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The changes in food habits caused by the coronavirus over the past four months are starting to have an impact – growers can no longer rely on predictable consumption trends when making planting decisions. One big winner has been Canadian durum wheat as the surge in pasta, flour and cereal purchases pushed prices to a three-year high. The situation was compounded by bad weather and a drop in output in Europe and North Africa. A Canadian industry member noted that as a result, “If you eat couscous in Casablanca, you’re probably eating Saskatchewan durum wheat.”

Not every product has benefited from the shift in consumer demand, however. Meat, cheese and butter, for example, tend to be used much more in restaurants than in home cooking. In California, a farmer was forced to destroy his lettuce crop because of the drop in restaurant demand. But restaurateurs are not giving up on their business model and are looking for new systems to adapt. Some are combining the concept of ghost kitchens – restaurants that only serve for delivery – with outdoor food halls to create “ghost food halls”. 

For the moment, online delivery continues to be the most obvious alternative in times of social distancing. In China, Starbucks expanded its partnerships with Alibaba to allow more consumers the option to pre-order drinks via mobile apps. But the surge in online orders is starting to have an impact on online prices which have gone up 4.2% over the last six months, data from Adobe Inc showed. The inflation pushed digital purchasing power into negative numbers for the first time. 

Many firms are also hitting a limit on capacity, like Campbell Soup which is facing manufacturing challenges after the demand for ready-to-eat soup surged 140%. One solution we mentioned last week has been to reduce the number of products on offer. Nestle announced that it was looking to sell its water business in China. The company previously said it might sell water brands in North America and the Chinese Yinlu Foods business. Similarly, Coca-Cola said it would stop selling what the CEO calls “zombie brands”, starting with Odwalla juices. For its part, Pepsi was able to weather the coronavirus downturn in the second quarter thanks to its wider product diversification, as it also owns Quaker Oats Company and Frito-Lay. 

The recent surge in online shopping and the simplification of product ranges were actually part of an ongoing long-term shift in the food supply, according to the experts at IDEO. As such, the coronavirus is not really “new information. It’s more of a reveal”, a consultant argued. The pandemic is also accelerating other ongoing changes, like the focus on regional food and farmers’ markets, along with a growing concern for working conditions in the food industry. 

The virus has highlighted the risks of animal diseases spreading to humans and the need to protect wildlife, according to a director at Danone. He suggested that our current system was “broken” although he was optimistic that shareholders and consumers would embrace a new approach based on sustainability. Danone was the first firm to entrench environmental laws in its official rules based on a 2019 French law. 

Cargill has also been busy reducing the impact of its operations around the world. In northeast Brazil, it has partnered with the Omega windfarm to supply port terminals in Bahia and Para with renewable energy. Cargill also unveiled a new water management practice to help make agriculture more regenerative. And in Zanzibar, Cargill is partnering with the Nature Conservancy to provide guidelines for algae farmers. When done correctly, algae farming can have a positive impact on water quality and wildlife habitat, a spokesperson highlighted. 

KFC is making progress on its effort to offer more meat alternatives as it announced that it will collaborate with Russia’s 3D Bioprinting Solutions to print chicken meat using cells and plant material. Although more environmentally friendly, the final chicken will still contain meat. Meanwhile, KFC’s fully plant-based fried chicken is being offered in more restaurants across the US. The chicken is made by Beyond Meat. 

In the same vein, Burger King is advertising beef made from cows that emit 33% less methane, thanks to the introduction of lemongrass in their diet. While the idea of modifying a cow’s diet to lower methane emissions has shown promising results, experts noted that the Burger King claim was not yet backed by peer-reviewed science. The move was still welcomed, however, as Burger King starts by accepting that “we are part of the problem”. 

Lastly this week, we recommend watching the “fascinating but useless” experiment conducted by an Australian marathon runner. He ate only tinned beans for the 40 days leading up to a 50km ultra-marathon. Besides showing his love for beans, the experiment was most revealing as it deprived him of a source of creative expression. It also gave him terrible wind, obviously. 

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Brazil’s private sector is putting pressure on the government to act and protect the Amazon from deforestation. Some of the country’s main corporations sent a letter to the President saying that concern over the Amazon was driving foreign investment away. Brazil’s poor environmental image is also being used against it in trade discussions, such as the in EU-Mercosur deal. The Ministry of Economy denied that investments were falling, noting a 26% increase in investments in 2019. It also argued that Brazil was one of the countries that did the most to protect its environment, with 60% of the territory preserved, almost twice that of the US and Canada. 

One of the companies involved in the letter, Cosan, argued that protecting the Amazon would help Brazil become more competitive. This comes as Brazil’s agribusiness exports reached a record high for the month of June, with sales up 25% on year. Most of the increase is due to a surge in soybeans exports to China, but sugar and ethanol exports combined increased by 75% on year. The head of Cosan said he had spoken with the President to work on a campaign to improve the country’s image. 

In China, the possibility that the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges may start to require disclosure of environmental, social and governance (ESG) information at some point this year could be a big step forward for the use of sustainable palm oil. A researcher explained that although China is the world’s third-biggest consumer of palm oil, there is very little consumer awareness in the country. Palm oil is almost always consumed within another product, notably in instant noodles, and is usually labelled as “vegetable oil.” As such, while the country’s main palm oil importers do trade certified palm oil, they mostly don’t import it into China as no one is willing to pay a premium for it. Palm oil has recently been displacing soy oil which has become more expensive due to the trade war with the US but also because the soybean meal industry, from which it was a by-product, collapsed with the African Swine Fever. 

A conservation professor noted, however, that while most of the world seems to have agreed that palm oil is bad and coconut oil is good, coconut palm trees threaten many more species than palm. This is because coconut grows in areas with far more biodiversity. Data from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature showed that, for every million tonnes of oil produced, coconut threatens over 20.2 species, followed by olive oil with 4.1 species and palm with 3.8 species. He argued that the solution was not to discriminate one oil over another but for each oil to be produced in the most sustainable way possible. 

Some of the world’s multinational food companies are reducing their product ranges to cut the costs of maintaining stocks in this new era of online grocery shopping. Mondelez, for one, announced it would shelve 25% of its products. The CEO said, “we have too many flavours, too many sizes.” Similarly, General Mills is reducing by almost half its range of soups. The CEO explained that websites could not host as many options as supermarkets so it did not make sense to have that many varieties of the same product any more. 

Another big change at Unilever is the group’s decision to put carbon footprint labels on every one of their products. An analyst noted that, a decade ago, Tesco had also tried, and failed. But he argued that Unilever’s tight supply chain would make the data collecting process more feasible. All they need now is an independent carbon labelling standard. 

Cattle ranchers frustrated with the meat labelling standards in the US are working on selling their meat directly to consumers under their own brand, a trend that has been accelerated by the coronavirus. They complain that meat that has been processed or packaged in the US can get the ‘Made in the USA’ label even if the animal was not born in the US. Congress is looking into making it easier for smaller slaughterhouses to operate but cattle ranchers say the cost of setting up is still prohibitive and it is unclear whether consumers are willing to pay a premium. Three groups control close to 60% of the US’ beef industry and, as of 2019, 12 plants processed over half of the country’s cattle. 

If you thought the issue of food labels was not complicated enough, pet owners are now getting worried that misleading labelling on feed bags could be contributing to their pet’s obesity. An estimated 100 million pets are overweight in the US and a law firm is looking for complainants to build a class-action lawsuit against a major pet food manufacturer. They argue that the suggested portions are deliberately based on a working dog’s needs, whereas most pets don’t do much more than relax at home.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

The World Bank’s International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) are being accused of falling short of their climate change commitments. An investigation by The Guardian and the Bureau of Investigative Journalism found that the banks had invested some USD 2.6 billion in large-scale livestock and dairy companies over the last decade. At the same time, the World Bank was involved in a new multisectoral report released last week recommending reducing beef and dairy consumption which account for 41% and 20% respectively of total agricultural emissions. The banks defended themselves, saying that the investments were to improve food security in poorer countries. Analysts, however, argued that a big part of the investments were made in rich countries, saying this was “not […]  justifiable.”

The apparent conflict between food security and climate change is exemplified in Indonesia where the government announced a plan to set up a 164,000ha agricultural estate in Borneo to ensure sufficient domestic food supply. The targeted area would require further land clearing, environmentalists warned, adding that the crops the government wants to grow, such as rice, are unsuited for the dry area and could lead to fires. 

To accommodate these increasingly complex scenarios, the Rainforest Alliance announced it was changing its certification system. The NGO said that certification was facing “much bigger challenges” because climate change was worsening social inequalities. The new certification will require its members to have a more proactive role in identifying and controlling their supply chain, in exchange for a mandatory premium. 

Food corporations, meanwhile, are looking at technology to help accelerate the process. Nestle joined The China Food Tech Hub, a consortium of 15 members, including Mars, Coca-Cola and Ferrero, designed to accelerate innovation in food by putting together multinational companies with startups. The areas of interest include plant-based protein and cell culture as consumers are increasingly concerned with their health, an official from the Tech Hub said. 

Unilever has tied up with Alibaba to use the Chinese company’s artificial intelligence and data on consumer behaviour for its digital marketing. Unilever explained that consumers’ buying patterns are changing very fast, adding that this was part of an intention to “reduce marketing waste.” This also comes at a time when Unilever joined several other companies, including Coca-Cola and Starbucks, in boycotting Facebook advertising for the way it’s been handling hate speech. Also in China, Walmart tied up with blockchain group Varcode, whose technology helps identify food that has gone bad. 

Cargill, meanwhile, tied up with Burger King and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) in a grasslands restoration program. The idea is to reseed some 8,000acres of marginal cropland in Montana and South Dakota in the US, transforming the areas into diverse grasslands with the beef’s grazing as part of the ecosystem. Cargill also announced it had managed to completely trace its Brazilian soybeans supply chain, with several other countries to follow through by the end of the year. The group’s GPS data points enable it to identify the land of origin of the soybean it purchases, thereby ensuring it comes from land that was not recently deforested. An NGO complained, however, that “recent” was a relative term. COFCO International, meanwhile, said it was planning for its soybean supply chain to be fully traceable by 2023. 

In the EU, farmers are asking the Commission to ease rules on agriculture drones. They argue that the drone’s precision technology will help meet the bloc’s Farm to Fork strategy, which involves halving the use of pesticides. DroneDeploy, which is based in the US where the use of commercial drones has been allowed since the end of 2016, argues that the data generated from drones is also very valuable, helping farmers make better decisions with regards to their crops. 

In Brazil’s Mato Grosso, for instance, UISA and Vivo have tied up to cover some 90,000ha of sugarcane area with Internet connection by setting up 4G towers. The system will facilitate the control of self driven technologies as well as streamline data collection, which was previously done offline. A company official explained that this would improve the efficiency of both machines and people, thereby reducing cost. Similarly, a trial on a sugarcane farm in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal showed that using drones instead of helicopters to apply ripener, as is traditionally the case, led to a 1% increase in sugar recovery, which could translate into significantly higher revenues for farmers. 

Last but not least, you will probably have noticed how polarising the debate about whether to wear or mask or not has become. This can have some very real repercussions in food shopping aisles, as these videos aggregated by Eater show.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

The UK’s environment secretary said that food supply would not be an issue in case it has to leave the EU without a trade deal by January 2021. He explained that the supply chain proved to be “remarkably resilient” during the coronavirus pandemic. Besides, the food industry was able to find enough labourers thanks to the “Pick for Britain” campaign, ensuring there weren’t any significant disruptions in Britain’s food supply.

British farmers seem to be more concerned about what concessions the government would offer as part of trade negotiations with the US and EU. A new advisory group was launched to protect agricultural interests and make sure food and welfare standards are not compromised. 

Nevertheless, some UK lawmakers called for a reclassification of gene editing technology like CRISPR, which was classified under the same regulations as GMOs by the EU. A UK official argued that gene editing was merely “an extension of conventional plant breeding”. The National Farmers Union agreed, while another organisation warned that loosening the rules would make it much harder to reach a trade deal with the EU. 

As it slowly but steadily recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, China has been ramping up its purchases of agricultural products. Imports of US products, however, are still far behind the targets set under the phase one trade agreement, while US sanctions imposed in response to Hong Kong’s new security law could further deteriorate trade relations. China also took the surprising decision to ban imports from Tyson Foods following the COVID-19 outbreaks in meat plants. US exporters were asked to provide certificates to prove their food was not contaminated, something one company argued was “not based on any legitimate food safety concern”.

China’s demand for protein was boosted by the impact of the African Swine Fever and Brazil’s export sector has been reaping the benefits, in part thanks to bumper crops and the depreciation of the Real. Firms geared for exports are doing relatively well but a Cargill executive noted that the opposite was true for firms focusing on the domestic market. Consumers are starting to cut down on food expenses as the coronavirus continues to spread. The government, meanwhile, is trying to balance the need to contain the disease, protect food workers, and the importance of its food sector.

In neighbouring Argentina, the government took drastic action earlier this month when it unveiled an expropriation plan to revive the bankrupt Vicentin, once one of the largest grain exporters in the country. Sources said this would stop Glencore’s plan of purchasing a higher share in Renova, a joint venture between the two groups. Some experts argued the goal of reaching “food sovereignty” was misguided, although they believed that it should not affect exports for now. More recently, however, an official conceded that the government might review its plan and look to create a public-private partnership instead. 

The head of Louis Dreyfus Co mentioned that the company was on track to meet its sustainability targets for 2022, in part thanks to partnerships with certification bodies. The good progress was also a sign that the decision to link the financing model with sustainability goals was working. Bunge, meanwhile, said it should be able to deliver earnings to shareholders thanks to crush margins normalising and successful cost-cutting efforts. Bunge will continue to restructure and offload non-core business assets, the CEO mentioned.

While food firms have been involved in sustainability movements for some time, they are increasingly taking a political stance as well. Unilever, Coca Cola, Starbucks, Nestle’s Blue Bottle Coffee, Diageo and Hershey’s have all announced that they will temporarily stop advertising on social media platforms, as the #StopHateForProfit campaign continues to gain ground. 

The Roundup legal nightmare is close to being over – or at least Bayer hopes so – after the firm agreed to settle 95,000 lawsuits for USD 11 billion. The company has also set up a fund to deal with future cases. However, some lawyers noted that around 30,000 cases refused to settle as the financial compensation was too low, and they pledged to continue the fight. The settlement, which still has to be approved by a judge, also includes USD 400 million for farmers whose crops were destroyed by dicamba drifts. All the while, Roundup is still for sale as it is still considered safe by the EPA. And Bayer submitted to the USDA a new corn variety for approval that is resistant to a record five herbicides, including glyphosate and dicamba. 

Finally this week, the coronavirus pandemic created another unsual but excellent headline as Guinness announced that it will use “leftover lockdown beer to fertilise Christmas trees.”

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Initial estimates by the World Trade Organization (WTO) suggest that global trade in goods dropped by 19% in the second quarter due to the coronavirus. This is a record drop but much better than the worst case scenario of a 32% fall which had been touted back in April. The WTO director explained that governments were faster to intervene than during the 2008 crisis, notably by encouraging consumer spending. He is worried, however, that a tendency towards protectionism, combined with a possible second wave of the virus, could slow the recovery in global trade. 

Cargill’s CEO expressed concerns after Brazilian government officials mocked and criticised China. China has bought more Brazilian soybean than expected this year, he explained, saying it was risky to upset buyers. The US administration, meanwhile, continues to send conflicting messages about the state of its trade deal with China. Some officials were heard saying that the deal was over, something which was denied later on. In any case, analysts say that we will only really know in the last quarter of the year when China will buy the bulk of US goods and after the US elections. 

Both the US and Brazil have complained to the WTO about Thailand’s intention to ban paraquat pesticide and chlorpyrifos insecticide, including in imported food. If the proposal goes ahead, Thailand would have one of the strictest policies around, as others such as the EU and China still allow some residue in imports despite having banned these chemicals. Thailand is a major market for wheat and soy imports from the US and Brazil, both of which would be significantly impacted as a result. Farmers in Thailand aren’t happy about this either, as they argue that the alternatives are much worse for the environment. 

Food sustainability is a major concern for the world’s most “disruptive” companies, according to a list by CNBC aggregating 50 companies that attracted a combined USD 74 billion in venture capital. One of the companies listed is Apeel, which gained attention for attracting funding from celebrities and is focusing on food waste, blamed for 8% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. The company created an edible film that can be applied on fruits and vegetables to double their life span without refrigeration. 

Another company in the CNBC list is the plant-based meat company Impossible Foods whose reach is expected to grow significantly with Starbucks launching an Impossible Breakfast Sandwich across the US. Impossible Foods is working to be viewed as “better meat” and not an alternative product, the CEO explained. He said that 90% of their consumers are meat eaters and that the coronavirus-linked meat shortages helped push consumers to their products. 

Danone North America is taking it one step further and looking at how to enhance its range of plant-based food and drinks with health properties. It has tied up with Brightseed to use artificial intelligence to “analyse plants at the molecular level in order to understand the specific roles that nutrients play in the proper functioning of our bodies.”

Technological advances are also key in the meat sector where ADM noted that spicy flavours are becoming increasingly popular among meat eaters. One of the group’s food scientists noted that “The consumer palate for spice is also becoming much more nuanced with increasing desire for specific pepper varieties and hyper-local regional spices.” The group is working on developing the right ingredients for marinades to capture all the flavours as well as physical sensations. 

Cargill launched fully traceable chicken in China using blockchain technology. Consumers can scan the QR code to see which farm it came from. “This is chicken 2.0,” Cargill said. Otherwise, the group is investing EUR 3.5 million to produce more gourmet chocolate in Belgium. It is also setting up a chocolate production plant in India, the group’s first chocolate production unit in Asia, to capture the growing demand in the region. 

Nestle’s KitKat announced it would stop buying cocoa certified by Fairtrade and would focus instead on the Rainforest Alliance as it “harmonises [its] certification for sustainable sourcing internationally.” A company official said they would help Fairtrade cocoa farmers to get certified with Rainforest Alliance so that they can continue to get the premium. 

In Australia, Nestle said it would change the names of RedSkins and Chicos sweets as part of an industry wide movement to rebrand products viewed to have racist stereotypes. As such, Pepsi’s Quaker Oats will be rebranding its century old Aunt Jemima line, the same goes for Mars’ Uncle Ben’s rice and Dreyer’s will rename its Eskimo Pie.  

This summary was produced by ECRUU

As more countries around the world look to progressively unlock their economy, many food producers are still struggling to cope with the coronavirus outbreak. The disease is now spreading in Brazil where Raizen, one of the world’s largest sugar producers, reported that 15 workers at a Sao Paulo plant had tested positive for COVID-19. The meat sector, with its densely packed processing lines, remains one of the most vulnerable and a court forced JBS SA to close a meat plant in Rio Grande do Sul for two weeks. 

Some groups have jumped on the opportunity to highlight issues in our current food system and call for a dramatic rethink of the status quo. In response, a coalition of industry members insisted that livestock and modern agriculture were in no way responsible for the outbreak, which originated in wildlife. They asked the EU to keep supporting the meat sector and insisted on its high safety and welfare standards. 

In the US, meat plants are struggling to maintain a positive image as many criticised a decision by Tyson Food to reinstate a policy on absent workers which centres around “punitive effect for missing work due to illness.” Tyson has also taken a central role in the government’s price-fixing investigation as the firm confirmed that it was cooperating with the Justice Department. By becoming one of the first parties to admit to misconduct and collaborate with authorities which will now go after other firms, Tyson will be offered leniency, confidentiality and possible financial benefits. 

The impact of the pandemic on other food sectors has been more discreet but not always less significant. In Florida’s poor Immokalee area, a doctor revealed that half of the people he tested had been infected, making him think the area had “one of the highest rates of coronavirus infection globally.” Some 25,000 farm workers live in Immokalee, mostly to harvest the tomato crop, but many are undocumented and officials have not made the area a priority. 

Food producers who rely on foreign demand are also particularly vulnerable, like West Africa’s cashew nut growers. The region is responsible for 55% of world production but very little is consumed locally. Most of the crop is usually processed in Asia and Olam – the largest player in the market – commented that prices should remain low for a while as the pandemic disrupted cross border trade. In a demonstration of how global the food supply chain is, an African exporter noted that the collapse in cashew prices could be linked to the mass cancellation of weddings in India. 

How the world trades food could also be impacted by the coronavirus as the CME Group announced that its grain option pits will remain closed until the situation in Chicago and Illinois significantly improves, with the introduction of a vaccine or a treatment. A broker said she was struggling after losing the advantage of being on the floor, while Futures International suggested this could mark “the end of a 180-year era.”

Countries like Singapore are realising the key role international trade needs to play to feed people. The country unveiled a plan to diversify its trade partners and has been approving more countries for food imports, bringing the total to 170 countries. A plan was also launched to produce 30% of food needs locally by 2030, compared to 10% currently. The situation is going in the opposite direction in Venezuela which is now “on the verge of famine” according to the International Crisis Group. Farmers have not been able to sow crops because of a fuel shortage.

Things could be changing over at Nestle as the CEO mentioned a potential plan to sell the Nestle Waters North America unit in order to refocus on premium international brands like Perrier, S Pellegrino and Acqua Panna. The firm also announced the purchase of a majority stake in Vital Proteins, the US’ largest producer of collagen-based supplements, vitamins and food and beverage products. 

ADM, Bunge, Cargill, COFCO, Glencore Agriculture, and Louis Dreyfus joined forces under a new partnership program with Solidaridad Brazil which will focus on improving the sustainability of soy production in the Cerrado. The deforestation rate in the area is currently twice as high as in the Amazon. In Iowa, Cargill is hoping to expand a program that paid soy farmers for their efforts to sequester carbon dioxide and improve water quality. The venture is now looking to expand to other crops and find new corporate partners. 

After Murder Hornets made headlines in the US, another dangerous-sounding insect is now taking the spotlight: the Samurai Wasp. Italy is releasing the wasps, originally from Asia, in the hope that they will prey on the brown marmorated stink bug which was accidentally introduced from Asia. 

This summary was produced by ECRUU