Investing in agriculture

I was invited this week to participate in a Natural Resources Forum on Investing in Agriculture at the London Stock Exchange. Topics ranged along the value chain, from investing in farmland through logistics to consumer trends.

One speaker, an expert on farmland investment, gave three warnings to potential investors:

  • All farms are local and local expertise is essential. The quality of the land can vary from one field to another, as too can microclimates in terms of flooding and frost
  • Prolonged periods of bad weather can throw off even the most conservative revenue predictions.
  • The market for farmland is illiquid; it is easier to buy than to sell.

There was an interesting discussion as to whether  farmers would be able to meet the world’s ever increasing demand for calories. Although, as one participant put it, “they aren’t making farmland anymore”, others warned against  “Malthusian” arguments that food production is limited. Agricultural yields continue to increase and the world has plenty of under-used land. Besides, with 40% of the US corn crop and 50% of the Brazilian cane crop going to ethanol production, extra calories could relatively easily be drawn back from fuel to food.

It was my task to speak about agricultural commodity merchandising and I highlighted the sector’s three structural challenges:

  • Trading margins have disappeared as markets have become transparent and information has become instant
  • The growth of algorithmic trading systems have made it more costly to hedge and harder for fundamental traders to predict future price moves
  • Agricultural merchandising companies are in danger of losing their social license to operate

I argued that at this point in the commodity cycle there is an oversupply of food, an over supply of freight and infrastructure, and an oversupply of agricultural merchandising companies. I explained that we are currently seeing consolidation all along the supply chain as some players merge and others exit.

We then discussed the way that market power has shifted along the supply chain from producers to food manufacturers (brands) to retailers to consumers. This shift presents a number of challenges in terms of brand vulnerability, but also some opportunities if you can identify a trend earlier enough.

One trend that we discussed was the way Californians are now adding butter to coffee. Who would have predicted a few years back that butter would make such a come back?

In their Investment Outlook for 2018, Credit Suisse identified ten priorities for the millennial generation. Number three on the list (after education and affordable housing) was what Credit Suisse called “sustainable consumables”. The bank defined them as, “consumables produced in a socially and environmentally responsible way, taking into consideration the entire supply chain of goods”.

Credit Suisse highlighted “Beyond animal agriculture” as a major component of this trend. It wrote,

According to the United Nations and the Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO), raising animals for food is the primary cause of species extinction, oceanic dead zones, Amazon deforestation, and antibiotic resistance. Moreover, it has a greater impact on climate change than the entire transport sector. Our modern system of animal agriculture is one of immense inefficiencies, externalities and vulnerabilities unable to sustain the predicted doubling of meat demand by 2050, according to FAO.

With such measurable risks, two parallel and disruptive technologies have emerged: plant-based food and cellular agriculture. Today, plant-based varieties of virtually all animal products such as meat, cheese, milk, eggs and fish are sold worldwide. Investment opportunities in the private sector are abundant, as business creation in the space is growing, brands are gaining importance and acquisitions by large consumer corporates are increasing.  

Credit Suisse continues,

To end all forms of malnutrition by 2030 was one of the challenges world leaders laid down when they adopted Sustainable Development Goals at the end of 2015. Nearly 800 million people worldwide remain chronically undernourished, and over 2 billion suffer from micronutrient deficiencies, also known as hidden hunger. Another 2 billion are overweight, with 600 million of these being obese. Meanwhile some 150 million children under 5 years of age are stunted, approximately 50 million children from this same age bracket are undernourished, while some 40 million children are obese. The UN initiated the Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) movement, now counting 60 countries, bringing together governments, civil society, UN bodies, donors, business and scientists. 

Business can contribute and play a significant role in nutrition by addressing food and nutrition across the value chain, providing more affordable, accessible yet sustainable food solutions for many, and we are starting to see initiatives in this direction. Big food companies are already offering products containing important micro nutrients to help combat under-nutrition and deliver on the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Credit Suisse listed blockchain at number six on its list of key millennial trends, and we are already glimpsing the impact that this technology could have on reducing both risks and costs in the supply chain.

Vertical farming (proximity agriculture) was at number seven on Credit Suisse’s list. The bank defines this as “redeveloping urban space to bring agriculture to cities, using techniques such as growing plants in vertically stacked layers, indoor farming or integrating agriculture into existing structure.”

Bringing this all together, it appears now that there is a clear and increasing convergence of interest between investors, consumers, social welfare and the environment. That’s what you get when you empower consumers!

These issues and others will be discussed at our Commodities Conversations event in London’s Natural History Museum on 6th June 2018. Places are limited so register here.

Called out: civil society and agribusiness

 

Towards the end of last year I was having lunch with an old friend in the sugar business when the subject turned to NGOs – Non-Government Organisations – and NFPs – Not-For-Profits. He told me that his daughter worked for a leading international development agency as a specialist in island economies. She had under-spent her budget allocation for the year and her boss was afraid that they would lose it the following year. So he told her to spend it.

Taken aback by the short notice, all she could do was to organize a “fact-finding” mission where she and her colleagues flew out to an island in the Pacific for what was basically a vacation.

I thought of that this week when Oxfam, a leading UK charity, came under fire for alleged malpractice in at least three countries. The British right-wing press jumped on the story, arguing that the UK taxpayer money that helped fund the charity would have been better spent at home.

This media attention is unusual. NGOs (more widely known as “civil society”) are usually considered to be “untouchable”. As my friend had put it at lunch, civil society can criticize businesses and governments, but it is “politically-incorrect” to criticize civil society.

Back in 2013 Oxfam published a damning report—Sugar Rush—on land grabs and human rights abuses in the sugar sector. The report made the headlines at the time and added to prevailing anti-sugar-industry sentiment.

My sugar business friend had been particularly upset by the report. At the time I remembered that he had called it “unfair, ill informed and biased”.

I called him up, expecting him to be pleased that the tables had been turned, and that it was now Oxfam that was under the spotlight. I found him more upset than pleased. He told me that he had been a long-time donator to Oxfam, and he was angry that a small group of employees had so severely damaged the charity’s reputation. “They do great work”, he said. “They need public support to continue that work”.

I reminded him of the Sugar Rush report and his reaction to it. He brushed my comments aside, arguing that everyone needs to be “called out” when they do something wrong, and that “it is charities like Oxfam that keep businesses honest and governments on their toes. They do us a service, not a disservice.”

“So you shouldn’t be upset when Oxfam gets called out for doing something wrong,” I argued. “Someone needs to keep the charities honest,” I added. He reluctantly agreed, and then changed the subject.

After I had hung up, I thought over what he had said. Civil society does have an important—maybe essential—role in “naming and shaming” businesses and sectors that behave badly. Civil society draws bad behaviour to the attention of consumers, leading to consumer boycotts and lost revenues. Civil society acts as the local police force in the business environment, and NGOs are particularly active in the world of agriculture. No one enjoys being criticized, but criticism can and does lead to positive change.

I decided that Oxfam, as well as other charities, should respond positively and constructively to criticism, and to learn from it. And now that criticism of civil society is apparently no longer “politically incorrect”, NGOs will have to get used to it. They must follow the example of business, particularly agricultural business, and improve the way they run themselves.

But I wasn’t happy with that conclusion, so I called my friend back and reminded him again that he had called the Sugar Rush report “unfair, ill informed and biased”.

“Yes I did,” he admitted, “and looking back we should have engaged with Oxfam on it at the time. But I have moved on. I realise now that if the Sugar Rush report was ill informed it was mainly our fault. We should have done a better job at engaging with civil society and our stakeholders to explain what we do, how we do it, and the constraints under which we operate.”

“And are you doing that now?” I asked.

“Not nearly enough. We need to explain that markets are not perfect. No one is perfect, and our sector has to continue to improve what it does in terms of health, human rights and the environment.

“We know that, and we are now working in partnership with the bigger NGOs to make this change happen. Civil society is our ally in this, not our enemy. That’s why I am saddened by this week’s news stories about Oxfam. We need strong allies, not weak ones. And we need civil society to maintain their moral authority in order to promote change.”

The Hidden Life of Trees

Over the holiday period I read The Hidden Life of Trees: What They Feel, How They Communicate―Discoveries from a Secret World. The author, Peter Wohlleben, a forester from Germany, has become an unlikely media star and his book has become a bestseller, and not just among tree-huggers.

Mr Wohllben draws on recent research to argue that trees not only communicate with each other, they also feel pain and help each other out. He writes,

“Beeches, spruce, and oaks all register pain as soon as some creature starts nibbling on them. When a caterpiller takes a hearty bite out of a leaf, the tissue around the site of the damage changes. In addition, the leaf signal sends out electric signals, just as human tissue does when it is hurt.”

When a giraffe starts eating an African acacia tree, the tree releases a chemical into the air that prompts neighbouring trees to pump a toxic chemical into their leaves to make them unpalatable for the giraffes. When attacked by pests, some trees release a chemical that attracts predators that feed on the pest that is attacking the tree.

In a forest the trees communicate with each other through a “wood-wide-web” of soil fungi through which they can also send sugars that can help sustain sick relatives. One such fungus, in Switzerland, covers almost 120 acres of forest and is an estimated at about one thousand years old.

“Another in Oregon is estimated to be 2,400 years old, extends for 2,000 acres, and weighs 660 tons. That makes fungi the largest known living organisms in the world.”

 In a note at the end of the book, forest scientist Dr Suzanne Simard describes how douglas firs can live in synergy with neighbouring birch trees,

“We discovered that the exchange between the two species was dynamic: each took different turns as “mother”, depending on the season…mother trees recognize and talk with their kin, shaping future generations…These discoveries have transformed our understanding of trees from competitive crusaders of the self to members of a connected, related, communicating system.”

But what about agricultural crops, plants grown for food or fibres? Peter Wohlleben writes,

“Thanks to selective breeding, our cultivated plants have, for the most part, lost their ability to communicate above or below ground. Isolated by their silence, they are easy prey for insect pests. That is one reason why modern agriculture uses so many pesticides. Perhaps farmers can learn from the forests and breed a little more wilderness back into their grain and potatoes so that they’ll be more talkative in the future.”

 And in the preface to the English edition, Tim Flannery writes,

“Perhaps the saddest plants of all are those we have enslaved in our agricultural systems…They have lost their ability to communicate and are isolated by their silence.”

All this creates something of a problem. Anyone who watched the wonderful BBC series Blue Planet II last year will know that fish and (particularly) octopus are way more intelligent than we had thought—and way more social. We all knew that that sea mammals were social, but it was a shock to think that other sea animals, including shellfish, can have emotions and feel pain.

Consumers and legislators are already reacting. For example, the Swiss government recently banned boiling live lobsters, arguing that they really do feel pain. Lobsters now have to be “humanely” killed before being cooked.

I know some previously fishing-eating vegetarians who have now given up eating fish—or at least feel guilty when they eat it—after watching Blue Planet II. I am afraid to recommend that they now read The Hidden Life of Trees.

Join the commodity conversation at our seminar in London in June

The value of sustainability standards

In 2015, ISEAL Alliance conducted a survey of over 100 business leaders as to how they perceived the benefits of environmental and social sustainability certification to their businesses.

In terms of the business value of certification, the interviewees referred most frequently to the final benefits of improved reputation (60%), improved profitability (53%), cost reduction (30%), growth in production (30%), and improved supply security (23%)

The survey found that certified businesses found value in:

  • Improved working conditions with positive impacts on worker’s health and livelihood, as well as attention to sustainability in the supply chain
  • Reduced conflicts with local communities
  • Improved performance of (small-scale) producers and improved short and long-term supply security
  • Enhanced sustainable forest and fishery management which contributes to the preservation of the resource and thus long-term supply security.

However, last month Andre de Freitas, the executive director of the Sustainable Agriculture Network (SAN) wrote that it is time to recognize that certification has its limits in agriculture.

Earlier this year his organisation came to the conclusion that although they have seen many positive impacts from certification for workers, producers and the environment, it was not the best way to improve the sustainability of most farmers in the world. SAN took the decision to stop working with certification in agriculture.

Mr de Freitas argues that certification has four main interrelated limitations:

  1. Certification standards are complex. This means that the gap between producers’ reality and what is required by certification is often too wide. Most farmers in the world lack the technical and financial resources to be able to bridge this gap.
  2. Certification can be costly. This pushes certification to higher-end products and developed country markets, which usually can better absorb the increase in the price of raw materials. The author cites coffee as an example: certification can be feasible for the more niche premium products, but not be attractive for the higher volume used in price-sensitive categories. Another example is rice, a staple food in much of the developing world, where certification is virtually nonexistent.
  3. The high complexity and cost hinder the ability to scale up and go beyond low double digits in terms of penetration in a given sector. This is a typical low-hanging fruit situation, where, after an initial period of fast growth, every subsequent increase in uptake becomes more difficult than the previous one.
  4. SAN found that in their experience certification had been shown to have limited effectiveness to deal with some of the more intractable problems in agriculture, such as child labour, poverty, sexual harassment, sanitation, and others.

The author argues that these limitations mean that certification will work for farms that are already reasonably well-managed, have access to resources, have markets that are able to better value their products, and encounter fairly well-functioning local governance structures. He adds that these conditions are very specific and are not the reality most farmers in the world live in.

How we can reconcile these two opposing views was one of the main topics of debate at last week’s Sustainable Sugarcane Forum in London.

One of the biggest challenges highlighted at the event was in getting consumers to pay a premium for certified products.  If consumers refuse to pay a premium, producers have no choice but to recover the cost of certification through the productivity and reputational gains that ISEAL listed in their report. If producers can’t recover their certification costs, then they actually end up worse off financially.

One of the presenters at the event presented a possible solution to this conundrum: an actively traded credits market where industrial food manufacturers, in their efforts to reach their 2020 sustainability goals, buy credits rather than sugar. Credits already provide some limited extra income to producers and this is likely to expand significantly over the next few years.

Having said all that, Bonsucro’s increasing number of certified mills and our expanding membership suggest that stakeholders do find value in certification. There appears to be a real momentum building.

Not only that, but  in discussions with stakeholders at the event, and at other times over the past year,  both producers and consumers have highlighted to me many of the benefits that the 2015 ISEAL survey also highlighted. Of course producers would consumers like to pay a premium for certified product, but even without one, certification is worth it.

But what about SAN’s other criticisms? Many are valid, but you need to remember that voluntary sustainability standards are just one of the tools in the development toolbox. They cannot do everything. They are not the silver bullet that will kill the vampire twins of human rights abuse and environmental degradation. But they do help to keep the monsters at bay.

Presentation to the Sustainable Sugarcane Forum

Good morning ladies and gentlemen—and welcome!

I recently finished reading The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History by the journalist Elizabeth Kolbert. The Guardian newspaper voted it the best non-fiction book of all time. If you haven’t read it already I highly recommend it.

Life has existed on our planet for around four billion years but mass extinctions of flora and fauna have taken place every twenty-six million years or so. There is widespread agreement that a meteor strike caused the fifth mass extinction (of the dinosaurs, amongst others), but geologists disagree as to what caused the others. Perhaps other meteor strikes; perhaps natural climate change.

Pretty much everyone, however, agrees that mankind is the cause of the sixth mass extinction that we are currently living. Geologists call our current era the “Anthropocene”.

The Anthropocene is usually said to have begun with the industrial revolution, or perhaps even later, with the explosive growth in population that followed World War II. However, the evidence suggests that this process of destruction began one hundred and twenty thousand years ago when Homo Sapiens began its migration out of Africa.

We humans destroy biodiversity in three ways:

  1. By eating it
  2. By encroaching on—and stealing—its territory
  3. By accidently transferring alien species or bacteria

By the time I had finished the book I had realized that this process of extinction has been going on for so long now it seems all but inevitable that it will continue. When it is complete the only animals that will be left on the planet will be the ones that we eat—or the ones that we can marvel or laugh at in zoos or on YouTube.

Volatire once said, “Dans une avalanche, aucun flocon ne se sent jamais responsible” – in an avalanche, so single snowflake feels responsible. Ms Kolbert puts it this way,

“If you want to think about why humans are so dangerous to other species, you can picture a poacher in Africa carrying an AK-47 or a logger in the Amazon gripping an axe, or better still, you can picture yourself, holding a book on your lap.”

And in case you believe that it doesn’t matter if the world loses a few elephants, tigers, frogs or bats, “the anthropologist Richard Leaky has warned that Homo Sapiens might not only be the agent of the sixth extinction, but also risks being one of its victims”.

Individually we as humans are all pretty good guys. We don’t want to harm our neighbours or our environment. But we do want to do our best for our families. Unfortunately, “doing the best for our families” might entail chopping down a little bit extra forest to plant some more crops to feed our children; shooting the leopard or tiger that is killing our flocks; using more water from the well; using more pesticide or herbicide that we really need—or simply taking our children out to dinner.

Our individual acts don’t have much impact, but taken together they result in the mass destruction of our biodiversity and the poisoning of our planet.

Individually there is little that we can do about it. We can stop eating meat. We can stop buying water in plastic bottles, or coffee in aluminium capsules. We can fill the kettle with only the amount of water that we need to make our tea. We can take a bus or a bike, rather than the car, to work.

All that helps, of course, but together we humans are such a destructive force—and have been for tens of thousands of years—that it is not enough.

But wait a minute. If together we humans are such a powerful destructive force, maybe together we can also be a powerful constructive force. After all, isn’t working together what is supposed to differentiate us from other animals on this planet?

As Charles Darwin once wrote, “in the long history of humankind, those who learned to collaborate and improvise most effectively have prevailed”.

Although we have been destroying the planet for the past one hundred and twenty thousand years it is not too late to do something about it if we all work together. And I think we can work together.

But what does working together mean for those of us involved with voluntary sustainability standards – those of us in this room?

The International Trade Centre recently published a report called Social and Environmental Standards – From Fragmentation to Coordination. The authors of the report highlighted 239 voluntary standards operating in 90 agricultural markets, many of them over-lapping.

Cocoa producers in Cote d’Ivoire currently contend with up to ten different sustainability standards. Coffee producers in Honduras have nine standards. Tea producers in China have thirteen. Soy producers in Brazil face 21 voluntary standards.

Different buyers use different standards and, in many cases, their own. This leaves suppliers struggling to comply with several voluntary standards at the same time. The associated audit processes can quickly push up costs, both in time and money.

Competition between standards can also result in what could be called “a race to the bottom”, where producers or buyers may be tempted to choose the most lenient standard.

It is a bit tough to ask a farmer to go through a whole new audit process just because he wants to grow soy this year rather than sugarcane. At the same time, too many standards can confuse consumers and undermine their trust in the whole system.

The report’s authors argued that a reduction in the number of voluntary standards would have many benefits. It would (among others):

  • Reduce audit costs, enabling more small-scale producers to become certified.
  • Reduce costs for certifying agencies and consumers through economies of scale
  • Create brand company clarity in marketing

Perhaps most importantly, a reduction in the number of standards would empower certifying organizations to go beyond certification, to focus more on supporting their stakeholders, and to have more impact where it is needed, at smallholder level. It would allow value chain partners to focus more resources on improvement rather than multi-standard compliance.

This is a case where “less is more”. The voluntary standards scheme sector is ripe for change. But how do we get from where we are now to where we want to go?

The report authors suggest that a first step would be to get everyone talking together, and conferences such as this one have an important role to play.

When we talk together, the various standard-setting organizations need to explore ways of aligning standards, audit procedures and management structures. Benchmarking and mutual recognition of standards would be an important part of that process.

Stacked audits to combine key different elements of standards/company specific audits would reduce the reporting burden.

The idea of companies working together would be unthinkable in the commercial sector; we would quickly be hauled up in front of the competition authorities. However standards agencies are mostly non-for-profit organisations. Our goal is not to make a profit, or to increase our share prices. We are not interested in market share; we are interested in “the greater good”.

Working together, whether in the form of partnerships, shared standards, benchmarking or outright mergers should therefore not only be possible, everyone in this room should welcome it.

Thank you. I wish you a successful conference.

Certification and consolidation

Over the past couple of decades, voluntary sustainability standards (VSS) have taken on increasing importance in working to ensure that agriculture, and agricultural supply chains, are environmentally and socially sustainable.

The International Trade Centre, which tracks 465 eco-labels in 199 countries and 25 industries, recently published a report, “Social and Environmental Standards – From Fragmentation to Coordination”. The authors highlighted 239 voluntary standards operating in 90 agricultural markets, many of them over-lapping.

Cocoa producers in Cote d’Ivoire now contend with up to ten different standards. Coffee producers in Honduras have nine standards. Tea producers in China have thirteen. Soy producers in Brazil face 21 voluntary standards.

As the report authors write, different buyers use different standards and, in many cases, their own proprietary, non-transparent auditing scheme. This leaves their suppliers struggling to comply with several voluntary standards at the same time. The associated audit processes can quickly push up costs, both in time and money. Competition between standards can also result in what the authors call “a race to the bottom”, where producers or buyers may be tempted to choose the most lenient standard.

It has been shown that consumers trust eco-labels more than they trust brand sustainability claims. This increasingly translates into a business opportunity, especially with Millennials and Generation Z. However, too many standards can also confuse consumers and undermine their trust in the whole system.

And on the production side, it is a bit tough to ask a farmer to go through a whole new audit process just because he wants to grow soy this year rather than sugarcane.

A reduction in the number of voluntary standards would:

  • Reduce audit costs along the supply chain
  • Enable more small-scale producers to become certified.
  • Empower buyers to ensure that what they source is environmentally and socially sustainable.
  • Give more credibility to the certifying agencies and reduce their costs through economies of scale across different commodities and geographies.
  • Increase transparency and make it easier for civil society to “call out” any bad actors
  • Create brand company clarity in marketing
  • Reduce hidden transaction costs
  • Allow certification organizations to focus more on supporting their stakeholders
  • Allow value chain partners to focus more resources on improvement rather than multi-standard compliance

This is obviously a case of “less is more”. The sector is ripe for consolidation. But how do we get from where we are now to where we want to go?

The report authors suggest that a first step would be to get the various standard-setting organizations to talk with each other to explore ways of aligning standards, audit procedures and management structures.  Benchmarking and mutual recognition of standards would be an important part of that process. Stacked audits to combine key different elements of standards/company specific audits into one audit would reduce the reporting burden.

The authors also suggest that international organizations and conventions could play a key role. They rightly point out that within the sector social sustainability is less fragmented than environmental sustainability. This is largely because most schemes follow the International Labour Organization (ILO) Conventions on child and forced labour, employment, and working conditions. Although there are numerous international conventions on environmental protection, there is less of an international consensus on environmental issues.

The authors therefore suggest the development of core, universally applicable environmental criteria. Companies are increasingly pledging to go deforestation free and this could be expanded to cover key international environmental conventions, as well as the United Nations’ Sustainability Development Goals.

These are all good suggestions.

The idea of companies working together would be unthinkable in the commercial sector; anyone who tried would be hauled up in front of the competition authorities, and accused of forming a cartel. However certification agencies are mostly non-for-profit organisations. Their goals, by definition, are not to make a profit, or to increase their share prices.  Non-for-profits are not interested in market share; they are interested in “the greater good”.

Working together, whether in the form of partnerships, shared standards, benchmarking or outright mergers should therefore not only be possible, it should be welcomed. Working together would help the certification agencies to better achieve their goals, and make the world a better place.

The views expressed in this blog are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Bonsucro.