Smart Networking for Women in Commodities

Three Strategies for Success

By Patrícia Luís-Manso – Head of Sugar and Biofuels Analytics at S&P Global Platts

Women are underrepresented in the commodity trading business, in particular in sugar trading. Amongst the top trading houses that control 85 percent of the total sugar traded in the world, less than 10 percent of physical traders are women; and none of them holds a senior trading leadership position. This has led to me to ask whether differences in the way women and men develop and use their career networks could explain this underrepresentation.

Networks are essential to career development because they give access to information and knowledge, as well as to decision makers, influence, endorsement and reputation, emotional support and recognition.

Both male and female traders that I interviewed acknowledge that developing and nurturing career networks matter, and both invest in significant effort in doing so. Based on the interviews, I identified the structure of male and female traders’ networks and their networking behaviours.  I concluded that career networks of men and women sugar traders are similar in terms of size and diversity. Moreover, female sugar traders tend to engage in networking behaviours to a similar extent (frequency) compared to their male colleagues.

However, they differ in other aspects—ways that may be deterring women from accessing and ascending in this profession. Key differences refer to the proportion of high-status individuals and to the proportion of strong ties. Women sugar traders’ networks tend to have less high-status individuals than men’s and to have a lower proportion of strong ties.

Moreover, even though female sugar traders engage to a similar extent as their male colleagues in professional activities (conferences and seminars, for example), and in community projects, other differences came to surface. First and foremost, female sugar traders engage in activities that increase internal visibility less often than their male colleagues. This could be going to lunch with their supervisor, or being on highly visible committees at work. Instead, women tend to engage more often than their male colleagues in maintaining contacts and socializing activities. 

Based on these findings, how can women close the wide gap in the trading profession? I recommend three strategies.

STRATEGY ONE: Nurture strong ties to strategic partners. 

Female sugar traders’ networks have a smaller proportion of very strong ties compared to a male network. In today’s highly connected world, weak ties may be less relevant for career advancement.

The intensity of the relationship with other individuals in the network does matter enormously as a source of social capital. For career advancement, resources like endorsements, validations and sponsorships that come from emotionally strong ties may prove more effective for female career advancement than access to novel information from weaker ties.

STRATEGY TWO: Participate more in high-visibility activities.

Other studies have highlighted the fact that women need high visibility to build legitimacy. Excellent performance and solid human capital are necessary, yet not sufficient, conditions for women to advance to managerial and leadership positions.

STRATEGY THREE: Be more selective in terms of networking: quality over quantity.

Time is limited and women already engage in several networking behaviours. The key is to become more selective, and to think more about impact. This means that every time you participate in a network you should be prepare in advance to maximise impact.

Note: These findings are based on my final project presented as part of the Diploma in Organizational Leadership from the Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford (October 2018) The title of the assignment was Social capital and career development: is there a gender gap? Evidence from the Sugar Trading industry.

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

The biotech industry in the US is being proactive in its campaign to promote gene-edited crops as it hopes to avoid some of the consumer push back that followed the launch of GMOs. While GMOs involve adding foreign DNA to plants, gene-editing happens when DNA is removed. Nonetheless, groups like the Non-GMO Project say the two processes are almost identical and they predict that the industry will struggle to make gene-edited crops acceptable among the general public. The USDA is working to update its rules for gene-edited crops, while the head of the agency has repeatedly defended food companies against “fear your food” movements.

Unlike the USDA, however, the FDA currently classifies gene-edited food as drugs, which implies a very rigorous and lengthy approval process. This expert argues that this is a mistake as gene-edited food is still food but with a snippet of DNA removed. Gene-editing technologies such as CRISPR/Cas9 have huge potential in lowering carbon emissions or improving animal welfare but misguided and unjustified regulations will hinder their development and adoption, she argued.

Meanwhile, the FDA is considering a petition from the Swiss chocolate maker Barry Callebaut who is hoping to put health claims on its products. Although a similar petition was previously rejected, the European Commission authorised the health claims back in 2013. In its petition, Barry Callebaut pointed to some research which identified the flavanols present in cocoa as a promoter of healthy blood flow. Promoting the health aspects of chocolate could be essential to protect demand amid a general shift towards what the public perceives as healthier food.

In Belgium, Cargill announced its purchase of Smet, a family-owned producer of semi-finished chocolate products and gourmet chocolate. And while some are focusing on expanding their premium chocolate lines, Nestle unveiled its Cocoa & Forests Action Plan which will seek to remove all deforestation and labour abuse from its supply chain. As part of the effort, Nestle released the list of its suppliers in Ghana: Agroecom and Cocoa Merchants. It also revealed that Barry Callebaut, Cargill and Cocoanect acted as direct suppliers in Cote D’Ivoire. Another chocolate giant, Mondelez, made a similar pledge this week as it committed to monitor all of its suppliers in Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire and Indonesia with satellites to identify and address incidences of deforestation.

Such efforts could become essential, as a Senate committee in the US approved a bill that would force all large food retailers in Washington to publicly report any human right violations in their supply chain, in an effort to combat human trafficking and slavery. The food industry union argued against the proposal and said it would create a “paperwork nightmare”, while the dairy union said farmers and resellers should not be made responsible of regulating their suppliers. It highlighted that several government agencies already exist for that specific purpose.

Besides regulations, consumer demand is also forcing major food producers to adapt. Bloomberg compiled this list of ingredients which have been subject to sudden changes in perception, such as milk, cheese, sugar and corn syrup, and it noted that firms who failed to adapt have seen their value drop significantly.

Two major pharmaceutical companies, Sanofi and Novartis, announced that they have abandoned efforts to develop a drug to help obese patients lose weight. The decision was partly due to the difficulty in achieving significant results and the growing perception that obesity is not a disease but a lifestyle problem. On the other hand, Novo Nordisk, the last major firm researching the issue, is working on a new drug that could cut patients weight by up to 12.7%.

Lastly this week, researchers have finally solved one of the major mysteries in the food world: why do grapes catch fire when microwaved? Watch this video to understand the complexity of plasma clouds and microwave resonance, or just to see grapes exploding!

This summary was produced by ECRUU

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Australia inks trade deal with Indonesia to consolidate grain supply

The signing of the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA) on Monday in Jakarta is likely to consolidate Australia’s position as a principle grains supplier to one of the most populous nations on earth.

The deal was signed by Australia’s trade minister, Simon Birmingham, and his Indonesian opposite, Enggartiasto Lukita, and now heads back to the respective parliaments for final approval.

It comes after a drawn out negotiating process stretching back to 2010.

Indonesia is the second largest wheat importer in the world, and Australia’s biggest wheat customer, according to a report from Rabobank. Indonesia takes 20% of Australia’s exports with the free trade deal coming as trade relations between the government in Canberra and their counterparts in Beijing have deteriorated in recent months.

“Amidst global trade tensions and uncertainty regarding Australia’s barley trade with China, the signing of the… agreement in Jakarta yesterday is great news for Australian grains,” said Rabobank’s senior grains and oilseeds analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon.

The IA-CEPA agreement includes a 500,000 mt feed grain export quota for Australian feed wheat, barley and sorghum, which has the provision to grow unfettered by 5% per year and could prove to be valuable according to market sources.

“There won’t be a significant improvement (from the current arrangement), but if the Indonesian government moves to restrict feed wheat, then the allocation will be very valuable,” one Australia-based market source said.

Indonesia recently imposed a stringent phytosanitary regime on Ukrainian feed wheat imports, while Russian wheat has also fallen foul of the country’s standards.

But at the same time Indonesia has increased the wheat import from Argentina from 620,000 mt last year to 1.6 million mt this season, becoming the second biggest importer for that origin after Brazil, making harder competition for Australia.

Australia already has the option to export milling wheat into Indonesia at a zero duty rate, versus 5% imposed on other exporters, but Indonesia typically bans the import of barley, wheat and sorghum for feed purposes.

The agreement also makes provision for a joint grains market development initiative intended to develop the Indonesia-Australia supply route.

“These provisions offer important avenues to… compete more strongly with cheaper Black Sea or Argentinian origin wheat, which may have been used for feed (even though imported as milling),” Gordon said in an emailed statement.

While Indonesia hasn’t typically used sorghum or barley – the subject of China’s ire in its Australian anti-dumping investigation – in its feed mix, the agreement may encourage some outlet, according to the market source.

“Maybe it opens up Australia barley and sorghum into Indonesia when it prices competitively versus wheat into the feed ration,” the source said.

Finally, the agreement also includes eliminating tariffs on frozen beef, potentially boosting domestic Australian feed demand. 

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A conversation with Kona Haque

As part of our efforts to encourage more women to join the commodity business we will be running a series of interviews with successful women already in the sector. We caught up with Kona Haque in Dubai.

Kona joined ED&F Man in May 2014 as Group Head of Research, responsible for the company’s commodity and macroeconomic research team (including Volcafe coffee). She previously worked at Macquarie Bank where she was responsible for agriculture and soft commodities research for seven years. Kona spent four years as Senior Commodities Editor / Economist at the Economist Group. She has also worked for a shipping consultancy as Director of Bulk Commodities and spent four years at Metal Bulletin Research, specializing in base metals. Other experience includes working as an economist for a grains market information provider and with the United Nations in Rome, Italy. Kona has an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and a BSc in Agricultural Economics from Reading University.

Good morning Kona, thank you for joining the conversation. First, I would like to ask you why do you think there are so few women in commodities?

Commodities as a sector generally seems to do a bad job in attracting women. This could be due to perception – commodities are essentially “raw materials” for processing, which may be seen as a place for engineers or heavy-lifting personnel, which tends to be male-oriented. But within the commodities space, I would say that metals and energy are even more skewed towards men compared to the agricultural or softs sector. The latter has a softer image, and in my biased opinion, I think is better able to attract females. But there are areas within commodities that are very well represented by women – such as Finance, HR, operations and Research. At any rate, times are changing and I’ve never seen the commodities sector so keen to employ women as I have now. It is only a matter of time before the balance improves here too.

Do you think being a woman has held back your career?

Not at all. I joined the sector over 20 years ago when investment banks were just beginning to build their commodities desk in anticipation of the bullish trend following the rise of Chinese demand for energy, metals and food. At that point, the search was on for anyone with a good background in commodities – which I had. Since then I have always tried to be the best version of me, as a commodities employee, that I could possibly be, which in turn gave me recognition and allowed me to compete with other men on a level playing field. So even though I would typically miss out on male oriented after-work drink ups, golfing networks or what have you, I strived to build value by outperforming my peers during work hours, for example.

Is travel a factor: women may be less safe than men going out to get business, particularly in developing countries?

Developing countries are not inherently unsafe, local knowledge is important and we have many female colleagues in our origin locations. A good company will never force you to travel to dangerous locations and staff are counselled to take precautions when traveling on business. Inevitably, when women get married and have families, travelling far and often becomes less easy. This is something that is not unique to commodities though – it’s across businesses. To solve this, the goverment and companies alike will have to come up with solutions that enables mothers to travel more often knowing that they have reliable alternative home arrangements during their absence.

Women tend to work better in networks rather than in confrontation. Do you think the way that the commodity trade is evolving will result in more women being involved.

Commodity trading doesn’t always have to be confrontational! And some women are quite good at it any way – it all depends on individual personalities. I’ve yet to come across a role in Commodities that is truly gender specific, I think women can be as good as men (if not better) in many of the roles that are traditionally male oriented. The challenge is to get women to apply for those roles. At ED&F Man, we’ve been actively trying to boost women applications at all levels. We train hiring managers on unconscious bias and we promote the idea of commodities as a career to  both our own employees and to young people who we mentor (e.g. through our relationship with Future Frontiers). We have a Women’s Network which was set up to encourage women to aim high at ED&F Man and in our wider industry. Commodity companies need to be more active in recruiting at an early stage. Some universities, for instance, offer very good courses in Commodities (e.g. Geneva, City or Cass BS) – which have opened up the field for women as well as providing a very strong talent pool.

What advice would you give to a woman looking to enter commodities?

I would say go for it! I have enjoyed every minute of my career in commodities, and have no desire to switch to another industry. Commodities are real, tangible and international. It’s influenced by changing politics, weather and economic trends so there’s never a dull moment. None of this is gender specific, and as long as you are good at what you do, women from all countries and backgrounds should join the sector. Women should look for a company willing to invest in people and ideally find a mentor / sponsor. It’s important to be open minded and confident in your abilities (and definitely not a shrinking violet), as there is a lot of scope to move around the industry and flourish. Teams that have a good gender balance are known to be high performing, so if the Commodities industry can boost the intake of women, can you imagine how far it can go?

Thank you Kona!

PS: We are keen to interview successful women in commodities. If you would like to make your voice heard on the subject please contact us.

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

The four ABCDs – ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus – all reported that the US-China trade dispute had hurt their bottom line in 2018 despite some initial optimism. Bunge’s agribusiness reported a gross profit of USD 203 million in the fourth quarter, down from USD 238 million last year, and a net loss available to shareholders, mostly because of the truce in the US-China dispute which devalued its Brazilian soybean stocks. Similarly, Wilmar reported a 50% fall on year in net profit during the quarter, at USD 201 million, mostly due to losses in its sugar segment. Regardless, the CEO said the company might look at expanding its sugar business this year, such as buying Olam’s two sugar mills in India if the price was right. Olam, meanwhile, announced that it has purchased the largest cocoa processor in Indonesia, BT Cocoa, to help it integrate its cocoa supply chain.

Looking forward, volatility could remain high next year despite the recent US-China truce. A survey revealed that most US firms expect the situation to stay the same or deteriorate further. Analysts also suggested that the enforcement of any trade agreement could create more uncertainties. But while volatility used to be perceived as an opportunity to increase profits the trade houses’ performance suggests this is not necessarily the case.

Slowing demand growth and increasing transparency are also making it harder for traders to make money. A grains broker argued that “agriculture, in general, is doing a phenomenal job of producing goods, but unfortunately demand is relatively slow.” A hedge fund manager added that to survive, traders are either going to have to reposition themselves in the supply chain or move to riskier, less transparent markets.

On the brighter side, the shift from meat to vegetable protein is expected to change world trade flows and create new opportunities. Contrary to the huge volumes of grains traded globally, pulses, for the moment, are eaten mainly where they are produced but this could soon change.

Talking of grains, the USDA noted that Russia will take the lead as the world’s largest wheat exporter this year, after doubling output over the last 10 years. New wheat varieties, better harvesting technology and improvements in port and rail infrastructure have allowed Russian wheat to compete with US origin even in Mexico.

The share price of Kraft Heinz dropped 27% last week, wiping out close to USD 16 billion in market value, following a series of bad news such as an asset write-down and an SEC subpoena. Analysts said Kraft Heinz might be facing an existential crisis as it has failed to adapt to changing consumer tastes and stagnating sales. Some market commentators noted a pattern where large EU firms such as Nestle, Unilever and Danone, have so far been successful in staying relevant. Nestle, for one, has just released an organic version of Nescafé Gold in the UK.

However, researchers note that large corporations are failing to make their core brands more environmentally friendly, which is just as important as encouraging innovative start-ups. Nonetheless, the CDP research firm ranked Danone and Nestle as the top two companies most involved in addressing climate change, out of 16 major consumer brands. The last position went to Kraft Heinz.

A new FAO report highlighted that our food system is destroying biodiversity, which in turn is putting our whole food supply at risk. The head of the WWF said he was optimistic that humans could find long-term solutions, through changing diets, technology, and reduced waste but solutions might not be as obvious as they seem. This crop scientist argued that the boom of “ugly” fruits and vegetable shops in the US is not helping reduce waste – as farmers would otherwise plough them back into their fields or fed them to animals. A better solution, she adds, would be to move away from open-field farming towards much more efficient greenhouses. Similarly, after trying to live sustainably for a week, this VICE journalist said individual efforts to live sustainably won’t matter much unless large corporations and government took measures too.

In Africa, a think tank published a report warning food investors of the risk of legal disputes over land ownership. It pointed to recent policies in Liberia and Sierra Leone which potentially exposes agricultural producers to challenges by local populations claiming ownership of the land. The solution, the report says, is to develop long-term relations with locals.

Finally, in Sudan, exporters of gum arabic have been able to survive political unrest and US sanctions thanks to strong international demand. That’s because gum arabic, which is extracted from the acacia tree, is an essential ingredient in soft drinks. So much so that the US had exempted it from its sanctions. Sudan exported 60% of world supplies of gum arabic in 2018.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

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Macron promises greater farmer protection from overseas ‘threat’

French President Emmanuel Macron has promised to protect EU farmers from overseas competition, using a speech Saturday to call for an increase to the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) budget despite the impact of Brexit on its finances.

Macron called for the EU to pursue an “ambitious” Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), vowing that its budget would not be reduced as a result of the UK leaving.

CAP negotiations remain underway, with its policies and budget for 2021-2027 expected to be announced by June.

The CAP currently accounts for about 40% of the EU’s budget – or around €58 billion a year – with France the single biggest recipient, taking about 15% of that pot.

But the departure of the UK from the EU sheduled for March 29 has threatened to blow a hole in the EU’s finances, with an expected shortfall of €12-14 billion a year splitting member states, some of which have been hoping to cut their contributions.

External threats

Calling for EU unity on the issue, Macron said “the real risk facing our agriculture is not … competition between European states,” instead warning the bloc is threatened “from the outside by great powers that … consider food a commodity”.

“Today French wheat is competing on the world market with Russian or Ukrainian wheat, produced on farms of thousands of hectares, ten times larger than the largest of our farms,” Macron said.

While France’s wheat sales have managed to hold up this year, the wider EU has plummeted 20% after a poor harvest left exporters struggling to compete with lower-cost producers after a poor harvest.

And longer-term, the EU has lost market share in some of its traditional buyers as Black Sea producers have boosted production.

Macron urged the development of higher quality wheat in order to differentiate itself from, and to compete wit,h Russian and Ukrainian exports, as well as boosting its ties with Africa as a destination market.

Macron also spoke of the need for a “red line” in the EU’s trade negotiations with the US on agriculture, calling for “food sovereignty” and warning that importing genetically modified soybeans leaves EU livestock and poultry at the mercy of price volatility.

Macron’s struck a similar tone to that of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who warned last week that the EU’s increased soybean imports from the US would be under threat if meaningful progress in trade talks could not be made.

Brussels has been at pains to keep agriculture off the table in ongoing trade negotiations with Washington, although the US has been pushing to open the EU market to its exporters.

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Sugar: The New Reality

The campaign against sugar has picked up pace since the start of this year and shows no sign of slowing. The Sunday Times dedicated the cover of their weekly magazine to sugar, while the Arte television channel in Europe rebroadcast the 2016 Canadian documentary “Sugar: the sweet lie”. Meanwhile Netflix is working on a programme to be broadcast later this year on corruption in the Florida cane sector.

The sugar sector continues to be taken aback by the success of the anti-sugar lobbyists. Sugar professionals have long known that per capita sugar consumption in developed countries has been falling since the 1960s, and they find it both unfair and illogical that sugar be blamed for the surge in obesity that began in the 1970s.

After all, according to the “Sweet lies” documentary (above), world sugar consumption increased 40 percent the 30 years up to 2016. However, in the same period, world population increased by 50 percent, from 5 billion in 1986 to 7.5 billion in 2016. As such, per capita consumption fell during the period.

What many in the sugar business had expected to be a short-term fad has accelerated the long-term down trend in consumption. Sugar has been demonised, and the fall in per capita consumption has reached the point where, in the UK at least, total consumption is now falling. This is the new reality facing sugar producers.

But as always, change, no matter how negative, always throws up new opportunities. It is the way that companies react to change that defines them. Negative can be transformed into positive.

Here are five ways in which some producers are already responding to change (and others should.)

1: Never give up

Companies must continue their work in trying to correct the widely held belief that sugar consumption is the cause of the global obesity epidemic. There are some signs that that tide may be turning, as in this recent BBC podcast, but for the moment the sugar sector is still swimming against the tide. No matter how tiring it may be, it needs to keep swimming! 

2: Consolidate, but responsibly

The sugar sector has responded to falling profits by cutting costs. Economies of scale are significant in sugar:  producers have tended to build large mills or refineries and maximise output to reduce unit costs. There is a tendency for cost cutting to result in increased supply—and increased supply usually results in lower prices that negate the costs saved.

When demand is stagnant the only way around this is close the smaller, less efficient mills and concentrate production in the bigger ones. This is already happening in Europe, but the social cost of mill closures can be high. Unfortunately, the social cost of a milling group going bankrupt can be even more horrendous.

3: Innovate, and innovate again

The sugar industry has a history of innovation, but to be more effective, innovation should be in the form of new products and processes, rather than simple cost cutting. Blockchain can reduce costs, but (see above) if it lowers costs across the whole sector it may just result in lower prices for the consumer. That’s a good thing, but a better thing would be a new product that the consumer may be willing to pay more for. That could be a sugar-stevia mix, or anything that comes under the SOFT (Sustainable, Organic, Fair Trade) category. There are opportunities here to turn a commodity into an ingredient.

4: Add even more value via by-products

Sugar cane and beet are wonder crops with multiple by-products. Ethanol can be used to drive cars or make bio-plastics (and fertilizer from the vinase). Bagasse can be burned for electricity generation or used as building material. Beet pulp can be fed to animals, or be used as an environmentally friendly alternative to salt on winter roads. There is a huge opportunity for the sector to add even more value to their by-products

5: Diversify across supply chains

As the Executive Director of the ISO recently pointed out, some of the most successful companies in the sugar sector currently are the most diversified, whether into pizzas or fruit concentrates. It can be tricky for a company to shift focus from its core competence, but it can be worth the effort. Trade houses are already moving that way, turning themselves into food companies, and sugar companies are slowly following.

So, in conclusion, the world is changing and the sugar sector is changing with it. Of course it could do more–and will do more–but the first steps are promising.

© Commodity Conversations ®

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Glencore Agriculture saw its attributable share of profits for 2018 drop by 79% on year to USD 21 million in 2018. This was due to smaller grains and sugarcane crops in Australia, Argentina and Brazil, lower margins as well as issues related to the US/China trade war. The group’s Canadian handling operations did well, on the other hand, thanks to what Glencore called its “best-in-class efficiency and service.”

Glencore Agri, as well as COFCO, announced they were now part of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) and its Soft Commodities Forum (SCF). COFCO’s chairman argued that the world’s food system needed to be transformed to improve diets and help farmers and the environment. As part of WBCSD’s goal of finding ways to feed the world sustainably, members of the Soft Commodities Forum – including Louis Dreyfus, ADM, Bunge and Cargill – said this week they would step up their commitment to increase transparency and traceability in Brazil’s soy supply chain.

Cargill has applied to patent a ‘high protein egg chip’ in a bid to offer a low-fat snacking alternative. The company said that snacking was becoming increasingly common, often replacing meals and that people wanted healthier options. In the Netherlands, the company is investing USD 23 million in its instant starch production facility to meet growing demand from the ready meals, sauces and soups’ segments.

Nestle announced a plan to start selling some 24 Starbucks products as part of what the CEO called “meaningful innovation.” A Forbes analyst pointed out that this was part of a wider strategy to adapt faster to change as activists and hedge funds are becoming increasingly vocal. FAIRR, for instance, which is a network representing investors worth a combined USD 11 trillion, sent letters to the world’s main fast food companies last month asking them to address climate risk in their supply chain.“Companies often respond quickly when large shareholders are asking them questions. Private sector and institutional investors are a huge lever of change,” a FAIRR official said.

Campbell Soup, too, has been under pressure from stakeholders to become more resilient and sustainable. The group teamed up with Land O’Lakes last year and launched a digital platform that collects data from farmers to help them become more efficient. Campbell expects that sustainability will help reduce costs in the long run. However, a group of experts warned that most of the world’s agricultural data was in the hands of a few multinationals, which increased the risks of conflict of interests as well as marginalised smaller players. They said policies were needed to ensure that the merger of big agricultural companies, especially seed companies, did not also lead to the “over-consolidation of farm data.”

The EU is spending the equivalent of 20% of its total budget encouraging livestock farming, according to research by Greenpeace. Europeans already consume twice as much meat and dairy as they should, the NGO pointed out, arguing that the funds would be better used to encourage grass-fed livestock as well as fruit and vegetable production. However, a source from the Commission disagreed with the numbers, adding that the funds were also used to save family farm models and not necessarily encourage industrialised farming. Also, the farmers’ association Copa Cogeca said that lower domestic meat production would not lead to a drop in meat consumption but rather to a rise in imports.

A recent FAO study suggests that livestock is, in fact, a very good way of converting forages which are not fit for human consumption into an important source of protein and nutrients. The study found that almost 90% of what is fed to livestock is inedible for humans and that a big part of the grazing areas is unusable to grow crops. Looking at dairy, total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have increased by 18% between 2005-2015, but emissions per kilo of milk have actually fallen by 11% in the same period thanks to improved efficiency. Researchers in Canada, meanwhile, are trying to correlate the amount of methane emitted in cow burps with the cow’s DNA in a bid to breed cows that produce less methane.

Taking it a step further, the tech company behind SellMyLivestock (SML) just launched “Tudder,” an app designed to help farmers find the right cow by using a model similar to the dating app Tinder. The group’s CEO explained that it used data to help predict whether this would be a good match, including the kind of offsprings the cow is likely to have.

The Sustainable Trade Initiative (IDH) thinks the EU is unlikely to meet its target of using only sustainable palm oil by 2020. IDH explained that palm oil has become such a sensitive topic that food companies are even wary of using the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) logo to avoid attracting attention to the fact they use palm oil at all.

Finally, after eating expired food for a year without falling sick, the head of MOM’s Organic Market called for an overhaul of the “vague and inconsistent” regulations used to determine ”best by” dates. This corroborates a survey in the US which showed that consumers are confused about food date labelling which causes a lot of unnecessary waste. The man compiled his ‘Year of eating expired food’ on his blog.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

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ANALYSIS: Iran’s corn need key as Brazil’s export, import flow up-ended

Brazil’s position as one of the few exporters prepared to run the gamut of US sanctions and supply corn to Iran is helping to upend the country’s export dynamics, as geopolitics, trade fears and economics sees southern states exchange Brazilian corn for Argentine imports.

“The crazy thing is that ports in the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina are exporting corn this month – this is not normal at all,” one market source told Agricensus.

The news comes as the same states – which are home to a significant chunk of Brazil’s livestock sector – have imported corn from Argentina in recent days, in a move that often reflects Brazil’s high domestic prices and poor internal supply logistics.

“The state of Santa Catarina normally buys some corn from Argentina and Paraguay because those countries are close, because Santa Catarina needs more corn than it is able to grow and because it’s cheaper to buy corn from those countries,” Agrural’s Daniele Siqueira told Agricensus.

Santa Catarina is too far south to have a second safrinha crop, where much of Brazil’s corn supply comes from, but is too far away from the big producing states of Mato Grosso and Parana to make supply logistics cost effective.

While it is not unusual for Argentina to supply corn to Brazil, the fact that the states are also exporting corn draws together disparate threads of trade war, Iran sanctions, Argentina’s record-breaking crop and Brazil’s domestic situation.

Southern star

Line-up data for Brazil’s principle ports in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul – Rio Grande and Imbituba – shows nearly 650,000 mt of corn either loaded, loading or recently sailed.

“Farmers harvest soybeans later in those states and ports don’t have much to do right now… (but) they were not supposed to export corn, because their domestic market needs corn,” Siqueira said.

While the bulk is bound for Vietnam from Rio Grande, the port is also host to one cargo heading to the Middle East country, while Imbituba’s line-up is dominated by corn cargoes to Iran – with 197,122 mt set to sail.

Geopolitics

Which is where geopolitics kicks in – Iran has been increasingly reliant upon Brazilian corn supply since US president Donald Trump re-imposed sanctions on the country in December 2018.

That has seen some of the country’s auxiliary suppliers – countries such as Ukraine – show a degree of wariness about selling to Iran, fearing a backlash from the US.

That has consolidated Brazil’s position as the country’s number one corn supplier, and left Iran having to pay a substantial premium to secure supply.

“They are exporting to expensive destinations… the domestic market is equivalent to 120 cents over the March futures contract,” a second Brazil-based market source said.

That equates to around $194/mt, at a time when Argentina’s FOB Up River price stands at around $167.75/mt, according to Agricensus data – weighed down by expectations of a 46 million mt corn crop that is poised to come to market from March onwards.

While the financial reward is clear, the use of southern ports versus the typical main export hubs of Santos or Paranagua comes down in part to the timing of the soybean harvest and the ongoing strained trade relations between the US and China.

With Brazil’s soybeans are harvested as part of the country’s first crop, logistics typically switch towards soybeans at this time of the year – but China’s ongoing trade impasse with the US has added an extra incentive, and Brazil is gearing up for a big bean export performance.

Again, line-up data shows 89 ships are either waiting to load, loading or have recently sailed from Brazil’s main export hub of Santos.

Of these, only two are carrying corn, with 71 of the ships – some 80% – taking soybeans.

That leaves the southern states at a unique crossroads – meeting Iran’s supply needs through Brazil’s corn exports, while capitalising on competitive Argentine corn to meet its own needs. 

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We didn’t see that coming


At the end of every year since 2006, Rabobank asks their contacts in the food supply chain (“ranging from start-up founders to CEOs of zillion-dollar companies, and everyone in between”) the following question: “In the world of food, what surprised you the most over the last twelve months?” This year they received over 200 responses, some surprising, some less so.

Overall, respondents were “surprised” by the way the food supply chain is managing to respond quickly to constant changes in consumers’ demands. As one client wrote: “From delivering new products, changing business models, adjusting to consumer shifts, investing in innovation in various forms, and facing tough realities, the world of food is markedly different.” Heads are no longer being buried in the sand, as “it seems that everyone suddenly woke up.”

However there was still some criticism of “”Big Food,” with one respondent writing that he was surprised that “that big-food-brands companies are still struggling to grow despite most of them revising strategies and replacing CEOs.” Another was surprised that “the troubles faced by the Big CPGs, with brands my mom and grandparents used to buy, seemed to get worse over the past year despite so much renovation and reconfiguration of operations and marketing approaches.”

Some respondents talked about the way Big Food is trying to achieve top-line growth “via overpriced acquisitions that are shareholder wealth destructive”. Another remarked “companies continue to chase the unicorns by overpaying because they have few ideas of their own and get desperate.”

Many respondents expressed surprise at the rapidity with which consumers are embracing plant-based foods and/or a “flexitarian” diet. One client replied that he was surprised by “the acceleration of plant-based foods – and the growing acceptance of the products by non-vegan, non-vegetarian consumers regardless if their motivation is for health, animal welfare, or environment.”

Respondents were almost unanimous in their view that this is an enduring trend rather than a “fad”, but many stressed that the diet was not for everyone. One wrote, “Despite all the money flowing into replacement meat products, I don’t see the evidence of consumer desires for these products.” Another mentioned the “mismatch between what the media is writing about and reality.”

One “surprise” that was cited was the different ways in which consumers respond to technology in their food supply. Some clients detected a thawing in relations between food and science: although “consumers have been rejecting science more and more over the past decade” (such as the non-GMO movement), there is growing appreciation of the role of technology in many aspects of food and agricultural production”.

However, one respondent wrote he was frustrated by “the rising tendency for people to selectively believe science only when it aligns with their beliefs.” Others were surprised by the lack of pushback by food companies against the anti-science bias in food. One criticised “the willingness of some food companies to ignore science and chase consumer fads.” Examples included the proliferation of free-from claims on “products that never have, nor will have, certain ingredients.”

Some respondents expressed surprise “by how quickly capital and ideas are flowing to the nascent and undefined world of CBD, (cannabidiol – a non-intoxicating cannabinoid found in cannabis and hemp) both in food and beverages.” One expressed surprise that food companies and retailers are “embracing CBD given regulatory uncertainty, not to mention uncertainty around its effectiveness, proper dosage, etc.”

However, with the passing of the latest Farm Bill taking industrial hemp off the list of Schedule 1 narcotics (as defined by the Controlled Substance Act), one respondent wrote, “I almost see this as a space that can be as deep and wide as alcoholic beverages, and large strategics are having to act quickly to determine whether or not they want to take the risk of playing in this space (or not).”

Among other surprises cited in the survey was “the velocity and breadth at which #MeToo rippled through the restaurant industry, resulting in rapid response and swift changes.” Regarding the environment, one client wrote, “This year we did not see coming the food industry disruption associated with use of plastic straws.” And for trade, one mentioned “The rapidity with which the trade war with China escalated, the resultant tariffs, and their impacts on fruit and nut producers in the U.S.”

Finally, the last word is left to the respondent who wrote that he was “surprised by the ferocity of the arguments about whether low-fat or low-carbohydrate diets are better for weight status. Really, both work, provided people adhere to them, and calories really do matter.”