orleans, the authorities can open spillways to relieve the flow. But yeah, there can be severe flooding episodes.

“Floods will affect the downbound transportation and grain supply to New Orleans. It can be hazardous to take a barge tow downbound. The river authorities will restrict the number of barges you can transit. It can be mitigated to some degree by rail freight, but the system is set up to be barge-served. Typically, 90 per cent of the supply arrives via barge and 10 per cent by rail.

“The upbound move also becomes difficult as it’s a throughput and a backhaul system. If barges can’t get downbound, then they can’t get upbound. But even if they can get upbound, going against the current requires a lot of tow power.

“Then, at some point, if the river levels are high enough, it’s hazardous to have anything in transit as you’re putting projectiles on the water that can eliminate docks and bridges. There have been episodes of tows or vessels breaking away.

“I always imagined,” I told Jim, “that the barges would be empty going back up.”

“You’ll get empty barges upbound, but the barge companies try to do a backhaul if they can – often fertilizers. The downbound is usually grain and coal.”

“Does agriculture compete with coal on the Mississippi for barge capacity?” I asked.

“The barges are different. Grain barges are covered, whereas coal ones aren’t. You have a different barge capacity and fleet for different products, but you still have throughput and need tows and schedules to go up and down. It can be complementary, but it might be competitive at other times. It’s hard for the ag space to move the energy space. It’s the other way around.”

“Could you explain the CIF barge market to me?” I asked him. “How does it work?”

“If you have a farm close to the river system, depending on the time of season and other factors, the best market for your grain is probably for export. You would sell it to a silo operator who would put it on a barge. These river facilities typically don’t have a lot of storage. They’re throughput facilities, like New Orleans, but on a smaller scale.

“If you’re running a river terminal, you will look at the export bid Free on Board (FOB) New Orleans and back that up to the interior, including all the transport and surveying costs and an elevation margin for the grain facility on the river system. The grain barge loading facilities will try to buy enough grain to load up barges and build a program. The barge quantities are roughly 55,000 to 60,000 bushels. Let’s call it 1,500 metric tons (mt).

“If you are in the heart of the Midwest, you may get competitive bids from oilseed crushers, food processors, and biofuel producers. Farmers will say, “What’s my best market today, spot or forward, export or domestic?”

“Louis Dreyfus owns river loading facilities, buys grain directly from the farmers, and loads it on barges. When I worked there, we didn’t buy FOB the river; we covered the whole supply chain.”

“How much weight is typically lost during transport to the export terminal?” I asked.

“Typically, you have a loss of around one-quarter of one per cent,” he replied.

I had read somewhere that as farms get bigger, they are taking over the inland storage role from the trade houses and farmer cooperatives. I asked Jim if that was true.

“Yes,” he replied. “On-farm storage has increased due to good farmer profitability over an extended period. Farmers have become more corporate over time and are now handling assets previously held by the big co-ops or the multinational players. The multinationals have gotten out of that business; regional co-ops and farmers have replaced them.

“The big co-ops like CHS have international operations and do everything from agronomy to services, fuel, distribution, handling, owning assets, merchandising, et cetera, all the way through to financial services. Then, you have regional versions with big co-ops in states like Iowa. Some own processing facilities and crush plants to serve renewable diesel demand.

“The old romantic co-op model where the farmer drives down to the one small co-op elevator in the middle of town is dated. The US is moving more towards a Brazilian model of corporate farming driven by demographics and the search for economies of scale.”

Around 40 per cent of the annual US corn harvest goes to ethanol and DDGS production. With the country developing its Renewable Diesel Programme, I wondered whether its agricultural exports would decline. Would this result in export overcapacity on the Mississippi?

“It ebbs and flows,” Jim told me. “It’s never been structurally oversupplied, and elevation margins are usually positive. The problem is more in the other direction. Elevation margins surge when export demand picks up. It’s not easy to build a new export terminal. You’ve had natural expansion from the existing players, but little new capacity has been brought online.

“We’ve mandated more demand for biofuels, and maybe we will have fewer soybeans and corn to export, but we could increase soybean meal and DDG (Dried Distillers grains – a by-product of ethanol production) exports. Chinese soybean crushers have a duty advantage in importing soybeans and crushing them domestically rather than importing meal,” Jim told me. “But if that ever changed, we could see meal shipping to China rather than soybeans.

“It’s been part of our thought process at Greenfield regarding our new facility. The river system is so expansive there are ways of shipping meal rather than beans. The US system can adapt quite well. If that’s an opportunity to adjust, it can do it.”

“What are the biggest changes you’ve seen in your career in the US domestic market?” I asked Jim. “Is it biofuels, corporate consolidation, or something else?

“The two episodes of biofuels expansion in the US. The first was corn ethanol and, to a lesser extent, soybean oil-based biodiesel with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) starting in 2005. It significantly altered the economics of domestic processing versus export demand for corn. The second is happening now with the expansion of Renewable Diesel (RD). It is increasing the domestic consumption of soybeans and soybean oil.

“Can you tell me three things about the CIF barge market,” I asked, “that everybody should know but nobody thinks of?”

“The first goes back to the delivery system. The CIF barge market is one of the most transparent, liquid, visible agricultural physical markets. It is standardized and well thought out regarding rules, regulations, and trading and has a heterogeneous trading base. It ties directly into the CME futures instruments and is an excellent mechanism for connecting physicals to futures. How the CME corn and soybean futures markets converge with physicals at expiry depends on the CIF barge market.

“The second is that the direction of future price or “flat price” depends on the US balance sheet, distilled down to supply and demand, stocks or stocks to use, which you can quantify, but much of the variability is due to exports.

“The third is that the corn and soybean futures listed on the CME are for US corn and soybeans. The CME futures are a benchmark for world prices but are US corn and soybean contracts. You cannot deliver Brazilian corn or soybeans on the CME futures contracts. Grain in Brazil is fungible with grain in the US, but it’s not deliverable.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2024

This is an excerpt from my new book, Commodity Professionals—The People Behind the Trade, which is now available on Amazon.

Five Questions for Ivo Sarjanovic

 If I remember correctly, Ivo, you always wanted to be a teacher. How did you end up as a trader?

I have always had a vocation for teaching. Although I pursued accounting in Argentina, my focus lay in economics. I commenced a PhD program in economics at New York University, but unforeseen circumstances thwarted its completion. Consequently, I returned to Rosario and embarked on a career in trading. I have no regrets about this shift; I perceive striking parallels between the intellectual rigour of market positioning and the pursuit of scientific inquiry. Moreover, it proved to be a prudent economic decision.

Nevertheless, I always intended to return to teaching upon retiring from trading. Lacking a PhD, I am more akin to an industry practitioner—someone equipped with experience to impart rather than a purely academic figure. I enjoy teaching, but it is more of a hobby.

Some of my colleagues at Cargill affectionately dubbed me ‘the Professor.’ In collaboration with a colleague, Dave Buchanan, we established a Grain Academy within Cargill. Although I am uncertain of its current existence, it was an exceptional program complementing what you learn in your daily roles.

Cargill’s culture weaves teaching into one’s responsibilities, eliminating the dichotomy between work and education. In addition to learning technical tools, it fosters an environment rife with brainstorming, diverse perspectives, and open forums for discourse.

I’ve always viewed trading as an intellectual challenge. As a follower of the philosopher Karl Popper, I find his ideas particularly applicable to trading. Your game plan serves as a hypothesis you present to address the problems you encounter in the market structure. Subsequently, you test this hypothesis through the mechanism of profit and loss. Profit validates it, whereas a loss falsifies it.

Could you talk me through your current teaching activities?

I have been teaching at the University of Geneva since 2008 and recently became a fellow at the Erasmus Commodity Centre in Rotterdam. Additionally, I instruct a class on Agri-commodities in the Master of Finance program at Di Tella University in Buenos Aires and the Master’s program in Agri-business at Austral University in Rosario. Apart from these commitments, I am predominantly involved in seminars and lectures. Furthermore, even in more informal capacities, I coach and mentor individuals within the industry.

Preparing for classes, creating presentations, and keeping them current demands considerable time. It extends beyond the hours spent in front of the class. When presenting a class for the first time, I may invest up to 10 hours in preparation for a one-hour session. Once I’ve created the slides, updating them for subsequent classes typically requires one to two hours per session. However, developing a new theme from scratch consumes significant time.

Recently, I compiled a presentation on population dynamics and its future implications on food demand. This endeavour entailed extensive preparation, including reading many books and articles, conducting research, and verifying information by contacting the authors of relevant pieces.

Occasionally, I deliver presentations virtually, which offers the advantage of saving time and transportation costs. Nonetheless, I prefer teaching in person; it facilitates a stronger connection with my students.

Navigating diverse skill levels among students poses a challenge. There’s a risk of speaking at a level that may be too advanced for some while too basic for others. The key is maintaining a balance, ensuring everyone can understand the material while occasionally introducing concepts that challenge the more adept learners.

Furthermore, adjusting the teaching approach when transitioning from instructing young students one week to addressing executives the next presents its own set of complexities.

What makes a good teacher/educator?

Practical experience holds significant value in the realm of commodities. Students become highly engaged when they perceive their instructor has practical expertise. For many, studying commodities isn’t purely academic but a way to advance their careers.

Remaining current with the subject matter, such as incorporating recent real-world examples, is essential.

A dynamic presentation style is crucial to maintain student engagement. Occasionally, introducing surprising or even controversial concepts can stimulate lively discussions.

Drawing connections between commodities and various disciplines such as economics, politics, geopolitics, agronomy, meteorology, and new technologies enhances understanding.

What else? When discussing commodities broadly, it’s imperative to transcend specific geographies or products, ensuring a comprehensive approach. It is especially true in Geneva, where students have different perspectives and origins. You need to avoid falling into the trap of being a hyper-specialist.

Reflecting on my transition from trading for Cargill, where my focus was intensely narrow—mainly dedicated to predicting soybean and later sugar market movements—I now embrace a broader perspective. I derive satisfaction from forging connections and appreciating the larger picture.

Do you also teach people how to trade?

I’m uncertain whether one can truly teach someone to become a trader. However, it’s possible to refine and enhance the skills of those with a natural trading aptitude. Specific innate capabilities, such as risk appetite, are essential for success in trading and cannot be taught. While some individuals possess a high-risk appetite, others may have little or none. Beyond risk appetite, there are other qualities required for trading success. Once you have identified these abilities, you can nurture and develop them through training and education.

The analogy to a sportsman is a good one. Much like you can’t create a player like Messi out of thin air, you can improve Messi’s skills through proper training, discipline and nutrition.

Economics plays a pivotal role in equipping traders with foundational knowledge. I utilise a triangular framework to elucidate how commodity prices are determined. Microeconomics constitutes one angle of the triangle, with supply and demand as the primary price determinant. Macroeconomics forms the second angle, explaining how macro variables such as growth, inflation, and interest rates influence price dynamics. Investment funds represent the third angle of the triangle. They are the catalysers of price movements but not the determinants.

When futures markets are well designed, prices always converge to fundamental values. A recent example in the coffee market illustrates this phenomenon: over the past two weeks, funds drove prices higher in anticipation of a trend similar to that seen in cocoa. However, once their buying momentum waned, prices corrected lower, as the underlying fundamentals did not support the rally.

The interplay among these three realms—micro, macro, and funds—accounts for the dynamics of price movements. Microeconomics elucidates the fundamental factors driving price trends, while macroeconomics illustrates how external economic conditions influence this trajectory. And the funds act as the catalysts for price movements.

What educational advice would you give young people looking to enter the agriculture commodity sector?

When I began my career in South America, companies typically required candidates to hold degrees in economics, accounting, business administration, statistics, or agronomy to enter agricultural trading. However, upon relocating to Europe, I was surprised to discover that some of my colleagues held bachelor’s degrees in art, languages, psychology, law, and international relations. This diversity enriched our discussions, adding depth and richness to our perspectives.

The landscape has evolved since then. Employers now seek candidates with additional quantitative knowledge and basic programming skills.

While having a master’s degree may be advantageous, it’s not a prerequisite for entering the trading profession. However, the Master in Commodities program at the University of Geneva offers a unique advantage—a blend of practical work experience and academic learning. With students spending 70 per cent of their time gaining hands-on experience in a company and 30 per cent attending classes at the university, this program offers a potent combination, particularly when the sponsoring company has a well-organised training system.

Once you embark on a trading career, trading a diverse range of commodities, especially those with varying delivery mechanisms, is beneficial. Or if your company is not involved in different markets, it’s always interesting to have exposure to different qualities or distinct origins.

The delivery mechanism significantly impacts trading dynamics. For instance, in my experience trading soybeans, where delivery primarily occurs along the Mississippi River, you learn how the delivery mechanism affects premiums and spreads in a certain way. In the sugar market, where delivery occurs worldwide on a Free on Board (FOB) basis, futures serve as a source of origination, creating a completely different trading dynamic. Delivering sugar around the globe at a uniform price makes premiums more stable but time spreads much more volatile.

My last piece of advice is to ‘Choose your boss wisely.’ A supportive and inspiring boss fosters motivation, curiosity, and continuous learning. While you may not always have the luxury of selecting your boss when given the opportunity, prioritise not just the job but also the individual you’ll be working under. It will have a significant impact on your career.

© Commodity Conversations® 2024This is an excerpt from my new book, Commodity Professionals—The People Behind the Trade, which is now available on Amazon.

The following schools offer courses on commodity trading:

University of Geneve

Mastershttps://www.unige.ch/gsem/en/programs/masters/commodity-trading/

Diplomahttps://www.unige.ch/gsem/cours/commoditytrading

Certificate: https://www.unige.ch/gsem/cours/cas-commodity-trading

Bayes Business School – City University of London

Masters: https://www.bayes.city.ac.uk/study/masters/courses/energy-trade-and-finance#accordion-v23-570233-header470242

Erasmus Commodity and Trade Center – Erasmus University of Rotterdam

Executive education:  https://www.eur.nl/en/erasmusctc

University of Luzern

Certificate: https://www.hslu.ch/en/lucerne-school-of-business/continuing-education/cas/ifz/commodity-professional/

 University of Fribourg 

LLM (for lawyers)https://www.unifr.ch/ius/llm/en/programs/commodity-trading/llm.html

J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities and Energy Management – University of Colorado at Denver

Different courses: https://business.ucdenver.edu/jpmorgancenter/

Universad Austral: MBA en Agronegocios: 

https://www.austral.edu.ar/cienciasempresariales/agronegocios/mba-en-agronegocios/

Instituto de Estudios Bursatiles – Madrid

Programa: https://www.ieb.es/executive-education/programas-directivos/agro-commodities/

University of Derby

Short course: https://www.derby.ac.uk/short-courses-cpd/online/commodities-trading/

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Undergraduate degree in agricultural marketing: https://ace.illinois.edu/academics/undergraduate-degree

Graduate degree: https://ace.illinois.edu/academics/graduate-degrees

Agrinvest-UniSenai – MBA Grain Merchandising:

 

Suissenegoce:

Different courses: https://www.suissenegoce.ch/training

Lugano Commodity Trading Association

Certificate: https://www.lcta.ch/en/october-11-2024-january-11-2025-certified-commodity-trading-specialist-ccts/

A Conversation with Nicolas Tamari

I interviewed Nicolas, the CEO of Sucafina, one of the world’s leading coffee trading and roasting companies, for my book on coffee. The interview focused on the coffee business, and we didn’t discuss leadership and the role of a CEO. I contacted Nicolas for this book, and he agreed to contribute. We met at his offices in Geneva, where the building was being renovated, and I ended up on the wrong floor. We eventually found each other and chatted in the company’s kitchen. I asked him how he defined leadership.

“I define leadership as being able to do three things simultaneously,” he answered. “The first is to inspire people. The second is to manage people. The third is to contribute to the bottom line of the company. Vision is also crucial. A leader must define a clear vision and ensure everybody sticks to it.

“Culture, values, and vision make a company, but I would also add purpose. Our purpose at Sucafina is to create opportunities to improve lives. We deal with hundreds of thousands of growers worldwide; we can help improve their lives. It is what links everyone.”

While interviewing people for this book, I often stumbled over the expression, ‘Culture eats strategy for breakfast.’ I was initially confused by what it meant and then sceptical about whether it was true.

“Culture must be in people’s DNA,” Nicolas told me. “At Sucafina, we hire for values and train for skills. If you hire people who share the same values as you and buy into your culture, you can train them to be the best risk manager, IT person, HR person, or whatever. It’s difficult if you don’t have a commonality in the DNA of the culture and the values.”

Sucafina employs 42 nationalities in 49 locations in 36 countries. I was impressed that a CEO could impose, develop, or nourish a common culture across diverse cultures.

“To make a good cup of coffee,” he explained, “You need a blend of different origins, often from various continents. We are lucky at Sucafina to have this diversity; it is one of our strengths.

“We give everyone the freedom to speak to everyone. By sharing best practices, we learn from one another and improve. That’s one crucial thing. Second, we try to adapt to the local communities, mindset, and culture. We are a global company that acts locally. We try to empower local teams while maintaining a common message at the corporate level.”

“How would you define Sucafina’s culture?” I asked.

“In one sentence?” he replied. “I would say it’s what you see is what you get.”

Nicolas took over the responsibility for the company from his brother, who took it over from their father. He told me that his brother and father have a similar leadership style but are more hands-on than he is. He prefers a more delegating type of leadership, but what they do have in common is that they all walk the talk and lead by example.

I was interested in discussing the advantages a family firm might have in the trading world, but I was keen to talk further about leadership. Sucafina has the Sparks program to teach leadership, but I wanted to ask how successful it is. At school, I remember some kids were natural leaders, whether in sports or arts, and others followed them. Before meeting Nicolas, I discussed the issue with a friend, the retired CEO of a pharma company. He firmly believed that leaders are born, not made. What did Nicolas think?

“Some people are born leaders,” he told me. “Others are groomed to become leaders. However, to become a leader, you must have the ingredients of your personality, upbringing, and self-confidence.

“Sucafina’s Sparks program teaches leadership,” he explained. “It is a three-year course. Each year, we have between one and ten participants. So, on average, let’s call it six. As we have three years going on simultaneously, it’s 18 people. Up to now, I guess over 50 people have graduated.

“It is expensive but well worth the investment. In our industry, grooming people from inside the company rather than headhunting them from the outside is essential. By doing so, they truly live the company’s vision, purpose, and culture.”

Sucafina’s website highlights some of the women who have recently completed the Sparks programme. I was curious to learn what Sucafina was doing to promote gender equality.

“Historically,” Nicolas told me, “There have always been more men than women working in our industry, especially on trading desks. I have not yet been able to understand why. On the other hand, there are often more women than men in execution and operations and different departments such as HR or Communications.

“We want a mix of men and women,” he continued. “But we’re a meritocracy-based company. I do not want quotas for men or women. I want the most apt person to get the job. But yes, we want to promote women because we believe there are a lot of amazingly talented ladies out there who can grow and take on more responsibilities.

“For example, in East Africa, if we want something to happen on the ground with local communities, we empower women, and it’s often a big success. When we empower men, I cannot say the same thing. So, we want to empower more women.”

I asked, “Are there specific leadership challenges in trading companies compared to service, manufacturing, or industrial companies?”

“Humility as a leader of a commodity trading company is crucial,” he answered. “That’s one key difference. The second one is that in a commodity trading company, you start afresh each financial year and have your overheads to cover. Trading companies don’t have a recurrent built-in revenue to cover expenses, which you often find in a service industry like banking.”

Some trading companies have bought industrial assets to even out volatile earnings. I asked Nicolas if he had done the same.

“To reply to your question,” he replied, “I’ll go to our company vision, which is to be the world’s leading sustainable farm-to-roaster coffee company. We want to start at the farm, but we’re not farmers. We’re happy to be roasters but not brand owners.

“About ten years ago, we acquired Beyers Coffee, the largest roaster in Belgium. We also have an instant coffee business. Bayers and our instant coffee business are strategic as we can vertically integrate the supply chain. We will not be brand owners; otherwise, we will have conflicts of interest.

“These industrial assets also give us more predictability in our revenue. They indirectly help us by levelling our revenue and having a recurrent built-in margin.”

“Which is better, growth through acquisitions or internal growth?” I asked.

“Initially, I would say organic growth, but sometimes opportunities arise when you don’t expect them, and that’s where you need to acquire. Culture is critical when you acquire. You need to make sure the company you acquire fits the culture. It’s culture more than anything else.”

I quickly became overwhelmed when running our little analytical company and had to impose a structure to limit the number of people who reported to me directly. I wondered how many of Sucafina’s 1,400 employees reported directly to Nicolas.

“Eight,” he replied. “We use the acronym FIRST. F stands for finance, I stands for information systems technology, R stands for risk, S stands for staff and human resource, and T stands for trading and execution. So those five heads report to me, plus I have three further direct reports.

“Some of our managers only have four direct reports, but the average is about eight. It varies between five and ten, depending on the interaction between the manager and the employee, the level, and his responsibility.”

“How involved are you in the day-to-day operations and trading?” I asked.

“I’m involved in the company’s day-to-day operations, but it can operate quasi-normally without me. I’m aware of the trading positions we hold and the big-picture decisions.”

“If you decided to go and sail around the world for a year, would the company still work as well?” I asked.

“I would say for a couple of months,” he answered. “But not a year.”

I now wanted to return to ownership and whether family companies have an advantage over publicly quoted companies in trading.

“Whether you are family-owned, management-owned, or even private equity-owned,” he said, “I believe that commodity trading companies should not be publicly quoted. Why? Because of the unpredictability of the financial results. Share price volatility is not good.

“I’m not in favour of publicly listed trading companies unless you are an industrialist and have trading as your procurement arm, which enhances or not your profitability. Family businesses think and operate long-term. Commodity trading companies should have the management and the family as shareholders.”

Serge Varsano has instituted a company structure that limits his decision-making power. I wondered whether Nicolas had something similar.

“I have a board of directors, the majority of which are independent,” he said. “They empower me but impose certain limits in VAR, drawdown, counterparty, forex, etc. I navigate within these limits. I believe we’re well structured in terms of corporate governance for a company of our size.

“I’m here to make money but also to have fun. I don’t need to give a return to my shareholders of 30-50% a year. They’re comfortable allowing me to use the profits to grow the business.”

Serge Varsano also mentioned the importance of having fun in business. It made me wonder if I had had fun running my little company. I enjoyed the challenge, but was it fun? I am not sure.

“How do you inspire innovation as the company grows?” I asked.

“Innovation must be bottom-up as well as top-down,” he replied. When people have ideas, we must listen to them, assess whether they are feasible, and not be afraid of trying and failing fast. If you fail fast in innovation, you can fall back on your feet and re-innovate. If you don’t learn from your failure—and if you don’t fail fast—innovation can be a problem.”

I had to think about his answer for a while. It had never occurred to me that innovation could be a problem, but then I thought about the times when companies had introduced new IT systems only to see them fail.

“How involved do you get in recruitment?” I asked.

“I don’t see all candidates,” he replied, “But I often participate in the last round of interviews with key people or departments needing my involvement. I enjoy interviewing people because, as I said before, we hire for values and train for skills. So, through these interviews, I can understand whether a candidate shares our values.

“I always ask a candidate to share with me one experience that happened in their life from the age of five to 20 years old that contributed to the person they are today. I want something profound and sincere, not their exam results. It allows me to understand the person behind the CV.

“Sometimes, candidates reciprocate the question to me. I answer that at the age of seven, my parents put me in a boarding school in Switzerland without me knowing that I would go to a boarding school. I do not remember my parents telling me I was going. I suppose they did, but they didn’t explain the meaning of boarding school. You can imagine the trauma.

“It taught me how to survive in very unusual circumstances. On the other hand, it did not teach me to ask for help. It did not teach me to communicate. So, I often do things by myself. I’ve learned in the last decades how to work more with teams.

“The fantastic thing is that the kids I met at that school – I’m now 54 – are like brothers to me today. I can see them on the other side of the planet, and we can sit and have a meal, and it’s as if we haven’t seen each other for 20 minutes.”

“Last question,” I said. “What advice would you give someone taking up a leadership position for the first time?

“One: Listen and listen. Two: Lead by example. You cannot expect your people to do something you are unwilling to do. Three: Don’t be an asshole. We have an official “no-asshole” rule at Sucafina. It is independent of how much you contribute to the P&L or how great you are.”

I told Nicolas I had recently read Elon Musk’s biography and thought he was in the third category.

“Elon Musk is an exception,” Nicolas said. “I have just finished his biography. Working with him must be difficult and unpleasant, but he is one of the smartest guys on the planet. I give him the credit for being how he is.”

Dave Behrends, Sucafina’s head of trading, also recently read the biography. In a post on LinkedIn, he argued that Elon Musk breaks his four rules of management.

The first is ‘people are your best asset’.  Elon demonstrates that he views people as a tool. They start sharp but get dull over time, and you must ultimately replace them.

The second is ‘creating healthy work/life balance environments helps people thrive’. Musk orchestrates “surge events” that ask for the impossible of staff. It requires them to go from ‘always on’ to working nights, weekends, birthdays, anniversaries, and holidays with complete disregard for the strain it puts on people’s personal lives.

The third is ‘teams that work well together succeed together’. Elon has an ‘algorithm’ which dictates that you must challenge every rule or process. He discourages camaraderie as it limits people’s desire to challenge each other critically.

The fourth is ‘hire people better than yourself, empower them, and trust them to get you where you want to go’. Musk is highly opinionated. His decision-making, which often contradicts his team of experts’ opinions, is stunning. He fires people who challenge or disagree with him too much.

I discussed Dave’s post with a friend, a professor at a local business school, but he disagreed with Dave’s analysis. He told me that his four management rules might work in trading but don’t work in manufacturing, especially not in an innovative area such as space travel or electric cars. “You have to break stuff to succeed,” he told me.

“I’m not sure I don’t agree with your business school friend,” Nicolas told me. “I think it’s more about the ability of being one out of 5 billion and reinventing the industry you are in. Elon Musk has wholly reinvented the ecosystem through both Tesla and SpaceEx. To reinvent an ecosystem is something very bold. It requires out-of-the-box thinking, and you must be just one of a kind.

“Some traders are mercenaries who make money, take part of their money, and then start with the next page. When they lose money, they change companies. You could argue that certain commodity trading companies use people as a tool to generate money. It is what hedge funds do.

“And remember, Elon has a loyal and devoted workforce who love working for him. I would love to work for him for a couple of years,” he continued. “I would learn so much. Elon Musk is one of those people out there who have the courage and who can make the impossible possible. It’s all about leadership and the ability to go the extra mile and working very hard.”

“Elon Musk is the exception where the no-asshole rule does not apply. But I’m happy that Dave Behrends and I are aligned on this. It was not planned.”

© Commodity Conversations®2024

This is an excerpt from my new book, Commodity Professionals—The People Behind the Trade, now available on Amazon.