Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Bunge saw a loss of USD 29 million in the Jan-Mar (Q1) quarter, down from earnings of USD 39 million in the same period last year. However, the company explained that a big part of the losses was due to an increase in forward soybean crushing margins, which means losses should be offset later in the year once the contracts are executed. As a result, it increased the forecast for operating profits this year to between USD 800,000 million and USD 1 billion, compared to USD 550,000-700,000 previously forecast.

On the other hand, losses in the sugar segment increased to USD 24 million mt in Q1, up 40% on year as low sugar prices could not offset the higher ethanol values. Bunge reduced its full-year forecast for operating profits from USD 50-70 million to USD 40-60 million for the sugar division as a result. The company said that it is planning to file for an IPO of its Brazilian sugar mills in May, adding that mills have assured debt financing and can now operate independently. The company had spent over USD 1 billion in its acquisition of the sugar mill operator Moema in 2010.

ADM announced a 16% jump in its profit for Q1 due to better margins and higher soybeans processing volumes in North and South America. However, it is anticipating a USD 30 million negative impact in its Q2 results due to China’s anti-dumping tariffs on sorghum. In combination with DuPont, the group opened a pilot facility in Illinois, US, to make bio-based plastic from corn-based fructose which aims to cut plastic in soda bottles by 25%.

US-based POET dislodged ADM as the world’s top ethanol producer. Previously, both companies had an annual capacity of 1.8 billion gal, which POET expanded to 1.9 billion gal, with a goal of 2 billion gal by 2019, while ADM reduced it to 1.6 billion gal.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has fined Glencore Agriculture and Glencore Ltd USD 2 million for breaking trading rules between January 2013 and November 2015. These included breaching speculative position caps and illegal wash deals.

Mondelez International’s profit and sales in Q1 exceeded market expectation due to a strong showing in Europe and emerging markets.

EU members have voted in favour of a near-total ban on the use of neonicotinoids following studies that found its use posed a threat to bees and other pollinators. The sugar beet industry warned this would have a significant impact on yields as there are no alternatives, adding that it threatened the future of the industry.

The head of Unilever said the efforts to source palm oil sustainably were not working well enough, as he noted that deforestation accelerated significantly in 2016. He called on the G7 and G20 to include the topic of food security and sustainability in their agendas. Meanwhile, Greenpeace International has accused Indonesia’s Megakarya Jaya Raya, which supplies palm oil to Nestle, Mars, Pepsi and Unilever, of destroying over 4,000ha of rainforests in the Papua region between May 2015 and April 2017.

UK-based supermarket chain Iceland decided to stop buying products containing palm oil from the end of 2018, saying its production encourages deforestation. The palm oil industry warned, however, that palm cultivation needs less land than other oils.

Leading retailers and food firms such as Walmart, Nestle and Kellogg last week joined a new drive that aims at creating more environmentally and socially responsible global supply chains and ensuring that bonded labour is not used. The Consumer Goods Forum, consisting of around 400 food retailers and manufacturers across 70 countries, is setting up a benchmark auditing and certification system to avoid duplication in audit and promote sustainable sourcing.

Similarly, food industry stakeholders and supermarkets in the UK including Unilever, Nestle and Pepsi will do away with non-essential single-use plastics by 2025 and make sure that the rest of the packaging is recyclable, degradable and reusable as a part of the government’s Plastics Pact. They will also ensure recycling of a minimum of 70% of plastic packaging compared to around 33% now, and use  plastic packaging with an average of 30% recycled content.

In the US, the Illinois House of Representatives passed legislation that seeks to permit farm zones in cities deficient in fresh food items. The bill, which will now go to the Senate, also seeks to create a fund from the sales tax proceeds of such farm produce to finance social programmes.

More and more start-ups are looking at plants to replace animal products, such as eggs, milk, cheese and meat, to lower the carbon impact of agricultural productions. Taste, however, is particularly hard to perfectly reproduce and the race is now moving to finding a cheap way to make lab meat. Following the success of Maastricht University who made the first cultured meat in 2013, Cargill is backing Memphis Meats’ effort to make beef, chicken and duck in labs. Nonetheless, making food in laboratories goes against the move to eat more natural and local ingredients, and a former consultant for Monsanto warned that the burgeoning industry needs to manage its image carefully.

This summary produced by ECRUU

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Louis Dreyfus announced it has reorganised its top management team to include eight new members, including the head of finance, a Group COO and a strategy chief. It said the new team will focus on its Brazilian sugar company Biosev, which underwent a USD 1.45 billion recapitalisation in 2017, and on China’s soybeans market, which is exhibiting a higher feed demand. It also clustered its grains and oilseeds segments with its finance and freight divisions.

Cargill has leased its port-based sunflower processing unit in Quequen, on Argentina’s Atlantic Coast, to Renova, the joint venture between Glencore and Vicentin, for a year. Cargill has been struggling with workers protests which have affected soybean crushing and exports from Argentina. The situation has created concern that the company may not be able to export as much soybean as a result.

In the US, meanwhile, Cargill has donated USD 150,000 to set up a poultry research centre at the University of Arkansas. The facility will focus on developing alternatives to antibiotics, including probiotics, prebiotics and other nutraceutical-type products. Similarly, ADM is tying up with a Chinese group to open a lab in California that will focus on developing feed and enzymes to improve animal health and nutrition. ADM explained that adding enzymes to swine and poultry diets, for instance, helped their digestion, improved their wellbeing and reduced their carbon footprint.

Canada’s Walmart has officially committed to being waste free by 2025 by becoming more efficient, discounting food about to go off as well as by donating through local food banks. The group will also give USD 15 million to help find solutions to reduce wastage along the supply chain.

UK-based company AB Sugar has pledged to use all recyclable and biodegradable plastic packaging and reduce its carbon footprint by 30% by 2030, according to its first sustainability report. The company will also cut down water usage by 30% in association with its 25,000 producers.

In China, Nestle will sell 67 more items on Alibaba’s Tmall in an effort to grab a larger share of online sales. A company official forecast the Chinese online market will become bigger than Europe and the US combined in 2018. Meanwhile, Nestle is set to lose its KitKat four fingers patent case to Mondelez which would open the gates for other European candy producers to make similarly shaped items. Sources say the European Court is likely to agree with the attorney general’s findings that the shape is not distinctive enough to give Nestle its sole ownership.

US citizens throw away a total of 150,000mt of food per day. The USDA study found that the Americans with healthier diets consuming fruits and vegetables wasted the most followed by dairy and meat consumers. Discarded food translates into an annual waste of 30 million acres of land, 354,000mt of pesticide and 4.2 trillion gal of irrigated water, besides choking landfills and increasing methane release.

A campaign by the Eating Better coalition, consisting of 50 civil society groups, has drafted eight principles to guide consumers on making healthier choices on meat and dairy products and lessen the damage they inflict on the environment. The group recommends buying meat in smaller quantities to reduce waste and improve health. It advises lowering consumption of intensively reared animals like chickens and pigs in which there is antibiotic overuse. The coalition also demanded better labelling of foods.

In an era when 10 companies own 75% of global seeds trade and 94% of the vegetable seed varieties have been lost, Open Source Seeds (OSS) is trying to promote the common ownership of seeds. So far, however, it is struggling to win over plant breeders and has licensed only 3 varieties each of tomato and wheat. The group argues that having diverse crop varieties will come in handy at a time when climate change is a challenge. It added that having an open-source market will ensure continued development and breeding of multiple varieties of each seed.

On a more artistic note, click here to see the best contendants for the Food Photographer of the Year.

This report was prepared by ECRUU

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Cargill is planning to invest USD 118 million in Brazil in 2018 in developing waterways and rail transport as an alternative to trucks, and its Santos Port terminal. Cargill already acquired the remaining stake in the Cevasa sugar and ethanol mill and, with SJC Bioenergia, is banking on the booming corn-to-ethanol business. The head of the Brazilian operations said that regardless of the uncertainties brought by the elections Brazil will continue to be a major global food producer, adding that the challenge lies in bringing these crops to port.

Wilmar and the India-based group Adani via their joint venture Bangladesh Edible Oil Ltd (BEOL) are planning to spend USD 350 million to build an agro-based foods and allied products industrial park in Bangladesh. BEOL said the popularity of its edible oil was encouraging the investment.

Olam has announced the launch of AtSource, a technological solution for a sustainable agricultural supply chain which allows customers to see the social and environmental footprint of a commodity. The dashboard will start by showing the supply chain for West African cocoa and cashew, as well as Brazilian and Vietnamese coffee, among others. It’s target is for all of its products to be on AtSource by 2025.

Similarly, Hershey has launched Cocoa For Good, a USD 500 million initiative to help cocoa farmers improve their livelihoods as well as promote sustainable farming practices as the company aims for all of its cocoa to come from certified sustainable sources by 2020. The company is working with Sourcemap to make its supply chain more transparent.

The exiting head of Sucden’s cocoa trading desk, who has been in the business for 50 years, is arguing that the drive to grow sustainable cocoa is keeping farmers poor. He explained that the system allowed the various companies involved – including NGOs – to cash in on sustainability practices but that West African cocoa farmers are probably poorer today than they were before.

In Brazil, conservation groups have offered USD 5 million in grants to help turn deforested and degraded Amazon land into 1,700sq km of cocoa tree plantations. Cocoa trees are financially more interesting than using the land for cattle ranching, which faces additional rules designed to curb further expansion into the forest. Brazil’s Cocoa Processing Industry expects production to double to 400,000mt/year by 2028, which would increase global production by 5%.

China’s high birth rate and rising middle class allowed Danone to increase its sale of baby formula, dairy products and water brands in the country. In Europe, on the other hand, sales of dairy products during the first three months of the year were 0.3% lower than last year as the firm is trying to adapt to changing tastes and slow demand growth.

Nestle reportedly made some progress over a dispute with AgeCore, which represents six retailers in Europe, which started in September last year over supply terms. AgeCore, whose membership includes Switzerland’s Coop and Germany’s Edeka, has been encouraging its retailers to boycott Nestle products. And in the US, Nestle Waters has abandoned a plan to build a bottling plant in Pennsylvania, although it might look for alternative sites. Food & Water Watch welcomed the news and highlighted the strong opposition the project had faced.

In the UK, the dairy and meat industries – with the support of NGOs such as the animal rights group RSPCA – are trying to change the name of “veal” to “rosé beef” in an attempt to convince more people to eat veal; this could give an outlet for male calves that are otherwise killed at birth. The Guardian found that as many as 95,000 calves are killed at birth as it is cheaper to kill them than to keep them alive.

In the US, cell-cultured meat – so-called clean meat – is causing regulatory confusion. The US beef industry is divided between those who say it should count as meat as it comes from a stem cell and those who argue that it is technically a food additive. Whether it is the former or the latter could impact the definition of “meat” as we know it. It is also unclear which government body should take the call. Some say it falls under the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), others argue it’s in the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) department and others still say that only Congress can take the call.

A recent study looking at – and grading – how supermarkets in the US work to reduce food waste found that none of the major groups managed to score an A. The company that fared best was Walmart thanks to policies like clearer labeling which distinguish between “Best if Used By” and “Use By” dates, among others. The study found that part of the problem was that the supermarkets are not disclosing data, making it hard to assess how much is actually being wasted, and therefore making it harder to find solutions.

The European Commission has allowed member states to declare dual standard food as illegal, after Central and Eastern European countries complained that multinational firms were selling lower quality food in their countries despite identical packaging. For example, eastern countries complained that animal fat was often substituted with vegetable fat and sugar was substituted with artificial sweeteners or corn syrup. In response, food producers had argued that these differences were designed to suit local tastes.

Finally this week, a new book, called The Food Explorer, tells the unusual tale of an American botanist and explorer, who at the age of 22 founded the USDA’s Section of Foreign Seed and Plant Introduction. Over 37 years of travel, David Fairchild travelled to more than 50 countries to bring back new or better fruits and vegetables, such as mangos, quinoa, dates, cotton or soybeans. He even befriended Bavarian beer makers to bring back some of their high quality hops. Kazakhstan gave him apples, New Guinea gave him bananas and China oranges and lemons: The food we eat is indeed the product of a globalised world.

This report was produced by ECRUU

New York conversations

The family at the next table were stocking up enough food from the hotel breakfast buffet to last them for weeks. Admittedly it was a big family, three generations of them, but there wasn’t a square inch of space on their table that wasn’t covered in food. Every time a plate was emptied, the grandmother went back to the buffet to get a refill. None of the family members was overweight, and there was no way that they were going to eat all of the food they had piled onto their table. I guessed that at least half would be thrown away, if not more.

As I finished my coffee a businessman sat down at the table on the other side of me and started to tuck into a plate piled high with fruit: melons, pineapples, huge red strawberries and grapes. I estimated that he had more than a kilo of fruit on his plate. He saw me looking at him and smiled. “I am on a diet,” he explained. “I only have fruit for breakfast now.” I thought about telling him that fruit were carbohydrates and heavy in calories but he had already got up to fetch a pint glass of apple juice.

The grandmother walked past my table again with what could only be described as a bucket of scrambled eggs. She piled some of them onto her grandchildren’s plates, but they were more interested in the chocolate brownies that she had amassed earlier. The grandmother wasn’t eating anything; she was just making sure that her grandchildren were well looked after. I realised that she was expressing her love through food—and I thought once again how complex our relationship with food really is. Food is life and love, but it is also guilt and self-depravation.

The previous day I had dropped in to meet the editorial team at New Food Economy. The online magazine had recently run a series of articles about farmer suicides in the US. Farmers borrowed heavily the last time crop prices were high, and they had invested that money in new equipment and more land. With crop prices down again, farmers are now unable to meet their interest payments; as a result, farming now has the highest suicide rate of any profession in the US.

We discussed how low food prices mean that producers can’t cover their costs while at the same time they encourage consumers to overeat and throw away a large percentage of what they buy. While high food prices attract most attention from the media, the social and environmental costs of low food prices are always underestimated.

The next day I was talking with a Bloomberg journalist about how low food prices were impacting farmers, but she wasn’t impressed. “Maybe food prices are low in the US”, she told me, “but what about the currency effect? Russian wheat producers are doing just fine, as too are Brazilian soybean farmers. ”

She made another good point about low prices. “Perhaps,” she suggested, “the improvements in seed technology and farming practices—drones and the like—have reduced production costs while at the same time made crops more resistant to poor weather, pests and disease.

“Is it possible,” she asked, “that bad weather and disease has less impact on production now than in the past? It is possible that technology has taken some of the volatility out of the agricultural markets? If it has, then crop prices could stay lower for longer than in the past—especially if the US dollar stays high.”

Technology and innovation were the main subjects of conversation when I met a friend for lunch, but this time we focused on AI—artificial intelligence—and the way that the algorithmic funds (according to him) now dominate the futures markets.

“They are so secretive,” he told me, “none of my contacts know how they work. We all try to guess how they are programmed, and how they might react to, or to create, market moves, but it is impossible. Perhaps they change their trading strategies too quickly, or perhaps they have many variants of a particular trading strategy.”

“What about market fundamentals,” I asked him, “don’t they impact the markets?”

“Yes they do,” he replied. “Supply and demand will always drive medium and long term trends. But there currently aren’t any trends in these range-bound and over-supplied markets. For the moment I am just trying to survive. I call it “death by a thousand cuts”—all these tiny short-term moves just pick away at my equity. Algorithmic funds love these markets. And to be honest, they will probably also love trending markets. Perhaps computers are just better at trading than humans.”

My final business conversation of the trip was with another old friend in the business. I told him about the pessimism that I had encountered and he laughed. “It’s just that phase in the cycle,” he reassured me. “Cycles turn and when this one does farmers and traders will be able to make money again. It will then be the consumers’ turn to complain. The last time food prices increased, everyone blamed traders and speculators; no one blamed the poor weather or the preceding period of low prices that had driven farmers off their fields.

“Give it two years,” he laughed. “Traders and producers will once again be making money—and everyone will hate us. It’s been like that since the beginning of time, so you might as well get used to it!”

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Cargill reported a 24% decline in net profit to USD 495 million for the Dec-Feb (Q3) quarter, mostly due to a USD 161 million adjustment cost to comply with the new US tax law. The firm said profit would have been up 1% without the tax change, while sales increased by 2% on year to USD 28 billion. The biggest growth contributor was its animal nutrition and protein segment, followed by the food ingredients unit, although it was impacted by low ethanol prices in North America and high manufacturing costs in its European sweetener and starch business.

Cargill is investing USD 20 million to double egg processing capacity at its Minnesota plant. The company explained that Americans seemed to increasingly prefer eating out for breakfast, instead of lunch or dinner as it used to be the case. The company already spent USD 900 million in its North American protein business in the last two years to meet the growing demand for animal protein which it attributed to a growing middle class.

Cargill said India  was an important growth market for the group and hopes to turn the country into an export base for products like corn. However, the company’s CEO for the Asia-Pacific region said India must first promote free trade and adopt technology such as GM seeds to meet its target of doubling the income of farmers.

Olam reported a post-tax profit of USD 551.65 million in 2017, up from USD 339.10 million in 2016. The COO attributed the increase to improved efficiency as it invested to make its supply chain more digital. The company foresees important changes in people’s eating habits, including a move towards ethical eating which requires increasing traceability. With this goal in mind, it will be implementing a Living Landscapes Policy at its farms and its network of third-party suppliers, which include around 4 million small and big farmers. The policy is designed to attend to ecological and social problems which affect its agricultural supply chain.

Louis Dreyfus announced a USD 50,000 grant to World Coffee Research to work on areas such as low yields, impediments in improving quality and impact of climate change on the commodity. An LDC official said the grant is part of its sustainability efforts to achieve positive and long-term impacts on the coffee value chain.

Meanwhile, Netafim Mercosul, a Brazilian irrigation company that allows farmers to buy their irrigation systems against some of their production, has seen an 116% increase in coffee irrigation projects in 2017. The company also saw revenues grow by 109% as more farmers, struggling to get bank financing, turn to this barter system.

ADM Arkady, ADM’s UK feed distribution arm, has entered into a long-term deal with the Peel Ports Group which will develop its Glasgow port facilities with a view to improving the handling of animal feed shipments. The managing director said the deal was aimed at combining regional feed shipments and improving supplies to the north of England and Scotland markets.

The UK’s grain trading market is likely to see consolidation soon as small and regional grain traders struggle to stay profitable amid falling margins. Several groups have already exited grain trading in the past year. A Dalmark group director argued that the entry cost was too low while high volatility and reduced crop volumes have pushed up expenses and lowered margins.

Brazil-based Marfrig Global Foods will acquire 51% stake in Kansas-based National Beef Packing Company for USD 969 million to become the world’s second-largest meat producer. The Kansas-based National Beef is the fourth largest beef processor in the US.

The UK launched its sugar tax last week. The government is apparently already considering bringing other products, such as added-sugar flavoured milk drinks under the tax to tackle obesity. Food manufacturers and bakers have voluntarily agreed to lower sugar content in cakes, biscuits and cereals by 20% in the next four years. On the other hand, Coca-Cola launched a marketing campaign for its original Coke highlighting the fact that the recipe hasn’t changed – which means the price has gone up due to the tax.  

Coca-Cola India will launch its first sugar-free drink in India to meet changing consumer tastes. An official explained that people in cities were increasingly concerned about their health, adding that the sugar-free beverage segment was growing fast. In the same vein, Nestle will spend USD 27 million on modernising its prepared foods and noodle-based soups plant in Ukraine. The modernisation plan, which would be completed by 2021, aims at reformulating recipes to reduce fat content in line with WHO’s dietary recommendations.

Nestle also announced a target to only have recyclable or reusable packaging by 2025. Some NGOs complained, however, that the announcement amounted to “greenwashing” given the lack of clear quantitative targets. The company CEO admitted that “plastic waste is one of the biggest sustainability issues the world is facing today” but that the company’s ability to deal with that problem also depended on each country’s recycling infrastructure.

Similarly, Unilever has joined hands with the world’s top PET resin maker Indorama Ventures and a Dutch start-up Ioniqa to develop a technology that transforms PET waste into new food packaging material – a technology that could revolutionise food packaging and reduce waste. The technology has cleared the pilot testing phase and will now be tested at an industrial scale.

Finally, the not-for-profit advisory firm Ceres has said that not enough food companies are committed to end deforestation. It found that less than 50% of the 469 food manufacturers that have deforestation commitments in 2018 have made official plans to improve traceability across their palm oil supply chain, and less than 20% plan to make it completely transparent – the way Nestle and Unilever have done.

This report was produced by ECRUU

Ten Questions for the Agtrade

Agricultural commodity traders are asking themselves key questions about the future of their businesses. Here are ten that we heard recently (with tentative, perhaps controversial, answers).

1/ How can we improve profitability in the supply chain?

At present the only way is to cut costs. This can be done by reducing headcount and by introducing new technologies and processes. Increasing traded volumes and the general scale of operations can also help. However, when everyone fights for increased market share competition gets tougher and margins suffer.

2/ Why is consolidation in the sector happening so slowly?

The main players are looking to increase scale to reduce their costs and diversify their risks. However once you get to a certain size you run into issues with the competition authorities. Consolidation is happening in the middle tiers. COFCO bought both Nidera and Noble Agri, but those two acquisitions show how tough it can be to integrate a business once you have bought it. Most M&A deals destroy rather than create value—and not just in the agtrade.

3/ Where is the value in the agricultural supply chain?

In recent years the value has seeped out of the agricultural supply chain as market power has shifted from producer to trader to consumer. This has resulted in lower food prices at the expense of farm incomes and traders’ margins. If people want to eat, that pendulum will have to swing back, at least partially.

4/ Is a sustainable supply chain a less profitable one?

No. To be sustainable a supply chain has to be profitable. If it isn’t profitable then it isn’t sustainable. Traders will have to be paid for what they do or they will stop doing it.

5/ Does increased traceability mean less tradability?

Maybe. Traders need optionality to be able to respond to price signals (for example changing freight rates) in order to supply their customers at the cheapest price. If one origin can’t be swapped for another then the supply chain becomes less flexible and more costly. However technological progress should soon mean that all commodities are traceable back to where they were produced. Traceability and tradability will then become co-dependent.

 6/ Is efficiency the key to a sustainable supply chain?

Yes, along with improved traceability. Increased efficiency should result in reduced crop loss and and fewer GHG emissions. A more efficient supply chain should also raise farm incomes and help local communities reduce environmental degradation caused by agricultural expansion.

7/ Is there still a role for speculation in agricultural supply?

Speculators absorb price risk. Risk has a cost. By transferring price risk to speculators the other actors in the supply chain (producers, consumers and traders) can lower their costs. This raises farm incomes and lowers food prices. Speculators also ensure that price signals are transmitted quickly, leading to faster supply responses.

8/ How will technology impact the agtrade?

In many ways, but most significantly, blockchain and a wider use of electronic shipping documents should make the whole supply chain more efficient and lower costs.

9/ Does the agricultural commodity trade have a future?

Absolutely. The world’s demand for calories continues to increase and the only way to meet that demand in an efficient and environmentally sustainable way is through trade. Someone will have to move these huge crops around the world—and to be paid to do so. The future for the sector as a whole is bright.

10/ Which companies will win and which will lose?

The winners will be those that embrace change, responding quickly to process innovation and technology. As Charles Darwin wrote, “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change”.

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Louis Dreyfus has finalised the acquisition of Chinese oilseed crushing business Sinarmas Natural Resources Foodstuff Technology and its plant in the port of Tianjin. The CEO said it was part of the strategy to focus on China and its growing domestic demand. 

ADM has been going through several waves of restructuring – the latest announced last month – as it tries to cope with a changing and more competitive environment. Meanwhile ADM’s office in Germany is facing a routine audit which may force the company to pay higher taxes. 

Bunge is having difficulty in selling its sugar trading unit with potential buyers finding the USD 75 million targeted value too high. Nordzucker and Wilmar have reportedly looked at the business. This lack of interest may make it harder for Bunge to sell its sugar milling segment, which could be valued at USD 1-2 billion.

Cargill will switch to a controlled-atmospheric stunning (CAS) system at its chicken processing facility in Ontario instead of electric stunning. The company explained this was part of the efforts to meet growing consumer concern for animal welfare and a more humane way of slaughtering animals, adding that the less stress the chicken experience the better the meat tastes.

Cargill is also helping McDonald’s find a way to feed chicken with insects and seaweed instead of soy, as part of the restaurant’s pledge to support forests. They found that chickens digest the insects better than vegetable protein which also makes them healthier.

The Parma Ham Consortium in Italy has denied allegations of poor animal welfare at several breeding farms after videos were made public by activists. The director of the organisation added that they were working on improving traceability and had put together guidelines with the Research Centre on Animal Production. A UK-based animal welfare organisation pointed out, however, that animal processing companies had the challenge of finding the right balance between taking care of animals but providing cheap meat.

Nestle has won the right to increase the groundwater extraction rate in Michigan from 250 gal per minute to 400 gal for its Ice Mountain Natural Spring Water plant which was recently expanded. The move angered environmentalists but the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality said it had reviewed the case carefully before granting the permit. Environmentalists argued that Nestle was able to get the water for free and only paid a USD 200 annual permit. In Brazil, meanwhile, Nestle decided to sell its water business – which includes the Sao Lourenço and Petropolis brands and three factories – to local company Grupo Edson Queiroz.

The soaring price of vanilla, which we mentioned in last week’s report, is leading to crop theft and deforestation in Madagascar – the world’s main vanilla producer. An investigation by The Guardian found that protected forest land was being cleared to plant vanilla as locals try to take advantage of the sky-high prices. The investigation also found that while vanilla prices have risen after a cyclone destroyed a big part of the crop last year, the price has also been inflated by speculators who are using vanilla sales to launder money made from logging and illegally exporting rosewood to China.

After much deliberation, a court in Los Angeles ruled that coffee sellers in California will have to put a cancer warning label on the coffee. The whole thing started after an organisation sued several coffee companies – including giant Starbuck – accusing them of not warning consumers about the presence of a chemical considered carcinogenic. Although the ruling only applies to California the label may eventually appear on a national level because it would cost too much to tailor packaging to one state only.

A report by NAFTA’s Commission for Environmental Cooperation found that food wastage in Canada is among the highest in the world. The estimated 396kg of food wasted per capita could cost as much as CAD 30 billion and create 21 million mt of greenhouse gas emissions. While a big part is lost before it reaches the consumer, people throw away around 170kg/year. The organisation called on consumers, as well as food industry stakeholders to intervene to reduce the waste.

In the UK, FareShare is asking people to sign a petition that would request the government to set up a GBP 15 million fund to help reduce waste by redistributing it to the hungry. The charity said this would help remove the burden from farmers and producers who currently have to bear the cost of moving the surplus around. An estimated 270,00mt of edible food is in surplus every year, out of which only 17,000mt is redistributed.

Report produced by ECRUU

Innovation and the Agtrade

The agricultural commodity trade is as old as the hills and one of the earliest professions. It has experienced constant change over the centuries and that change has accelerated over recent decades. Technological change and process innovation will continue to accelerate; we as a sector must continue to evolve and embrace these changes.

What have been the major innovations so far, and how will innovation and new technology further disrupt the sector?

Here are five ways in which the sector has already been disrupted:

  1. Social media has transferred market power from producers to traders and now to consumers, giving consumers a mass voice to start or reinforce trends, blacklist and shame some brands or products and promote others.
  2. Communication has become instant and virtually free. In the past trade houses invested huge sums of money in, and prided themselves on, their private in-house communication networks. These have now become redundant.
  3. Information has become widespread and democratic. This has eroded the price differentials that previously existed between surplus and deficit areas. It has also eroded the “information edge” that traders once had regarding future price movements.
  4. Satellites have improved crop forecasting, giving us better information regarding harvests and weather problems. Bigger and cheaper computers have made weather modelling and forecasting less of a luxury and more accessible. (Unfortunately for the trade houses, this information is now also widely available at a low or even zero cost.)
  5. Algorithmic trading systems have become so good they can be better at trading than humans. This is making it harder for traders to make a profit speculating in the futures markets, and more expensive for producers and consumers to hedge their price risks.

However, not all innovation has made things harder for traders. Here are five ways in which it has been positive—and will continue to be positive.

  1. Containerisation has undoubtedly been the biggest disruptor ever in the way that commodities are moved around the world. It has reduced shipping costs (and cargo loss) and improved traceability. There is no reason why this should not continue. Technology should continue to reduce transport and distribution costs in general.
  2. The “sharing economy” should further reduce shipping costs. Instead of trade houses owning fleets of ships or trucks, they will increasingly outsource distribution and transport to others who can better maximise capacity utilisation.
  3. Artificial intelligence will continue to reduce costs. Machine learning and artificial intelligence is already aiding or replacing some more complex roles. This is the flip side of the algorithmic trading point we saw in the earlier list. We have already seen the first successful blockchain transaction (a cargo of Canadian soybeans to China) and we expect momentum in this area to build.
  4. Technology in the form of RFID chips will soon allow traders to track commodities from the moment they leave the farm or producer until they arrive at destination. Pretty soon each bag of, say, coffee, tea and sugar will have one!
  5. Food composition itself will change. It could be simple stuff like Nestle’s new sugar, which is hollow and contains less calories. It could also be major innovations that will completely change the landscape of agriculture – like a switch to lab meat.

By definition, the biggest disruptor to the agricultural commodity trade will be the one that we don’t foresee. Take road transport. Who really predicted how improvements in battery technology would lead to the growth in electric vehicles, the sharing economy to the growth of Uber, and improvements in AI to driverless cars?

The technology companies are already targeting agriculture, whether in the form of vertical farming or retail distribution systems (think of Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods and their cashier-free stores.)

Who knows, maybe the next Elon Musk will start out as a grain trader!

 

Commodity Conversations Weekly Press Summary

Olam has secured a three-year green loan facility of USD 500 million from a consortium of 15 lenders led by ING Bank. Olam will pay a lower interest on the credit line, which is Asia’s first green consortium loan, if it achieves targets of improvement in over 50 environmental, social and governance parameters every year. 

Nestle launched new Milkybar Wowsomes chocolate in the UK and Ireland which has 30% less sugar thanks to a new technology that reduces the sugar content without altering the sweetness level.

Talking of sweetness, in Brazil, a bill in the Senate proposes to allow cane cultivation in Amazon to produce ethanol. Green groups and UNICA, which represents the country’s cane sector, opposed the move, arguing that it would make Brazil’s ability to meet the Paris pact goals harder.  UNICA added that it would hurt the image of the sugar and ethanol industry in the global market.

The price of vanilla has skyrocketed to a high of USD 600/kg, making it more expensive than silver, after a cyclone last year hit Madagascar – which produces 80% of the world’s vanilla. Bakeries and ice cream makers the world over have had to increase their prices  or resort to using substitutes. Only 1% of vanilla extract which is used in food comes from the real plant, however, the rest is made from vanillin molecules found in coal tar, petroleum and wood.

Several NGOs have called on investors, consumers, supermarkets and the meat processing industry to put pressure on soy traders to improve the traceability of their soy supply chain. This follows the release of a new report which shows massive deforestation of the Gran Chaco region in Argentina and Paraguay, deforestation which is blamed on soybean demand. The NGOs conceded that some trade houses had implemented the Brazilian Soy Moratorium to improve sustainability but argued this was limited to the Brazilian Amazon.

Environmental groups in the EU are concerned that the common agriculture policy (CAP) which is up for renewal next year will continue to subsidise large industrial farms and practices that are leading to the decimation of wildlife. Recent studies showed that the population of farmland birds dropped by over half in the past 30 years in Europe, while the number of insects is also dropping because of pesticides.

Leading conservation BirdLife Europe, however, said that the EU was in a “state of denial” regarding the effect of farming on wildlife. There is also talk that EU subsidies for wildlife-friendly farming would be cut after the European Court of Auditors published a report saying they were ineffective.

But there are efforts which show that well managed commercial farming is not necessarily destructive. BirdLife Netherlands has been working with Dutch dairy farmers to develop products that are friendly to the birds, as well as make some changes – such as cutting the fields later in the year – to avoid affecting the wildlife.

The loss of fertile soil as a result of unsustainable farming is putting some 3.2 billion people at risk, the equivalent of 2/5th of the global population, according to a report by IPBES. The study warns that 50-700 million people could be displaced by 2050 due to pollution and climate change as land degradation increases. 

Using blockchain technology in agriculture is expected to help improve traceability within the supply chain. It could help crack down on the amount of fake organic food as well as speed up payments. The head of JPMorgan has said he regretted saying earlier that Bitcoin was a “fraud,” admitting that cryptocurrency was going to change the business. The bank is building its own blockchain solution – Quorum.

Another way of solving degrading land would be to eat more plant-based foods instead of using them to feed animals we then eat. Scientists have called this “opportunity food loss” or the cost of choosing a particular alternative over better options. Looking at the US, they found that growing plant-based food for human’s direct consumption could feed an additional 350 million people.

Over ¾ of ads in sports sponsorships promote unhealthy food in the US, according to a new study. In the UK only 1.2% of food advertising promotes vegetables. Celebrity chef Jamie Oliver is working with ad agencies to start a campaign to change how people perceive vegetables.  This has worked in the past. The Popeye cartoon, which encouraged eating spinach, reportedly pushed sales up by 30% in the 1930s.

This report was produced by ECRUU

The FT Commodity Summit

The mood at this year’s FT Commodities Global Summit was more upbeat than in recent years. The summit was again mostly focused on the extractive industries, oil, gas and metals—all markets that appear to have bottomed. Indeed this year’s theme was “The Start of a New Cycle”. Excess production capacity has now been absorbed and prices are on the up.

The “electrification” of the economy was the main subject of discussion for the energy and metal guys, particularly the anticipated growth in electric vehicles (EVs). Electrification is expected to be marginally bearish for oil prices, but then only sometime in the distant future, and wildly bullish for cobalt and copper prices. Speaker after speaker took the stage to warn that there simply won’t be enough of either to meet the planned expansion in EV production.

The mood turned remarkably flat, however, when it was time for the panel on agriculture. The panellists worried about razor-thin, or even negative, margins on their physical trade flows and sadly listed all the reasons : the democratisation of data; the speed of information; greater transparency in supply chains; the advent of algorithmic funds; heavier regulation; increased traceability and reduced tradability; over-production; and an over-hang of infrastructure.

Panellists explained that agricultural trade houses have been responding to the collapse in their margins by cutting costs, particularly by reducing headcount and implementing new technology to improve efficiency. They have also been trying to increase traded volumes so as to spread their overhead cost burden more thinly. Unfortunately, this fight for market share has resulted in increased competition and even thinner margins, a vicious circle that can only be solved by consolidation.

With margins so thin it doesn’t take much of a problem somewhere along the supply chain to push a transaction, or a company, into a loss. As long as it doesn’t over stretch management, increased volume can diminish the impact any particular problem can have on the company’s finances. So increased scale can reduce risks as well as costs. The panel predicted that we would see more partnerships, such as the recently announced one between Cargill and ADM in Egypt.

However, if the sector is to thrive—or even survive—it has to do more than reduce costs or spread risks. As the President of Cargill’s Agricultural Supply Chain Enterprise so aptly put it, “We all have to reinvent ourselves one way or another to ensure that we create value within the supply chain.”

Sitting in the conference hall listening to the speakers from the energy and metals sectors it became apparent that they at least are still making money from the physical movement of their particular commodities. Yes, they all complained about declining margins; but at least they still have margins to complain about. Agricultural trade houses don’t have that luxury.

Most agricultural commodity traders gave up trying to make money from FOBS to C&F a long time back. Instead they moved up and down stream into elevators, silos, barges, port terminals, and distribution and packing plants. They also went into trade finance and risk management. (At one stage they even tried their hands at running hedge funds.) However, competition is now just as tough at both origin (from farmers) and destination (from local traders).

But wait a minute. World population is growing, as too is our demand for meat. Someone will have to move all that food (and animal feed) from where it is grown to where it is eaten. They will have to store those crops from when they are harvested to when they are consumed. And they will have to process that food into a form that can be eaten: wheat into flour, soybeans into meal etc. Governments won’t do it. So it will be left to the agricultural trade houses.

That at least is the theory. Agricultural trade houses add value to the supply chain by transforming crops in space, time and form. But they won’t do that unless they are compensated for doing it. One way or another, if the world wants to eat, traders will have to be compensated for the value they add, the work that they do and the risks that they take.

If the world wants to eat, agricultural traders will not only have to survive, they will have to thrive. And if all other avenues for revenue are closed, margins on physical flows will have to become positive.

The US baseball player Yogi Berra once famously said, “In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.”

Just because the sector as a whole will thrive, it does not mean that all participants in that sector will survive. The companies that do will be the most efficient ones in terms of cutting costs and spreading risks. This means either scale or agility. We could see the bigger players getting bigger; the smaller ones getting more agile (in searching out opportunistic margins where they can find them), and the medium slower moving firms, well, getting out.

But all this could take time.  Remember, the UK economist J M Keynes once famously warned, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”.