Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Cargill has launched the initial phase of its new grain terminal in Ukraine’s Yuzhny port, in partnership with local company MV Cargo. The terminal, which is one of the biggest investments the country has seen in a while, should be handling 1 million mt of grains by this autumn. Techagro also announced a plan to build three grain terminals at the same port that would handle 4.5 million mt by 2021.

In Argentina, Cargill hiked its stake in Glucovil Argentina to 70% by buying 40% of Ledesma’s holdings. The family now holds a 30% stake which Cargill can buy until 2023.

Bunge announced it opened a new wheat mill in Mexico. Located near the port, from where the wheat is imported, the mill will process and re-export the wheat to the rest of Latin America. In Brazil, meanwhile, Bunge announced it had completed the sale of its 49.9% share in the algae business SB Renewable Oils to joint venture partner Corbion.

Wilmar is planning to release the Indonesian version of an online system designed to help its palm oil suppliers become more sustainable. It already launched one in Malaysia ahead of the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil national certification becoming compulsory next year. The questionnaire, which results in a score, will give Wilmar an idea of which areas need to be addressed and develop further training or workshops accordingly. The company has also designed a similar system for Latin America.

Danone’s dairy arm, Centrale Danone, is facing losses in Morocco after a boycott from consumers caused its sales to fall by over 50%. To cope, the company has reduced by 30% the amount of milk it buys from farmers and has had to lay people off. The boycott, which also affected fuel stations, was started to protest high prices from foreign brands.

Coca-Cola aims to recycle all of its packaging by 2030. In Zimbabwe, the company is now collecting over 15% of the PET produced, up from just over 7% in 2017. Similarly, in Uganda it invested in Plastics Recycling Initiative which recycles 14mt of plastic every day while providing an income for plastic collectors.

A report from the UN showed that some 50 countries are actively working to fight plastic pollution. Additional taxes and outright bans have been, in some cases, effective, such as in Eritrea, Morocco, China and Ireland but have failed in other areas mainly because of the lack of enforcement. The head of the UN environment argued that plastic in itself was not bad, the problem was what we did with it. As such, the report suggested businesses and plastic producers needed to incentivise recycling more.

In a bid to capture more of the value chain and to control prices, Ivory Coast and Ghana are planning to work together on cocoa production and marketing. Both countries, which represent two-thirds of the global cocoa production but where very little processing happens, want to build warehouses, coordinate production and encourage local consumption. Many analysts are sceptical this will work, however, arguing that previous attempts to coordinate efforts have failed.

Ghana did send a delegation to China to try to convince consumers of the benefits of cocoa and look for a market for its premium cocoa beans, semi-finished and finished cocoa products.

Meanwhile, chocolate maker Barry Callebaut has partnered with growers in Ghana and Ivory Coast to replant trees infected with the swollen-shoot virus disease as part of a wider sustainable farming initiative.

Qatar has become a self-sufficient milk producer just a year after its neighbouring countries cut off diplomatic and trade ties and soon expects to start exporting. Before the blockade, the country imported all its milk from Saudi Arabia and had no dairy herd. The cows were flown in from the US and could reach 20,000 head-count by 2019.

Neighbouring Dubai, meanwhile, could soon be growing paddy in its desert on a commercial scale. A group of Chinese scientists have successfully grown rice in diluted sea-water in a test project which yielded 7,500kg/ha, over twice the world average. Ultimately, the aim would be to cover 10% of the UAE, although some question whether the region has enough fresh water to dilute into the seawater.

Oxford University and Agroscope researchers published a huge database of the environmental impact of 40 food products across the world, using data from 40,000 farms and 1,600 processors. Have a look at the impact of 9 animal and 6 vegetable products here.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

As old as the hills

A friend recently sent me a link to one of the UK’s earliest-recorded “Commodity Conversations” – a letter sent by a certain Octavius to his brother Candidus in around AD 100. The letter is part of the Vindolanda tablets, a rich source of information about life on the northern frontier of Roman Britain. Written on fragments of thin, postcard sized wooden leaf-tablets with carbon-based ink, the tablets date to the 1st and 2nd centuries AD (roughly contemporary with Hadrian’s Wall – photo above).

The documents record official military matters as well as personal messages to and from members of the garrison of Vindolanda (photo below), their families, and their slaves. Highlights of the tablets include an invitation to a birthday party held in about 100 AD, which is perhaps the oldest surviving document written in Latin by a woman.

In his letter, Octavius uses a variety of financial idioms and a few technical terms. The letter shows entrepreneurial initiative; the sums of money and goods mentioned are significant. The two brothers are involved in the supply of goods, mainly animal hides and grains, to the military. There is no way of knowing whether Octavius is a civilian entrepreneur and merchant, or a military officer responsible for organising supplies for the Vindolanda garrison.

The letter refers to credit arrangements, evidence for the operation of a cash economy. He writes,

“I have several times written to you that I have bought about five thousand modii of ears of grain, on account of which I need cash. Unless you send me some cash, at least five hundred denarii, the result will be that I shall lose what I have laid out as a deposit, about three hundred denarii, and I shall be embarrassed. So, I ask you, send me some cash as soon as possible.”

He instructs his brother to

“See with Tertius about the 8½ denarii which he received from Fatalis. He has not credited them to my account. Know that I have completed the 170 hides and I have 119 modii of threshed bracis. Make sure that you send me cash so that I may have ears of grain on the threshing-floor. Moreover, I have already finished threshing all that I had.

He then writes about what appears to be a customer default,

A messmate of our friend Frontius has been here. He was wanting me to allocate (?) him hides and that being so, was ready to give cash. I told him I would give him the hides by 1 March. He decided that he would come on 13 January. He did not turn up nor did he take any trouble to obtain them since he had hides. If he had given the cash, I would have given him them.

As I wrote in my book, Commodity Conversations, commodity trading is much older than the Roman Empire:

In ancient Mesopotamia, around 1750 BC, the sixth Babylonian king, Hammurabi, created one of the first legal codes: the Code of Hammurabi. The code allowed for goods and assets to be sold for an agreed price for delivery at a future date. The code required contracts to be in writing and witnessed and allowed those contracts to be sold or assigned to others. This is the first recorded incidence of derivatives, in the form of forward and futures contracts, with trading carried out in the temples.

A few years back, Greg Page, at that time the executive chairman of Cargill, spoke at the FT Commodity Conference in Lausanne. He quoted Libanius, a Greek teacher of rhetoric, from his Orations III, written in the fourth century,

God did not bestow all products on all parts of the earth, but distributed his gifts over the different regions, to the end that men might cultivate a social relationship because one would have need of the help of another. And so he called commerce in to being, that all men might be able to have common enjoyment of the fruits of earth, no matter where produced.

Greg continued with his own view of the commodity business,

“Trading, or exchanging goods, has long underpinned human progress, and the interdependence that comes from trading creates the real capacity to raise living standards. Trading across national boundaries is a necessity, not a luxury, if the world wants to better serve the needs of its citizens. And as we face a global population reaching nine billion by midcentury, an even greater proportion of the world’s food will need to move across oceans to feed the people. National self-sufficiency in food will not suffice. Trading has always been important and will always continue to be so.”

There is not much I can add to that!

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

The White House announced on May 29 that it will publish a list of Chinese goods that will fall under new USD 50 billion tariffs on June 15, frustrating US farmers and Chinese trade negotiators who are struggling to keep up with the uncertainty and frequent reversals. Last week, the trade secretary claimed that the two countries had agreed to avoid imposing new tariffs. On the other hand, experts suggest that markets are now ignoring such announcements, while US grain farmers said they actually don’t expect the US to go ahead with the tariffs.

Bayer said it hopes to be able to start integrating Monsanto in two months, after the US antitrust regulators approved a plan for the USD 62.5 billion takeover. The new company would have annual sales of about EUR 20 billion, dwarfing sales of the two other competitors who were also recently engaged in mergers, namely DowDuPont who has EUR 12.4 billion in annual sales and  ChemChina-Syngenta with EUR 11 billion in sales. BASF, the fourth largest agricultural supplier, is also expected to benefit as it plans to purchase assets worth USD 9 billion Bayer agreed to sell as part of the antitrust approval.

Cargill plans to have a 100% transparent and sustainable palm oil supply chain by 2020, according to the group’s supplier’s global sustainability director, who said 96% of the volume was already traceable to mills and 55% traceable to plantations. The company will be using a satellite mapping tool this year to identify and improve issues in the supply chain. The director said they are using lessons learnt from the soy and cocoa supply chain.

India’s Adani Group is likely to take over Shree Renuka Sugar‘s sugar segment from Wilmar Sugar. A board member of Renuka Sugar and a senior executive of Adani group said Adani Wilmar may be interested in adding sugar to its product mix and to leverage the latter’s distribution network. Wilmar International will also launch an open offer for a 25.14% stake from June 4-15 to help its arm Wilmar Sugar increase its stake in Renuka Sugar from the current 39%. Separately, Adani Wilmar reportedly increased its offer to acquire the bankrupt edible oil refiner Ruchi Soya group.

Nestle is downsizing its workforce in Switzerland by 5% and relocating some positions to Spain and Portugal in a bid to reduce costs, in part because of the strength of the Swiss Franc. It will also close its headquarters in Kenya. The CEO said the group will spend USD 706 million in restructuring this year. The Research Centre and the Institute of Health Sciences will be merged into a single entity to speed up the development of new products. Nestle wants to accelerate research efforts amid growing competition from smaller rivals and increasing preference for organic, vegan and gluten-free products.

In Spain, the company launched its first range of organic products which should grow to represent 10-15% of the turnover within 5 years. The regional head said this was in answer to consumer demand and that “Nestle has decided to bet heavily on organic products.” Meanwhile, in China, Nestle has sold its 95% stake in a raw milk powder factory.

And Pepsi bought Bare Foods Co, the maker of healthy chips made from beet or baked apples, to further expand its health-conscious food offering.

French MPs voted down a proposal to ban the use of glyphosate, although a presidential spokesperson clarified that the government was still committed to phasing out the use of the herbicide by 2021. In another twist, the Belgian government said recent scientific research on glyphosate did not conclusively show any health risks.

An investigation by The Guardian and the Bureau of Investigative Journalism found an increasing number of industrial-scale beef fattening units in the UK – an area which is overall unregulated and unacknowledged – causing concern that the country’s agriculture is developing towards the type of industrial-scale farming common in the US. The environment secretary said they would fight against this US-type of farming but producers argue that it’s the only way to be cost competitive.

Organisations in the UK are working hard to redistribute food that would otherwise be thrown away. In 2017, the food bank Trussell Trust distributed 1.3 million parcels of food, up 13% from the previous year. Similarly, Charity FareShare gives food to some 750,000 people every week, an increase of 60% on year. Demand from food charities is increasing with an estimated 1 in 8 people experiencing hunger in the country.

In the first research of its kind, a study found that rice could have as much as 10% less protein, 5% less zinc and 30% less vitamin by the end of the century due to the increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the air. Rice represents half the calorie intake of around 2 billion people, which means the nutrient loss would have a significant impact on health.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

One Belt One Road

I participated last Sunday in the Vogalonga in Venice. The 30km race was restricted to human-powered boats, of which there were about 3,900, with around 8,000 rowers and paddlers. It was quite a spectacle!

As we were rowing through the canal in Murano we stopped at a (random) landing stage to change our crew around. The owner of the landing stage (and house) appeared with a bottle of sparkling wine and invited us into his garden for lunch. We gratefully accepted, spent over an hour with him and his wife, and gave up any hope of winning the race—not that we had any hope of doing so anyway!

As I rediscovered Venice during the rest of the weekend I was reminded how oriental the city is; at times I felt that I could have been in Bukhara in Uzbekistan or Isfahan in Iran. The city’s architecture, and its immense wealth, came from the fact that it was at the end of the Silk Road.

A Chinese TV crew interviewed us as we launched our boats before the race, and I was struck by the number of Asian tourists in the town. One local told us that the city was “flooded” now not by the sea but by a wave of Chinese tourists who were “travelling the new silk road” to Venice.

China is indeed building a new silk road: they call it “One Belt, One Road”. It is really two projects: The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road.

Costing as much as $8 trillion and affecting 65 countries, it will stretch from the edge of East Asia all the way to East Africa and Central Europe by the time of it’s estimated completion in 2049.

The Chinese government calls the initiative “a bid to enhance regional connectivity and embrace a brighter future,” while one speaker at the recent FT Commodity Conference in Lausanne described it as “the most important thing that is going on in the world that everyone is ignoring”.

The Washington Post recently criticised the initiative, suggesting that it might be a big mistake.  They wrote that the initiative “evokes romantic comparisons to the ancient Silk Road, but there is a more recent chapter of history that urges caution. More than a century and a half ago, the United States was a rising power racing westward, building transcontinental railways that delivered limited benefits and exacted a high cost from society.”

The first time I became aware of the One Belt One Road initiative was when I saw this sign a couple of years back above some road construction work in Central Asia,

This is a better map., originally from The Wall Street Journal, that shows the Maritime Belt stretching to Mombasa in Kenya and and the road/rail line to Rotterdam in Europe.

You can also find an excellent infographic here.

As we left our lunch hosts and headed back across the lagoon to Venice we were caught in an hour-long traffic jam as literally thousands of boats tried to enter the Canal Regio, the narrow but stunningly beautiful waterway that leads to the Grand Canal–and the end of our race in St Mark’s Square. As we inched our way forward through a tangle-mangle of dragon boats, rowing boats, canoes and pedalos, I couldn’t help thinking that if the Chinese had had anything to do with it they would have widened the Canal Regio years ago!

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Wilmar has secured a USD 1.5 billion syndicated loan facility to refinance its debt and working capital at a time when its sugar and tropical oils businesses are going through a slump. In Uganda, meanwhile, the group has managed to get the final go-ahead to secure more land to grow palm oil for its local subsidiary Bidco Uganda – a project that had been delayed for over 10 years. The government will also be allocating them land to develop a vegetable oil refinery. In Zimbabwe, Wilmar has made an offer to buy 50% of the Cotton Company of Zimbabwe (Cottco) which also has edible oils operations. Cottco hopes that Wilmar would help revive operations as the fall in cotton output has led to a drop in cotton-derived oil production.

US-based farmer-owned Central Valley Ag Cooperative announced it will buy out of its joint venture with Cargill in Progressive Ag Partners so that it can have full control of the grain storage company. Regardless, Cargill’s North America agriculture supply chain president recently said that “Cargill [now] has an even stronger emphasis on commodity trading and being the leading merchants of grain. The core of what we do is trade grain.” He explained that the company was focusing on providing farmers the best services, including an efficient and fast supply chain. An analyst explained that, in the grains industry, this meant being the fastest at loading at grain elevators when other smaller groups face queues. Looking forward, Cargill plans to continue adding value and serving farmers by using advanced technologies such as blockchain to solve issues like labeling and traceability.

Cargill, as well as Nestle Purina, will be working with the Nature Conservancy on a three-year project designed to reduce water usage in the beef supply chain. The aim is to use technology such as weather apps and sprinklers to help farmers reduce the water use when irrigating the crops that will be fed to beef. Eventually, the technology should be scalable to all US farmers.

Cargill, Richardson International and ADM are among the grain trading firms focusing on plant-based proteins (such as peas) to reap higher margins amid growing demand from China and health-conscious consumers in the US. Cargill has put money in a joint venture with PURIS which owns a Wisconsin plant that makes peas powder. It is also working on developing pea varieties with more protein as it is an ideal food that is plant-based and gluten-free.

Similarly, ADM is setting up a pea plant in North Dakota and getting farmers on board to grow yellow pea. The group said it was still working on solving issues with flavours and functionality, however, so that the protein could be used more in food processing. Ingredients company Roquette also announced last week it was starting a new production unit in France for speciality pea protein.

Unilever New Zealand has said that sustainable living products accounted for 70% of company’s revenue growth in 2017, and grew 46% faster than other product categories due to increasing consumer awareness. In India, the company just completed its second round of investment in the grocery delivery service Milkbasket. The startup has developed an “early morning, contactless, micro-delivery model akin to the prevalent newspaper and milk supply chain models.”

Brazil fined five grain trading groups, including Cargill and Bunge, for buying soybean produced in areas linked to deforestation. Farmers were also fined for growing soybeans in these areas. However, Bunge said it had checked databases which had indicated that these areas were in line with their best practices. Reports suggest that the amount of forest land being cleared illegally to grow soybean is increasing rapidly in the Matopiba region.

The European Court of Justice maintained its ban on neonicotinoid after finding that the Commission’s 2013 conclusion that these insecticides harm bees was valid. The ruling will give a leg-up to last month’s decision to limit the use of neonicotinoids to greenhouses, but Syngenta and Bayer said they would weigh future action. Similarly, Dutch sugar beet growers as well as their Belgian counterparts have urged their agriculture ministers to seek exemption from the ban. The Belgium agriculture minister argued that investors will be tempted to go to countries where there are fewer environmental restrictions.

Sales of frozen food witnessed growth for the first time in five years in 2017 driven by demand from millennials.  An analyst with Euromonitor explained growing preference for vegan foods and millennials having less time for cooking a full meal with meat have also spurred demand for frozen food. Another analyst pointed out that the record-high number of single people in the Americas was also contributing to the consumption of frozen food. The plus point is that there tends to be much less wastage than with fresh food.

Finally, illegal gold mining is displacing cocoa plantations in Ghana. Given that the country produces 20% of the world’s cocoa, this is expected to have a significant impact on the price of chocolate. See BBC’s investigation here.

This summary was produced by ECRUU

Truth in nutrition

An article in New Food Economy this week warns that almost 40% of peer-reviewed dietary research is wrong, and that “we stop treating new nutrition studies like they contain the truth”. The online magazine argues that “Food research has some big problems: questionable data, untrustworthy results, and pervasive bias”.

In my book The Sugar Casino, I dedicated a chapter to nutrition and told the story of how two enterprising German journalists carried out a “scientific” study that “proved” that eating chocolate will help you to lose weight. They managed to get the study published in a scientific journal and sent out press releases to all the media. Within a week it was on the front page of all the newspapers. None of those newspapers verified the story or checked on how vigorous and exhaustive the study was; they based their stories entirely on the press release.

I wrote at the time,

 Nutrition is an inexact science. It is not possible to isolate the different elements or to establish the causality of any correlation. One test group may lose weight when they eat bananas, but that does not mean that they lose weight because they eat bananas. They could, because they were taking part in the study, have focused more than usual on their health and taken more exercise. Another point is that in the German study the test group that ate chocolate did lose more weight, but the sample size (4 people) was too small to be significant.”

As the New Food Economy wrote in their article, “it is not surprising if you are confused whether coffee causes cancer, or whether butter’s good for you or bad”.

Or whether sugar is a poison that should be regulated like nicotine, or just a calorie that can be part of a healthy diet. (A drunk at a cocktail party recently told me “sugar is toxic”. Sugar isn’t toxic, but alcohol is.)

Aeschylus, the founder of Greek tragedy, wrote “In war, truth is the first casualty.” Perhaps if he were alive today he would replace “war” with “nutrition”.

Julian Baggini touches on nutritional studies, and in particular on the sugar versus fat debate, in his book, A Short History of Truth: Consolations for a Post-Truth World.

He writes,

Hence in the early twenty-first century we find ourselves in a position where we know some truths are hidden by powerful groups to protect their own interests, we are not usually competent enough judges to know which claims about esoteric truths are correct, and we don’t have much confidence in experts to make those judgments for us.

When I read his book last year I found it flawed as I felt the author confused “truth” and “belief”. However I am now not so sure: what may be true for one individual may not be true for another. God may exist for some people, but not for others. Some people believe that the earth is flat or that NASA faked the moon landings.

And on a more mundane level, I may find that when I eat chocolate I lose weight—an individual truth—even though I screen out the fact that I at the same time I start to walk to and from work rather than take the bus. And I may not be able to be convinced otherwise. As Mr Baggini writes,

Reason works best in a blend, which includes not just logic but experience, evidence, judgment, subtlety of thought, and sensibility to ambiguity.

He adds,

“Despite the fact that intelligent people evidently disagree, we are inclined to think that what we believe really is rational and that those who disagree are being blinded by prejudices, ignorance or plain stupidity.”

Perhaps, rather sadly, he is right when he writes,

The relativist argues that there are no bare facts only interpretations of facts, mediated through culture. Nothing is true, period; it is only true for certain people, in certain contexts, or in certain senses. Truth has become personalized, with the individual sovereign over their own interpretation of reality.

So what should we do; who should we believe? In The Sugar Casino I wrote,

There is an old joke about a man who went to see his doctor and asked him what he should do to live to one hundred years old. The doctor replied that he should give up sex, sugar and alcohol and only eat fibrous vegetables mixed with unsweetened porridge.

“If I do that,” asked the man, “will I live to be one hundred?”

“No”, replied the doctor, “but it will seem like it”.

Oscar Wilde once famously said, Everything in moderation, including moderation.” My grandmother used to say, “A little bit of what you fancy does you good” – and that is my first rule of healthy eating. So eat healthily, enjoy your food and don’t beat yourself up over that occasional slice of cheesecake.

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Cargill is worried that the US strategy to tackle the tariff issue with China will worsen trade tensions between the two countries. The US is considering imposing tariffs worth USD 50 million on Chinese goods in response to Beijing’s threat to impose duties on US soybeans and other commodities. As a result, China’s COFCO plans to buy more soybean from Brazil. A source said the company had expanded its teams that deal with farmers in Brazil. Olam and Wilmar, too, are looking to import from South American nations like Brazil and Argentina to avoid paying high taxes.

ADM and Bunge, on the other hand, expect they will benefit from the trade dispute, combined with the drought in Argentina. The CEOs of both companies said the uncertainty provided volatility and opportunities for arbitrage across origins which would help improve margins. Looking forward, however, ADM’s CFO is confident that China and the US will sort out their differences.

Another trade deal which is not going well is NAFTA. The negotiators from Canada, Mexico and the US are likely to miss the May 17 notice of intent deadline fixed by the House speaker so that the Congress could vote on it in December. The Mexican Economy Minister said the trade treaty was unlikely to be rewritten in 2018.

Olam reported its net profit rose by 10% on year to USD 118 million in Jan-Mar (Q1) due to lower taxation and finance cost. Sales volume soared by 56% boosted by grain trade.

Louis Dreyfus announced it has completed the sale of its metal segment – one of its most profitable – to China-based fund NCCL Natural Resources Investment. Louis Dreyfus had in December announced the sale of its metal segment as it looks to focus on its main agriculture trading business.

Bunge, meanwhile, announced on May 15 that it has filed for an IPO of its Brazilian sugar and ethanol arm Bunge Acucar & Bionergia with the Brazilian security commission. Bunge plans to keep a controlling stake in the unit after the public offer.

Alvean, the joint-venture between Copersucar and Cargill, has renewed its long-term supply contract with Dubai-based sugar refinery Al Khaleej. Al Khaleej already bought 20 million mt of raw sugar from them (and Copersucar prior to the creation of the JV) over the past 20 years.

However, a Saudi Arabia-based investor thinks there is potential for Dubai to grow more of its own food. The group has set up a vertical farm to grow vegetables and crops. The emirate currently imports around 90% of its food requirement.

Nestle will look to reduce the level of sugar by another 5% in its packaged food products amid growing preference for healthier foods across the world. The CEO said they have already reduced sugar content by 34% since 2000 and spent USD 1.7 billion in research and development in 2017. The group launched “Nestle for Healthier Kids” program which aims to make the life of 50 million children healthier by 2030. Nestle will add additional fruits, vegetables, fibre-rich grains and micronutrients to the foods and beverages for children. The company will also continue to cut salt as well as saturated fats. Nestle Bulgaria, meanwhile, announced it would reduce electricity consumption of its mills by another 2% as well as reduce the use of water.

At a time when consumers want to know more about their food, Cargill has launched a new interactive beef guide that explains beef production in the US and Canada. It has an online story map called ‘Raising Beef to Higher Standards’ with gives details about ranchers, stockers, feedlot operators and packing plant and other information that might be useful to cattle rearers. Users can virtually explore cattle ranches and feeder operations using aerial maps while also locating feeder lots and packing plants.

Finally, Scandinavia is witnessing a bout of cross border trade as consumers try to evade taxes. After Norway recently hiked its sugar tax by 83%, neighbouring Sweden’s border areas saw a surge in the sale of sugar containing products. A Sweden-based supermarket manager said sales of products affected by the sugar tax had shot up by 10-20% as a result, also aided by the weak Swedish currency.

This news summary has been produced by ECRUU

Merchants of Grain

I am enjoying (re) reading Merchants of Grain, written by Dan Morgan and published in 1979. Many of the comments and observations in the book are still relevant today. Perhaps the most important one is this:

“..the (trading) companies managed to stay in the shadows most of the time. Perhaps it was the ancient nightmare of the middleman-merchant that made them so aloof and secretive—the old fear that in moments of scarcity or famine, the people would blame them for all misfortunes, march upon their granaries, drag them into the town square and confiscate their stocks.”

Government intervention has always been a threat. Socrates once wrote, “No man qualifies as a statesman who is entirely ignorant of the problems of wheat”, while Lenin is credited with saying “Grain is the currencies of currencies”.

Describing the beginning of the US wheat trade in the 1850s, Dan Morgan writes:

“…margins of profit had to be extracted “upstream”—along the railway lines and at the storage terminals in the interior. In the struggle among farmers, merchants, millers, and exporters for their share of the wheat price that was determined in world markets, the advantage always went to those who controlled the storage and transportation of grain.”

But even, or perhaps especially, back then, technology was changing the way food was produced and distributed. Dan Morgan writes, “In 1837, it took 148 man-hours to plant, cultivate, and harvest an acre of wheat; in 1890 it was down to only 37 hours”. As for distribution, “In 1890, the four-masted Shenandoah, driven by a spread of two acres of canvas, left san Francisco with 5200 tons of wheat, the largest grain cargo on record up to that time.” One hundred years later it is now commonplace to ship cargoes of ten times that amount.

Profit margins have also changed in the past one hundred years. Dan Morgan writes, “Between 1883 and 1889, two large terminals in Minneapolis (Empire Grain and Minnesota and Northern Grain) averaged annual returns on capital investment of 40 percent and 30 percent respectively.” And in the 1920s a Federal Trade Commission study showed that US wheat exporters were making returns of more than 20 per cent on their funds deployed.

However, the good times were not to last forever. In the late 1940s a grain surplus “made for dull markets and extremely thin margins, and the zip went out of the business. It was a time when traders had to fight for a quarter of a cent a bushel, and this situation indelibly stamped and indeed altered the essential character of the companies…The grain trade was becoming not much more than a service business, which eked out a living on costs plus commissions”.

And as a reminder to those who forget the cyclical nature of our business, margins picked up with Russian imports in the 1960s and hit a zenith in the “Great Grain Robbery” of 1972 when millions of tons of grains were exported to Russia, restoring the fortunes of some traders and making the fortunes of others.

Dan Morgan describes the events of 1972 as “one of those economic events that, like the OPEC oil embargo the following year or the repeal of the Corn Laws more than a century earlier, can be truly to be said to have changed the world”. (He couldn’t get everything right!)

But most of his observations are still valid today. On the subject of farm surpluses, Dan Morgan writes, “Farm surpluses tended to occur in rich, industrial nations where had powerful, well-organised lobbies, rather than in developing countries where farmers were usually weak and underrepresented.”

And on the strength of character of the Russians. “If anything characterized the Soviet Union since the Revolution, it was its economic isolation and its determination to survive on its own. It was a Yugoslav Communist politician…who had told American officials in Washington in the late 1940s that his countrymen would rather eat grass than accept help from the West with strings attached.” (President Putin said the same thing last year.)

In 1912 Leopold Louis-Dreyfus wrote, “Our business fills a great human and economic need”. It did then, and it does now.

But I would like to leave the final word to Dan Morgan who sums it all up with, “Study grain long enough and the world shrinks”.

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

The World Bank’s International Finance Corporation offered Olam International a USD 120 million unsecured corporate loan, which will go to supporting Olam’s supply chain and improve its market access. The IFC hopes the loan will help some of the 40,000 smallholder farmers who supply Olam.

Nestle reported a 3% organic growth in the first three months of 2018 partly thanks to a good performance in Asia. The group announced a USD 7 billion deal to distribute Starbucks coffee and tea in stores around the world. Sales of premium coffee are reportedly faring much better than traditional roasted coffee with Nespresso grabbing only 1% of the single-serve coffee market in the US. Petcare was among Nestle’s fastest growing segments in the US, particularly natural products. AMD is also expanding its pet business and recently inaugurated a USD 35 million animal nutrition premix factory in Illinois.

Keystone Foods LLC, who supplies chicken nuggets to McDonald’s, is for sale as its Brazilian parent company Marfrig Global Foods is looking to reduce its debt and finance the purchase of a beef packaging firm in the US. Cargill and Tyson Foods Inc are among the interested firms, according to sources who suggested that a USD 3 billion deal could be signed within the next few weeks.

Farmers in the US are worried about China’s unwillingness to discuss the trade deficit. Some Chinese officials reportedly think the economy is strong enough to take the US head-on in a trade-war. On the other hand, an agribusiness expert argued the face-off have created trading opportunities for grain exporters who could benefit from the added volatility.

China is hoping to use new gene editing technologies, like Crispr, to take the lead in gene editing and develop better crops. Syngenta, the Swiss firm recently purchased by ChemChina, is building a research center in Beijing. The CEO said the government was very supportive.

The country spent about twice as much on agricultural research than the US in 2013. Experts think tools like Crispr could disrupt the industry, previously dominated by US firms like Monsanto and DowDuPont because they do not rely on adding foreign DNA, which means regulation could be lighter.

The USDA is still working on the guidelines that will clarify how food firms have to disclose the presence of genetically modified food in their products. The agency published a draft proposal, ahead of the July 29 deadline, although some details are missing, such as whether genome editing will fall under the “GMO” classification. The USDA did suggest that the term “bioengineered” could be used instead of “GMO”.

Still on the topic of GMOs, a US columnist claims that if you are anti-GMO, you’re anti-science, too. He notes that the scientific consensus clearly suggests that directly modifying genes instead of doing it through slow selective breeding has no consequence for our health. Going further, he draws a comparison with climate-change deniers and anti-vaxxers to argue that denying the truth about GMO could have a real human cost. A new book by an early anti-GMO activist, called “Seeds of Science: Why We Got It So Wrong on GMOs” is due in June.

A recent study argued that efforts to reduce the carbon emitted during the production of agricultural goods needed to be complemented by efforts to reduce emission linked to food consumption in large cities. It suggested implementing better solutions to manage distribution, localised production and waste management. Another study by the Changing Markets Foundation argued that the sustainability certification schemes for palm oil and fish did little in terms of protecting the environment and ensuring sustainable agricultural practices. It claimed that the certifications had to lower their standards in order to capture most producers.

Last Friday, the WHO published its recommendation for trans fats and saturated fat consumptions, 15 years after its previous recommendation was published. The agency says the fats should represent less than 10% of total caloric intake to lower the risk of cardiovascular diseases.

Human Reproduction published a study suggesting that women who consumed fast food regularly would take longer to conceive. However, experts noted that like most food studies, researchers had to rely on the subjects remembering what they ate during the month before their pregnancy, which limited results.

Remember last year’s French butter crisis? Well, prices are still going up as supply problems have not been addressed, according to bakers, who are worried about their dwindling profit margins.

This report prepared by ECRUU

Of dinosaurs and conferences

In a Linkedin post this week Hartwig Fuchs, the ex-CEO of Nordzucker (one of the world’s biggest sugar producers), warned that time is running out for the world’s big agricultural trading companies, or as he called them, “the dinosaurs of the international ag trade”. He wrote, “Unless they redefine their business, and focus on true function that benefits their customers, they might have to go”.

He argued that producers no longer need trade houses to intermediate between them and their final buyers, to book fobbing capacity and freight, or to make the destination sales. He wrote,

“So, looking at those companies today, question is: who really needs them? Where do they generate genuine added value for their customers – and for themselves? Who really likes them and wants them around? What´s their purpose?”

Although none of these arguments are new, it is worrying to see them expressed by so significant a personality in the commodity trade. (Mr Fuchs was also at one time Chairman of Toepfer.)

We have already written extensively on the issues that the trading houses are facing, and discussed various alternative business models. As a reminder, take a look at these two interviews: one with Abercore, a trader that has become an advisor, and another with Solaris, a trader that has found a successful niche in the Black Sea grain trade.

It is interesting that Mr Fuchs refers to the trade houses as “dinosaurs”.

“Evolution or Extinction” was to be the theme of the Commodity Conversations ® event that we had been organising at the Natural History Museum in June. Unfortunately we had to cancel the event due to a lack of interest from both sponsors and attendees. This lack of interest was perhaps a sign that the sector is really in difficulty.

Or perhaps it was that the evening cocktail party was due to be held in the museum’s Earth Hall under the watchful eyes of the most intact fossil skeleton ever found. At three metres tall and almost six metres long, the Stegosaurus was perhaps too big a presence for the cocktail party attendees!

I have recently begun to (re) read Merchants of Grain, written by Dan Morgan and published in 1979, almost forty years ago. The book describes the five trading companies that dominated the world’s grain trade: André, Bunge, Cargill, Continental Grain, and Louis Dreyfus.

Mr Morgan wrote that the trade houses

“had made themselves indispensible because of their control of the distribution systems, the processing plants, the technology, the capital and the communications with buyers and sellers…The companies run their own intelligence services all over the planet—private news agencies that never print a word.”

He added,

“The grain merchant houses are private, centralized oligopolies that do not publish financial statements. There are no public stockholders, which greatly limits the obligation to disclose information. Ownership of the companies is vested in the hands of seven of the world’s richest and most uncommunicative families, and the same families also have operating control of the companies.”

However, that was already beginning to change by the time the book hit the shelves. Cargill had already begun to publish a monthly newsletter, starting an “opening-up” that continued for the next forty years—and still continues today. The big trading companies, even the privately held ones, have long realized that they have a responsibility to account to the public, to disclose and explain what they do, and how they do it.

Two of the five companies cited in Merchants of Grain no longer exist, and a third is a candidate for takeover. However, Even so, I am not sure that the agricultural trading sector has been subject to more change than other sectors.

A recent study showed that the lifespan of large, successful companies has never been shorter. In 1965, the average tenure of companies on the S&P 500 was 33 years. By 1990, it was 20 years. It’s forecast to shrink to 14 years by 2026. If this trend continues, about 50 percent of the S&P 500 will be replaced over the next 10 years.

Commodity trading companies have significantly changed their business models in the past forty years and this evolution will continue. Those that do not evolve will become extinct, but this process is not restricted to agricultural commodity trading.

Finally, I do not agree with Mr Fuchs’ argument that agricultural trading companies add no value. When prices and price volatility are low it is relatively easy for buyers and sellers to connect directly. Wait until prices turn or there is a major harvest failure somewhere. It will be then that the skills and value of the trading houses (big and small) will once again be appreciated.

But it is still a shame that we had to cancel the conference planned for June. It would have been an interesting discussion.