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A friend of mine recently asked me what I had learned from writing The New Merchants of Grain. A quote from Winston Churchill came to mind. He said,

“Writing a book is an adventure to begin with, it is a toy and an amusement, then it becomes a mistress, and then it becomes a master, and then a tyrant. The last phase is that just as you are about to be reconciled to your servitude, you kill the monster, and fling him out to the public.”

I had already had that experience with my earlier books, but what did I learn from writing this book in particular? I have come up with five ‘lessons-learnt’.

The first is the importance of leadership. CEOs and senior managers often get a bad press, but they play an essential role in setting both the culture and the strategy of a company. Management consultants may talk about ‘bottom-up’ organisations, but in my experience everything comes from the top. Of course not all CEOs are equal, and a company has to have the right one, but after writing this book I will never again say that a CEO is overpaid!

The second is that companies are just people. Again the media likes to present big companies as faceless organisations, but they aren’t. Enterprises are just a bunch of real people trying to do the best they can for their company, their families and for the world in general. Of course there will always be people who prioritise their own self-interest above the general good, but they tend not to last long in a team-based structure. And all companies are team-based structures.

Third, writing this book really drove home to me the cyclical nature of our business, not just in terms of agricultural production but also in terms of investment in infrastructure. Booms lead to busts. We all know that, but we still often fall into the trap of believing that ‘this time will be different’. It rarely is, and it can take years to work off the investment overhang.

Fourth, writing this book drove home to me the way in which up-cycles—and their accompanying profits—attract new players, increasing competition just as the cycle turns and times get tougher.

It is often said that in a slow growth industry you have to be in the top three companies to earn a decent return. As I wrote in my book, seven companies account for 50 percent of the world trade in grain and oilseeds. That may be four too many. But also as I wrote in my book, consolidation is currently blocked, leaving participants to eek out economies of scale in regional and sectoral joint ventures. This situation may last a while.

Lastly, I learned that different markets behave in different ways. Sugar may be similar to grain, but it is not the same.

When I started in the business 40 years ago commodities used to trade in silos. If you began your career as a cocoa trader you stayed a cocoa trader—and it took a lifetime to really learn the business. Meanwhile, what happened in the cocoa market rarely affected what happened, say, in coffee or orange juice.

This situation changed over the intervening years with the ‘financialisation’ of the commodity markets. The growth in computer power, accompanied by the growing popularity of commodities as investment tools, led to the market rather than the commodity being the dominant factor. A hedge fund manager could trade numerous commodity markets without any real understanding of each underlying commodity.

This has now been largely discredited, and commodity hedge funds have pretty much disappeared. We are seeing a return to commodity ‘silos’ where traders become experts in their own commodities, rather than in commodity markets as a whole.

I would venture that we are in the process of transitioning back to markets that are once again based on underlying fundamentals, viewed of course through the filter of human emotions. That would be a big positive for our industry. I hope I am right!

© Commodity Conversations ®

Out of the Shadows – The New Merchants of Grain is now available on Amazon

Last week my daughter and I were honoured to co-chair the 28th ISO Seminar in London. It was a great event as always, well organized and well attended.

The ‘War on Sugar’ was omnipresent at the event, centre stage in both the conference and coffee rooms.

Some attendees were optimistic that they would eventually win the war—that sugar demand would pick up again once folks realized that cutting sugar consumption was no silver bullet in the battle against obesity.

One presenter explained that the objective of most governments and NGOs was to reduce sugar’s share in daily calorie intake to 5 percent, as recommended by WHO guidelines. However, replacing one calorie by another will not solve the obesity problem.

Other presenters gave examples of chocolate and food manufacturers who are reducing sugar content in their products but replacing it partly with fat, the net result being lower sugar content but the same number of calories.

However, for the moment at least the sugar industry is losing the war. It is having to come to terms with slowing demand growth or, in some instances, an actual decline in outright demand. This is a completely new paradigm, and it is taking some time for the new reality to sink in. It has a number of implications.

Agricultural sugar yields, particularly in beet, have historically been increasing at around 1.5 percent per year, enabling the sector to meet rising demand with little need for new areas. However, zero demand growth coupled with rising yields means that farmers will have to reduce their sugar acreage.

Also, when sugar demand was growing at 3 million tonnes per year, any surplus production one year could be relatively quickly absorbed in the following years. Now, if one country over-produces—as recently happened in India—other countries have to reduce production if they don’t want the surpluses to hang around, weighing on the market.

The sugar sector is similar to grains in the sense that it has over-invested in capacity, both in refining and milling. In the past that wouldn’t have mattered too much because demand would have eventually caught up. This is no longer the case.

If demand is stagnant, the only solution is consolidation and rationalization. This is already happening, particularly in Europe and Brazil where factories are being closed.

It is not all bad news. First, demand is still growing strongly in some regions, particularly in Africa, but also to a lesser extent in Asia. This presents local opportunities. Second, rationalization and consolidation can lower costs if smaller less efficient units are closed. Third, slow growth sectors are less attractive to potential new entrants, reducing the threat of excessive capacity investment.

The sugar sector is also lucky in that sugar cane and beet are extremely versatile products. It doesn’t have to produce only sugar and can diversify into ethanol, bioplastics, energy generation, fibres etc. Unsurprisingly, diversification was a hot topic at the seminar.

Meanwhile, many food manufacturers are taking advantage of the anti-sugar hype to reduce the size of their products, particularly drinks and chocolate bars. But they are not reducing the prices of these products—another example of companies becoming more profitable in a zero or negative growth market. In addition, many sugar producers are starting to produce higher-value and innovative reduced-sugar sweeteners.

If you look around you can see plenty of zero growth, or low growth industries that are highly profitable. There is no reason why sugar shouldn’t be one of them.

However, as more than one presenter pointed out, it is the consumers that now have the power;  you have to follow the trends and produce what they want. But what they want is not always what they say they want. Consumers may say they want a healthy sustainable product, but what they buy is actually a convenient low-cost tasty one. In order of importance, taste comes first, price second and convenience third. Health is fourth and poor old sustainability fifth.

Having said that, modern day consumers take for granted that their foods are sustainable and healthy—and they rent their outrage on social media when they are not. Unfortunately, consumers are not willing to pay for sustainability. This means that the extra costs involved are passed down the value chain to the farmers, making them worse off. It is a problem that I have often touched on in my blogs, but so far no one has found any solution to it.

On a brighter note, one piece of research presented at the seminar found that consumers prefer the cake to their presents on their birthday. Baking a cake is apparently seen as an act of love, more so than just buying a present. I will remember that for my grandchildren!

© Commodity Conversations ®

A conversation with Ito van Lanschot

Ito van Lanschot is a business developer, strategist, investor, leader, risk and commodity expert. He is founder and managing director of TRADESPARENT BV, (formerly named Commodity Services & Solutions) which is today a leader in commodity data and solutions.

Previously Ito was CEO of BayWa Agri Supply and Trade, President and COO of Reliant Energy Europe and CEO of Nidera where he was directly responsible for the international trading and processing business and operations for the grain and oilseeds complex, freight, energy business and the development and implementation of its global risk group.

You left Nidera 4 years before COFCO acquired a 51 percent stake. While you were CEO, had you already started to look for an equity partner for Nidera?

Indeed, as the company had grown tremendously, and financing became an issue—how do we finance future expansion? Markets were volatile and prices were rising; high prices mean that you need more trade finance. Banks were willing to lend, but they increasingly looked at Nidera’s solvency ratio. Equity was important, and we needed more equity. We started to look around for equity partners to take a 10 to 15 percent in the company

Why did the families decide to sell the whole company rather than the initial 10 or 15 percent?

I left Nidera in 2010 so I was not involved in the transaction. I can only speak from what I have heard second-hand. While our initial intention had been to find an equity partner, the families also wanted a strategic partner to help grow the business. They found that strategic partner in COFCO.

COFCO was interested in acquiring the origination assets that Nidera had in Argentina and Brazil. Nidera was interested in COFCO as a strategic partner. The 51 / 49 percent deal that they eventually agreed was in line with that logic. The idea was that Nidera’s managers would continue to run Nidera with an assist from COFCO.

Nidera posted its first loss in five years in 2015 after a rogue trader incurred losses of around $200 million in the biofuels market. How did that happen, and why didn’t risk management controls catch it earlier?

I was the last CEO of Nidera who had a trading and risk management experience. A financial manager took over after me, and ultimately a gentleman from Unilever. As often seen in the various trading industries, it is difficult to manage traders, you can have the best governance structure and control systems, but you always have to keep your eyes open for anything that looks out of the ordinary. So, I believe it is easier for an experienced trader to understand and to know what is not right. It takes a trader to catch a trader.

Do you think there is still a role for small trading houses in today’s market?

You have to be highly specialized to operate in a trading market. With the strength of the farmer and the strength of the consumer, the trader has to have a very defined role and to add value. I find it hard to believe that the smaller traders can add value unless they have something really unique in their product offering. And the markets are so transparent that this is unlikely.

The large guys are struggling as well. Our whole industry is going through a period that is similar to the time after the Great Grain Robbery of the 1970s. It was difficult to make money in the 1980s and 1990s, and it is difficult to make money now.

What are the greatest risks or challenges that the trading houses face today?

The biggest risk a manager has is in taking decisions on reports based on incomplete or incorrect information. It is a real struggle for companies to collect the correct data in these fast moving and complex markets. Senior management needs to drive this effort and embrace technology themselves, and not leave it to their IT-staff alone.

In the past, trading companies had margins, so they could get away with taking the odd bad decision; everyone makes bad decisions from time to time. But today there are practically no margins in the business, and you are punished immediately for a bad decision.

Thank you, Ito, for your time and insights.

© Commodity Conversations ®

This is a brief extract of a conversation from my new book Out of the Shadows – The New Merchants of Grain available on Amazon

It has been a few years since I last attended a Global Grains Conference (GGG), and I was surprised to see just how big it has grown. With over 1,000 registered attendees and 80 speakers the event must now be one of the biggest agricultural conferences in the world. So congratulations to the organizers for that achievement, but also for the seamless way they ran the event. Kudos!

What were my ‘takeaways’ from the event?

My first, and perhaps the most worrying, is that we have probably seen peak globalization; the pendulum is now swinging back to nationalism. We need international trade to feed the world and as Bunge’s CEO Greg Heckman pointed out in a recent interview, the grain companies have invested on the basis that free trade would continue. This now has to be questioned and factored into forward planning.

Unfortunately, it is difficult for grain companies to plan—and invest—with this current level of political uncertainty. We live in a world where everything can turn on a tweet.

My second takeaway was that of oversupply, and the role that technology continues to play in increasing yields. Although the media often worries how the world’s farmers will feed 9 billion people by 2050, farmers worry that oversupply might drive them out of business before they get to 2050!

But it is not just technology that is driving supply. The expansion in Russia and Ukraine, as well as the second safrina corn crop in Brazil, has also contributed to current oversupply. Production in those low-cost areas is likely to continue to grow.

While supply increases, demand stagnates. I come from the sugar market where demand ‘is the background against which changes in supply play out’. The price of sugar is a function of supply.

The price of grain, it seems, is a function of demand. The price over the past ‘super cycle’ has been driven by biofuels and China. As both now level off, grain analysts are searching for the next ‘demand driver’. They are failing to find one and are worried that African Swine Flu will actually exacerbate the situation. No one I spoke with at the conference expects much of price rally from current levels.

My third takeaway concerned the growing importance of sustainability. When I used to organize conferences we always put the topic of sustainability as the last panel, by which time most people were already heading for the airport. Sustainability has now moved up the agenda; it pretty much dominated GGG’s first sessions.

As usual, the discussions were interesting but inconclusive. They will remain inconclusive until someone finds a way to persuade consumers to pay extra for sustainable food. Until they do, it is the farmers who have to bear the costs of certification—and the traders who have to bear the cost of operating traceable supply chains.

On a lighter note, there was a brief discussion as to whether we are ‘traders’ or ‘supply chain managers’. The vote went in favour of ‘traders’. As Swithun Still, the current president of Gafta told the audience. “We are grain traders—and we proud of the role that we play.”

There was a brief discussion on consumer trends—and what the consumer wants. The answer to that is a complex one: it depends on which consumer you are talking about. And the complexity is increased because there is a huge gap between what a consumer says he wants and what he really wants. He may say he wants a sustainable healthy product, but what he really wants is one that tastes good and doesn’t cost much.

As for the current interest in plant-based meats, I was surprised that some panelists dismissed it as a short-term fad rather than a long-term trend. It reminded me of similar discussions at sugar gatherings ten years ago when the anti-sugar movement was lightly dismissed as a short-term fad.

It is obviously impossible to summarize GGG in a short blog. And it is important to note that others will have completely different takeaways. In other words, you had to be there, but if you weren’t there is always next year! (Global Grain also organise regional events that you might want to check out.)

© Commodity Conversations ®

My book Out of the Shadows The New Merchants of Grain is now available in paperback and electronic versions of Amazon