Trends, Themes and Threats
The agricultural commodity trade is undergoing profound transformations, driven by shifting demographics, technological advancements, and global political dynamics. I recently delivered a talk highlighting some of the most important trends—and the disruptive “trend breakers” poised to reshape the industry. Here are eight of them:
Population Growth is Slowing
World population growth is declining quickly everywhere—except Africa. An ageing population in most regions consumes less and makes different food choices, while Africa remains the only consumer market forecasted to grow strongly. This change prompts difficult questions: can Africa feed itself, or will it increase global food demand?
Security Supercedes Sustainability
In today’s volatile world, food security is becoming a higher priority than food sustainability. State-backed funds are increasing investments in major trading houses such as Olam, LDC, and AgriBrazil. Simultaneously, new regional, often state-owned, trading companies, such as Savola, are emerging. Established giants—the so-called ABCD+ group—are losing market share to these agile competitors. Meanwhile, China is expanding its investment footprint in the African agricultural sector.
The Climate is Changing
Climate change impacts both food security and sustainability equally. Public opinions remain divided: many stay silent, while sceptics persist. Companies are shifting from greenwashing to “green-hushing”—downplaying or concealing their sustainability efforts instead of promoting them.
Agricultural production is moving geographically. Climate change doesn’t necessarily mean less food, but it does mean that food will be produced in different regions than in the past.
Climate change opens up new trade routes, necessitating the development of new ports and specialised types of ships.
Misinformation gathers Momentum
Specialists and scientists in important fields are increasingly marginalised by misinformation and the “Dr Google” phenomenon. This shift endangers the credibility of industry knowledge and public discussion.
The AI revolutionises how we work and what we do.
Artificial intelligence is increasingly shaping the sector, aiming to simplify and adapt analysts’ roles. New insights and efficiencies are achievable for those who adopt these tools.
Futures trading will become even more computerised. Computers trade with computers. May the best algorithms win!
Consumer Tastes are Changing
Consumer behaviour varies worldwide. In Western countries, meat consumption is decreasing, while vegetarians and vegans increasingly avoid ultra-processed products that imitate meat.
A growing backlash against ultra-processed foods—now often linked to obesity and bowel cancer—raises a provocative question: could ultra-processed foods become the “new tobacco” of the 1970s?
Geopolitical Tensions in World Trade
Trade is more politicised than ever, as tariffs and embargos like China’s recent soybean move remind us that food is never just food—it’s about power and politics.
The Democratisation of GLP-1 Drugs
The arrival of more affordable pill-form GLP-1 medications could truly be a game changer, making access more democratic and potentially transforming dietary habits worldwide.
These themes and disruptors are reshaping the landscape of global agricultural commodity markets. Remaining attentive to these signals is vital for everyone involved in the trade, from producers and analysts to policymakers and investors.
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