A Conversation with Michelle Deugd

 

Good morning Michelle, could you please tell us a little about yourself and how you ended up in coffee with the Rainforest Alliance?

I joined the Rainforest Alliance in 2008 and, throughout the years, I have managed a range of coffee projects in Latin America, Asia and Africa, focusing on the development of the Rainforest Alliance Certified coffee supply at the origin.  I am now the organisation’s sector lead for coffee.

Rainforest Alliance has merged with UTZ. Why?

Having a single certification programme will simplify certification for farmers and help companies to build more responsible supply chains and drive innovation more efficiently. Creating a single auditing process and streaming the certification process will not only help the more than 400,000 coffee farmers currently certified under both standards, but it will also help new farmers to certify.

It will also help to expand our advocacy efforts.

I understand you have a new strategy called ‘Reimagining Certification’.

‘Reimagining Certification’ is our long-term vision for the future of certification. It is part of our broader strategy at the Rainforest Alliance to drive change.

Certification has had a significant impact, but it must continue to evolve to drive further improvement for people and nature and provide more value for farmers and companies.

We are moving away from the idea that certification is a series of pass/fail requirements. Instead, we are adopting a continuous improvement approach that drives change from a set of core criteria.

What does this mean in practice? It means first ensuring that all workers receive a minimum wage – but continuing to drive improvements towards a living wage. It means working to stop deforestation–and then going beyond that, towards reforestation or regenerative agriculture.

Could you please explain the economic elements in the new criteria?

Our 2020 Sustainable Agriculture Standard outlines two financial requirements for the buyers of Rainforest Alliance Certified commodities: The Sustainability Differential (SD) and Sustainability Investments (SI).

The Sustainability Differential is a mandatory additional cash payment made to certified producers over and above the market price of the commodity. We don’t set the Sustainability Differential in the coffee sector; the grower and the first buyer will negotiate it between them.

The Sustainability Investments are mandatory cash or in-kind investments from buyers of Rainforest Alliance certified products to certified producers for the specific purpose of helping them meet the farm requirements of our Sustainable Agriculture Standard. The investments must go towards the needs identified by producers in their investment plans, and buyers must report the investments they make.

Besides these new criteria related to shared responsibility, our 2020 Sustainable Agriculture Standard also enhances practices which promote improved efficiency and farm-based profitability as the basis for an improved farm income.

How has the Rainforest Alliance changed its approach to child and forced labour?

Child labour, forced labour, discrimination, and workplace violence and harassment have never been – and will never be – tolerated by the Rainforest Alliance. However, what we have learned through many years of experience is that merely prohibiting these human rights violations in our standard is insufficient. Automatic decertification as the response to any incident of child labour is more likely to drive the problem underground, making it harder to detect and address. That’s why our new certification programme promotes an ‘Assess-and-Address’ approach to tackling these human rights issues.

The ‘Assess-and-Address’ approach puts the interest of children and workers at its centre. Without solving the root causes of child labour, forced labour, discrimination, and workplace violence or harassment, the problems will not go away. That’s why the Rainforest Alliance promotes collaboration between certified farms, governments, civil society and supply chain partners to solve these issues together.

How can you increase the demand for certified coffee?

Our market team works with brands, roasters and retailers to develop demand, and they have been successful in their work in the sense that both of our certification programmes have continued to grow since the merger. It has even been the case in 2020 in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Besides that, you need to look beyond the data of one single certification system to get to the full understanding of supply-demand data. Many farms are double- or sometimes triple-certified. If they sell their coffee through one certification system, it is not available to sell through another certification system.

Last question: what is your favourite coffee, and how do you prepare it?

My favourite coffee comes from a sustainably managed small farm in the Tarrazú mountains of Costa Rica, at 1,700 meters above sea level. A young family manage the whole process from cherry to roasted bean, selling the coffee at the local market of the village where I live. I prepare it with a Chemex coffee maker to obtain the full flavour!

Thank you, Michelle, for your time and input!

You are welcome. Thank you for your interest in the Rainforest Alliance!

© Commodity Conversations ® 2020

This is an extract from my new book ‘Crop to Cup – Conversations over Coffee’ to be published shortly.

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Eight years after negotiations first started, 15 Asian nations signed the world’s biggest trade agreement with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The treaty is considered by some as somewhat symbolic and excludes most agricultural products, although it does highlight a tilt in Chinese trade towards more regional partners. At the same time, however, China’s western trade partners have expressed frustrations at the claim that China detected coronavirus samples on the packaging of food imports. In response, New Zealand doubted claims that its frozen beef had signs of the virus. And the WHO and FAO repeated their findings that the virus does not appear to spread through food trade. 

The EU is hoping that a new US President would ease the trade tensions built up by the previous administration. Negotiations over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have stalled but EU lawmakers said they hoped to resume talks soon. As a sign of goodwill, perhaps, a committee backed a proposal to remove EU duties on US lobsters. US lobster producers have been struggling to compete because of duties from China and the EU’s free trade deal with Canada. 

The situation concerning a potential trade deal between the EU and the UK does not look as promising, however. Tate & Lyle and Associated British Foods suggested that Northern Ireland could face supply issues in January 2021 because of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations. The current proposal does not outline how British goods will have access to Northern Ireland, as the region is due to remain in the EU’s single customs market. 

Fish and the protection of British fisheries remain one of the main issues blocking an agreement. An expert noted that the issue was relatively unimportant when measured in terms of economic impact as it only represents 0.08% of the UK’s GDP. The UK Prime Minister is not willing to make any concessions, however, because it is highly symbolic as it represents the UK’s ability to regain its territorial sovereignty. France, meanwhile, has a large fishing fleet and the French President promised to block a deal unless its fishermen are granted access to British waters. 

Speaking of fish, new research identified issues concerning the practice of focusing only on abundant species. Focusing on abundant species can sometimes have a significant impact on other species in what researchers called “indirect extinction cascades”. The fishing world is also unimpressed by China’s campaign to crack down on illegal fishing in the Yangtze River. China’s massive fishing fleet is currently doing a lot more damage to distant fish stocks as far West Africa and the Galapagos. Vessels have to keep going further as the once-abundant Yangtze River, Yellow Sea, Bohai Sea and East China Sea are all effectively considered depleted.

Aquaculture and fish farms have long been promoted as a more sustainable method to produce seafood but a series of dramatic farming disasters has made the practice unpopular with many activists. They point to issues like fish escapes, disease, antibiotic use, and waste as a way to argue that fish farms should be kept out of our oceans. Nevertheless, innovation has made the industry a lot more sustainable over the past few years. The FAO argued that wild fish populations cannot meet the growing demand for seafood and that sustainable aquaculture will have to step in. As of 2018, 46% of the fish eaten globally came from a farm. 

Some aquaculture innovations, like developing a more efficient feed based on microalgae, have been cheerfully accepted, while others remain controversial. In the US, for example, the FDA approved the first genetically modified salmon breeds in 2015 but the product is still not on the market because of legal challenges. The GMO salmon grows twice as fast and has been eaten by Canadians for years. A US court, however, ruled last week that the FDA failed to properly consider the long-term risk of GMO salmon before giving its approval. 

The rush to invest in the plant-based meat sector, meanwhile, continues. Unilever announced a plan to increase sales of meat alternatives five-fold to USD 1.2 billion in 5-7 years, while McDonald’s announced the launch of its own plant-based burger, uninspiringly called the McPlant. At the same time, however, the sale of traditional butter has been steadily rising over the past few years although consumption is not expected to recover to the levels seen before it had to compete with margarine. Nonetheless, butter’s comeback reflects the realisation that plant-based margarine is not necessarily healthier, while an increase in disposable income makes butter a viable option despite its higher price. 

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

A Conversation with Soren Schroder

Good morning Soren. Could you please tell us what you have been doing since you left Bunge?

I left Bunge in June 2019 after six years as CEO, and after 36 years in traditional agricultural trading and processing with Continental, Cargill and Bunge.

Over the past year, I have been trying to use my experience to help emerging companies across the full spectrum of the agricultural value chain. I have provided advice, directorship and, in some cases, capital to support these new companies in plugging into the existing food chain, to avoid mistakes, and to develop their thinking and their products.

I started with a blank page, but my premise was that food and health are inseparable and that agriculture should not only be sustainable but regenerative.

Where did you start?

I started with Vindara, a company that produces seeds for indoor agriculture. It is a sector that is snowballing. For example, Singapore has a project called ‘30 / 30’ whereby the city-state aims to grow 30 per cent of their nation’s food by 2030. They can only do this through investment in vertical agriculture.

The technology in the indoor sector is changing rapidly. For example, Vidara has reduced the breeding cycle for new seeds from 5-7 years to 18 months and can essentially tailor-make seeds to suit a specific outcome.

What other companies have you become involved in, either as an investor, director, or external advisor?

I am an advisor to Gro Intelligence, a company that curates and assembles global digital data around agriculture and food and provides sophisticated analytical tools to help draw supply chain conclusions. It is my ‘go-to source’ for market intelligence and analytics. The company is also developing various indices relating to climate disruption.

I am on the board of Kultivat, a company that has developed the technology to extract high-quality latex – natural rubber – from dandelion roots. It is a sustainable and economically competitive alternative to synthetic and plantation-grown rubber. Remember, synthetic rubber is produced from fossil fuels, while natural rubber is currently grown on plantations in South East Asia; it has the same environmental challenges as palm oil. Dandelion is an excellent alternative crop for farmers.

I have worked closely with Locus Agriculture Solutions, a company that makes micro-biological products that improve yields, reduce the need for inputs, and increase the ability of plants to capture carbon. They recently completed the first circular deal in carbon capture in row crops. The $250,000 sale was between a prominent Iowa farmer and Shopify, a Canadian-based technology firm. They did the deal in partnership with the Nori Carbon Removal Marketplace.

I’m on the board of  Telesense, a company that has developed low-cost, remote sensor equipment that monitors grain quality. It uses data and AI to predict how grain quality will evolve during storage, helping to reduce spoilage. It also allows you to optimise merchandising decisions and improve processing yields for a range of raw materials from malting barley to oilseeds.

You have several diverse but complimentary themes here. What other arrows do you have in your quiver?

The one thing that all these companies have in common is that they are about optimising existing agriculture using modern technology.

Tilray, where I am on the board, is a publicly listed Canadian company that grows, processes, and distributes hemp and cannabis products.  I learned about the efficacy of medical cannabis through close friends who have been able to improve their quality of life through the use of medical cannabis. The applications are wide-ranging – from pain management to epilepsy. It has had a significant impact on me.

The Hemp plant, which is in the same family as cannabis, produces seeds and what are called “hemp hearts”, protein-rich superfoods in the same category as chia, flaxseed or chickpeas. The world is moving quickly towards plant-based proteins and healthy oils. Hemp is right on-trend.

Tilray is a pioneer in Cannabis and Hemp. It is still ‘day one’ for the industry, but the company is well-positioned for the significant growth which lies ahead.

Many trade houses have been investing in start-ups in high-growth areas, while at the same time running their legacy trading businesses. Does starting with a blank page give you an advantage?

Yes, although it has been a massive advantage having the understanding and appreciation of traditional agriculture and food. Those traditional value chains will still dominate the way we produce and consume food for many years. These other areas will initially develop in parallel, but they will eventually converge.

Do publicly quoted trading companies have more of an incentive than private companies to seek growth in new areas?

Public companies have to balance short-term results with long term strategy and investment. There can be a conflict between these two goals, whatever sector you are in. The cyclicality in agriculture and food can amplify this pressure, which is why many try to diversify into more added value activities.

Being public does have its advantages. You can access capital in a way that you can’t when you are private. As long as your investors understand what you are about, and they know the industry, being public does not have to be negative.

I am concerned that investors are looking to ‘revolutionise’ agriculture without realising that agriculture has been in a state of continual revolution for the past 75 years. Won’t investors in these new sectors ultimately be disappointed?

Over the past 75 years, the focus has been on increasing agricultural yields, while at the same time reducing costs. It has been about growing enough calories.

We still want to grow enough calories, but we now want to develop the right kind of calories in a way that doesn’t harm the environment, repairs the soil and produces nutrient-dense food.

It is a new revolution: using technology to find ways to improve existing production techniques and to regenerate soils. If you haven’t already read it, I recommend the book An Agricultural Testament by Howard Albert. It was first published in 1940 and explained the power of regenerative practices known already then. Imagine those ideas powered with current technology. The goal is to harness the power of ‘Production Ag’ without all the adverse side effects.

Will farmers buy into this?

Yes. Farmers love what they do, and they love their land.  Contrary to popular opinion, farmers are open to change. When you present them with a suitable alternative, they will go for it. The Locus-Nori deal is an example of that.

Up until now, many farmers have not had many other choices than improving yields and lowering costs. There is a way forward where farmers can get the results they need while consumers get the quality of calories they want. It is about producing sustainable, nutrient-dense products.

That’s one side of it. The other side is that investors are looking at the interface between food and health – the notion that you are only as healthy as the food that you eat.

The 15 to 35 age bracket is driving this movement; they will ultimately dictate the future of agriculture. There is a lot still to be done. There is room for a lot of investment, and the future is full of promise.

Thank you, Soren, for your time and inputs! And good luck with your presentation to the Geneva Grain Conference!

© Commodity Conversations ®

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

For the first time in its 169-year history, Louis Dreyfus will receive funds from an outside investor as the chairwoman agreed to sell a 45% stake to ADQ, an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund. The deal included a long-term contract to supply commodities to the UAE which could make Dreyfus “the champion of food and agri-supply in the Middle East”, a consultant noted. Louis Dreyfus has been looking for partners for a while to repay some of its debts and had engaged in negotiations with Glencore and Bunge.

This would not be the first time a government fund invests in a major agricultural trade house, as Singapore’s Temasek Holdings is the majority owner of Olam International while the country’s sovereign wealth fund is the largest shareholder in Bunge. Moreover, the coronavirus pandemic accelerated efforts by countries dependent on food imports looking to be more self-sufficient. Abu Dhabi’s investment in Louis Dreyfus will be accompanied by a series of partnerships to study the production of food in desert climates. NanoRacks announced that it will create a space research center in the desert country to develop agricultural practices in extreme weather conditions. 

Unilever suggested that it was in no hurry to resume advertising on Facebook and Twitter, as the firm left the social media platforms back in July. A director explained that alternatives like Snapchat, Pinterest and YouTube were showing promising results. Unilever is also launching its first pet care products, starting with a launch in Brazil – the second-largest pet market after the US. For its part, Nestle is betting on the rising demand for environmentally-friendly pet food and is launching a line of Purina made with insect proteins

Data published this week confirmed that Brazil’s carbon emissions were up 9.6% on year in 2019, mostly due to the accelerating deforestation. The country was able to reduce emissions in 2004-12 and keep them stable in 2018. Brazil has a great potential to reduce its emissions, although the current government is not expected to push for the right policies. In addition, the new US President is not expected to prioritise trade negotiations with Brazil. The Democratic President-elect is expected to follow the EU’s example and include provisions to protect the environment in any new trade deal which could put Brazil at a disadvantage. The US could also join the list of importers looking to impose tariffs on countries or products linked to deforestation, a Brazilian lawmaker said.

A new study published in the Science Journal estimated that agricultural emissions alone are on track to stop us from meeting the climate goals under the Paris Agreement. The main reason is the increase in consumption, both on the individual and global levels, along with a shift towards more animal-based products. At the same time, a study conducted in Ireland showed that current policies were not effectively addressing rising rates of obesity and other non-communicable diseases. 

Experts argue that a lower food consumption overall, along with a lower consumption of meat, would address both climate and health problems. This is increasing the appeal of a meat tax. The UK Health Alliance on Climate Change (UKHACC) argued that if food producers were unable to voluntarily act to reduce the consumption of meat by 2025, the government should step in with a tax. A professor said such a tax would highlight the link between planetary and human health. 

Another popular idea is to implement labels outlining the carbon impact of food products. Restaurant chains in the US are experimenting with the solution, while food producers are also looking at the idea. Some suggested this could create a whole new type of diet, possibly called “climatarians”. The concept is not so straightforward though, as Tesco found out when it shelved its plan back in 2012. Measuring the carbon impact of food has become simpler since, but nuances remain that will be hard to convey on a label. For one, the seasonality of ingredients used is key to measure the carbon impact. 

With Thanksgiving approaching in the US, restaurants are preparing to honour to new President by focusing on what he has called “the best sandwich in America”: Capriotti’s Bobbie sandwich with turkey, stuffing, and cranberry sauce. It almost sounds as delicious as the famous “moist-maker”: Monica Gellar’s Thanksgiving left-over sandwich. 

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

A conversation with Olumide Famakinwa

Good morning, Olumide. Can you tell me a little about yourself?

I am Nigerian, and I live in Lagos. I have a background in Economics, spending 17 years in banking, majorly financing small and medium businesses. I saw that there was a need in Nigeria to build capacity (Institutional and Infrastructure) for our country’s grain sector in West Africa – to make sustainable structures to increase trade within Africa and other markets, and I left banking to set up a consultancy company called Firstling.

Its goal is to facilitate trade, to improve the supply chain through better access to financing, better logistics and industrial investment – adding value in rice, wheat and soya in particular, as well as other critical commodities.

I am quite passionate about Public-Private Partnership models and structures as a panacea for spurring growth and development in Sub-Saharan Africa.

I am also an executive director in Cargo Marketing, a fifty-year-old company that handles cargo logistics and also involved in warehousing and other supply chain services.

Is the government supportive in helping you facilitate trade?

Not as much as we would like. There is a considerable gap; our government could do so much more in creating an enabling environment for trade facilitation.

On an international level, the African Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) should come into force next year. It should, over time, drive an increase in intra-African trade and services and act as a vehicle for West Africa to catch up with Southern and Eastern Africa. It should be the catalyst that we have been waiting for in terms of aligning policies over tariffs, documentation, standardization and certification. It will foster integration and facilitate inter-African trade, especially for agribusiness. It could be transformational.

We are also excited about the possibility of Nigeria’s Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala becoming the new Director-General of the World Trade Organization. If she is selected, she will be the first woman, and the first African, to lead the institution. She understands Africa and the challenges we face, and she is well-suited to turn the searchlight on Africa and trigger support to overcome challenges trade-related.

Unfortunately, the US is for the moment holding up her appointment, but we are keeping our fingers crossed that her appointment will go through.

What are the biggest challenges that you face in your day to day business?

Lack of physical infrastructure: the road network and the seaports need to be updated to international standards to meet and increase import and export capabilities

Lack of skill and technical know-how: there is tremendous scope for improving or digitalizing the whole trade process in terms of IT, documentation process and generating/analysing data. We have to improve our systems across the spectrum.

Lack of capital: fixing the gaps in physical and knowledge infrastructure would give financiers more confidence and increase the availability of capital. More like asking, which comes first, chicken or the egg?

We need 10 -15-year consistent long-term funding to invest in the infrastructure necessary to build capacity for the medium and long term effect, but getting that is a challenge.

There is a tremendous opportunity here. Africa can leapfrog existing technology, and, in that sense, we are better placed that many parts of the developed world that have a pool of existing and limited ability to expand infrastructure. The developed markets are quite saturated, and diminishing returns might have set in.

If Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is appointed, what would be the first thing that she should do?

She should bring all African countries together to push for the right political will to implement the AFCFTA. We have everything that we need in terms of raw materials and natural resources; what we are lacking is the political will to realize our potential. She has to get political leaders to dismantle various bottlenecks and drive the private sector to operate optimally

What messages will you try to get across when you address the Geneva Grain Conference?

 Most markets around the world now are what I would call ‘mature’ markets. Whether you look at it from the production or the consumption side, African markets are not mature. That gives us all a tremendous opportunity to invest and to build the necessary infrastructure for production and distribution, and at the same time to develop consuming markets.

My main message will be that we all have to look at the African market from a different perspective. We have to re-evaluate the risks and how we manage them. For me, diversification is the key to manage risk across the whole grain value chain. And of course, we have to look at what has worked and what hasn’t worked. We have to learn from that.

My second message is that there is a big focus now within Africa on healthy living and diet. Our population is consistently growing, and so also is our middle class. Africa is a vast market and a huge opportunity, but local knowledge is essential as each country is different. So, my final message to investors, partners and interested stakeholders would be to think local but to act global!

Thank you Olumide and good luck with your presentation!

© Commodity Conversations ®

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Meat packers in the US are investing millions to accelerate the automation of plants. The CEO of JBS, the world’s biggest meat processor, explained that labour shortages have been an ongoing issue for the industry even before the pandemic, but current health and safety issues have been an accelerator. A food scientist told Deep Dive that some of the challenges, however, include the need for robots to be able to distinguish colours. Besides, animals have significant “biological variations,” meaning that two chicken can have different wing sizes, something which is very difficult for robots to handle. To make sure they don’t miss out on any new technology, Cargill’s Protein and Animal Health said they are working closely with innovators in Silicon Valley. 

Taking it a step further, Tyson obtained a waiver from the USDA allowing it to use its own staff and a system of cameras and computers to partially replace federal inspectors at its beef plant in Kansas. The USDA already eased inspections in the poultry and pork sectors over the past few years, with an analyst telling Reuters that this would allow inspectors to focus on more complicated issues like animal welfare and food safety. Some activists warn, however, that data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show foodborne diseases are on the rise.

Tyson also rolled out infrared body temperature scanners at all of its plants to slow the coronavirus spread. On the other hand, two whistleblowers have accused JBS of making employees without health insurance pay USD 100 for a COVID-19 test. A legal expert argued that the company should have covered the costs.  

A failed trial by Walmart suggests that not all automation is useful. The company announced it would stop using the autonomous shelf-scanning robots it had been trying out for the past 3 years to monitor inventory.  Walmart said that the robots were awkward for shoppers and that they were not adapted to the massive shift to online shopping. While this may be good news in terms of jobs, the CEO of Unilever warned that the worst of the economic impact of the pandemic is yet to be felt. He urged companies to invest in upgrading the skills of their workers to anticipate massive job losses. 

Nestle bought the remaining stake in meal delivery company Freshly last week for USD 950 million and a potential USD 550 million earnout. Freshly is currently delivering over 1 million meals every week, which should increase threefold following the acquisition. An analyst said that Freshly will allow Nestle to deliver more of its products directly to consumers, a growing trend across the industry. 

ADM, meanwhile, identified five major food trends as the world adjusts to the pandemic. It found that consumers are increasingly looking for nutrition which is good for both “the body and mind,” notably with a focus on nutrients that are good for digestion. Sustainability and transparency are also a growing concern, ADM noted. 

Major beverage companies are in a race to design a paper bottle that can replace the existing plastic bottles. Coca-Cola announced its first paper bottle prototype, although it still contains a liner and closure made from recycled plastic. It is now working on a prototype that doesn’t have the plastic liner. The company, as well as competitors like Pepsi, hope to roll out paper bottles next year. The timing is right: scientists in Australia estimate that there is 14.4 million mt of microplastics at the bottom of the seas, twice as much plastic as there is on the oceans’ surface. One researcher explained that “The deep ocean is a sink for microplastics,” all of which risked showing up further down in our food chain. 

The Michelin Guide, too, recognised the importance of a sustainable food supply chain when it launched the Michelin Green Star back in June. Some seven chefs have already been awarded for their “sustainable gastronomy.” In France, however, chefs are warning that the new lockdown measures could drastically transform the country’s culinary landscape as standalone establishments struggle to cope and threaten to close. France’s gastronomic heritage needs to be protected by UNESCO, one of the chefs argued.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

A Conversation with Dave Hightower

Dave, thank you for taking the time to speak with me. You began the Hightower Report back in 1990. What are biggest changes that you have seen in the markets since then?

 When I started the company, China was relatively unimportant in the world grain markets. It is now the most important factor in terms of price and flows.

Back in 1990, the markets were still very US-focused, and still driven principally by the fundamentals of each particular commodity. Since then the markets have become global and have lost much of that focus on the US.

Globalization has also meant that markets now often move together, in unison. Ethanol has played a role in this: corn and beans are now energy commodities; there is a good correlation between the prices of crude oil, beans and corn.

Traders don’t always pay enough attention to outside markets. The price of oil is a major factor, but you also have to look at currencies and the stock market – are we, for example, going into deflation?

All this means that you can’t just look at the supply and demand of, say, beans, in isolation. You have to take into account a lot of other factors. So that has been the biggest change.

Are the fundamentals still important?

Very much so. The advent of the hedge funds has increased short-term volatility, but in the medium- to long-term, market price will always go to its fundamental value.

What are the main issues now in the grain markets?

We are coming out of a period of over-supply and going into a period of tighter supply. The trade had assumed that we would have multi-year surpluses, but we have slowly transitioned into lower stocks. In the corn market we have seen China liquidate huge strategic stocks – corn that was really old. They are now in a phase of rebuilding their stocks, and we are expecting them to hold bigger stocks than in the past, largely to protect themselves from future supply shocks, for example from a pandemic.

China has already purchased 71 percent of what they promised to buy under the first phase of their US trade deal. They will probably complete what they promised by the end of the year, but they may buy more depending on how much they want to rebuild their strategic stocks.

We are seeing China buying a lot of everything at the moment: crude; natural gas; copper; zinc etc. China’s GDP may grow 5.5 percent this year – that’s relatively slow compared to the past – but their economy is switching focus from exports to domestic consumption. That means that they will buy differently than in the past.

China is not going to buy agricultural commodities because of US pressure; China is going to buy or not buy either because they need it or because the price is attractive to them. In any case, it is not what China buys from the US that is important, it is what China buys globally.

US farmers have received record subsidies this year. Will that continue?

It will be a question of priorities. With the pandemic, there are now a lot of politically more important groups that are lobbying for financial help. The pandemic has increased the need for government spending and reprioritized where it is going. Unless crop prices fall so low that we start to see farm bankruptcies, I think that there will be less subsidies for farmers next year.

Remember that US farmers have had difficulty in promoting ethanol in the face of the oil lobby; the farmers have lost some of their political clout.

What will you be focusing on in your presentation at the Geneva Grain Conference?

I will be looking at the tail end of the Southern Hemisphere crops and then set the scene for the next cycle in the Northern Hemisphere. I will be concentrating on the fundamental S&D.

I will be very specific on the price outlook – where I believe prices will be going over the next six months to a year – and on the timing of future moves.

Thank you, Dave for your time and good luck with your presentation.

 © Commodity Conversations ®

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Extreme and unpredictable weather conditions across the world, combined with supply chain disruptions and stockpiling caused by the coronavirus, are pushing up the price of many essential crops. The US, Russia and parts of the EU are facing extremely dry weather, while Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia have seen crops destroyed by storms and floods. The situation is even more complex when you factor in the sharp drop in the commercial flights which usually collect weather data. Meteorologists warn that they are struggling to make weather forecasts as a result. 

At the same time, China is maintaining its buying spree. The country is expected to issue additional corn import quotas to replenish reserves and meet feed demand for the growing hog population, according to sources who said COFCO was already benefiting from an additional quota. The surge in Chinese demand is also helping other trade houses like the US-based Scoular. The 128-year-old group has reported a spike in sorghum shipments since the Phase One trade deal was signed in February. And ADM sold the first shipment of US rice to China. The California-grown rice was unloaded in China this week and marks the culmination of a decade of regulatory and political work.

The food sector is in a much better place to deal with further coronavirus waves as it has set up systems to shift the food usually delivered to restaurants and caterers to retail stores. Besides, the head of ADM highlighted that being a global company provided clear advantages to deal with a worldwide pandemic. Highlighting ADM’s 118-year history, he mentioned: “That’s what our company does: it adjusts constantly”. Health experts are not so confident about the meat packing sector in the US, however, despite claims by JBS and Perdue Farms that they are prepared for further outbreaks. The major risk factor remains the speed of processing lines, while most plants are still running at the high rates authorised by an emergency decree.

While the first wave of stockpiling was categorised by a focus on comfort food and trusted brands, Nestle noted that consumers were now focusing on healthier purchases. The firm’s health-science unit reported better than expected sales thanks to a growth in demand for vitamins, minerals and supplements. Unilever reported a similar trend and has been working on making some of its products healthier. To be sure, people are still buying comfort food and Unilever revealed that sales of at-home ice cream had fully offset the drop in out-of-home sales.​

Not to be outdone, ADM’s health department said it would increase the production of probiotics five-fold thanks in part to the expansion of a factory in Valencia, Spain. Bayer, meanwhile, signed a USD 4 billion deal to buy Asklepios BioPharmaceutical. The gene therapy firm is looking to use a harmless virus to deliver “genetic repair kits”. 

Further out in the field of future food science, the debate is growing on whether lab-grown meat will ever be able to compete with traditional meat or its more direct rival, plant-based meat. Sceptics highlight that cost and perception will remain the main challenges for widespread adoption. Nonetheless, some firms are reportedly making lab-grown beef patties for just EUR 9, compared to the EUR 250,000 it took for the first experiment in 2013. The sharp drop in cost is similar, or even faster, than the scaling of the Internet and other digital technologies. One analysis suggested that Moore’s Law could be a good way to predict the future of the sector. 

The head of Impossible Foods certainly has a strong opinion on the subject as he argued that cultured meat is “never going to be a thing. I’d put any amount of money on that.” The cost involved makes the technology much more suited for therapeutic use, he added. Nonetheless, some 80 start-ups are currently studying lab-grown meat and one hopes to launch seafood products made from fish cells in mid-2021. Another group, Israeli-based Aleph Farm, is focusing on using its cell-based 3D bioprinting meat platform in space. After a successful test on the International Space Station, the firm is now partnering with space agencies to develop a solution suitable for Mars. 

Some promising progress is also being made to make traditional meat production more sustainable. Aemetis announced that it had started producing biogas from the methane collected at two dairy operations. The renewable natural gas is then processed into fuel ethanol at a Keyes, California, plant. The group hopes to expand the project to 17 dairies next year.

Amid all this talk of potential food disruptions, Oreo fans can rest easy as Mondelez built a vault to protect the cookie from disasters, including an asteroid that is expected to pass close to the Earth in November. Called the Global Oreo Vault, the facility is built right next to the Global Seed Vault in Svalbard, Norway. 

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

A Conversation with Chris von Zastrow

 

(Chris recently retired from Starbucks where he was coffee sustainability director. All views are his own and not necessarily those of Starbucks.)

Good morning Chris. Thank you for taking the time to chat. I think you grew up on a coffee farm. Can you tell me a little about that?

My father managed coffee farms in Kenya and Tanzania before buying his own farm on the slopes of Kilimanjaro in Tanganyika (Tanzania) in 1959. I was born in Kenya in 1953, and apart from my time in boarding schools in Tanzania, Ethiopia and England, the farm was my home until I was 19 years old.

We had 150 acres (60 hectares), but soils were poor and the land rocky. Mechanization wasn’t possible, and all the work was done manually. Operating costs were horrendous. We grew arabica coffee under rather heavy Gravilea robusta shade canopy, as was the custom at the time. The coffee was sold through the local auction system. There were very few direct sales back then.

My parents’ farm was nationalised in October 1973.

What are the main environmental challenges that now face coffee production?

Climate change.  Areas that were good for coffee 20-30 years ago are now becoming marginal. Coffee production is tending to move higher up mountains, especially smallholder production in Central America, but also in Colombia, Peru and Ecuador. This leads to deforestation – in many cases deforestation of primary forests, which in turn leads to changes in weather patterns, landslides, long-term soil infertility, etc.

Water is another challenge. Washed coffee uses a lot of water. I don’t believe that we should necessarily be retaining the washed coffee method; it can have quite a negative impact on the environment and water quality. Although washed coffees certainly tend to be much better in the cup, I do believe there are alternative methods such as pulped naturals or de-mucilaging machines that use much less water.

What are the main issues on the social side?

I would say child labour, and that goes back to general economic issues and poverty levels in producing communities. Low coffee prices haven’t helped.  The kids are working on the farms due to the high poverty levels in coffee communities; adult workers are unable to achieve sufficient income levels to feed and educate their families. They have no choice but to send their children into the fields to make up the deficit.

If you stop the kids from working, you are taking food away from desperately poor families. This is a problem that many coffee producing countries are confronted with – and not just in Africa. If consumers want to enjoy a product, then a living-wage price needs to be paid that can help alleviate the problems. Consumers can’t just mandate that there is no child labour without providing and supporting alternatives. The underlying issues need to be tackled.

That brings us on to economic sustainability…

Prior to the lapsing of the International Coffee Agreement (ICA) in 1989, the minimum trading reference price the ICA sought to protect through the quota system was $1.15 per pound; from a relative purchasing power perspective, that would be the equivalent today of around $2.45. The C market price currently is $1.10 – $1.20 per pound. That said, differentials have improved, but nowhere near enough to make up the difference.

In spite of all the aid, social and economic programmes that have over the years been implemented in producing countries by industry and governments, coffee farmers are half as well off today as they were 30 years ago.

Admittedly, they have found ways of cutting their costs, such as higher use of relatively cheaper pesticides, herbicides, etc. to increase production – not healthy for humans, wildlife biodiversity or the environment.

The wealth in the coffee supply chain now sits with the trade houses, the roasters, and the coffee shops. It’s not at the farmer level.

What coffee do you drink now?

Starbucks coffee of course! I make it in a French press or in a stove-top espresso. I enjoy House Blend, and particularly the single origin coffees from Guatemala, Ethiopia and Colombia.

Thank you, Chris for your time and input!

 © Commodity Conversations ®

This is an extract of an interview from my upcoming book Crop to Cup – Conversations over Coffee to be published later this year.

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

The EU’s agriculture ministers agreed this week that 20% of the new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) budget which will kick in 2023 should be used for environmentally friendly farming. However, the proposal still has to be voted by Parliament and environmentalists complained that the amount was much too low and translated into massive ongoing subsidies for traditional agriculture. The EU Parliament is also due to vote on a bill proposing that terms such as “sausages” and “burgers” could only be used for products containing meat, even when used with words such as “style” and “like.” An analysis by the BBC said this would take the 3-year old ban on terms like “soya milk” and “vegan cheese” one step further. 

The WWF, meanwhile, is advocating moving away from the meat vs plant debate towards a “Planet-based diet.” The idea is to focus on consuming foods that are produced locally and sustainably while providing us with our nutritional needs. The organisation points out that biodiversity loss is caused by different factors depending on the geography and that advocating for a vegan diet doesn’t make sense everywhere in the world. To help us make the right choices, the WWF designed a Planet-Based Diets Impact and Action Calculator. 

Going local is not on top of governments’ priorities right now, as they focus on ensuring they have sufficient food supply. An analyst explained that consumers and supermarkets have switched from “just-in-time” inventory management to “just-in-case”  in the anticipation of supply disruptions due to the coronavirus. The Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex rallied 20% since June as countries such as China, but also in the Middle East and Africa, stepped up purchases. The additional demand is helping farmers, notably in the US where producers have also benefited from higher buying from China under the Phase One trade deal. Another element contributing to the income of US farmers is the record high USD 51 billion in federal aid they will have received this year, an analysis by Reuters showed. The aid should amount to about a third of farm income in 2020, which will overall be higher than in 2019. 

Danone, which lost a quarter of its market value in 2020, could divest from businesses worth as much as EUR 500 million (USD 592 million) in revenue, as well as downsize some units by up to a third, the CEO said. Bloomberg Intelligence suggested that the company didn’t have much of a choice but to shed assets, arguing that Danone was “way behind the curve.” He added that this would not be enough and the group may need to sell more businesses, including some of its water brands. 

This is exactly what Nestle is doing. Sources say that the group is looking for bids for its North American water brands which have been losing market share. Analysts estimate that the brands could be sold for anywhere between USD 3-5 billion. On the other hand hand, the CEO said he is planning to keep premium brands like Perrier and San Pellegrino. 

The Coca-Cola Company said the coronavirus had contributed to accelerating its portfolio review. It announced it would stop producing a number of drinks, such as Coca-Cola Life, to free resources for higher-margin products. The virus also fast-tracked changes that were taking place in the group’s marketing strategy – an official explained that they were now focusing on more “meaningful” advertising

The CEO of Unilever warned, meanwhile, that more and more companies were making sustainability commitments to appeal to consumers without any plans to stick to them, also known as “woke-washing.” Ironically, he made the comment just as Greenpeace accused Unilever of “greenwashing.” The NGO conceded that the group has been vocal about becoming more sustainable but argued it needed to do much more. 

A study looking at several carnivore species in the US Midwest found that predators were getting close to half of their food from humans, by eating through garbage, foraging fields and even eating pets. One of the scientists told Wired that the presence of corn in their systems revealed the source of their food, explaining that “Human foods look like corn, because we give corn to everything.” 

Going back to the subject of eating locally, the coronavirus-led surge in gardening has caused a shortage of Mason jars in the US. Many people have used the time at home to plant food stuff which they have been canning for preservation, causing the shortage in canning containers. A jar merchant called it “Sourdough 2.0.”

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.