Media Monitor

Commodities have been the best-performing major asset class for the past two years, although the FT warns that commodity trading remains risky and volatile.

The UN FAO World Food Price Index fell 1.9 per cent in December, closing the year one per cent lower than in 2021, the first annual decline since 2018. The 2022 average was, however, 14 per cent higher than the prior year.

UK food inflation hit 13.3 per cent in December, boosted by animal feed, fertiliser, and energy costs. Fresh food inflation hit 15 per cent in the month, up from 14.3 per cent in November, the highest monthly inflation rate for fresh food since records began in 2005.

About 600 ships have left Ukrainian ports carrying 16 million mt of agricultural products under the Black Sea grain corridor agreement. Despite harvesting difficulties, Ukraine’s government says that the country’s farmers could have exported three times as much.

By 6th January, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 49.5 million mt of grain from 10.7 million hectares of crops, with the yield averaging 4.64 mt/ha. They had completed the 2022 wheat and barley harvests, threshing 20.2 million and 5.8 million tonnes, respectively. In 2021, Ukraine harvested 32.2 million mt of wheat and 9.4 million mt of barley.

Russia exported over 500,000 mt of wheat from Crimea to Syria last year, a 17-fold increase over 2021.

The Baltic Dry Index began the New Year with its most significant daily percentage drop since 1984. However, Black Sea grain rates have risen to cover the higher cost of war risk insurance.

Thailand’s rice millers are worried that the country’s growers are illegally switching to cheaper and easier-to-grow Vietnamese rice.

Indonesia’s government has cut the amount of palm oil that producers can export to six times the domestic sales requirement, down from eight times currently.

The Hill compares European farming with US farming and finds the latter more efficient and sustainable. Meanwhile, Bloomberg writes that just three crops – wheat, corn, and rice – provide 50 per cent of the world’s calories. I am not sure that is correct, but the article has some great graphics.

In company news, Olam Group plans to list Olam Agri this year in Singapore, having completed the sale of a 35.43 per cent minority stake in Olam Agri for $1.24 billion to the Saudi Agriculture and Livestock Investment Co. (SALIC). The transaction was announced in March 2022 and values Olam Agri at $3.5 billion.

Although agriculture expansion has indeed driven some species to extinction, total agricultural land use may have peaked in 2000. It is now in decline due to a shift from grazing livestock to feeding them crops. (In Italy, farmers are once again grazing their livestock in the country’s forests, helping to prevent wildfires.)

At the same time, the EU’s import ban on products linked to deforestation could prompt other countries to do the same.

Many wild animals are making a comeback, including large animals such as whales and bison. Last year the first bison was born in the wild in the UK in thousands of years.

But it’s not just large animals. After nearly vanishing in the 1970s, there are more than 500 California condors in the US and Mexico, and ornithologists have discovered a nest of a titipounamu in New Zealand, a native bird thought to have been extinct for over 100 years. Lastly, there were 35 per cent more monarch butterflies in the Mexican forests in 2022 compared to 2021.

For biodiversity to thrive, the sector must continue to improve agricultural yields –which requires investment. Unfortunately, venture capital investment into the agri-tech and food sectors fell 44 per cent in 2022, while rising electricity costs are driving investors away from the vertical farming sector.

We also need governments to stop making idiotic decisions, as the Sri Lankan government did when they banned imports of fertiliser and chemical farm inputs. And although governments are encouraging sustainable farm practices,  we need them to be even braver in tackling agricultural emissions.

However, research continues, and progress is being made. For example, the US government has approved a vaccine for honeybees, while China has sent corn into space as part of research into new varieties. Finally, Syngenta will release a new type of hybrid wheat in the US next year, but only enough to plant 5,000 to 7,000 acres. (The company has been working on the project since 2010.

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© Commodity Conversations ® 2023

Media Monitor

US consumer prices in November were up 7.1 per cent from a year ago, compared to an annual increase of 7.7 per cent the month before. US grocery prices rose 0.5 per cent in November, led by an 8.9 per cent jump in the price of lettuce. The cost of eggs was up 49.1 per cent from a year earlier.

China’s farmers have shrugged off droughts, floods, and Covid hurdles to produce a record 686.53 million mt of cereals, up 0.5 per cent over 2021. It is the eighth straight year that China has produced more than 650 million mt.

India’s wheat reserves in state stores totalled 19 million mt at the start of December, down from 37.85 million mt in 2021 and the lowest in six years. Meanwhile, India’s livestock producers have called on their government to restrict corn exports to ensure sufficient poultry feed supplies.

EU cereal production should rise next year after a poor 2022 harvest. Strategie Grains forecasts soft wheat production at 128.7 million mt, up from 125.5 million this year. It estimates corn output at 63.7 million mt, up 26 per cent from a 15-year low in 2022, and barley production at 52.5 million mt, up 2.5 per cent this year.

Belarus said it would allow, without preconditions, the transit of grain from Ukraine through its territory for export from Lithuanian ports.

The UN says that 200,000 Somalis are suffering catastrophic food shortages, and many are dying of hunger, with that number expected to rise to over 700,000 next year. A long-running Islamist insurgency has compounded the problem and hampered humanitarian access to some areas.

The Conversation argues that colonial food production systems are the root of Africa’s problems, leaving Africa’s poorest people exposed, and vulnerable to climatic variability and economic shocks.

As many as 828 million people faced hunger in 2021, an increase of 150 million more people since 2019. There is enough food to feed everyone in the world today. What is lacking is the capacity to buy food that is available because of high levels of poverty and inequalities.

In 2019, the US wasted 80.6 million mt of food across all sectors, 35 per cent of the total food supply. More than one-third of that waste occurred in homes.

Meat consumption in Brazil fell sharply this year due to rising prices and health concerns. More than 90 per cent of Brazilians say they won’t return to their past meat-eating habits.

Slaughter-free meat may provide an alternative, but companies must prove they can scale up to reduce costs. Israel’s Believer Meats, known formerly as Future Meat, believe they can with their new facility under construction in the US. Equinom, another Israeli company, is concentrating on developing pea varieties for their plant-based meat products.

Could insects soon be on the menu? Adult crickets are 65 per cent protein by weight, higher than beef (23 per cent) and tofu (8 per cent).

If you struggle with which proteins have the least carbon emissions, this BBC article may help. It doesn’t include insects, but I was surprised to learn that cheese, not chicken or pork, generates the third-highest agricultural emissions, after lamb and beef.

The Netherlands, the world’s second-largest exporter of agricultural products (by value), may have to reduce livestock numbers by a third over the next eight years to halve the country’s total emissions by 2030.

In company news, Bunge Ltd will invest about $550 million to build a soy protein concentrate facility in Indiana to cater to the rising demand for plant-based food products and processed meats. The new facility will process 4.5 million bushels of soybeans annually. Construction will start in the first quarter of 2023, and the plant will be commissioned by mid-2025.

Bunge also announced it is moving its place of incorporation from Bermuda to Switzerland. Bunge’s operational headquarters will remain in St. Louis, Missouri, US.

Nestlé announced it would invest CHF 40 million in a new production site in Smolyhiv in the western part of Ukraine. The factory will employ 1,500 people and supply both Ukrainian and export markets with cold sauces, seasonings, soups, and instant food.

Meanwhile, Fonterra and Nestlé have sold their joint-venture dairy assets in Brazil owned to Lactalis for BRL700m (US$131.5m).

Cargill will donate $14 million over the next three years in its partnership with CARE to empower women in agricultural communities. Cargill and CARE have collaborated for over 60 years on the issue.

Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) has created a food and feed solutions business line that will focus on developing the company’s presence in the lecithin, glycerine and speciality feed protein areas.

Unilever may sell a portion of its US ice cream portfolio valued at as much as $3 billion. The international labels Magnum and Ben & Jerry’s are not included.

Finally, a new report confirms what we all knew: higher prices – and not increased production – are the only way to lift cocoa farmers out of poverty. However, some good news for the world’s cocoa producers: analysts expect chocolate demand to recover to per-Covid levels this Christmas.

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A Conversation: Luiz Carlos dos Santos Jr

Good morning, Luis. Thank you for taking part in this project. First off, who are you, and what do you do?

I am a vessel agent based in Santos, Brazil, representing the Unimar Shipping Agency.

Could you explain the role of a vessel agent?

Before a vessel arrives in a port to load or discharge cargo, the owner or operator must nominate a vessel agent to take care of all the formalities while the ship is in port.

The agency is usually a full agency where the agent looks after the interests of both the vessel owner and the charterer. From time to time, the ship owner will not be comfortable using the charterer’s agent and will appoint a protective agent to look after his interests. We call this a “protecting agent.”

Vessel agents are responsible for handling all the vessel’s necessary documentation for the health authorities, the federal police, and customs. The port or local authorities have no direct contact with the vessel owner or operator. Everything must go through the agent.

Vessel agents also look after the embarkation and disembarkation of the crew. Everything related to the vessel comes under the agent’s umbrella.

The agent is legally responsible for the vessel while it is in the port or on the roads. If, for example, the ship leaks oil into the port, the agent is legally responsible for the damage. I have known cases where vessel agents are fined or arrested for problems with ships.

The vessel agent is an essential part of the chain. A ship that sits in port makes no money, and there must be no delays. We must handle everything quickly and efficiently.

Do you have to provide food for the crew and fuel for the vessel?

The vessel owners usually have their preferred suppliers, but the suppliers need to go through the vessel agent. The same applies to cargo supervision companies. Everything related to the vessel passes through the agent, including cargo loading, supervision, and documentation.

What’s the difference between a vessel agent and a port agent?

It’s the same thing, but with two different names.

You mentioned that a vessel agent is legally responsible for the vessel while it is in port. Can you get liability insurance?

Yes, we are members of ITIC. They are a mutual insurer with over 3,300 members who provide professional indemnity policies at cost. We are also members of WWSA, The Worldwide Ship Agents Association.

How many vessel agents operate in Brazil or Santos? Is there a lot of competition?

Yes, there is a lot of competition. I don’t have the exact number, but there are many, both big and small.

Why would a client choose you rather than another? What are the differentiators?

Information is one differentiator. We provide statistics and market-relevant information, such as vessel line-ups. Traders and analysts use them to track fundamental flows around the world.

Service quality is another differentiator. We try to provide our clients with the best service possible – consider it the difference between flying Ryan Air and Swiss. Remember, time is money, and efficiency is everything.

And then, we build personal relationships with our clients over the years. These relationships are based on trust – trust that we will do an excellent job for our clients.

Do agents compete on cost, or is there a standard cost per vessel?

There is a standard cost, but some agents might offer discounts or rebates to loyal clients or tempt clients to try out their service. We don’t do that as we prefer to differentiate ourselves on quality rather than price. You usually get what you pay for in life.

You mentioned vessel line-ups. How do you put those together?

A vessel line-up is a list of the vessels nominated to load or already loading in the port. It includes the type of commodity, the name of the shipper – the trader – and the declared destination for that cargo. We don’t have any information as to the sales price of the shipment.

Analysts find line-ups helpful in tracking the quantity of a commodity that exporting country ships – and hence, how much is left to ship from the harvest – and the amount a destination country imports.

Of course, the vessel may not end up in the declared destination and might be resold or traded to another destination once it has left the load port, but traders can track the vessel using various tracking services.

We put the line-ups together from both public and private information. Whenever a vessel is nominated to a port, it is declared to the authorities. That information is in the public domain.

The Santos vessel agents meet regularly to coordinate the vessels they manage, and we often share information about where our ships are going. Not everyone wants to share. In addition to our weekly meetings, we also share information electronically.

You live and work in Santos, the biggest commodity port in Brazil, in terms of volume.

Santos started as a coffee port. It is the biggest port in Latin America. Brazil has about 35 sugar and grains terminals; twelve are in Santos.

From January to November this year (2022), Santos exported 81 mln mt of beans, 30.8 mln mt of corn, and 21.9 mln mt of sugar. Santos shipped 131 mln mt of beans, corn, wheat, rice, and sugar in eleven months.

Does that include containers?

No, it is just bulk.

Container shipments have declined since the pandemic hit. Container rates skyrocketed during Covid with a lot of boxes stuck in ports. Shippers responded to these higher rates by moving from containers to breakbulk shipments – bagged commodities transported in bulk vessels. Even coffee exporters began shipping in small breakbulk vessels. In the past, they transported coffee in containers.

Markets are constantly changing. Container rates fell in the 2000s, and sugar exporters shifted massively from breakbulk to containers. They closed or dismantled their bag-loading terminals. This situation has now reversed.

I have read about drug traffickers breaking into containers at Santos and putting drugs in them. Is that an issue?

It is a problem, not just in Santos but in all ports worldwide. Exporters now use dogs to search for drugs in containers before they load them onto vessels. It should alleviate the problem.

What is it like being a vessel agent?

Hard work! Except for 1st January each year, ports never stop. Ports work 24/7, and so do we.

Our senior controllers work regular office hours from eight to six, but we also have a night shift when junior staff man the phones and emails.

We usually handle more than one vessel at a time, which can sometimes be quite stressful. Technology has made our lives easier. Everything is linked electronically to the Brazilian health, police, port, and customs systems. In the past, we physically had to go to the various authority buildings with the paper documents, but now we file everything electronically.

There are heavy fines if we do not complete the information correctly or on time.

What is your biggest challenge as an agent?

The big trading companies are setting up or acquiring vessel agents to handle their business. ADM, Cargill, and Bunge have their own agency companies, leaving less for independent agencies like us. We must compete hard for business.

How did you get into the business?

I started with a container shipping company and worked in London for a long time. In 1994, Wilson & Sons approached me to build an agency business around sugar. I travelled back and forth to Europe, particularly London, commercializing the service. I knew we had to provide a better service than our competitors. It wasn’t easy, but we quickly built the business. I joined Unimar in 2009.

You are a native of Santos. Was your family involved in shipping?

No, my family had nothing to do with shipping or commodities. I was the only one.

You had just completed an endurance event in the Amazon jungle when I first met you.

Yes, I participated in the Adventure Races endurance events for three years before I injured myself. The longest I did was 300km – a mixture of cycling, running, hiking, and canoeing – often over 48 hours. We competed in a team of either two or four people. We had to be self-supporting. Things began to get serious when our team won a 220km event. We also did 260km in 36 hours, which was fast.

It was my way to boost adrenaline as you must push yourself. I love being in nature. Competing in these events was an excellent way to be outside. I found it relaxing.

Did you ever get lost?

Yes. I was lost in the jungle for more than a day. I was in a team of two, and we eventually stumbled on a highway and got out. It was interesting.

Did you panic?

No, I was more frustrated that we were out of the race. We had trained so hard for it. We had enough food and water. We were well equipped. In the end, I lost the race but not my integrity.

When I first met you, you also worked with the local schools.

I still do. I started a social project in Santos in 2008, teaching English to underprivileged children. I also teach classes on the environment and biodiversity.

In 2012, I purchased six cameras on a trip to Japan and began teaching photography to 15–18-year-olds on Saturday mornings. We had to stop it during the pandemic, but we are now preparing to restart the classes. It is a great programme – a big success. Some of the kids I taught now work as photographers.

In 2016, a contact at National Geographic asked me to extend the programme to Mozambique. I went there with my six cameras and two of my former students. We taught 24 kids over two weeks, each week with twelve kids with one camera for two kids. A Geneva company sponsored the cost.

Last July, one of my former students in Mozambique messaged me to tell me he now works as a photographer and is training to be a tracker for National Geographic. He sent me some of his photographs. It made me cry with happiness.

National Geographic has published your photographs. How did that come about?

I attended a National Geographic seminar in Portugal, where I talked to one of their editors and showed her my work. She asked me to upload some of my African pictures to their photo bank, and they published some in their magazine. They only pay you if they publish the photo. You don’t get paid for contributing pictures to their photo bank.

In 2019, I went to Mongolia for a solo photo expedition, and they published some photos I took there. They have also published some photos I took in the Brazilian jungle during Covid when I couldn’t travel abroad. I haven’t been to Africa since pre-Covid, but I will soon go back.

I hear you also organize group tours.

Yes, but only private groups of three to six people. Everyone must help with the cooking and the tents and follow the “no-talking” rule. It is for people that want the experience.

What is the secret behind a good photo? Is it patience, light, luck, or equipment?

 It is a mixture of all four, but patience is the key to wildlife photography. When you do photography in a studio, you can do it repeatedly until you get it right. When you are in the bush, you often only get one shot. Some things can help, like not taking showers or wearing perfume – and not talking!

The first photo of mine that National Geographic published was of a leopard in Namibia. I stayed two days under a tree with that leopard – two days with only the food and water I had. She was a young female who had killed a springbok and hauled the carcass into a tree. I named her Kika.

Have you ever had a frightening moment on a photo safari – attacked by lions or elephants?

A lion passed close behind me once when I was in Botswana. I didn’t move. Bad things can happen, and you must respect certain limits and rules.

OK, that’s all the questions I have about you and the business of being a vessel agent. Is there any message you would like to give a young person thinking about a career in our industry?

Am I allowed four messages?

Yes!

I think these four messages apply to all young people regardless.

First and most important: never stop dreaming.

Second: whatever you do, do it with passion.

Third: constantly reinvent yourself and adapt as the world changes around you.

Fourth: always look for ways to grow personally and professionally.

I love what I do, even in difficult moments.

Thank you, Luiz!

This conversation is part of the Commodity Professions – The People Behind the Trade series.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

Media Monitor

The EU will ban imports of products that have contributed to recent deforestation or forest degradation. The ban will cover palm oil, cattle, soy, coffee, cocoa, timber, rubber, beef, furniture, chocolate, printed paper, and selected palm oil-based derivates.

An impact assessment from the EC estimates that the new law will protect at least 71,920 ha of forest annually and reduce annual global carbon emissions by 31.9 million mt.

Global conservation efforts, currently focused on the COP15 summit in Montreal, will fail unless they address the underlying issue of food production. A shift to vegan diets and cultured meats could help.

However, the FT questions whether people will want to eat lab-grown meat. As for plant-based meat, Beyond Meat product sales have fallen 22.5 per cent in one year, and their share price is down 77 per cent so far this year. (Tofu won’t save the planet, either.)

But if you want to reduce the carbon footprint of your food, focus on what you eat, not whether your food is local. (This is an excellent article. I highly recommend it.)

Perhaps the solution is to close livestock farms. The Dutch government is doing just that by planning to purchase and close up to 3,000 farms to comply with EU environmental mandates to slash emissions. The government will offer farmers “well over” the worth of their farm to encourage them to sell voluntarily.

New Zealand is trying a different approach with its proposed fart tax on livestock methane emissions. With more than 50,000 farms, over 10 million cows and 26 million sheep, farming is responsible for more than half of the country’s GHG emissions.

Cargill’s CEO told Bloomberg that the sluggish pace of vessel inspections has recently slowed Ukraine’s grain exports. “The challenge is the working conditions for the port workers and all the infrastructure that goes into getting the crops out,” he said.

He added that Cargill sticks by its decision to keep operating in Russia. “We feed the people of Russia, and that food also feeds people in the Middle East and Africa. For us to leave would’ve been detrimental,” he said. However, if they decide to leave, there is a buyer for Cargill’s (and Viterra’s) Russian assets.

Russia’s total grain exports, excluding supplies to Kazakhstan, Armenia and Belarus, are expected to reach 26 million mt in July-December, up 10 per cent from a year ago.

At a time when the West should be doing all it can to help Ukrainian farmers, Poland has asked the EU to impose restrictions on imports of some foods from Ukraine.

The WSJ reports that a Russian oligarch has seized 400,000 acres of Ukrainian farmland, becoming one of the biggest farm operators in the country.

Contrary to what you might have read, at 270,000 acres, Bill Gates is not the largest owner of US farmland. The title goes to the chairman of Liberty Media Corp, who owns 2.2 million acres. But even that is small beer compared to the 900 million farm acres in the US.

It’s been a tough weather year for California’s farmers, although advances in plant breeding have made modern crops more resilient to dry weather than they were 20 years ago.

Australian farmers have had better luck and could produce a record wheat crop despite heavy flooding.

Brazil is also doing well. Conab has forecast Brazil’s total grain crop at a record 312.2 million mt, up 15 per cent from the previous year. The government agency pins soybean production at 153.48 million mt, up 22.2 per cent year-on-year, and expects corn output to jump 11.2 per cent to 125.83 million mt.

India’s spending on subsidized food grain to the poor may rise to 2.7 trillion rupees ($32.74 billion) this fiscal year, 30 per cent more than the 2.07 trillion rupees ($25.14 billion) estimated in the budget.

The easing of Covid restrictions in China may ease some pressure on farmers struggling to get their crops to market.

The European Commission has extended the EU authorization for the use of the herbicide glyphosate until the end of 2023. The authorization had been due to expire on December 15 of this year.

A post-Brexit farm-subsidy scheme designed to reward landowners in England for environmental work is going forward after a controversial review. Even so, the National Farmers Union has warned that the UK is sleepwalking into a food crisis, fuelled by rising costs, falling yields, and labour shortages.

UK supermarkets, meanwhile, are making record profits. The country’s government has said it will not intervene in food pricing.

In biofuel news, Bunge’s CEO sees a future in renewable fuels despite a potential shift to electrification.

Finally, some good news for farmers and consumers everywhere: fertilizer prices continue to fall from the highs made earlier this year. Lower energy prices and slow demand are behind the weakness. Freight rates for bulk carriers are also falling – down 50 per cent from a year earlier.

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The UN FAO world food price index fell marginally in November, marking an eighth straight monthly fall since a record high in March. The index averaged 135.7 points in November, down from 135.9 for October, and is only 0.3 per cent higher than last November.

In its latest update, the World Bank predicts that, after an 18 per cent increase in 2022, world food prices will decline by 6 per cent in 2023 and stabilise in 2024. Global food prices peaked in April, but there are still risks in the supply chain.

Russian winter cereal planting has stalled due to poor weather, with 17.6 million ha planted as of 28th November. By comparison, farmers planted 18.3 million ha at the same time last year.

Ukraine’s farmers had sown 4.5 million ha – or 94 per cent of the expected area as of 29th November. Farmers had completed winter wheat sowing by the same date in 2021 with 6.2 million ha.

Ukraine has exported almost 18.1 million mt of grain so far in the 2022/23 season, down 29.6 per cent from the 25.8 million mt shipped by the same stage of the previous season. The volume included more than 6.9 million mt of wheat, 9.7 million mt of corn and about 1.5 million mt of barley.

Ukraine is pushing for larger ships to use its crop-export corridor to bolster volumes in the face of inspection delays. More than 500 ships have used the passage, with about half smaller than 15,000 mt.

Around 450,000 mt of Ukrainian grain are transported via Poland each month, up more than 50 per cent from the middle of the year.

The WSJ has investigated Russian shipments of stolen Ukrainian grain. (If you don’t subscribe to the WSJ, you can read the story on Fox News.)

Several countries will support Ukraine’s initiative to supply subsidised grain to Africa. Among the backers are the US ($20 million), France ($20 million), the UK ($6 million), Sweden ($9.5 million), Austria ($3.9 million), and Canada ($30 million).

Countries, charities — and Ukrainian farmers — will fund roughly 15 million mt of additional grain storage in Ukraine. Russia has knocked out 14 per cent of Ukraine’s grain storage, with overall storage capacity falling to 49.8 million mt.

After meeting the US Secretary of Agriculture, Mexico’s President said he is seeking a deal on Mexico’s ban on genetically modified corn in 2024. The US has threatened legal action against the plan. Mexico is the second-largest importer of corn in the world after China, and the ban could result in Mexico halving its US imports of yellow corn.

Farmers in eastern Australia face the challenge of washed-out roads and shuttered rail links as they prepare for harvest.

Last week I wrote that severe weather had less of a negative impact on agriculture in Spain than in Portugal. I spoke too soon. The Spanish government estimates climate-event damages in 2022 will likely surpass the more than 720 million euros registered in 2021.

France’s drought-hit sugar beet output is expected to fall more than seven per cent this year. Next season could see another drop in planted area if farmers switch to more profitable grain crops.

The US administration has proposed sweeping changes to the US biofuel mandate that shift the focus away from liquid fuels to a broader plan aimed at decarbonising transportation. The EPA has invited public feedback on the proposed changes to the 2005 Renewable Fuel Standard.

Soybean and corn futures fell on the news, with soy oil sliding as much as 6.3 per cent. Shares in ADM and Bunge also fell.

GASC, Egypt’s state grains buyer, has launched an exchange to purchase grain on international markets and sell it on the domestic market. (I am unsure how it will work – any clarification would be welcome!)

Cargill has acquired Owensboro Grain Company, LLC, a fifth-generation family-owned soybean processing facility and refinery in Owensboro, Kentucky.

Although container shipping rates peaked in Q2 this year, liner shipping companies could post a full-year 2022 net profit of $223.4bn, a 50 per cent improvement over the record profits made in 2021.

Some good news: European wildlife numbers are increasing again following years of decline. Even bison are making a comeback.

Brazil’s incoming president met with the soy industry to discuss a new pact to stop deforestation in the Cerrado savanna, modelled on a similar agreement signed in 2006 for the Amazon.

Some bad news: a new study published in Nature warns increasing ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific will intensify the El Niño and La Niña phenomena that have been fuelling droughts and floods around the globe.

The BBC asks whether centuries-old wheat could help feed the planet. Geneticists are working with London’s Natural History Museum to find out.

The top fifteen commodity hedge funds have increased their assets by 50 per cent this year to $20.7 billion as investors look to hedge against inflation and profit from supply chain disruptions.

The London School of Economics estimates that Brexit has added £210 to food bills for the average UK household. Over the two years through the end of 2021, food prices rose 6 per cent because of so-called non-tariff barriers in the form of border checks.

Bloomberg has launched a new daily energy and commodities newsletter called Elements. (Bloomberg subscribers can sign up for it here.) In the first edition, Javier Blas looks at the 50 per cent fall in the cotton price and asks whether it is a sign that inflation has peaked.

Finally, UNESCO has put France’s beloved baguette on their cultural heritage list. The list already includes 600 traditions from more than 130 countries, such as truffle hunting in Italy, Czech handmade Christmas tree decorations, and Ukrainian borscht.

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The UN Secretary-General told the G20 Summit, “We are on the way to a raging food catastrophe,” with “five separate places facing famine.” He warned that this year’s affordability issues will lead to food shortages in 2023.

Ukraine’s 2022 grain harvest will fall to 51 million mt in 2022 from a record 86 million mt in 2021 because of Russia’s invasion. Farmers have so far harvested around 39 million mt.

Argentina’s third year of drought threatens the country’s farm sector. Some farmers have lost their entire wheat crop. If it doesn’t rain soon, soybean production could also be hit. Meanwhile, California’s historic drought could cost the state’s farmers $3 billion.

Floods in Australia could reduce the protein content of their wheat, turning much of the harvest into grain fit only for animal feed and reducing the quantity for flour milling.

The drought in Portugal has led to a 40 per cent drop in olive production and a 45 per cent drop in fruit production. Farmers in Spain seem less affected.

Higher interest rates will add to farm costs and may begin to impact US agricultural production. The sector’s total interest expense could hit $26.45 billion this year, nearly a third higher than last year and the highest in inflation-adjusted terms since 1990.

A threatened national rail strike in the US could add to farmers’ woes. CNN estimates it could cost the country $1 billion.

Truck drivers protesting the recent election results are blocking traffic in NNE Brazil. So far, the action has not affected exports, although truck freight rates have risen 20 per cent.

The UK is suffering an egg shortage following the country’s worst outbreak of bird flu on record. Bloomberg argues that the crisis is another example of the fragility of the food supply chain.

The US has blocked imports of sugar produced in the Dominican Republic by the Central Romana company on the suspicion that the miller employs forced labour.

Indonesia’s Bulog plans to import up to 500,000 mt of rice to add to reserves and buy another 500,000 mt of rice from local farmers.

The IMO will shortly introduce new environmental regulations that index the carbon intensity of individual ships. The measures seem to please no one. However, there is hope on the (distant) horizon. In the future, most cargo ships should be partially sail-driven.

In company news, Nestlé announced that it would invest $1.86 billion in Saudi Arabia over the next decade, starting with a factory to make infant products and ready-to-drink coffee. Meanwhile, Nespresso is launching compostable coffee pods to complement their (already recyclable) aluminium ones.

Cargill has a new CEO, the tenth in the company’s 157-year history.

Bunge has agreed to buy 49 per cent of France’s BZ Group, the owner of a silo facility in Rouen, which exports around 1.5 million mt of agricultural commodities annually.

In biofuel news, Brazil announced it will maintain its mandatory biodiesel blend at 10 per cent until 31st March 2023, when it will increase to 15 per cent. However, the incoming administration promptly said it would cancel that decision and increase the mandate to 14 per cent in January.

The percentage of the US labour force employed in agriculture is likely to fall even further with the advent of self-driving tractors and farm equipment. About 1.3 per cent of the US labour force is engaged in farming, down from 60 per cent in 1850 and eight per cent in 1950. (Agriculture employs up to 80 per cent of the workforce in some African countries.)

Regarding technology, the US is going the way of the Netherlands, the world’s second-largest exporter of agricultural products by value (after the US).

The Economist writes that attempts to increase cocoa prices and boost cocoa production in West Africa are not succeeding.

Wired Magazine argues we couldn’t feed the world without processed food (spam, anyone?). Wired is less optimistic about vertical farming, arguing that it will have little impact on the world food supply if it only grows salad.

Finally, the Visual Capitalist has some graphics that show where our food is grown – far from where most of it originated.

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Media Monitor

Russia is extending Ukraine’s agricultural Black Sea export corridor for 120 days despite reservations over its food and fertiliser exports. Since July, Ukraine has shipped 11.1 million mt of agricultural commodities under the deal, including 4.5 million mt of corn and 3.2 million mt of wheat.

Unfortunately,  more must be done to evacuate the hundreds of seafarers stuck on vessels in Ukrainian ports.

Ukrainian farmers had harvested 39.1 million mt of grain from 81 per cent of the expected area as of 17th November. Farmers had completed the 2022 wheat and barley harvests, producing 19.4 million and 5.6 million mt, respectively, down from 32.2 million mt of wheat and 9.4 million mt of barley harvested in 2021.

The FAO Food Price Index fell for the seventh month in a row in October, averaging 135.9 points. The index has fallen 14.9 per cent from its peak in March this year but remains two per cent above a year ago.

The FAO warns that the world’s food import bill could climb to a record $1.94 trillion in 2022, $128.6 billion more than predicted in June.

UK food price inflation hit an annual rate of 16.5 per cent in October, the highest for 45 years. The increase could add £682 to the average British household’s yearly shopping bill. Annual food price inflation was 10.9 per cent in October in the US  and 13.1 per cent in the EU.

Cargill’s CEO is optimistic that food prices will decline next year, although he warns, “All it takes is one really bad crop, let’s say in North America or South America, to really send prices higher.”

Scientists in Israel are creating a gene bank from the seeds of local wild crops that may help farmers deal with a harsher climate. The seeds come from the Fertile Crescent region, the birthplace of crop cultivation.

The FT believes the mood is shifting on public acceptance of gene-edited crops compared to gene-modified ones. Not everyone agrees.

Kenya will soon import GM corn for the first time, but the decision remains controversial. Meanwhile, India’s farmers have taken the country’s decision to allow gene-edited rapeseed to the supreme court.

Low water levels in the Mississippi River continue to present shipping problems. PBS has an excellent video on the subject, while Newsweek also looks at the situation. A threatened rail strike could aggravate delays.

The New York Times has a long read on the record-high price of US farmland and how it impacts local communities. Land prices may, however, have plateaued. Meanwhile, farmers criticise Bill Gates over his extensive land purchases.

The European Commission has published a plan to ensure the availability and affordability of fertilisers.  Few think it will work.

The UK government is again tinkering with the country’s £3 billion agriculture support payments post-Brexit. Meanwhile, some UK supermarkets are limiting egg purchases per customer in the face of avian flu.

The COP27 climate summit has been in the headlines. The world’s major agricultural commodity suppliers presented a strategy to reduce agricultural emissions and end deforestation as part of a pathway to keep global warming below 1.5°C. The Guardian was unimpressed.

Egypt presented an initiative called ‘Food and Agriculture for Sustainable Transformation’ (FAST). With the FAO as a facilitator, it aims to unite nations under a vision to “transform” agriculture and food systems this decade, aligning them with a 1.5C temperature.

The UN published a report on how cold food chains can reduce food waste. The UN estimates 14 per cent of the total food produced for human consumption is lost, while 17 per cent is wasted, enough to feed around one billion people. (The world is making little progress on reducing food waste. The average American wastes more than 700 calories of food per day – about a third of recommended daily intake.)

Reuters reports that farmers across the globe are losing the battle to preserve their soil in the face of climate change. The situation is particularly dire in East Africa. Forbes argues that farmers must do more to embrace sustainability to feed the eight billion people living on our planet (up more than five billion in my lifetime).

A Dutch vertical farm has successfully grown wheat on an indoor farm without soil. It says that at scale, vertical farming could yield the equivalent of 117 mt/ha per year or 26 times that of open-field farming yields. However, some question whether vertical farms are environmentally friendly.

The Guardian quotes a report arguing that we could rewild 75 per cent of agricultural land if we replaced livestock farming with fermentation.

In a first for the US, the FDA has given a safety clearance to a California-based company that makes meat from cultured chicken cells.

The Washington Post examines the reasons for the drop in plant-based meats and dairy demand. Nestlé remains bullish on plant-based meat, believing that future growth will come from flexitarians rather than vegetarians or vegans. Cargill has a roughly similar outlook for the plant-based dairy sector.

Finally, a message to dog owners: feed your pet dry, rather than wet, food. Wet food creates 690 per cent more greenhouse gas emissions than dry food. Regarding food consumption, a ten-kilogram dog eating wet food has an annual carbon “pawprint” roughly equal to the human footprint.

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© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

Media Monitor

The UN is optimistic that the Ukrainian grain deal will be extended beyond mid-November. However, Russia’s UN ambassador said Moscow must first see movement on its own exports.

Kyiv has accused Russia of blocking the full implementation of the current agreement, and the UN said that urgent steps are needed to relieve a backlog of more than 150 ships. Vessels now wait 14 days for inspection.  A total of 397 vessels have exported nine million mt of Ukrainian grains and oilseeds since the corridor opened in August.

Ukraine has kept its forecast for winter wheat sowing at 3.8 million ha, down from 6 million ha for the 2022 harvest (of which farmers harvested only 4.6 million hectares). Bloomberg has an interesting piece on the Ukrainian situation with an interview with the son of the late founder of Nibulon.

Pakistan’s tender for 500,000 mt of wheat kept traders busy this week. Russia’s state trading company Prodintorg (remember them) raised the idea of a government-to-government deal to exchange wheat for rice and potatoes.

Meanwhile, India is considering importing Russian wheat to process and reexport it as flour and pasta.

Drought could reduce Argentina’s 2022/23 wheat harvest to 13.7 million mt, down from a previous forecast of 15 million mt. The harvest could be the worst in seven years and well below the record 23 million mt last year.

Severe flooding is likely to reduce Australia’s wheat production. A farmer told ABC, “You spend all this money preparing your paddocks, sowing your crops, fertilising, and spraying them, only to see them wiped out a couple of weeks before harvest. It’s heartbreaking.”

Brazil’s soybean farmers are holding back new crop sales in the expectation that La Nina may cause drought losses. China is suffering a nearby shortage of soybean meal, leaving farmers short of animal feed. China’s soybean crush volume declined last week, as did soybean stocks.

French farmers have said high energy costs could lead to bottlenecks in the food supply chain. Swiss dairy farmers face an acute forage shortage after the dry summer. Fodder prices have increased 40 per cent since last year.

The EU has forecast its drought-hit maise (corn) harvest at a 15-year low of 54.9 million mt, down from an earlier forecast of 55.5 million.

Mexico will push ahead with its 2024 ban on GM corn. The government said the ban could halve US corn imports and expect domestic production to make up the shortfall.

India has approved GM rapeseed, paving the way for the commercial use of its first GM food crop.

Climate change could make coffee cultivation in India uneconomic. The sector is already struggling with high costs and a labour shortage.

Bolivia has suspended exports of food products, including soybeans, grains, sugar, oil, and beef, to safeguard domestic food security.

Hurricane Ian caused as much as $1.8 billion in damages to Florida agriculture last month, with the most significant losses coming from citrus.

The European spot price for gas briefly turned negative last week following a steep drop in consumption. The FT cites EU fertiliser production as one of the low-value-added businesses that ceased operating. Meanwhile, Brazil has reexported its second fertiliser cargo due to a lack of domestic storage capacity.

ADM reported a 96 per cent increase in its third-quarter profit, bolstered by high demand and tight global grain supplies. Bunge posted better-than-expected results for the quarter and raised its full-year earnings outlook. Analysts expect both companies to gain from the rise in US renewable diesel.

In what could have a significant impact on the European biofuel sector, the EU has agreed on a zero-emissions sales mandate for new cars and vans by 2035, effectively banning the sale of new internal combustion engine cars from that date.

The Global Alliance for the Future of Food published a report showing that global governments direct only three per cent of their climate dollars toward food and agriculture systems.

An Uyghur organisation and a human rights group are taking the UK government to court to challenge Britain’s failure to block the import of cotton products from China’s Xinjiang region.

Shipping companies are trying out technologies that blow bubbles underneath a ship’s hull to save fuel and reduce emissions.

Mondelez has said it would commit an additional $600 million in sustainability funding for cocoa until 2030, on top of $400mn invested over the past decade.

Callebaut has launched second-generation chocolate with around 50 per cent less sugar and 60-80 per cent more cocoa than traditional chocolate. The company wants to ‘put cocoa first, sugar last’.

Finally, a US billionaire wants to disrupt the food supply business with a van that turns up at your doorstep and cooks your dinner on the spot.

Some of the above links require subscriptions – please support quality journalism.  My next news summary will be published on 18th November.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

A conversation with Jules Stow

Good afternoon, Jules. I believe that your father was a freight broker; did you get into the commodity business because of him?

Well remembered; my father was indeed a shipbroker and a director of the Baltic Exchange. The only career advice he gave me was to not go into shipbroking. For once, I followed his advice. I still focused on the city, sending over 300 application letters to various banks and brokerages in the hope of becoming a foreign exchange trader. I found a copy of one of the letters the other day. I was shocked at how punchy, pushy, aggressive, and arrogant I was at 21!

Goldman Sachs invited me for an interview (which didn’t translate into a job offer). While in their office, I met their one and only commodity trader (at that time). It sparked my interest in commodities. My father was friendly with the CEO of ED&F Man, and I had been at school with his son, Andrew. I applied to EDF Man as a sugar trader, but they turned me down because of my lack of language skills.

My brother-in-law told me that Czarnikow was looking for trainee sugar traders. I applied, and they gave me the job. They also gave me responsibility right from the first day. I loved it. I stayed with them for ten years.

After an initial period in London, Czarnikow sent me to Singapore, where their office handled Queensland’s sugar exports. There were only four of us in the office, and one of those other three, Peggy, still works there. She just celebrated her 50th year with the company.

After a few years in Singapore, I moved back to London, where I looked after Czarnikow’s Moscow office, but from London.

A few years later, ED&F Man offered me a job to return to Singapore to manage their Asian trading book. I had just turned thirty and viewed it as an opportunity that I couldn’t turn down.

As a company, Czarnikow prioritized client relationships; they always put their clients first. EDF Man were pure traders, and it was, I felt, a more transactional environment. I wasn’t entirely comfortable with their approach, and during the four years I was with them, I slowly fell out of love with physical trading.

In 2008, Barclays Capital offered me a derivative-trading position in Singapore and then London. I took it and stayed with them for about four great years before the bank ran into difficulties in copper and wound down the commodities business. I jumped across to Standard Chartered. They had about five traders on their commodities desk, but facing regulatory headwinds, they, too, wound down the size of their trading business after three years.

I found a position with Oak Capital in the City. They were market makers in oil, looking to expand into agricultural markets. They liked to move quickly, jobbing in and out of the market. I was more of a long-term trader who entered the market based on my perception of market fundamentals – and I held a position even if the market went against me in the short term. They weren’t comfortable with that. Our trading philosophies were a mismatch.

While at Oak Capital, I began to take an interest in quantitative trading. Quant trading involves using computer algorithms and programs—based on mathematical models—to identify and capitalize on trading opportunities. It consists of researching historical data to identify patterns and profit opportunities.

I felt that I was too emotional as a trader. I loved the idea of taking emotion out of my trading and trusting the algorithms. I started off down the rabbit hole!

Seasonality is a big part of agriculture, which is a natural fit with algorithms – and I did a lot of work on calendar spreads and relative value. I set up my own business running and designing systematic trading strategies for small hedge funds. The systems struggled during the Trump years when many historical patterns broke down. I then ran into Covid and lockdown.

I had a long hard think about what I wanted to do. I was in my late forties and realized I didn’t want to trade anymore. I think it is an age thing. Trading is a stressful business, but you only realize just how stressful when you stop.

A headhunter friend asked me what I enjoyed about trading – what excited me. I was shocked to realize that I couldn’t think of anything!

As we talked, I realized that the time I most enjoyed in my career was when I was at Czarnikow, building relationships and finding solutions for our clients. You don’t have that on the derivative side of the business.

My friend suggested that my interpersonal skills and experience would be well suited to headhunting, and I sought out the advice of Jakob Bloch at Commodity Appointments who I had been in a process with some years back. He confirmed that view and invited me to join him at CA – and here I am!

Commodity traders are primarily young. They have a limited shelf-life. You reinvented yourself as a headhunter, but what do you recommend other traders do when they get too old to trade?

I consider myself very lucky to have somehow solved that puzzle. I have just turned 50, and I am now seeing CVs from friends and former colleagues my age. The funnel narrows as you swim towards the top.

I think older traders need to identify which aspect of their job they genuinely enjoy and then orientate themselves in that direction. If like me, they decide that they don’t want to do it anymore, I suggest they consider moving on to something else.

It might sound negative, but it isn’t. It is incredibly positive. Traders, particularly physical traders, are great entrepreneurs. Trading is an entrepreneurial business that you must look at holistically. Every time you do something, you must ask what effect it will have on other parts of the supply chain.

So, my advice would be to see what business you want to be involved in and start it! You have the skills you need, so decide which niche interests you.

Are you a headhunter or a recruitment consultant?

I am a headhunter. As with any business, there is a spectrum. At one end, you have the uber-high-end individuals. On the other, you may be placing temps.

Commodity Appointments is a relatively boutique firm where we concentrate on the higher end of the spectrum. It is more of a numbers game if you come into recruiting straight out of university. In my situation, I try to utilize the network I developed in my earlier career. My edge is that I have sat in the seats of the clients and the candidates. It helps the conversation.

We are a commodity-specialist firm, and we only operate within commodities. We specialize in the front office, typically traders – especially physical traders. We have strong power, gas, and utilities networks, and I bring experience from agriculture and financial institutions. If you are a senior trader, you would probably want someone with similar experience to represent you. If you are a 25-year-old making your first job move, you would probably want someone of a similar age and understanding who is more relatable and relevant to you.

Apart from experience, what skills do you need as a headhunter?

Emotional Intelligence and the ability to empathize – to listen and not just hear what people tell you. You can never have a bad conversation, even if it eventually comes to nothing. The more data points you have, the better. Each talk is a data point. A big part of headhunting is joining those dots.

We are all different, so it is a matter of making the most of your skill sets. I am quite an affable guy, and I enjoy chatting with people. That’s my thing. Other headhunters may be more quantitative and analytical. You don’t have to be a particular person, but it is a people business. You can’t rub people up the wrong way – you wouldn’t last long!

Talk me through the process.

Most people misunderstand what a headhunter does. They look at it from the candidate’s point of view and think that a headhunter can magic them up a job. But that’s not how it works. It is the opposite.

The hiring clients drive the process. They contract us on a retained or contingency/success basis. If a client doesn’t retain us, we will at least want exclusivity. It doesn’t look good on me if I am the fifth headhunter to call a candidate about the same position.

We will sit with the client to work out what skills and experience they are seeking. There will sometimes be a job description, but the HR department often writes job descriptions with only an arm’s length idea of what is needed.

I prefer to sit with the head of the desk or with the person to whom the candidate will ultimately report. I need to understand the firm’s culture, the team dynamics, the essential skills, and the nice-to-haves. We will then put together a list of candidates and approach them to see if they are willing to move.

Being prepared to move is an important issue, particularly with senior people. They will be reluctant to move to a firm that might not have a long-term commitment to the business. A bird-in-the-hand is worth two in the bush.

I think of a candidate list as a colouring book that hasn’t been coloured in. My job is to colour it in –  to provide the information that you don’t see on a cv and which might not naturally come out in an interview. I sometimes feel a bit like a priest. Candidates tell me stuff they wouldn’t tell colleagues or competitors, and I must treat that in confidence. It adds colour and detail to a profile, and my job is to try and impart that as successfully as possible to the client.

Is headhunting a competitive business?

Yes and no. The advent of LinkedIn has made some aspects of the job more straightforward and, therefore, more competitive. There are few barriers to entry in headhunting.  Over the past few years, some large companies have employed people from headhunting firms to do in-house recruitment, but as far as I can see, many still engage headhunters anyway.

Some hedge funds don’t care whether everyone knows if they are looking for people and will simultaneously give the task to half a dozen headhunters and post the vacancy on LinkedIn and their website. However, the less transactional clients will generally only work through one headhunter they trust. It brings it all back to the essence of the job, which is the power of personal relationships. You may have 10,000 connections on LinkedIn, but it doesn’t mean anything unless you have at least some degree of connection on a personal level.

Your description sounds like what I used to do when I was broking physical cargoes. You broker people – but it is the same. I tend to avoid conflict and prefer physical broking to trading. With broking, you look for a win-win situation where everyone is happy – like what you were doing at Czarnikow – while as a physical trader, you ultimately have winners and losers. It makes me wonder whether you would have been better as a broker than as a trader – and that you may have missed your true vocation.

Your analogy of a broker is a good one. I happily chat with people all day long with no objective other than to try and find out what the employment market is doing – who is moving where, which firms are doing well – that sort of thing. When you were a broker, and someone came to you with a cargo to sell, you would already have a short list of potential buyers. The same applies to me. When a client approaches me with an open position, I already know who might fill it.

Have I been in the wrong job? It is almost too depressing to think about it, but I don’t think so. I enjoyed my experience as a physical trader, working with clients to get the most out of the market. I don’t think trading has to be transactional. I moved on to derivatives and loved it, perhaps because the market, not a particular client, was on the other side of the trade. There is no conflict when the market is your counterparty.

Was I any good as a derivatives trader? I was good enough to last as long as I did. If you are bad at it, you don’t stay more than a few months. But, on the other hand, if I had been excellent at it, I would have retired by now.

I feel lucky to have come into headhunting. I don’t think I should have transitioned into it sooner, as that would have meant missing out on something else. I am unusual to have come out of trading into headhunting. My experience as a trader helps me enormously in my current role. I think I am a better headhunter for having been a trader.

So, if you are a trader wondering whether to shift across to headhunting, I would advise looking at it closely. You would likely have a lot to offer.

 How does a headhunter get paid?

It varies between firms, but the employer generally pays a percentage of the first-year compensation package, including a signing-on fee if there is one. We prefer to concentrate on a few high-paying positions and do them well rather than doing many smaller ones.

 Could you describe a typical day?

I never looked at my diary when trading unless I was travelling somewhere. I knew when the market opened and closed, and that was enough. My working life now is divided into half-hour chunks. I spend most of my day speaking to people via video conference or telephone. I don’t know what life was like before Zoom and Microsoft Teams, but I suspect you just picked up the phone and called people. Now, I schedule most of my conversations.

Technology has set me free as I can now work between home and the office, but it is easy to get holed up and become a technology prisoner. It is essential to meet people in person, even without a specific reason. The best conversations I have are with people I meet for a coffee where there is no agenda. There is no substitute for face-to-face discussions.

I spend a couple of hours daily on video calls, but I haven’t swapped my trading screen for a video one. As a trader, you are a slave to your screen. I am glad to have left that behind.

I do my research. I constantly work to broaden my network, turn my second-level contacts into first-level ones, and learn about new markets like energy, power, and gas.

 Your company handles recruitment across metals, energy and ags. Are ag traders different from metals and energy traders?

I prefer to divide the market between derivative traders and physical traders. I think that physical agricultural commodity people are a breed apart. Energy guys have a confident swagger – and more of a dangerous look behind their eyes!

Most physical traders are social. They must be to get business done with their clients – real people. Most derivative traders don’t deal with people, just their market screens or OTC brokers. And any OTC broker will tell you they don’t get treated like real people!

What positions are employers looking to fill now – data scientists, programmers, sustainability professionals?

I see a great deal of interest in quants and data scientists. Commodity markets are booming while investors are looking to diversify their portfolios – the two are interrelated. Some funds are struggling to deploy some of their inflows and looking to diversify into commodities and agriculture.

We see a lot of demand, but it is a small talent pool. When a hedge wants an agri-commodities quant, there aren’t many people to choose from simply because it’s such a young sector.

The funds do realize that commodity markets are different. There is no point in taking a quant off, say, crypto and asking them to build a model around cocoa. They need someone who understands the underlying nature of the agricultural markets. It is a challenge to find that talent.

The commodity business has – or had – a reputation for being male-dominated – is that changing?

Yes, it is. First, companies are under pressure to employ more women. Second, women look at commodities differently than in the past. It is a bit of a snowball effect. More women are applying to the sector because it is becoming less male-dominated. The more women join, the more women want to join. It is self-reinforcing.

There are three “buts”.

The first is that the process will take time. Finding women with the required experience to fill senior roles is sometimes challenging. It will change as women work their way up the ranks.

The second is that women are sometimes less flexible geographically than men. We still have some way to go before it becomes the norm for men to give up a job to follow their partners to another country. Some women may be more reluctant to move countries if it means their children must change schools. It is becoming less so, but men may prioritize their careers while women may prioritize stable family life. Geographic flexibility is essential in our business.

The third follows from the second – women may be more risk averse than men when changing jobs. We had a recent search where a woman was the best candidate by far, but she decided not to take the risk of jumping.

When I joined the business thirty years ago, there were few female traders. That is no longer the case.

What advice would you give to a young person thinking of getting into the agricultural supply chain business – not just trading?

It follows my previous remarks. I would advise them to take every opportunity they get! If you are unsure about taking a new position – for example, if it means moving – do it! If it feels like an opportunity, take it. Nothing is forever. You can usually find your way back if it doesn’t work.

It doesn’t necessarily mean changing companies. If your boss is looking for volunteers for a new position or venture, stick your hand up!

And for someone already in the sector looking to change jobs?

First, identify what makes you stand out and then capitalize on it. Ask yourself what your edge is.

Second, identify any areas of weakness and take measures to improve them, for example, by taking night classes. Never stop learning and never stop asking questions. Continually improve your skills.

What would your 21-year-old self think about what you have done and who you are now?

When I was 21, I never really looked that far ahead. When I started in the business, I never asked myself where I would be in ten years, let alone thirty!

Another way of looking at the question is to ask, “Knowing what I know now, would I have done anything differently?” The answer to that is a solid “No.” I have enjoyed every bit of my career – admittedly, some more than others. Each experience has given me a different point of view and insight. I am lucky.

I have friends who joined Czarnikow at the same time as I did and are still there. They have had fantastic careers and are probably financially better off than me. I could have stayed at Czarnikow, and I would have been happy. But I am glad I didn’t. I liked the variety and the challenges that my career has offered me.

I am not one for looking back and wishing I wish I had done something differently. It’s gone. It’s happened. Move on.

In saying that, I realize I am more of a trader than I thought. Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes. Learn from them and look ahead for new opportunities.

Thank you, Jules, for your time and input.

This conversation is part of the Commodity Professions – The People Behind the Trade series.

© Commodity Conversations ® 2022

Media Monitor

The world is waiting to see if Russia extends the Ukrainian grain export corridor beyond its 19th November expiry date. Russia’s President has accused Ukraine of using the programme to commit terrorist acts. A Russian official said the deal’s extension depended on the West easing Russia’s agricultural and fertiliser exports. The UN is confident the agreement will be extended.

There were market rumours that the Great Odesa ports would soon be blocked because it takes 20-25 days for vessels to be processed and loaded.  A total of 160 ships currently await inspection in Istanbul. Only 14 vessels a day are being inspected, and Russia’s inspectors seem reluctant to speed up the process.

Russia may set a grain export quota at 25.5 mln mt next year, twice that set this year. It will not have a market impact as this year’s grain quota of 11 million mt was not fully used. The country has harvested a record grain crop this year, with wheat production already reaching 104 million mt and total grain output expected to reach 150 million mt.

Despite wet weather and missile attacks, Ukraine’s farmers have sown 2.78 million ha of winter grains, or 58.4 per cent of the planned area. Farmers planted 2.44 million ha of winter wheat or 61.4 per cent of the planned area.

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 10.1 per cent in annual terms in September. Food prices rose by 14.5 per cent, the most significant jump since April 1980.

However, shoppers appear to accept rising prices, with Nestlé and P&G reporting better-than-expected sales.

Nestlé reported an increase in organic sales of 8.5 per cent in the nine months to end-September, driven by higher prices. The company reported exceptionally high sales growth in its coffee businesses. It also announced the acquisition of Seattle’s Best Coffee brand from Starbucks for an undisclosed sum.

Nestlé’s CEO expects inflation to continue into 2023, and the FT warns that shoppers may reduce spending or switch to own-brand goods. Bloomberg agrees, even though the CEO of Mondelez believes the problems lie elsewhere.

In an example of high prices being the best cure for high prices (by bringing in new production), Central Australia is harvesting its first wheat crop in 45 years.

India’s rice farmers are struggling with the country’s water crisis, finding it hard to wean themselves off subsidies. The government “seems to have given up” trying to persuade farmers to grow less water-intensive crops.

New Zealand’s livestock farmers continue to protest the government’s “burp and fart” tax.

In a sign of the future of shipping, a Chinese company has taken delivery of a new supertanker with four large sails that should cut fuel consumption by nearly 10 per cent. Meanwhile, container ship operators are removing capacity and laying up ships as they rationalise their networks in the face of falling demand.

The USDA will write off $1.3 billion in debt for about 36,000 US farmers who have fallen behind on loan payments or face foreclosure. It will fund the programme from the $3.1 billion in the Inflation Reduction Act.

Global fertilizer prices fell further as farmers cut back on their use. Brazil’s fertilizer prices are down by almost half from April’s highs, although they are still above long-term averages.

The Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) has published its (119-page) 2022 Africa Agriculture Status Report that lays out the steps needed to reach zero hunger on the continent. The Africa Centre for Strategic Studies argues that conflict remains the dominant driver of Africa’s food crisis. More than 80 per cent of the record 137 million Africans facing acute food insecurity are in conflict-affected countries.

Climate change poses an “existential threat” to the UK potato industry. The sector is urgently trying to develop new varieties to cope with rising temperatures.

French cereal farmers are experimenting at scale with covering crops with solar panels to produce food and energy simultaneously.

Drought is slowing the seeding of Argentina’s corn crop.

Mississippi River water levels may fall over the next two weeks, further restricting barge traffic. Around 500 mln mt of goods – mainly agricultural products – move along the Mississippi River each year. The Mississippi River Basin produces more than 90 per cent of US agricultural exports and nearly 80 per cent of the world’s grain exports.

Could large-scale seaweed farming help curb climate change?

The FT asks whether the Brazilian presidential election has accelerated deforestation in the Amazon. It also asks if the world can feed itself sustainably. The newspaper presents seven graphs that suggest that providing food to 10 billion people doesn’t have to cost us the Earth.

The Guardian believes food is already costing us the Earth. The latest (60-page) Pesticide Atlas reports that pesticide use has increased by 80 per cent since 1990, responsible for 11,000 human fatalities and the poisoning of 385 million people yearly. It adds that their use caused a 30 per cent fall in populations of field birds and grassland butterflies.

The WWF’s Living Planet Report 2022 (also 60 pages) reveals an (even more alarming) 69 per cent reduction in species populations since 1970. It warns that “we face the double, interlinked emergencies of human-induced climate change and the loss of biodiversity, threatening the well-being of current and future generations.”

The UN FAO celebrated World Food Day on 16th October.  You can watch the (cool) music video here.

Talking of videos, the FT has a 45-minute one that shows “how neoliberal economic thinking has broken our food supply chains.” (Whatever.) It also has a shorter one on organic regenerative farming in the UK.

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