Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Authorities in Singapore announced that they are launching an investigation into statements by the Noble Group that are suspected to be false and non-compliant between 2012 and 2016. The scale of the investigation is unprecedented which is why the government took so long to respond to claims made by a former employee almost four years ago, although experts note that the investigation could proceed very quickly. The group was reportedly surprised by the timing of the investigation as it was rushing to finalise a USD 3.5 billion debt restructuring deal before a November 27 deadline. Investigators conceded that the probe could delay the plan, which would put the whole proposal at stake and potentially threaten the survival of the group who noted that the only alternative would be to file for insolvency.

The world’s major food companies have been involved in acquisitions worth USD 128.7 billion this year so far and show no signs of slowing down. Sources reported that Mondelez was looking to purchase Australia’s Arnott’s Biscuits and Denmark’s Kelsen Group, both biscuit makers. And four months after announcing that it was planning to sell its international and fresh food segments, Campbell Soup has drawn interest from Pacific Equity Partners and Kraft Heinz in bids that could reach USD 3 billion. Meanwhile, Kraft Heinz said it would sell its malted milk drink segment in India as demand is slowing shifting away from the high-sugar content drink that was originally marketed as a health drink. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) also said it was selling its malt-drink business in the country, with both Unilever and Nestle reportedly interested in a takeover with bids estimated at USD 3.1-3.5 billion.

India is a key market for Nestle, its CEO told reporters during a roundtable organised this week. He also highlighted that the firm learnt the importance of reacting quickly in the age of social media when the Indian government decided to ban the sales of Maggi Noodles because of concerns that they contained too much lead. The firm was eventually cleared, he noted, although it had to destroyed 30,000mt of noodles and never recovered its market share. Public concern is currently working against Nestle in Michigan, as campaigners criticised a new ad campaign which focuses on the free bottles delivered by Nestle to local residents. Activist highlight that Nestle only pays USD 200/year per plant to extract water in the state, while it was recently allowed to increase its extraction rate from 250gal/min to 400gal/min.

In California, voters overwhelmingly voted in favour of a new law that increases the minimum size of cages used for breeding pigs and calves, ignoring the comments by food producers who warned that prices will increase as a result. California will also ban the sale of products within the state if they do not meet the new standards, which is concerning producers around the country – and around the world – who now face higher costs if they want to compete. To complicate matters further, a study by the USDA, Michigan State and Iowa State showed that larger cages do not necessarily mean healthier animals, as hens were found to be twice as likely to die when given more space than the current convention.

White House policies are also grabbing the attention of major food producers, as Danone, Mars, Nestle and Unilever – all members of the Sustainable Food Policy Alliance (SFPA) – urged the government not to replace the Clean Power Plan with weaker regulation. In their public comments, they argued that, on top of threatening the world’s food supply, climate change was bad for business. Sustainability is one of the three main criteria that is expected to trend in the food industry next year, according to Mintel research. Mintel also noted that consumers are now looking at the entire product lifecycle when assessing sustainability. The other two criteria were health and convenience.

In Europe, a petition with close to 100,000 signatures is urging the European Commission to vote in favour of phasing out biodiesel from palm oil in February 2019. Palm oil could also end up at the center of a battle between two Italian giant competing for chocolate spread supremacy. Barilla is reportedly planning to launch a new spread in January to compete with Ferrero’s Nutella, which currently controls 54% of the global market. Barilla will target Nutella’s use of palm oil and use only sunflower oil, on top of having 10% less sugar and hazelnuts made in Italy.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

AgriCensus Report

ANALYSIS: Three ways Brazil’s president elect could impact ag markets

An opponent of environmental protectionism, a proponent of free markets and backed by Brazil’s huge agriculture industry, in six weeks’ time President-elect Jair Bolsonaro will take office.

Voted in on a promise to clean up Brazil’s crime-ridden streets and corrupt politics, Bolsonaro’s convincing 55-45% second-round election victory is expected to see the country shift sharply to the right of the political and economic spectrum after four terms of left-wing governments.

With unemployment at 13% and a staggering 14 million people out of work, Bolsonaro’s priorities are to cap pension spending, reform the tax system and get one of the world’s biggest agrarian economies moving again after two years of recession.

Outlined below are three ways in which the president-elect could also have an impact on agriculture policy.

Scrapping the minimum freight table

Tearing up the previous administration’s policy on setting minimum freight rates for trucks could be a quick start for Bolsonaro and his pro-free trade economist and likely finance minister Paulo Guedes.

Last week Bolsonaro said that he personally was not in favour of the policy, which was passed in the summer this year as a way of appeasing truckers who were striking over higher diesel prices.

He said his team would propose a solution once he takes office.

“To negotiate and change the freight table won’t be easy even for the new government. Farmers might have big influence in Congress… but truckers (and transportation companies behind them) are able to stop the country, like they did in May,” said Daniele Siqueira, a consultant with Agrural.

However, the current macroeconomic picture may have made that choice easier for him.

With soybean prices at Brazilian ports nosediving on the expectation that a thaw in China-US relations might see the former turn to the latter for beans, Bolsonaro will likely come under huge political pressure from farmers to drop the freight plan.

And the latest currency and oil price moves could potentially switch lobbying power from truckers to farmers as diesel prices in domestic currency terms have fallen sharply.

With WTI at $55/bbl, international oil prices are now 15% cheaper than at the time of the strikes, while the real is largely unchanged after collapsing in Q3 then firming in Q4 after the election.

“Whatever the outcome, this will continue being a headache for Brazilian farmers and agribusiness (as it) is restricting deals in forward sales or sales for future delivery in the Brazilian soybean domestic market,” said Steve Cachia, an analyst at Curitiba-based brokerage Cerealpar.

Chances and impact: Possible and large

Export tax

Earlier this month, a biodiesel lobby group called on the government to slap a 10% tax on soybean exports in a bid to shore up crush margins in Brazil, which have suffered due to high soybean prices.

With exports of soybeans likely to increase 20% on the year to over 80 million mt due to rampant Chinese demand, crush rates have slowed in Brazil.

Yet this comes at the same time the country is increasing its biodiesel mandate, which is likely to boost demand for soyoil – a product of crushing beans.

With farmers seen to be turning in record revenue due to the high prices, the idea of an export tax was floated to boost crush margins and rates.

However, it is not seen as a priority for the current administration.

“It’s hard to know [what will happen]. There is a new government being formed. But the big crushers are the same guys who are the big soy exporters. These guys put a lot of money in assets to export soybeans. I don’t think it would be so good for them to lobby for this,” said one exporter in Brazil who declined to be named.

Furthermore, the issue of high soybean prices could be cured later this month should China and the US agree to unwind import taxes on each others’ goods at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires.

And even if it is not, Bolsonaro is unlikely to do anything to annoy one of Brazil’s biggest trading partners when his priority is to boost trade.

“I don’t think he will take any step to endanger our relationship with China, for a very simple reason: Brazil is nothing without China, which is now our number one commercial partner, not only in soybeans, but in general,” said Agrural’s Siqueira.

“Bolsonaro might have said some silly things about China when he was a representative and during his presidential campaign, but now, as president-elect, he works with a very good team. People around him are aware of China’s importance and will help him keep a good relationship with the Chinese,” she said.

Chances: Unlikely and minimal

Opening up the Amazon

On the campaign trail, Bolsonaro promised to withdraw Brazil from the Paris Climate Accord, merge the nation’s agriculture and environment ministries and open up areas of the Amazon to mechanised agriculture, logging and mining.

He has said conservation reforms hinder economic development and that indigenous communities protected by them would much rather have “electricity, television, blonde girlfriends and the internet” than forests.

However, once in office, the rhetoric has calmed down, most notably on withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord and backtracking on merging the ministries, the latter on lobbying by farmers.

Yet that hasn’t allayed fears in environmental lobbies who are concerned that he will backtrack on biodiversity commitments.

The biggest impact this policy could have on the international agriculture markets would be long-term and by expanding soybean production.

Under national legislation dating back to 1965, landowners must keep up to 80% of their land in the Amazon forested, sparking debate about the benefits of environmental protection and whether it hinders economic development.

However, the former army captain is keen to unwind the impact of that law on certain areas so mechanised farming, mining and logging can take place in certain areas and help the country kickstart the economy.

“Eventually a balance will have to be reached and this will depend on the agribusiness and environmentalist lobbies. One thing seems to be clear, the concept is to use the Amazon in a responsible and sustainable way, but also make it an instrument for economic growth,” Cachia said.

In any case, he could be hamstrung by Congress, where power lies for changing the legislation.

Regardless, a bigger threat to prices would be an improvement in yields rather than an expansion in area, observers say.

Chances and impact: Likely and minimal

 

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Farming comes full circle

I grew up on a farm; well more of a smallholding really, in the county of Kent, in southern England. My father had moved there after leaving the army at the end of the Second World War, and had borrowed some money to buy a small bakery and teashop in Canterbury. The teashop was one of the few buildings that were left standing in the city after Hitler had tried to destroy British morale by bombing Canterbury Cathedral, the home of Britain’s Anglican religion. His bombs missed the cathedral, but destroyed pretty much everything else in the city.

My father expanded the teashop, buying some old army buildings to open a restaurant and an outside catering business. However food was in short supply and his only solution was to grow his own. He borrowed money from the bank to buy some land on the outskirts of the city. He started farming it, and eventually built on it the family home where I grew up.

At the beginning, the farm was geared exclusively to produce fruit and vegetables for the restaurant. He planted fruit trees on some of the land; the rest of the farm was given over to potatoes and other root crops like turnips, parsnips and swedes, as well as cabbages, beans, brussel sprouts – all of which made up the standard British diet at that time. (It was only later that he branched out into strawberries, and even later into asparagus.)

In addition to growing fruit and vegetables, he also kept some chickens to produce the eggs for the restaurant, and pigs to eat the waste food from the bakery and the restaurant. The chickens and the pigs also produced the manure that served as natural fertiliser for growing the vegetables. It really was a circular, sustainable agricultural operation that grew what we would now call “organic” food—all with zero waste!

The farm also provided me with a very happy childhood where I learned how to drive a tractor at eight and how to plough a field at ten. I regularly helped out on the farm after school, and during the long school vacations.

As Britain slowly recovered from the war, food production picked up and prices fell. It began to make more sense for my father to buy the food he needed for his catering business, rather than to grow it himself. But he still wanted the pigs to consume the waste food from the restaurant and the unsold bread from the bakery. He abandoned vegetables (except for an acre or so to supply our family), and planted barley as feed for the pigs. He also bought more pigs, started a breeding programme, and within a few years had a small industrial farm, raising and breeding pigs.

Despite his hard work the operation was never a success.

One problem was what to do with all the effluent from the pigs. It was something that my father never found an effective solution to, but which—because of the smell—made us very unpopular with our neighbours in what had slowly become a residential area.

Another problem was the difficulty in keeping the pigs healthy; they were kept in such close confinement that they were constantly ill—and needed a constant supply of antibiotics to keep them free of disease. The veterinary bills soaked up the meagre profits that the operation was making.

The biggest problem, however, was one of scale. The farm was simply too small to compete with other bigger units both in the UK and continental Europe. At the time, UK pork prices were low with cheaper imports coming in from Holland’s bigger and more efficient pig farms.

My father tried to tackle the health problem by giving up barley production, and using the land to let the pigs roam freely in the open air. The pigs were healthier (and arguably happier), and the vet bills went down. On the negative side, the pigs gained weight more slowly. In addition, my father had to now buy in all the barley and the grain that he needed to feed the pigs. The economics of the operation just didn’t work.

My father died at the age of 102 and the family gave up farming, selling the land to the local hockey club. It was just part of the UK’s move from farming (and industry) to services.

However I am sure that if my father were alive today he would still be farming, and would have taken his small farm full circle, back to producing organic food with zero waste, and selling his produce at the local markets. Whether he would be able to make a living out of it, however, would be another question.

This is an extract from my upcoming book on the agricultural merchandising business.

Images from pixabay.com

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Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Louis Dreyfus announced that their group chairperson, along with her family trust Akira, had secured the USD 900 million needed to buy out the shares of other family members thanks to a loan – the terms were not made public. The plan is for her to take ownership of most of the company to grow it further. She said she was also opened to “strategic partnerships,” which was taken to mean that outside investors would be welcome. In Brazil, Louis Dreyfus’ Biosev sugarcane milling group is looking to sell more mills. Biosev posted a net loss of BRL 156 million (USD 41.53 million) in the quarter ending September, although the CEO is hopeful that sugar and ethanol prices will recover next year.

Bunge and Atvos (previously known as Odebrecht Agroindustrial) are two of the groups investing in boosting sugarcane output in Brazil. Bunge built a seedlings centre at its Sao Paulo sugar mill which will double production by 2020 and serve its eight plants. Similarly, Atvos said it was prioritising investment in cane fields and spending at least BRL 600-700 million (USD 171 million) annually in a bid to increase capacity utilisation. The group continues to look for an outside investor and could consider an IPO, the CEO said.

Separately, the Brazilian president-elect clarified that, unlike what had been reported earlier, the agriculture ministry and the environment ministry will not be merged. This came to the relief of environmentalists who had opposed the move. The Brazilian farm sector is also set to benefit from deals signed this week between Cargill, Bunge and ADM and China’s government to export soybean sourced from South America, a sign that China is willing to go pretty far to avoid US origin amid the escalating trade war.

In the US, Cargill is scaling up its blockchain turkey traceability program to cover 200,000 turkeys in 30 states this Thanksgiving, up from 60,000 last year. Interestingly, and unlike many such moves that tend to be consumer-driven, the company said the push came from farmers. Cargill has also tied up with TGI Fridays for its new retail frozen beef patties. It explained that while other groups were trying to create a space for themselves in the retail market, consumers tend to prefer brands they already recognise.

Wilmar International said its net profit rose by 11% on year to USD 407 million in the third quarter (Jul-Sep) on the back of a better performance in the sugar, grains and oilseeds segments. Analysts pointed out that palm oil was a key contributor to the better performance as the segment registered a 93% increase in pre-tax earnings.

In a new campaign against deforestation rolled out this week, Greenpeace put pressure on Mondelez to stop procuring palm oil from suppliers linked to deforestation. The organisation said that, as of 2017, 22 out of the 25 palm oil producers identified as the least sustainable were still supplying the company despite its commitment to eliminate deforestation by 2020. Mondelez reacted to the campaign by saying it had dropped 12 suppliers. It also called on producers to accelerate efforts to improve traceability and transparency in the supply chain.

Greenpeace was also involved in an ad by UK’s Iceland Foods which has gone viral after it was banned from airing on television. The Christmas ad was found to breach political advertising rules because it is about the environment and was originally made by the NGO but it has already been viewed 13 million times on Youtube. Also, close to 700,000 people have signed a petition asking for the ban to be lifted. You can watch it here.

Nestle, which aims to source all of its palm oil sustainably by 2020, teamed up with palm oil producer Sime Darby Plantation to launch a helpline for workers to report issues around labour rights. This was on the recommendation of a report by the Fair Labor Association.

Chocolate producer Lindt & Sprungli also found itself on the receiving end of complaints by environmental and consumer groups – as well as a petition with 70,000 signatures – accusing it of being insufficiently committed to ending deforestation in its cocoa supply chain. As a result, the company published a statement this week saying it was working on implementing an action plan to make sure its supply chain will be free from deforestation by 2025.

The CEO of Danone North America said that consumers’ lack of trust in food companies, especially the major ones, was only growing. He complained that “Big Food” was seen at “Big Pharma” due in big part to scandals around pesticides and GMOs. He hoped that the company’s motto, “One Planet, One Health,” and the recent acquisitions of organic products companies will help people view the group as a “good food company.”

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Last week saw the resurgence of an old but familiar player in commodity trading as the chairman of Continental Grain Co and the descendant of Simon Fribourg, who funded the agricultural giant in 1813, was given a position on Bunge’s board. Continental Grain Co revealed in March that it held less than a 1% stake in Bunge but it has successfully lobbied for the change along with another stakeholder, the hedge fund DE Shaw & Co, who will also be added to the board.
Furthermore, the head of Continental Grain Co will chair a new strategic review that will seek to turn around Bunge’s declining returns, as the firm lowered its projected operating profit for the year to USD 1.2 billion. Commentators noted that this could signal a potential takeover, although others noted that the Fribourgs operate on a longer investment schedule and might seek to sell some assets while strengthening other operations.

Nonetheless, Bunge surprised analysts when it reported strong quarterly results, at USD 365 million, compared to USD 92 million last year. ADM, who was reportedly interested in purchasing Bunge, also reported better than expected quarterly results of USD 536 million, compared to USD 192 million last year. The firm said it had been able to find new markets to compensate for the Chinese tariffs, in part because the demand for US crops was bolstered by droughts in Brazil and Argentina.

While some were hopeful that the US midterm elections could lead to constructive changes, the former White House economic advisor said the success of the Democratic party was unlikely to change the administration’s efforts to curtail China’s trade policies through protectionist measures. Farmers are now bracing for a drawn-out trade dispute, while a recent study estimated that they could potentially lose USD 8 billion in exports because of tariffs, dwarfing the USD 450 million benefit expected from the new trade deal with Canada and Mexico.

The tariffs are also having an unexpected impact on the Canadian lobster industry. American lobster producers lost their access to China when it imposed a 25% duty, but some have been able to export their lobsters to Canada and then to China and Europe in order to avoid paying the tariffs. Unsurprisingly, the Lobster Council of Canada condemned the move, called transshipping, as it is displacing the demand for Canadian lobsters.

The New Food Economy also published this interesting piece which looks into the oversupply of cranberries. The USDA has agreed to destroy 108,800mt of cranberries this year to correct the surplus and avoid a collapse in prices, just as it did with dairy and blueberries.

Meanwhile, the debate surrounding the safety of glyphosate has moved from Californian courts to Germany, where the environment minister said the country hopes to end the use of the pesticide completely at some point in the future. Glyphosate has received EU approval until 2023 and Germany won’t be able to limit its use before then, however. In response, the head of Bayer CropScience said the firm would keep defending the science which suggests that glyphosate is safe. Back in the US, the Bayer AG CEO said the firm will consider settling some of its cases in the country. The number of lawsuits against glyphosate  jumped to 8,700 after a San Francisco court ruled in favour of a plaintiff, but the CEO explained that the firm was well equipped to defend the cases thanks to its experience with lawsuits against some of its pharmaceutical products.

Nearly 200 lawmakers from 80 countries debated on how to control rising healthcare costs caused by unhealthy diets at the first global summit against hunger and malnutrition. The lawmakers were divided over whether taxes on sugary products and banning their advertisement were more effective than education campaigns. Regardless, food and beverage companies are going ahead and doing their thing. For one, Coca-Cola Australia is offering a new zero-sugar product called Coca-Cola Batch Blends containing artificial sweeteners. Through this, the company is committed to cutting sugar across its portfolio by 20% by 2025 in Australia.

While the science and technology behind agriculture keeps evolving, another potentially significant change is happening: women who work in agriculture are no longer considered a “farmer’s wife” but often run entire successful operations. In fact, women farmers, ranchers and agricultural managers were on average paid more than men in 2017, according to the USDA, making it one of the ten disciplines were females outearn males.

Finally this week, the debate around whether non-dairy products, such as almond or soya drinks, should be called milk has gained humourous contribution in this funny video showing a farmer explaining how to “milk” an almond, starting with how to find its tiny udders.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Louis Dreyfus, Cargill, Bunge and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) announced they will be working together as part of an industry-wide collaboration to make agricultural shipping transactions completely standardised and digital. The companies explained that using blockchain technology and artificial intelligence (AI) would significantly reduce costs as well as improve transparency. The process, which has already started in grain and oilseed operations, should gradually be deployed for other commodities.

With this in mind, ADM and Cargill announced a joint venture called Grainbridge, a digital grains marketing platform to help farmers in North America market their grains. Cargill said the platform will be free and will let farmers use technology, such as data analytics, to improve their profitability. The platform is open to other grain companies too which will encourage farmers to use the ADM and Cargill transactions and contracts.

In the US, Cargill announced it developed robots to herd animals at its plants, including cattle and eventually turkeys, in a bid to improve animal welfare as well as to protect workers. The robot was approved by a famous animal behaviourist who said it was “a major innovation in the handling and welfare of farm animals.” The robot doesn’t look much like a human cowboy (you can check it out here) but it will be saying ‘Hey! Hey! Hey!’ to move the cows along. In Europe, Cargill announced it launched its Waxy Corn Promise program, an initiative to help it sustainably source all of its waxy corn – a type of corn used to produce starches.

Separately, Cargill Aqua Nutrition said it would not tolerate soy suppliers who violate its code of conduct, including deforestation. The announcement was made after a WWF report said that soybean demand had turned Brazil’s Cerrado area, one of the world’s most biodiverse places, into the planet’s most endangered region. Environmentalists are concerned the situation is about to get worse if Brazil’s newly elected president goes ahead with his plan to merge the ministries of agriculture and the environment. Similarly, the head of Greenpeace in Argentina said that “Argentina is in a forest emergency.” Nearly 25% of the country’s native forest has been cleared, with a big part going to grow soybean. An EU-based NGO said there was pretty much no traceability of soybean in the country.

Mondelez announced it would extend its Cocoa Life program to Brazil, a cocoa-sourcing sustainability program it already operates in Ghana, Ivory Coast, Indonesia, India and the Dominican Republic. The program will aim to reduce deforestation in the Amazon as well as improve the welfare of farmers through yield improvements, among other things. This comes at a time when IRAdvocates, the human rights advocacy group which is suing Nestle and Cargill for aiding and abetting child slavery in West Africa, said it is planning to attack other chocolate makers, including Mars. IRAdvocates argued that any company sourcing cocoa from the Ivory Coast was complicit in using child labour. Nestle said that the companies that were working the hardest to end child labour were being targeted.

Going back to the WWF report, it also found that the world had lost over half of its invertebrate species between 1970 and 2014 as a result of increasing demand for food, water and energy. The report argued that the risk of water species disappearing was particularly high because of plastic pollution.

Tesco and Nestle announced they joined the Global Ghost Gear Initiative (GGGI), a 91-member initiative which works to eradicate the number of nets and other fishing gear debris in the oceans, estimated to account for 10% of marine debris. Similarly, Danone said that by 2025  100% of its packaging should be ‘circular,’ by which it means recyclable, reusable or compostable, compared to 86% currently.

The concept of ‘circularity’ is also taking hold among those trying to combat food wastage. Researchers from a university in the UK have been looking at ‘circular economic thinking’ from the second world war as an inspiration, such as how to efficiently redistribute unsold food. Further up the supply chain, Maersk announced the second edition of its Food Track program which funds startups that look for technological solutions to the 1.3 billion mt of annual global food wastage.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Nestle and Unilever both reported strong third-quarter sales this week, helped by a strategy to increase prices, or “premiumisation”, as Nestle calls it. The firms pointed to higher oil prices and a stronger dollar as part of the motivations to increase prices, although Unilever said the move could eventually lead to a slight drop in sales volumes. They both expect overall sales to gain around 3% for the full year. Separately, Unilever dropped a plan to relocate its London HQ to the Netherland after investors opposed the move, although it did not comment on how it now plans to restructure after Brexit.

Nestle was also in the news this week because a federal appeals panel in San Francisco overturned the dismissal of a case brought forward by former child slaves who accused Nestle and Cargill of being complicit in forced labour in cocoa fields in the Ivory Coast. The appeals court said the firms took actions to make sure they would receive cocoa “at a price that would not be obtainable without child slave labour”.

Talking of price, the competitivity of US farmers is being put to the test as the trade war is pushing countries to impose duties on US agricultural products. China, for example, imposed a 70% duty on US pork which is a worrying development as the US National Pork Board says the country is “critical” for the industry to survive. Producers in Spain, Chile and Argentina are all reporting a surge in demand, but some still believe that the US will be able to compete by lowering prices thanks to their high efficiency, large-scale and low feedstock prices.

The situation does not look so promising for dairy producers in New York state who have been dealing with an oversupplied market for years, as demand for milk and Greek yoghurt is seeing a steady decline. Farmers are unlikely to lower production and are pushing to find new markets instead, resulting in a lot of waste. The Dairy Farmers of America cooperative reported that some 65,000mt of milk was dumped on farms in the Northeast as of July this year.

In a hope to remedy the situation, the US Trade Representative office said it will begin new rounds of trade talks with Japan, the EU and the UK, a move an analysis argued was vital for some industries. The US is also eyeing Japan, while the US Grain Council reiterated the importance of new pacts for the agricultural sector.

In Brazil, meanwhile, the head of Cargill said that the country’s biggest agribusiness challenge was the poor logistics infrastructure, adding that the situation was getting worse in part because of the high government-fixed truck rates. However, the National Land Transport Agency conceded that transport fees could be below the official freight table rates if all parties agreed and if it was clearly stated in the contract. The statement was made after they found that a large number of trucks were flouting the rules.

An analysis suggested that ABCD companies would have to spend at least BRL 700 million (USD 190 million) each if they wanted to run their own truck fleets in Brazil, which would end up costing them more than paying the 30% increase in freight rate. Regardless, a big part of the USD 1.4 billion Cargill has invested in Brazil over the last 6 years has been in logistics. On a separate note, the Cargill official said that the company is working on having 50% of its global workforce female by 2030.

Two worrying reports on climate change were published recently, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) said data for the first nine months of the year suggest that global carbon emissions will reach a new record in 2018, while the UN published a report saying that energy consumption needs to change drastically to avoid irreversible damage.

On a brighter note, food firms continue their push to develop cleaner and less polluting food. Applegate Farms, owned by the meat giant Hormel Foods, announced that it was investing in plant-based meat alternatives, while a report estimates that the plant-based market is now worth USD 3.7 billion. Food could also help the environment in another more unusual way: by making cement stronger. The IEA estimates that cement causes 7% of total CO2 emissions, but Britain’s Lancaster University found a way to use carrots to strengthen concrete by 80%, thus reducing the amount of concrete needed. Scottish-based CelluComp mixes in cellulose extracted from carrots, which it could also get from trees or most agricultural waste.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Artificial market intelligence

Trading on the international futures markets has often been compared to the game of chess. There are so many inputs to consider in futures trading, and so many possible moves, it has even been likened to three-dimensional chess. As in chess, you are never actually trading the various inputs; you are actually trying to second-guess how other market participants–or your opponent–will react to those inputs.

As Keynes so aptly put it, “Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.”

In his latest book, “21 Lessons for the 21st Century”, Yuval Noah Harari describes how artificial intelligence (AI) has transformed the world of chess. He writes,

“On 7 December 2017 a critical milestone was reached, not when a computer defeated a human at chess—that’s old news—but when Google’s AlphaZero program defeated the Stockfish 8 program. Stockfish 8 was the world’s computer chess champion for 2016. It had access to centuries of accumulated human experience in chess, as well as to decades of human experience. It was able to calculate 70 million chess positions per second. In contrast, AlphaZero performed only 80,000 such calculations per second, and its human creators never taught it any chess strategies—not even standard openings. Rather AlphaZero used the latest machine learning principles to self-learn chess by playing against itself. …

Can you guess how long it took AlphaZero to learn chess from scratch, prepare for the match against Stockfish, and develop its genius instincts? Four hours. That’s not a typo. For centuries chess was considered one of the crowning glories of human intelligence. AlphaZero went from utter ignorance to creative mastery in four hours, without the help of any human guide”.

Human chess players have sidestepped the problem (for them) of artificial intelligence by banning computers from human chess tournaments. Mr Harari writes,

“In human-only chess tournaments, judges are constantly on the lookout for players who try to cheat by secretly getting help from computers. One of the ways to catch cheats is to monitor the level of originality players display. If they play an exceptionally creative move, the judges will often suspect that this cannot possibly be a human move—it must be a computer move”.

As in chess, computers are now better than humans at trading futures. Fortunately—or unfortunately—futures markets cannot—or will not—ban computers from trading. This presents something of a problem for the physical trading houses, which have always relied on profits from trading futures to bolster/offset the tiny/negative margins that they make on trading physicals. As yet, the trade houses have failed to find a replacement for those missing profits.

But apart from the difficulties faced by the trading houses, what does it matter if computers now trade better than humans?

Futures markets have two roles to play: the first is to set a price (price discovery); the second is to provide a hedging medium. If computers are better at setting a price than humans, and if they provide lots of liquidity for physical hedging, then surely the world is better off.

As Mr Harari warns however, the difficulty arises when algorithms understand humans better than we understand ourselves. Once they do, computers can manipulate humans. This may already have happened in recent elections. If algorithms can nudge us into how to vote in elections, they can also nudge us into actions (such as selling at the bottom or buying at the top) in the futures markets.

Once futures market algorithms start to take money from physical hedgers, hedging becomes more expensive. When that happens, value is taken from producers and consumers of the physical commodity. Farmers are worse off, as too are consumers.

Some might argue that in any case trade houses always took value from the supply chain when they made profits from futures trading, already making farmers and consumers worse off. In that sense the owners of the algorithms have merely taken their place; the profits now go to the computers rather than the trade houses.

However, trade houses added value back into the process by efficiently moving physical commodities around the world. Apart from setting prices, it is hard to see what value algorithms return to the supply chain.

There is no obvious solution to this. Algorithms continue to get smarter while traditional physical trade houses continue to search for alternative business models. As Mr Harari writes,

“Already today, computers have made the financial system so complicated that few humans can understand it. As AI improves, we might soon reach a point where no human can make sense of it.”

Images under creative commons from pixabay.com

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Olam’s CEO argued that “the world’s food and agriculture system is broken” during a farmers’ event in India last week. Agriculture accounts for 25% of greenhouse emissions, uses 71% of the world’s fresh water and has already resulted in a 60% decline in wildlife. As such, he said, the world needs to invest nearly USD 50 billion in farm research to combat these problems against the current spend of USD 5 billion. At an event in the Philippines, he argued that companies needed to focus on environmental, social and governance (ESG) policies. Taking Olam as an example, he argued that it made it easier to get loans, reduced risk in the eyes of investors and unlocked opportunities in the fast-growing market for sustainable development.

At yet another event in Singapore, he asked all those involved in the rice supply chain to adopt the Sustainable Rice Platform (SRP) standard. He explained that rice fed half of the world’s population but its production was responsible for as many CO2 emissions as the whole of Germany. And because those who consume rice can’t afford a sustainability premium – unlike premium products like cocoa and coffee – it was up to brands and retailers to push for the change and educate consumers by procuring only SRP rice. “We must reimagine the whole supply chain,” an Olam official added. The company was also recently awarded an AGROW award for its involvement in helping small agriculture stakeholders.

Cargill has launched an alternative to fish oil for aquaculture feeds made from canola oilseeds. The company said that the plant-based product provided a much needed alternative source of omega-3 fatty acids to the fish industry at a time of growing demand. It is sustainable as it reduces the use of marine ingredients as well as entirely traceable since Cargill manages the whole value chain. In Ecuador, meanwhile, Cargill inaugurated a production plant which can make 165,000 mt/year of shrimp feed. Called the “world’s most modern shrimp feed plant,” it will contribute 20% of the 800,000 mt/year of feed produced in the country.

In India, the company has launched its first blended oil in the hope of capturing a bigger part of the country’s healthy oil consumption market. It also tied up with Safal, the retail arm of Mother Dairy that sells fresh fruits and vegetables, to sell its bran wheat flour.

In Ghana, Wilmar Africa is urging the government and private farmers to scale up the cultivation of palm oil to help produce its frying oil Frytol. The company currently imports 70% of the palm oil it needs. Wilmar also recently launched a cholesterol-free version of the oil in a bid to win over sceptical consumers, highlighting its health component and the fact that it was made locally.

The Danish Agriculture and Food Council along with the EU is trying to draft a system where a number on the label of a food product would reflect the impact on climate during its manufacturing. The policy would cover meat as well as plant products and would take into account water and land use, feed for livestock and CO2 emissions, among other things.

On a more global scale, seven food multinationals have come together under the Global Coalition for Animal Welfare to promote animal-friendly standards through the global food supply chain. Aramark, Compass, Elior, IKEA Food Services, Nestle, Sodexo and Unilever, which have a combined revenue of EUR 139 billion (USD 165 billion) and a consumer base of 3.7 billion people a day, will ensure animals are not caged, improve standards of chicken and fish welfare, antimicrobial resistance and adopt global criteria for transportation and slaughter.

In Australia, a 2017/18 audit found that half of Queensland’s cane farming businesses were not complying with the fertilisers law made to protect the Great Barrier Reef, according to Right to Information documents. No farmer has faced prosecution for flouting the rules or paid a fine, it said. The government launched a voluntary programme called best management practices under which it allowed farmers to decide the amount of fertiliser they wanted to apply within the legal limits. However, despite spending AUD 1 billion (USD 710.54 million) on this programme, there has been no indication of improvement in water quality, scientists said.

While the food industry has been the focus of sustainable and transparent policies, a Californian startup is hoping to bring the wine industry under the same lens. Ava Winery has managed to synthesise wine using molecular plant science, something they call “clean wine”. The founder explained that the aim was to make expensive wine more affordable, but also to bring transparency to the wine industry. At the moment, the use of a lot of ingredients, including pesticides sprayed on grapes, is not mentioned. The bioengineered wine should also use much less water and land.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Analysts are closely watching Louis-Dreyfus this week as it reported a 37% drop in net income for the first half of 2018, at USD 101 million compared to USD 159 million last year, amid challenging agricultural markets and recent internal reshuffling. The drop in profits was mostly attributed to a USD 65 million loss in soybean hedges, although the new CEO reassured the hedging would mean that returns from the crushing segment would be positive for the whole of 2018.
But the decision to award USD 400 million in dividends for 2016 and 2017 was described as worrisome by some who warned against removing so much equity in a difficult market environment. The dividend payment is part of a move from the majority shareholder who is aiming to increase her share in the firm from 80% to 96% by raising USD 900 million before a December deadline.

Louis-Dreyfus is not the only firm who has been reshuffling its staff recently, as Alvean – the joint venture between Cargill and Copersucar created to focus on sugar trading – confirmed that six more staff members have left since the COO left last month. The firm explained the move as part of an effort to maximise performance.

Agricultural markets have also kept an eye on the Presidential election in Brazil, as the right-wing Jair Bolsonaro won 46% of the vote on September 30, putting him in a good position to win the second round on October 28. Farmers have largely expressed their support for the candidate, as he promised to strengthen land ownership rules and reinforce security for rural producers. Both the soya association Aprosoja and coffee cooperative Cooxupe said most of their members would vote for him.
More recently, his agricultural advisor pledged that if elected, Bolsonaro would lower the fines imposed on farmers found breaking environmental laws and exit the Paris agreement because of the way it aims to avoid deforestation in the Amazon. Meanwhile, coffee and sugar futures have gained some ground following the first-round results, which have also strengthened the Brazilian currency.

While the Brazilian candidate might seek to ease deforestation laws, Wilmar pledged this week to accelerate its effort to reach a no deforestation, no peat, no exploitation (NDPE) palm oil supply chain, following a protest by Greenpeace in Sulawesi. Nonetheless, the NGO said the proposed plan was inadequate because suppliers would not be required to provide maps of their concessions. In response, Wilmar said forcing all its suppliers to provide maps might not be legal, although it pledged to work on a process to reach the goal by 2019.

Wilmar said it would reach a NDPE palm oil supply chain by 2020, which is also the deadline many major food producers have for guaranteeing deforestation-free ingredients. Unilever, Mars and Nestlé all have a 2020 no-deforestation deadline, while Nestlé said 58% of its palm oil supply was already free of deforestation.

Supporters of strong environmental laws highlight the importance of a sustainable supply chain in securing and maintaining preferential trade access. This week has also seen the EU re-evaluate the duty-free access it offers to some countries, as it launched a six months review of the duty-free quotas given to Cambodia and Myanmar because of human rights concerns. Cambodian exports could thus lose duty-free access in the next 12 month, although the Cambodian President remained defiant and defended the country’s sovereignty.

At the very end of the supply chain, Walmart is instructing some of it suppliers to register product information in a blockchain-based data platform, operated by the IBM Food Trust Network. Under the Walmart Food Traceability Initiative, suppliers of fresh leafy greens will have until 2019 to comply. While the move will initially aim to improve the safety of products by avoiding or controlling disease outbreaks, the firm said the platform could be extended to measure and manage sustainability criteria, such as soil health or irrigation methods.

Supermarkets also have to contend with rising concerns surrounding food waste, which is where the Israel-based Wasteless hopes to help, having secured USD 2 million in funds this week. The firm has developed a software which allows supermarkets to vary prices based on the date of expiration of products. A trial in a Spanish shop resulted in a 30% drop in waste and a 6% increase in revenue.

This summary was produced by ECRUU