Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

The US President signed an executive order this week to simplify and accelerate the process to approve genetically modified livestock and seeds. According to the order, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) need to set up “common sense regulations.” Earlier, the US Department of Agriculture had already proposed to significantly relax genetically engineered rules in a bid to make it cheaper for companies to develop new crops and for farmers to have more options. The idea was that companies would no longer need the FDA and EPA approvals for genetically engineered crops that are similar to crops that could be made through traditional breeding – leaving it up to the companies to determine whether this was the case or not.

An area where US farmers do want more regulation, on the other hand, is to limit foreign ownership of US land. As of 2016, the USDA estimated that some 2.3 million acres of land was in foreign hands, including 190,000ha under Chinese investments. However, some say the numbers are inaccurate and could be higher. This is also expected to be an issue in the presidential race with at least one candidate proposing to ban foreigners from buying farmland at a federal level.

In an interview with Forbes, Cargill’s recently appointed chairman of Asia Pacific (the group’s first board-level executive not to be based in the US) said that Asia was increasingly important as a home for food grown in the US where yields are growing faster than consumption. He said the group was focusing on developing “Asian run” businesses and was looking to build more partnerships with both governments and private organisations.

Cargill’s Aqua Nutrition is 43% on track to being entirely Marine Stewardship Council certified, a goal it has set for 2025. The division, which produces almost 5% of the world’s aquafeed, managed to reduce its freshwater usage by 15% and its greenhouse gas emissions by 6% in 2018. Cargill also managed to cut CO2 emissions from its chartered shipping fleet by 12.1% in 2018, on track to reach 15% in 2020 and part of the International Maritime Organisation’s target of a 50% reduction by 2050. The head of the ocean transportation business said, however, that “we must do more.”

In the US, Cargill has launched several high-protein low-carb meat snacks after a survey showed that almost everyone snacks during the day, with some people eating 4-5 snacks a day. Close to half of those surveyed are looking – and ready to pay a premium – for healthier options.

Wilmar is looking for opportunities in China’s struggling animal feed market – in part due to the African swine fever – to invest in building new soybean crushing plants. A source said the strategy was to focus on poultry feed instead of hogs as chicken demand is growing faster. The group could also be looking at setting up an oilseed plant in Vietnam. In Australia, Wilmar, which is Queensland’s third largest rail network owner-operator, has installed cameras on all the sugarcane trains so that footage can be used in case of an accident with pedestrians.

Via its Prize for Innovation in Food Security award, Olam is investing in Innovation Mapping for Food Security (IM4FS), a technology that is being developed to help small farmers work out which is the best crop to grow on a field at a given time. Olam’s CEO said this was exactly the kind of technology required at a time of climate change and biodiversity loss.

Global chocolate producers are likely to miss their 2020 deadline to eradicate child labour from their supply chain, the fourth time they miss the deadline after trying in 2005, 2008 and 2010. A report in the Washington Post said that none of the main chocolate producers could guarantee that their supply chain was child labour free and that they felt the existing certification agencies were insufficient. Part of the problem is that traceability from farms is a major challenge and that small farms often found a way around the certification criteria. Similarly, most companies’ “no deforestation” pledge by 2020 deadline is going to be missed, with Greenpeace estimating that 50 million ha of forest has been lost in the last 10 years. However, with the Global Forest Watch platform launching a real-time platform using satellite imagery to track deforestation, “there are no more excuses,” the organisation said. They added that companies like Cargill and Louis Dreyfus are already using it for a wide range of commodities, including beef.

A new study found that the average adult in America ingests at least 50,000 microplastic particles every year through food, with actual numbers likely to be close to three times that amount. The worst is for those who drink water from plastic bottles, which have 22 times more microplastic than tap water. No one really knows how bad the plastic is, however, and some scientists say the risk could be overplayed. But better be safe than sorry – the Canadian government is apparently going to ban single-use plastics by 2021. That would include straws, cotton swabs and single-use cutlery, among many other things. Plastic is also a major issue in organic farming which uses more plastic mulch to compensate for not using weed killers. One organic farmer in the US said that the plastic film used on a 30-acre plot would spread over 58km in a straight line, all of which ends up in landfills later on.

Last but certainly not least, a Mongolian NGO is re-introducing the traditional guard and shepherd Bhankar dog which was phased out during the Soviet era. The number of livestock in the grasslands has increased threefold in the last 17 years in part because herders want to anticipate the loss of animals to predators. This, in turn, accelerates desertification. Bhankar dogs are such a source of pride that some families who had moved to the city are reportedly being convinced back into herding life just to be given one. Check them out here.

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AgriCensus Report

VTB to buy Russian grain trader to expand state-control in grains: sources

Russian state-owned bank VTB has continued its grain acquisition spree, picking up trader Mirogroup for an undisclosed fee, sources close to the deal said Friday.

Mirogroup is among Russia’s biggest domestic grain traders, handling almost 2 million mt of grain in the 2017/18 marketing year.

Agricensus contacted VTB and Mirogroup for comment, but had received none at the time of press.

The acquisition is the latest example of the bank making inroads into the grain export industry, with Russia the world’s biggest exporter of wheat.

VTB has been on a buying run in the grains market this year, picking up logistics and storage assets since acquiring half of trader OZK from Summa Group as part of a bankruptcy settlement.

Last week it was confirmed the bank had bought a controlling stake in the country’s main grain-handling railway company.

And it is currently mulling buying into the grain handling hub at Taman, which would add to its control of two terminals at Russia’s main grain export hub in Novorossiysk.

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Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Wilmar International and Associated British Foods (ABF) announced the creation of a joint-venture in China that will produce yeast and other bakery ingredients. The partnership will build a new unit attached to a Wilmar food processing factory and take over operations from AB Mauri, an ABF subsidiary.

In order to reduce costs after a disappointing first quarter, ADM has merged two of its five businesses – the grain trading and oilseeds segments – into one operation. The group is struggling amid the bad weather in the US Midwest and trade tensions with China. This marks the second restructuring in 14 months and analysts noted that it would help streamline operations.

ADM was reportedly one of the trading groups who sold Brazilian corn to the US in recent weeks, as sources said that between 5 and 10 Brazilian corn vessels were purchased by Smithfield Food in the US, a subsidiary of China’s WH Group. Importing can save on the cost of transportation from the Corn Belt, where the bad weather is expected to delay planting and lower total corn output this year. Overall, traders estimate that the US could be due to receive 1 million mt of corn from South America. This would help Brazilian farmers, who expect to harvest a record 100 million mt of corn. Global corn supplies are also being threatened by the fall armyworm in China, usually the world’s second largest corn producer, as the pest has now affected 15 regions and should keep spreading, according to the USDA.

In Switzerland, the NGO Public Eye is asking the government to implement stricter rules on human rights violations for agricultural trading companies that operate out of the country. It estimates that 50% of global grain, 40% of global sugar and 30% of global coffee and cocoa are traded from Switzerland.

In a major but little-noticed move, the USDA officially authorised the transport of hemp and THC across US states last week. The agency said that “Congress has removed hemp from schedule I and removed it entirely from the CSA (Controlled Substances Act)”. Analysts noted that Unilever was in a good position to trial the sale of cannabidiol (CBD) products, which was legalised with hemp in the 2018 Farm Bill, thanks to its large number of brands. The group has already announced possible CBD variants for two brands: Schmidt’s Naturals, which makes natural deodorants, and Ben & Jerry’s.

The competition is increasing in the plant-based meat sector as Nestle is due to launch its Sweet Earth Awesome Burger in the US before the end of the year. While other brands like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods are already available in many outlets, Nestle highlighted that its vegan burger is actually healthier, with more fibre and protein than its competitors. This marks the third plant-based burger offered by Nestle, along with the Garden Gourmet brand in the EU and the Incredible Burger it sells through McDonald’s in Germany.

The traditional meat market could also see some major changes, as Brazil’s chicken producer BRF SA is looking to acquire Marfrig Global Foods SA, which would create the world’s fourth-largest meat company. Protein export demand is expected to surge this year as China is due to lose 10% of its pig population to the African Swine Fever, although experts cautioned that the two groups might struggle to combine and streamline operations.

The Ecological Transition ministry in France instructed 15 fast-food chains, including McDonald’s, KFC, Burger King and Starbucks, to sort the waste at 70% of their restaurants before the end of 2019, in order to comply with a 2016 law. France is also planning to expand the ban on the destruction of food items to non-food items, like clothes sold by luxury stores or online retailers. The measures are seen as a consequence of the success of the green party during the European elections.

Lastly this week, a Californian judge agreed to overrule the decision that would have forced coffee makers to include a cancer warning label. The drawn-out legal case revolved around the trace amounts of acrylamide, a carcinogenic, found in coffee.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

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AgriCensus Report

China-owned, US pork producer imports corn as US pork sales to China soar

Chinese-owned US pork producer Smithfield is snapping up cargoes of cheap South American corn over fears that immediate logistic woes and worries over the 2019/20 new corn crop may choke supply, market sources told Agricensus this week.

The news comes as US export sales of pork to China soar more than 1000% year-on-year as the world’s biggest pork consuming nation battles with its own supply woes amid an outbreak of African swine fever that is set to cut the nation’s pig herd by 30%.

US net pork sales to China totalled almost 40,000 mt this week, USDA data showed Friday, leaving the total commitment this marketing year at 234,000 mt so far.

That compares with just 20,000 mt at this point last year.

“Smithfield has bought cargoes from Santos loading and are looking for some more for shipment into North Carolina,” one market source said.

The result means that a Chinese-owned, US-based pork producer could feed pigs with cheap South American corn to help facilitate pork exports to China.

All at the same time as the US and China are locked in a trade war that is impacting the global agricultural markets and hitting US farmer incomes.

Big pig producer

US-based Smithfield is the largest pig and pork producer in the world with the move coming after rumours that corn sourced from Argentina had also been moved to the US state, which is on the country’s eastern seaboard.

“Argentina corn was reported to Wilmington (North Carolina). Brazil, I know it has sold four 2019 cargoes and another two for 2020,” an Argentina-based source said.

Smithfield operates the largest pork processing facility in the world, capable of handling 35,000 pigs a day, at Tar Heels in North Carolina, approximately 100 kilometres northwest of the port of Wilmington.

Although US-based, the company is owned by China’s WH Group following its acquisition in October 2018.

Argentina-based market sources mulled whether the impact of corn planting fears is weighing on domestic end users.

“I think that corn end users in the US are worried on physical corn… This smoke makes me think that there is a big fire somewhere. Do they expect a big impact on yields?” a third source said.

US corn futures and cash prices have been forced higher as a seemingly bottomless cocktail of rain and floods has swamped fields, prevented planting, and played havoc with logistics.

“I have never heard (of Smithfield buying in South America) … but as I have heard it’s due to the cost of bringing down corn from the Midwest… so I guess Mississippi’s flooding is enabling this trade,” the first source said.

US Gulf FOB prices reached $198/mt on Thursday, putting them close to $30/mt above the Argentina FOB Up River market.

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What does the customer want?

This blog is based on comments made to a workshop organized by Azucarera in Madrid in May 2019

Over history, market power—or pricing power—has shifted along the agricultural supply chain, first from farmers to merchants, then from merchants to processed food companies and now, ultimately, to the consumer.

The shift in power from farmer to trader began as food became more plentiful. The discovery of the Americas and the opening up of vast new agricultural areas, accompanied by efficiencies in ocean freight, along with refrigeration, dramatically increased food supply. This reduced the market power of farmers, particularly among the great land owning families in Europe.

In the UK, the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846 was a pivotal event in the history of food production. It removed tariffs on imported grains, lowered food prices, encouraged farm efficiencies and led to the surplus food and labour that powered the industrial revolution. And since then, despite rising population, increasing agricultural yields, as well as gradual area expansion, have reinforced this trend.

As farmers and landowners lost market power, traders gained it. The pricing power moved to the people and the companies that could finance, store, transport and process these vast quantities of food.

But over the past few decades the tectonic plates have moved again. It has been the turn of merchants to lose their market power to the food companies. It is difficult to pinpoint when that process began. Perhaps it was with the gradual introduction of processed foods and the concentration of commodity purchasing power into the hands of a reducing number of large processed food producers.

More recently, the democratization of information, particularly the rise of social media, has dramatically shifted market power from the food companies to the consumer. Social media can both build and destroy a brand, even a company. The consumer may be a lonely individual in front of his or her computer screen, but he or she has found strength in numbers on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and the like.

But if it is the consumer that now has the market power, what does the consumer want?

The answer, of course, depends on the consumer. Broadly speaking, a consumer wants to be able to choose between a variety of convenient, cheap, safe and healthy products which haven’t damaged the environment, or infringed on human rights in their journey along the supply chain. But let’s break down that sentence a little.

Convenience—There was a time when many of us grew at least some of our own food, stored it throughout the year, and then spent long hours in the kitchen preparing it. Now, we have neither the time or the inclination—nor even the space—to invest in our food. Instead, we pick up something for dinner on the way home from work.

VarietyAccording to the author Michael Pollan, there are 45,000 different food items in an average US supermarket. Go to any French supermarket and you will see huge variety of yoghurts. Go to the UK and you will see a huge variety of soft drinks.

Of course, most of those different food items are made out of the same things. More than 25 percent of the 45,000 items in a US supermarket contain maize. And, according to the FAO, more than 40 percent of all human calories come from just three crops: rice, wheat and maize. So maybe, even if the consumer wants choice, what he really gets is only the perception of choice.

Safety—In the Western World we largely take it for granted that the food we eat won’t kill us. In the developing world, food safety is still a big issue, particularly in China.

Health – The consumer is shifting from tradition- or culture-based consumption to science-based consumption. Consumers no longer eat what their parents ate, or told them to eat; they eat what science and the media tells them to eat. Unfortunately, for all the reasons we know, food and nutrition science is difficult. There are often as many studies showing that a particular food is bad for you as there are showing that it is good for you.

As a result, consumers have to form their own beliefs, and they do that within their own new—and ever shifting—tribes, tribes that are usually formed on social media. These beliefs can be extremely strong; in that sense, food has become “the new religion.”

Food now defines you. Are you vegetarian, vegan, or flexitarian? Are you gluten- or lactose-intolerant? Do you mind eating GM foods, or eating animals that have eaten GM feeds? Will you only buy organic produce—or will you go for the cheaper options? Are you sugar-free? And if you are, does that include the “natural” sugars in fruit and fruit juices? (As if the sugar in sugar beet is somehow not “natural”, but that is another story.)

Sustainability—The Boston Consulting Group recently did a survey in the fashion sector that found that 75 percent of consumers said that sustainability was “extremely or very important” in their purchasing decisions. However, on closer questioning, only 7 percent said that sustainability influenced their purchase decisions. More important factors included low prices, high quality, convenience and “trends”.

BSG came to the conclusion that sustainability is a prerequisite rather than a driver of purchasing decisions. Consumers expect and demand now that everything they buy is “sustainable.” It is not an add-on, a nice-to-have thing. It is a prerequisite. But because it is a prerequisite, consumers are not willing to pay more for it. And as you all know, sustainable production has to be certified, tracked, and separated. This pushes up costs and reduces margins all along the supply chain. But at least in this, you—we—now have no choice. We have to be sustainable.

Human rights—Consumers want to know that farmers and suppliers have received a fair return for their labours, but they also want—and expect—the cheapest price possible. There is an obvious contradiction here. In many cases, perhaps in most cases, price wins.

Price—The first priority for most consumers in developing countries is to feed their families with the small amount of income that they have. Food is a major part of the family budget. In Nigeria, for example, consumers spend 64 percent of their income on food. Compare that to the UK where we spend 8.2 percent of our income on food. In the US the figure is 6.4 percent. Nearly all of us in the developed world could all pay a little more for our food without it impacting our standard of living.

However, we are all products of our evolution. We may go to the supermarket to buy an organic, certified product, but we end up buying the two-for-one special offer supermarket-own brand. After all, we have a family to feed, and the wellbeing of our family comes before the health of the planet, or the safety and wellbeing of the workers who produced it.

But there is hope in our own selfishness. Our first responsibility may be the health and wellbeing of our families—the survival of our genes. However, we know that we have to provide farmers with a living if we want them to provide us with food. We also know that our genes won’t survive for long if we don’t look after the planet. As such, sales of SOFT (Sustainable, Organic and Fair Trade) foods are increasing.

Maybe we consumers do know what we want, and maybe we are indeed sending the right signals back down the supply chain.

© Commodity Conversations ®

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) announced that it has renewed a USD 750 million loan which will be linked to how the company performs based on a number of sustainability goals. The interest rate will be based on its carbon emissions, waste disposal and electricity and water consumption. The concept is gaining in popularity, especially in Europe, and Moody’s estimated that a total of USD 36 billion worth of sustainable loans were issued last year. Starbucks and Mercon Coffee Group announced similar loans earlier this month, as they noted that the coffee supply chain was particularly vulnerable to climate change.

In China, LDC has partnered with Guangdong Haid Group to produce high-end aquatic feeds and fermented soybean meal, the first investment by LDC in the aquafeed sector. The Haid group is currently the largest aquafeed producer in the world and will help LDC take advantage of the growing demand for healthy protein, LDC’s chairperson noted. Similarly, sources reported that Nutreco NV, an aqua-feed supplier, was looking to purchase the assets of South Korea’s CJ CheilJedang Corp for USD 1.7 billion. Most of the major players in agricultural commodities are investing in the sector, following the advice given by Cargill’s CEO to “go long [on] fish and short [on] pork”.

In contrast, large export companies will be less interested in investing in Ukraine’s grain industry following the fraud and ensuing bankruptcy of the Agroinvest Group, the head of the Ukrainian Grain Association warned. Bunge Ukraine might lose up to 20% of its market share in the sunflower seeds market, while agribusinesses have lost up to USD 200 million because of the Agroinvest Group case, the association estimated.

Ukraine’s leading food maker, Chumak, was purchased by Delta Wilmar, a joint venture between Wilmar International and Delta Exports. A Wilmar spokesperson said the acquisition will help move further downstream into the high value-added food processing sector. Otherwise, analysts warned that low palm and palm kernel oil prices should affect the performance of plantations companies in the first half of 2019, although Wilmar reported better than expected results thanks to the tropical oils and sugar segments.

In Malaysia, the world’s largest producer of crude palm oil, FGV Holdings, said it was looking at ways to reduce its dependency on palm oil, as high stocks levels and the competition from alternatives oilseeds like soybean and sunflower were expected to continue to push down prices. Nonetheless, the biodiesel mandate in Malaysia was increased which could help draw down inventories, the group noted.

Banana experts are gathering this week in Miami to discuss some of the major issues facing the world’s most popular fruit. One of the main concerns remains the Panama disease which threatens to wipe out the Cavendish variety, the single most popular banana type grown as a monoculture around the world. But people are pointing to another less obvious problem: bananas are too cheap. Surveys estimate that it is the cheapest product on the fresh food aisle, which is a mystery considering how fast they rot and how far they have to travel. One explication, according to Equal Exchange, is that the real price is being paid for by the environment and labour forces. Only cotton has a more damaging impact on the societies where it is grown, the group estimates.

The FDA in the US published a new guidance on expiry dates which will hopefully reduce the amount of food that is unnecessarily wasted. The agency recommends that the food industry uses the term “Best If Used By” to illustrate that labels are placed for quality and not safety purposes. A majority of food products can be consumed safely beyond the date indicated on the packaging and the law only imposes a sell-by date for safety reasons on one product: infant formula. For more information, check out this video which explains that even if products are expired and smell really bad, like milk, they are still completely safe to consume.

The drive by supermarket chains to reduce the amount of plastic used is facing a major obstacle: consumers often choose convenience over sustainability. In the UK, Morrisons launched a program to encourage people to use their own containers for meat purchased at fresh food counters, but some chains like Tesco are now completely removing fresh food counters. The decision comes as consumers increasingly look to purchase products that are already sealed and ready to scan. One solution could be to work towards a middle way, such as shifting to recyclable aluminium trays which provide all the convenience of plastic packaging with a smaller environmental impact.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

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AgriCensus Report

Grain market shorts brace themselves for “history-making event”

Corn and soybean futures moved sharply higher during early trade on Tuesday as analysts warned that up to 13 million acres of area could be lost due to persistent rains across key planting areas.

By time of press the July front-month contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade were up 2.5% for corn and 1.5% for soybeans as traders rushed to buy back short positions.

“We have a true problem here, and the most aggressive price moves always occur when funds flip from net short to net long, that’s what’s happening,” said Charlie Sernatinger, a broker with ED&F Man.

Data recorded last week showed the net short position in corn has collapsed to 116,000 lots from 283,000 lots the week before, with soybeans falling to 153,000 lots from 169,000 lots over the same period.

Rain will continue to batter the Midwest this week, according to weather forecasts, although precipitation will be less intense than recent weeks.

Analysts expect some fieldwork to have been done despite the rains, although the estimates for Tuesday’s crop report vary wildly with corn plantings expected to be between 59-65% complete versus 49% a week ago and 90% by this time last year.

Soybeans are expected to be 25-36% complete versus 19% last week and 74% a year ago.

And now some analysts are saying the current crop could be the worst in more than 100 years, with more than 10% of the acreage lost due to sodden ground.

“Going forward there will be 10 million prevent plant corn acres and 3 million prevent plant soybeans. The yield is going down also. This a history making event in US crop production. Few understand the serious situation,” said Chuck Shelby, president of Risk Management Commodities.

Corn futures have rallied more than 18% in the past three weeks while soybeans have rallied just 5% over the same period.

However, with continued rain forecast, there is some concern that the corn rally could spill into soybean futures as delayed plantings expected to switch from corn to soybeans may not occur.

“The trade is focused on short covering in corn, which is lifting nearby contracts higher. Say the same planting problems arise for soybeans later this planting season, the same thing could happen to CBOT soybeans,” said Terry Reilly, an analyst at Futures International.

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Secrets and conspiracies

OK, I had to do it. I couldn’t write a book* about commodity trading without (finally) reading The Secret Club that Runs the World—Inside the Fraternity of Commodities Traders by Kate Kelly, formally a journalist with the Wall Street Journal. The book was published in June 2014, so you may ask why it took me so long to get around to reading it. The answer is that the title put me off. It reeks of a conspiracy theory; it suggests that the commodity traders work together to secretly “run the world.”

But it wasn’t just the title that put me off; it was also the advertising blurb. The publishing company writes, “… if the individual participants in the great commodities boom of the 2000s went unnoticed, their impact did not. Over several years the size of the market exploded, and so did prices for raw materials—raising serious questions about whether the big traders were intentionally jacking up the cost of gasoline, food, and other essentials bought by ordinary people around the world. What was really driving all those price spikes?”

All sensational stuff! The advertising blurb adds that the author “takes us inside this secretive inner circle that controls so many things we all depend on”.

Imagine my surprise, therefore, when I finally read the book and found that it wasn’t the conspiracy-accusing, and industry-demolishing, book that the title suggested. In fact, it was more like a cross between Gala and Vanity Fair magazines.

I recommend that you read the book if you are, for example, interested to know that the fiancée of one hedge fund manager went to Paris three times to have her wedding dress fitted, but eventually chose a dress that was off the peg. Or that the same hedge fund manager decided not to drive his Bugatti in the South of France for fear that gravel from the driveway would chip the car’s paintwork.

It is a nice book, fun and easy to read, and as entertaining as celebrity gossip always is. But I am afraid you won’t learn much about commodity trading from it. Nor will you learn anything about the secret club of commodity traders that rules the world.

So why the misleading title and advertising blurb? Probably because the publishing house knows how to sell books—and they know that everyone likes a conspiracy theory. They know that people like to believe that secret clubs—or groups of powerful, often sinister, people—control our lives, and indeed really do rule the world.

The only problem is that they don’t, and it was therefore impossible for Kate Kelly to write a book that lived up to its title.

The political scientist Michael Barkun has argued that people like conspiracy theories for three reasons. He writes,

“First, conspiracy theories claim to explain what institutional analysis cannot. They appear to make sense out of a world that is otherwise confusing. Second, they do so in an appealingly simple way, by dividing the world sharply between the forces of light, and the forces of darkness. They trace all evil back to a single source, the conspirators and their agents. Third, conspiracy theories are often presented as special, secret knowledge unknown or unappreciated by others. For conspiracy theorists, the masses are a brainwashed herd, while the conspiracy theorists in the know can congratulate themselves on penetrating the plotters’ deceptions.”

There is certainly no shortage of conspiracy theories in our commodity markets. As Dan Morgan wrote in Merchants of Grain, it explains why trading “companies…stay in the shadows most of the time. Perhaps it was the ancient nightmare of the middleman-merchant that made them all so secretive—the old fear that in moments of scarcity or famine, the people would blame them for all their misfortunes, march upon their granaries, drag them into the town square and confiscate their stocks.”

Unfortunately, there can often be an anti-Semitic element in this, particularly as many traders and financiers are Jewish. Daniel Ammann touched on this issue in his book, The King of Oil. He wrote,

“For centuries Jews in Europe had suffered from discrimination. They were unable to become farmers, as they were forbidden from owning land. As they were excluded from the craft guilds, they were unable to become craftsmen. The Catholic Lateran Council of 1215 stated that Jews were not allowed to carry out the most important economic activities of the time. They were however permitted to perform one function that was proscribed for medieval Christians: making loans with interest. Thus the Jews became moneylenders and traders in the absence of other options.

“It is one of the ironies of history that the persecution and expulsion of the Jews is what made such an efficient trading community possible. King Edward I of England expelled the Jews in 1290, and the French monarchs Philip IV and Charles VI chased them from fourteenth-century France….Sephardic Jews were forced to leave Spain in 1492. By the onset of the modern era, the Jewish Diaspora was greater than that of any other people. The scattered Jews had a trading tradition that was second to none and sufficient confidence to enable trade over large distances and periods of time.”

But I will lead the last word to Yuval Noah Harari, author of Sapiens—A brief History of Mankind. He writes,

“As a historian, I’m sceptical about conspiracy theories because the world is far too complicated to be managed by a few billionaires drinking scotch behind some closed doors.”

© CommodityConversations®

* I hope to publish Out of the Shadows: The New Merchants of Grain later this year

 

 

 

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Wilmar topped a 50-company list as the Singapore-based public company with the highest human rights disclosure standards. The group was ranked second – right after Sime Darby – in the ASEAN category. Wilmar’s chief sustainability officer pointed out that several of the highest ranking companies were involved in the palm oil business which showed that the industry was responding to consumer concern and becoming more sustainable.

Olam has issued USD 120 million in five-year fixed-rate notes to nine private investors and will use the funds to service its debt, among other things, the company said. Meanwhile, Cargill announced it was investing in cultured meat startup Aleph Farms, marking its third investment in the non-animal protein business after investing in Memphis Meats and Puris.

Nestle Brazil will be launching 25 new projects in 2019 and continues to look for potential acquisitions with a focus on organic and healthy products. A company official added that producing organic food on a large scale was a challenge, however.

In the US, organic food sales reached a record USD 48 million in 2018, up 6% on year. The Organic Trade Association said that thanks to millennials and social media the USDA Organic seal was becoming increasingly important. “Organic is now considered mainstream… In 2018, there was a notable shift in the mindset,” the association said. Interestingly, the organic market is also affected by the shift to vegetable protein with sales of organic animal protein almost stagnant.

In the UK, the ice cream brand Wall’s has tied up with two NGOs to launch a “Vanilla for Change” program to support sustainable vanilla production in Madagascar, help the farmers involved in growing the crop as well as support education in the UK. Each ice cream will have a “Track Your Impact” bar code that consumers can scan to get more information on the program. “Vanilla for Change is the first step to demonstrate our commitment to fairness across our supply chain,” Wall’s said.

Coca-Cola Amatil will be setting up some 10,000 rooftop solar panels across its bottling plants in Australia. This will help the group reduce carbon emissions but also save some AUD 1.3 million in electricity costs. By 2020, the aim is for 60% of the energy used to be from renewables or from low-carbon sources, up from 56.3% in 2018. Separately, Netflix has tied up with Coca-Cola to promote the former’s new season of Stranger Things as well as the latter’s relaunch of its New Coke. There won’t be any straightforward Coke ads on Netflix, however. Instead, the brand’s presence will be felt in the series.

US-based sustainable agriculture group Indigo Ag is working on building a ‘living map’ of the global food supply through satellite imaging and geospatial intelligence. The company said that the aim was to improve forecasting and market transparency to reduce the volatility and uncertainty of farming. The startup topped CNBC’s list of most disruptive companies last week.

A new study found that even if you’re careful when choosing your pre-prepared meals and look out for items that are low in sugar, falt and salt, you’re still likely to be consuming 500 calories per day more when eating ultra-processed foods. This is because the body produces fewer appetite suppressing hormone when ingesting processed food which means people tend to eat more of it. The scientists are not sure why this is the case, although they guessed it could be because processed food is easier and faster to eat, making it harder for the brain to register the quantities. Romania is one country looking to actively get people to shift to a healthier diet. The government just announced it would reduce the Value Added Tax (VAT) on healthy and local fresh foods from 9% to 5% to promote local agriculture and help reduce rising obesity rates.

The US Food and Drug Administration is set to start looking at how to regulate the cannabis component CBD in food on a federal level at the end of this month. Some food companies, such as Mondelez, already said they were looking into adding it to snacks and the substance is becoming increasingly popular in drinks and sweets. A Rabobank report argued that the new trend was blurring the line between the pharmaceutical and food markets. But with a 2018 study suggesting that almost half of Americans were keen to try edible cannabis, the market is expected to grow exponentially.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

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AgriCensus Report

Cofco, Sinograin snap up South American soybeans as trade talks rot

Sinograin and Cofco have started to aggressively snap up South American soybean supply with at least eight cargoes being bought up from Argentina and Brazil in the past five days for nearby loading on fears that stocks could dwindle.

Five China-based market sources told Agicensus on Friday that the two-state-owned buyers had been sitting on their hands and avoiding contracting South American beans as they were waiting on a political signal to buy millions of tonnes of US soybeans.

However, last week’s breakdown of talks between the US and Chinese governments has dashed fears of a resolution that could reopen Chinese markets to US supply, and has thus changed that dynamic.

“Sinograin and Cofco resumed buying a large amount of South American beans recently because they had previously saved capacities hoping to buy US beans once the [trade] talks are done. Hence, they did not buy enough beans for front-months,” said one market source with knowledge of the matter.

China’s government had pledged to buy 20 million mt of US soybeans as a goodwill gesture to kickstart trade negotiations with the US.

But with only 12.5 million mt contracted – and a large part not expected to arrive until later than August – Cofco is now believed to be short beans.

“I heard they were forced to buy Brazil. The earliest vessel arrivals (if bought now) will be July 9th. Their supply could be cut out by the end of June,” said a second market source.

“Cofco apparently bought 4-5 cargoes on CFR basis on Thursday”, the same source added.

Cofco has been active in the market this week with several deals reported out of both Argentina and Brazil on both an FOB and a CIF basis – a dynamic that has seen Brazilian soybean prices rally 7% in the last week.

Out of Argentina, Cofco bought a cargo at 46 c/bu over futures on Thursday, equivalent to $325/mt and up 6% on the week.

While out of Brazil several deals were heard on a CFR basis at 177 c/bu over July futures for June loading and 6 cents higher for a cross month shipment for June/July equating to $373-375/mt CFR North China, also up 6% on the week.

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